Pennsylvania Forecast: Clear Skies, Clinton Victory

Here's the conventional wisdom as of the morning of the Pennsylvania primary: Hillary Clinton is leading in nearly every recent poll and has gained ground in the last few days. The good weather will probably benefit her more than Barack Obama. Unprecedented voter registration is a good sign for Obama, but it probably won't be enough. Of course, this campaign has been anything but conventional.

Here’s the conventional wisdom as of the morning of the Pennsylvania primary: Hillary Clinton is leading in nearly every recent poll and has gained ground in the last few days. The good weather will probably benefit her more than Barack Obama. Unprecedented voter registration is a good sign for Obama, but it probably won’t be enough. Of course, this campaign has been anything but conventional.

Political Insider:

Nearly every poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton on her way to a victory over Sen. Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania primary. We won’t fall into the trap of poll averaging, but will instead list the most recent polls here:

Zogby: Clinton +10

SurveyUSA: Clinton +6

Suffolk: Clinton +10

Quinnipiac: Clinton +7

Strategic Vision: Clinton +7

American Research Group: Clinton +13

MSNBC/McClatchy/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Clinton +5

Public Policy Polling: Obama +3

As in all elections, the results tonight will depend on turnout. In fact, the difference in the polls above are almost entirely on how they predict turnout.

Should Clinton win Pennsylvania by five points or less, it will widely be interpreted as an indication her voters stayed home. If she wins by double digits, it will be due to her supporters flocking to the polls. To reasonably continue her campaign of convincing superdelegates about her electability, Clinton needs a big victory.

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