Worse Cyclones Will Hit East Asia
Climate scientists have found indications that Asian tropical cyclones are not only getting stronger but are also likelier to strike east Asia -- China, Japan and Korea.
NASA Goddard Photo and Video (CC BY 2.0)
By Kieran Cooke, Climate News NetworkThis piece first appeared at Climate News Network.
LONDON — It will be of little comfort to people in the southern and central Philippines repeatedly hit by tropical cyclones over the years, but a new study indicates that storm patterns might be shifting northwards.
The study, by a team of scientists at Seoul National University and other South Korean scientific institutions, looks at tropical cyclone activity across the north-west Pacific between 1977 and 2010.
Researchers found that increasing sea surface temperatures likely due to climate change, together with changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, have led to a significant increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones hitting the east Asia region over the 30-year period.
“Noticeable increases of greenhouse gases over the globe could influence rising sea surface temperature and change large-scale atmospheric circulation in the western North Pacific, which could enhance the intensity of tropical cyclones hitting land over east Asia”, says Professor Chang-Hoi Ho, one of the study’s authors.
Intensity changes
The study, which appears in the journal Environmental Research Letters, analyses five separate sets of data relating to the growth and behaviour of tropical cyclones across the north-west Pacific.
It found that the area of maximum storm intensity had shifted both westward and northward: while the intensity of tropical cyclones had lessened somewhat in areas of south-east Asia it had increased significantly in east Asia – particularly in coastal regions of central China and of Japan and around the Korean peninsula.
The study found that cyclones were tending to build up around the northern Philippines and track along coastal areas from Vietnam northwards, gaining energy along the way.
The researchers say a significant factor behind the alteration in the intensity and direction of tropical cyclones is a change in what’s called the Walker circulation – an ocean-based atmospheric circulation system over the Pacific.
Sea temperature difference
The Walker circulation strengthens as the difference between sea temperatures in the warmer western Pacific and the colder central-eastern Pacific grows more marked: the result is that wind flows associated with the Walker circulation drive tropical cyclones towards the north-eastern coast of Asia, where they reach maximum intensity.
“This change in large-scale climatic fields suggests that the principal region in which many tropical cyclones attain peak intensity during their lifetime might have been translocated”, says the study.
Cyclone Haiyan ravaged a large part of the central coastline of the eastern Philippines. However, the study found that over the 30-year period analysed, tropical cyclone activity in seas off the east Philippines coast had decreased while “the maximum intensity has shifted toward east Asia and intensified landfall intensity.”
That’s bad news for millions of coastal dwellers in central and northern China, Japan and on the Korean peninsula. More catastrophic tropical cyclones will strike east Asia in future than ever before, says the study.
WAIT, BEFORE YOU GO…If you're reading this, you probably already know that non-profit, independent journalism is under threat worldwide. Independent news sites are overshadowed by larger heavily funded mainstream media that inundate us with hype and noise that barely scratch the surface. We believe that our readers deserve to know the full story. Truthdig writers bravely dig beneath the headlines to give you thought-provoking, investigative reporting and analysis that tells you what’s really happening and who’s rolling up their sleeves to do something about it.
Like you, we believe a well-informed public that doesn’t have blind faith in the status quo can help change the world. Your contribution of as little as $5 monthly or $35 annually will make you a groundbreaking member and lays the foundation of our work.
The viral outbreak is threatening to crimp worldwide economic growth and hurt profits and revenue for a wide range of businesses.
Since a pair of crashes left 346 dead, not a single member of the company's board has testified under oath. The public deserves answers.
A new report from the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change finds desertification is destroying the very soil that feeds us.
The administration wants to prevent most migrants from seeking asylum in the U.S. if they pass through another country first.
A new Russian-Chinese alliance threatens to upend the existing world order, argues Rob Jonson of the Institute on New Economic Thinking.
The president's fervently nationalist agenda has not only hurt our closest allies but undermined multilateral efforts to contain China.
There are currently no responses to this article.
Be the first to respond.