Can the Democrats Retake the Rust Belt?

In his recent book, “This is the Plan,” former chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party Ben Wikler dates the origins of today’s politics to 2010. That was the year the Tea Party previewed the rise of Trumpism and the year Citizens United opened the floodgates for corporate and billionaire money in U.S. elections. It was also the year a Red Wave “turned the dam to rubble,” in Wikler’s words, as Republicans gained about 700 state legislative seats and six governorships, more than doubling the number of state “trifectas” held by the party. In Wikler’s own state of Wisconsin, the GOP won the governorship — remember Scott Walker? — and both chambers of the state legislature, flipping the state’s blue trifecta red. 

The full consequences of these state wins became apparent as Republicans increased their control of Congress despite losing the national popular vote, thanks to the gerrymandered maps passed by Republican legislators in states like Wisconsin. The legacy of 2010 was also present in Trump’s attempts to pressure local officials in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to help him try to overturn the 2020 presidential election. “Seizing voting machines, shutting down polling places, compromising databases of voter records — all the kinds of plans that Trump officials have salivated over — will go much more smoothly if local leaders play ball,” Wikler notes in his book, with an eye on 2026 and 2028.   

Sixteen years after Republicans vastly outspent their Democratic counterparts on local elections as part of their REDMAP project, Democrats are no longer asleep at the wheel. In a memo last December, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the arm of the party that focuses on state legislatures, announced its plans to target over 500 districts across 27 states. With a fundraising goal of $50 million, these efforts are aided by outside Democratic groups like Forward Majority, which plans to spend $30 million on two dozen must-win legislative races, with a focus on rust belt states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

Local Democrats stand to gain not just from this influx of financial support but from a favorable national political climate that DLCC president Heather Williams compares “to what Republicans took advantage of in 2010.”  

This advantage has been evident in special elections across the country. According to the DLCC, Democrats have flipped dozens of seats since the start of Trump’s second term, most of them in red or purple states. (They also flipped 13 seats in Virginia and five in New Jersey last November). In contrast, Republicans have yet to flip a single seat in the second Trump era. In an analysis of the 42 contested legislative elections since the start of 2025, government relations firm Multistate found that Democrats were running a median of 10.2 points ahead of the 2024 presidential election baseline. “A swing at the current level, sustained through November, would point to a substantial Democratic wave,” the authors conclude. 

But Democrats should be wary of overconfidence. The margins have already tightened and will likely narrow even further by November. Democrats will need an unusually good year to achieve the DLCC’s objective of eight new majorities and seven new trifectas, some of which are in battleground states where the margins remain razor-thin. 

Nowhere is this truer than the Rust Belt. 

The biggest prize for Democrats this year may be Wisconsin, where the party hasn’t regained the executive or a legislative branch since 2010. Crucially, in 2023, the state Supreme Court struck down those GOP maps, paving the way for the competitive districts now in place. Under the current maps, Democrats picked up 10 assembly seats and four Senate seats in 2024, putting them in striking distance of majorities. This year, Democrats will have to defeat at least three Republican incumbents in districts that Johnson rates as toss-ups. According to Marquette University pollster John Johnson, a “trifecta for either party [is] realistically in play.” 

Democrats have somewhat clearer paths to trifectas in Michigan and Pennsylvania, both states with Democratic governors and divided legislatures. In Michigan, Democrats will have to defend their slim majority in the Senate and flip four seats to gain control of the House. In Pennsylvania, a Democratic trifecta will require flipping three seats in the Senate and defending their narrow majority in the House. Both states are also holding gubernatorial elections in which Democratic candidates have an edge. 

As in the rest of the country, voter sentiment in these pivotal Rust Belt states is driven primarily by economic concerns and the broader cost‑of‑living crisis, whether it’s rising grocery prices, public school funding or data centers driving up energy costs. 

“If you care about democracy,” says Wikler, “talk about roads.”