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The Islamists have fled, the transitional government and its Ethiopian allies have reclaimed Mogadishu as Somalia's capital and the prime minister has banned guns and called for peacekeepers. Will the stability last, or will guerrilla warfare and clan violence tear the country apart for another 15 years?

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Despite a brief flirtation with peace, the fighting that has ravaged Somalia in recent days appears likely to continue. The Union of Islamic Courts has advanced to the transitional government's last remaining base of power, Baidoa, where fighting with Ethiopian troops has led to heavy casualties. Update: After finally admitting to its role in the conflict, Ethiopia has bombed two Somalian airports.

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