Two separate polls found that the majority of Israeli Jews, Israeli Arabs and Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza see another intifada on the horizon if negotiations don’t yield progress soon. Seventy percent of Jews surveyed by the Peace Index said they thought a popular uprising would follow Palestine’s anticipated request for U.N. membership, while just over 70 percent of Palestinians said they expected the same without advances in the peace process. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has announced that he’ll ask the General Assembly to recognize Palestine in September, and the majority of the U.N. is expected to support him. As The Guardian points out, however, recognition by the U.N. does not equal statehood. Meanwhile, Israel is holding the line against Abbas’ Fatah/Hamas coalition and the U.S. remains unwilling to split from Israel on fundamental issues related to the conflict. Is another round of violence really the only possible outcome? — KDG

The Guardian:

There is increasing talk of what happens after that, and whether – if nothing much changes on the ground – Palestinians will follow their Arab brothers and sisters and try to force change by their own actions.

Even before September, there may be a rise in activity. Following the Nakba Day protests by Palestinian refugees on the border with Lebanon and the fence between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and Syria, a similar demonstration has been called for this Sunday, June 5, to mark the anniversary of the Six Day War.

There is also another international flotilla of aid ships setting sail towards Gaza later in June.

The Israeli military are preparing for these events by reviewing their response to non-violent actions and how they can contain demonstrations without courting international criticism for heavy-handed suppression. Fourteen people were shot dead on Nakba Day; nine were killed on board the Mavi Mamara exactly a year ago.

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