Nate Silver’s Super Bowl Pick Falls ShortSilver, who writes The New York Times' popular FiveThirtyEight blog, makes his living by predicting events. Oftentimes, he's right, like he was during the 2012 presidential election when he correctly forecast how every state would vote. But even experts are wrong occasionally.
Nate Silver, who writes The New York Times’ popular FiveThirtyEight blog, makes his living by predicting events. Oftentimes, he’s right, like he was during the 2012 presidential election when he correctly forecast how every state would vote (in 2008, he went 49 for 50 … not too shabby, indeed).
But even experts can make bad predictions occasionally, as the data analyst demonstrated in his Super Bowl picks. Last week, Silver forecast that the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks would meet in New Orleans for Super Bowl XLVII. Although the Patriots crushed their opponents, the Houston Texans, the same cannot be said for the Seahawks, who suffered a last-minute loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
In fairness to Silver, Seattle should have won the game. In fact, the team would have prevailed had head coach Pete Carroll not called a timeout just a hair before Matt Bryant’s first field goal kick, which went wide to the right of the goal post. Bryant wouldn’t miss a second time, and the Falcons pulled out the 30-28 victory at home.
But, there are no should haves, could haves, would haves in sports — the Seahawks lost and the Falcons are moving on in the playoffs.
In other predictions that fell flat, Silver said the Patriots would face the Denver Broncos — a team he called one of the top two in the NFL — in the AFC Championship game. That won’t be happening either. The Broncos lost a heartbreaking double-overtime game in Denver to the Baltimore Ravens.
The takeaway from these events? Perhaps this headline from The Atlantic Wire puts it best: “Nate Silver Can Accurately Predict an Election, but Not a Super Bowl.”
— Posted by Tracy Bloom.Wait, before you go…
If you're reading this, you probably already know that non-profit, independent journalism is under threat worldwide. Independent news sites are overshadowed by larger heavily funded mainstream media that inundate us with hype and noise that barely scratch the surface. We believe that our readers deserve to know the full story. Truthdig writers bravely dig beneath the headlines to give you thought-provoking, investigative reporting and analysis that tells you what’s really happening and who’s rolling up their sleeves to do something about it.
Like you, we believe a well-informed public that doesn’t have blind faith in the status quo can help change the world. Your contribution of as little as $5 monthly or $35 annually will make you a groundbreaking member and lays the foundation of our work.Support Truthdig
There are currently no responses to this article.
Be the first to respond.