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Reports

Iran Shows Its Cards

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Posted on Jul 14, 2008
AP photo / Hasan Sarbakhshian

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, far left, sits with officers during a military parade last year.

By Scott Ritter

(Page 2)

Neither the Israeli nor the American (and for that reason, European and Asian) economy would emerge intact from a U.S. attack on Iran. Oil would almost instantly break the $300-per-barrel mark, and because the resulting conflict would more than likely be longer and more violent that most are predicting, there is a good chance oil would top $500 or even more within days or weeks.  Hyperinflation would almost certainly strike every market-based economy, and the markets themselves would collapse under the strain.

The good news is that the military planners in the Pentagon are cognizant of this reality. They know the limitations of American power, and what they can and cannot achieve. When it was uncertain how Iran would respond to a limited attack, either on their nuclear facilities or bases associated with the Revolutionary Guard Command, some planners might have thought that the U.S. could actually pull off a quick and relatively bloodless attack. Now that Iran has made it crystal clear that even a limited U.S. attack would bring about a massive Iranian response, all military planners now understand that any U.S. military attack will have to be massive. Simply put, the United States does not now have the military capacity in the Middle East to launch such a strike, and any redeployment of U.S. forces into the region could not go undetected, either by Iran, which would in turn redeploy its forces, or the rest of the world. Because a U.S. attack against Iran would have such horrific detrimental impact on the entire world, it is hard to imagine the international community remaining mute as American military might is assembled.

Likewise, despite the disposition of Congress to either remain silent on the issue or actively facilitate military action against Iran, it would become increasingly difficult for American lawmakers to ignore the consequences of a military strike on Iran, economically and politically. The same can be said of both major presidential candidates. The decision by Iran to show its hand on how it would respond to any American aggression has cleared the air, so to speak, about what is actually being discussed when one speaks of military action against Iran. In many ways, the Iranian missile tests have made it less likely that there will be a war with Iran, simply because the stakes of any such action are so plainly obvious to all parties involved.

Iran continues, based upon all available intelligence information, to pursue a nuclear program which is exclusively intended for peaceful energy purposes. Any concerns which may exist about the dual-use potential of Iran’s uranium enrichment programs can be mitigated through viable nuclear inspections conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency. IAEA inspections should be improved upon by getting Iran to go along with an additional inspection protocol, rather than pursuing military action which will destroy the inspection process and remove the very verification processes which provide the international community with the confidence that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program.

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The reality is that Iran’s nuclear program is here to stay. Iran has every right under international law to pursue this program, and regional and global tensions would be greatly reduced (along with the price of oil) if American policies, and in related fashion U.N. Security Council mandates, were adjusted accordingly. Israeli paranoia—derived not so much from any genuine Iranian threat but rather an affront to Israeli nuclear hegemony in the Middle East—must in turn be subdued. This can be done through a mixture of international pressure designed to punish Israel diplomatically and economically for any failure to adhere to international norms when it comes to peaceful coexistence with its neighbors, and international assurances that Israel’s sovereignty and viability as a nation-state will forever be respected and defended.

Of course, there can be no meaningful international pressure brought to bear on Israel without American participation, and herein lies the crux of the problem. Until the U.S. Congress segregates legitimate national security concerns from narrow Israeli-only issues, the pro-Israel lobby will have considerable control over American national security policy. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s continued push for congressional action concerning the implementation of what is tantamount to a naval blockade of Iran (and as such, an act of war) by pushing House Resolution 362 and Senate Resolution 580 is mind-boggling given the reality of the situation. Congress must stop talking blockade, and start discussing stability and confidence-building measures.
There has never been a more pressing time than now for Congress to conduct serious hearings on U.S. policy toward Iran. Such hearings must not replicate the rubber-stamp hearings held by the U.S. Senate and House in the summer of 2002. Those hearings were simply a facilitating vehicle for war with Iraq. New hearings must expand the body of witnesses beyond administration officials and those who would mirror their policy positions, and include experts and specialists who could articulate a counter point of view, exposing Congress to information and analysis that might prompt a fuller debate. This is the last thing AIPAC and the Bush administration want to see. But it is the one thing the American people should be demanding.

Only an irrational person or organization could continue to discuss as viable a military strike against Iran. Sadly, based upon past and current policy articulations, neither AIPAC nor the Bush administration can be considered rational when it comes to the issue of Iran. It is up to the American people, through their elected representatives in Congress, to inject a modicum of sanity into a situation that continues to be in danger of spinning out of control.

Scott Ritter was a U.N. weapons inspector in Iraq from 1991 to 1998. He is the author of “Target Iran” (Nation Books, 2007).


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By Howard, July 15, 2008 at 12:24 pm Link to this comment

RIGHT ON LEFTY !

On the mark, man !!

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By samosamo, July 15, 2008 at 11:52 am Link to this comment

By madison ford, July 15 at 11:03 am #

You are hopeless. Unless you prove who your favorite possessors of Jerusalem kicked off the property to think that they are the sole possessors then you’re just jackin off the mule. Take it back take it back to the advent of agriculture, you know, just 10,000-12,000 years ago, no make it 50,000 years ago, I want to know who lived on the land. Who held the goddamn property???
Other than that you are a disruptor of this site and don’t deserve the time of day.

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By Mark McKinnon, July 15, 2008 at 11:50 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Fools fighting over whose religion came first or who “should” be supported miss the point.  Israel is the worst country in the world and have demonstrated they care only about themselves.  Hopefully, Iran will have the time to hit first and bomb the crap out of them and their nukes until the last one dies.  Maybe then we’ll have a chance at peace.  Give the Middle East back to the Muslims and Arabs and leave them alone.

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By John McCarthy, July 15, 2008 at 11:45 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

No one has ever asked Rumsfeld or any of his financial wizzards what the hell they were doing with $2.3 Trillion (in cash) in the first place!

Of course, all the evidence went up in smoke when the Pentagon conveniently blew up the offices where all of the financial records were kept and being investigated by the US Navy…..on 9.11.01

Toooooo convenient.  This brings us full circle to the homicide investigators first question in a mass murder case…..Cui Bono?

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By madison ford, July 15, 2008 at 11:03 am Link to this comment

felicity, you digress.

samosamo, before muslims came on the scene circa 800 - 1200 A.D., they were spread over much of the same areas they are now—modern Turkey, Iran (formerly Persia), Jordan.

The argument is over whether Islam has a claim to Jerusalem as a holy city. And Israel says, No, Jerusalem was holy to Judaism thousands of years before Islam was even a though.

Jerusalem is never once mentioned in the Koran. Never once.

What it comes down to is this: the grocer, the butcher, the pharmacist, the policeman, the physicians of Israel—these are the people who have the older religion. King David preceded Muhammad by thousands of years.

Thousands.

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By JimM, July 15, 2008 at 10:44 am Link to this comment

Bush’s version in Iran, Im a dinner jacket, is also totally wacked. he called Israel a ‘rotting corpse’ which needs to be ‘wiped off the map.’ Now, if the Israelis are paranoid and fearful over these comments, who can blame them.

Instead of trying to make peace, a midge-brain like him just makes things worse-as do all who are so quick to roundly and absolutely condemn any nation-this gives them no hope or expectation of change.

We should negotiate with our ‘enemies’ , as a sign of strength instead of perceived weakness.

This is a world of five year olds who call each other names and then go about fencing off their borders and kill each other with abandon.
If I could go to another planet, I would.

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By felicity, July 15, 2008 at 10:23 am Link to this comment

Madison - rather like there never was a nation Indian?  Was that why we felt justified in putting them all on reservations?  I’ve often wondered.

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By Ali Mostofi, July 15, 2008 at 10:10 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Why does someone as knowledgeable and SR, not differentiate between the Seyyeds, IRGC, and the true Iranians.

In case you do not know what a “true Iranian” is, here is a simple definition.  We put Iran first.  They don’t.  They are motivated by their own cause.

So I hope that future writers recognise that true Iranian have recognised these Seyyeds and their military wing the IRGC, and abstained en-masse in their own selection process.

So the people of Iran have actually won, in cultural terms the war against the Seyyeds.  The fact that they control the machinery of state is another campaign, that is being created non-violently by the various opposition groups.

Finally do us civilized Iranians, who look at the Nowrooz culture of Iran, a favour.  Mention these aliens, as a “regime”.  That way you are not helping them in any way.  By associating them with Iran, you are giving them undue credit.

Give credit to the real Iranians whose roots stem from the likes of Zoroaster and Cyrus the Great, and are motivated by the Spirit as enshrined in our book called the Zend Avesta.

There is a very simple method for removing the Seyyeds in Iran.  Non violence and General Strikes must be encouraged by all in the world, in their support for the people of Iran.  The Seyyeds know that their hands are tied, if the people of Iran did not “bake bread” for them.

What a lot of you folks do not realise, is that the Iranian people celebrate Nowrooz more than anything else.  Apathy towards Islam is so strong that the Mullah dare not walk alone.

But what we need most are articles that show how people can non violently approach such a violent dogma.  The Iranian Spirit as in The Zend Avesta and later in the Shahnameh has the hearts and minds of Iranians, who love life and celebrate it every year, especially so in defiance of the Seyyeds.

Please leave it to us to clean our house ourselves, and not use Iran as a tool to show anti Americanism or anti Israelism.  Help Iranians help themselves with peaceful means.

http://www.avesta.org/ka/ka_part1.htm#ashem

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By samosamo, July 15, 2008 at 9:35 am Link to this comment

madison ford, July 15 at 2:59 am #

Then what were the muslims before the advent of islam? Were they a bunch of lost fools running around bumping into things or part of the christians, jews, catholics or who? Where do any and all of these organized religions come from and by god, don’t even consider the arguement that god gave it to them, any of them.
Probably one of the most fasinating aspects of the evolution of human’s religiosity is exactly when and where it all started out and came together in groups. And the whole idea of religion is to try and explain why anything is anything, anything is here, anything someone or some thing can detect and react to anything in this universe which begat the ruse to use religion as a form of mind control and loyalty to a particular belief. In the end it is nothing more than who can kick the hell out of the other and claim what is really nobody’s stuff.
When I started to delve into the what was out there instead of all these basically commercial religious groups with fantastic ideas of dominance and control there came a point where I thought about native indigenous peoples. Reading into the North American natives and their spirituality which appears to the the best type of a religious concept for me, I came across several references of the jews/izraelis claims the two religions were similar or the the native americans were like the jewish ideology. Reading further, I could not help but to realize ‘what a plate of grease and load of crap’ that was. I do think judism is a pragmatic a religion might be.
So if you want to go on with believing the jews OR christians have a first claim on anything go to the claims and deed department and bring out the titles.

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By madison ford, July 15, 2008 at 9:20 am Link to this comment

Felicity, I think we’re agreeing w/o realizing it. I thought Sharon’s act at the wall was unnecessary and provocative. He knew what it would do.

But, in terms of the historical context, how are you—I’m talking about Palestinians here—going to assert that Jews have no place there? Um, I don’t see any Canaanites around. Now, that would be something to see—Canaan coming back! After 4000 years of oblivion. Like Israel has.

So, no, I don’t think of it as a I-was-here-first sort of way, but history definitely shows—unlike Mahmoud Im-a-Dinner-Jacket would have you believe, history definitely shows that there was a nation of Israel once before.

There never has been a nation Palestine. Never.

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By Paul Atreides, July 15, 2008 at 9:13 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

To our friend DuncanIdaho: 
  You have been too deeply immersed in your own “spice” - Mu’Ad D’ib would be astonished at your ranting like a Benegesserit on steroids.  Can you no longer discuss reality without tossing your F bombs? There is a cure for that:  Prozac.  Get some FAST !!
You’ve lost your grip.

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By cyrena, July 15, 2008 at 8:23 am Link to this comment

Great piece from Scott as usual. Except…

“..Such Israeli involvement is highly unlikely, since to do so in any meaningful fashion Israel would need to fly in Iraqi air space, a violation of sovereignty the Iraqi government will never tolerate…”

This seems to be a little bit of fluff from reality. Since when has the US OR Israel given a damn about the sovereignty of any other nation in the Middle East?  Does he really believe THAT would stop them? And what, pray tell, could the Iraqi government do about it even if they wouldn’t ‘tolerate’ it? They don’t have any airplanes or other equipment to strike back at them. Scott’s acting like Iraq has a military. We busted that up in early 2003, or at least what was left of it.

Iraq USED to have a powerful military. Eight years of wars on Iran and a few other folks pretty much wore that down. Whatever was left, the US wiped out as soon as they invaded. So issues of sovereignty have never been respected by Israel before, and there’s nothing to stop them, (at least not from the Iraqi government). So, this part doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

The rest does though.

•  “…IAEA inspections should be improved upon by getting Iran to go along with an additional inspection protocol…”

Excellent idea..especially since it’s highly likely that the Iranians would be amiable to this.

•  “…Israeli paranoia—derived not so much from any genuine Iranian threat but rather an affront to Israeli nuclear hegemony in the Middle East—must in turn be subdued. This can be done through a mixture of international pressure designed to punish Israel diplomatically and economically for any failure to adhere to international norms when it comes to peaceful coexistence with its neighbors, and international assurances that Israel’s sovereignty and viability as a nation-state will forever be respected and defended…”

I certainly agree wholeheartedly with this, although I don’t know if its manageable. Israel (or at least it’s government and party leadership) has never shown any indication of wanting to get along with it’s neighbors and/or dropping the unreasonable paranoia. It would be great if they could, but I don’t know.

“..The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s continued push for congressional action concerning the implementation of what is tantamount to a naval blockade of Iran (and as such, an act of war) by pushing House Resolution 362 and Senate Resolution 580 is mind-boggling given the reality of the situation…”

That’s exactly what I’m talking about. It IS mind-boggling..GIVEN THE REALITY OF THE SITUATION. It’s total insanity!!! And yet, they’re still pushing it. The fact that they even initiated it, under the reality of the situation, is the same as pushing legislation for a suicide mission for the world.  So why would they do that? Well, either they are unaware of this reality, or they don’t care. As scary as that is, it’s very possible, because it means that making them aware of the reality won’t necessarily help. Insane people reject reality all day, every day.

One can simply read many of the comments at truthdig for proof of that.

•  “…Only an irrational person or organization could continue to discuss as viable a military strike against Iran.”

That’s what I just said. And that applies to the crazies who have initiated the bills in Congress to begin with.

But, it’s not a ‘new’ idea. The Dick Bush thugs have been planning this long before AIPAC decided to launch their own little Congressional action, and obviously with the blessing of the dual citizen members. (Joey LIEberman et al)  So, they’re all insane as well. They (the thugs) also think they can strike Iran with their original authorization for Iraq, and technically, the language of that authorization allows for it. All they have to do is that that Iran has ‘terrorists’ in Iraq. And, how long have they been claiming that?

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By felicity, July 15, 2008 at 7:26 am Link to this comment

Madison - I fail to see how desecrating a site holy to those of a religion other than yours based on ‘we-were-here-first’ has any merit or furthers your own holiness.  (I’m reminded of when Sharon, shortly after he was elected, accompanied by hundreds of Israeli military and police marched on Jerusalem’s Temple Mount, a site, next to Mecca and Medina most holy in Islam. What, other than provoking millions of Muslims to avenge the act, did he accomplish.)

Let the religions battle each other - in the meantime let’s get on with creating an equitable political, social and economic solution for that beleaguered land.

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By george :^), July 15, 2008 at 3:46 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

If Bush fails,the Obama Democrats will not fail in attacking Iran.Simple—My Dear Watson,Both parties are controled by Israel firsters.
Why would Iran issue an actual photo of three missiles going off and one on stand-by? USi media did the photo shop capper—my Dear Watson.
Got amount check this video
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/368.html
sad,the obvious,did you catch that the Democrats are accompluses in killings.Bush could not have had planned and funded the 911 attacks in 8 months in office.$2.3 trillion missing from the military budjet in 2002. I bet that was a payoff for a well good fleecing job done on Americans. Hope Israel chokes on this bundle of cash.

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By madison ford, July 15, 2008 at 2:59 am Link to this comment

Man, so many of you to reply to. First, felicity, I agree with you that the Canaanites were there BEFORE the Israelites, but the Israelites took it by force. Piece by piece. And King David moved the capitol from Hebron to Jerusalem.

As for you, samosamo, what I am trying to tell you is that Islamic claims on Jerusalem are invalid. Islam wasn’t even a religion 500 years after Christ. Jerusalem has been sacred to the Jews thousands of years before it became “holy” to Muslims.

Didn’t forget about you, beerdoctor. But you lost me at Chomsky. I’m a Democrat but I’m not THAT left-wing. Sheesh.

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By Nissar Ahmed A. Naik, July 15, 2008 at 1:29 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Madison,

History says the whole of India was first inhabited by the Dravidians. Later on the Aryans invaded India from the North West. They occupied the north of India and pushed the Dravidians to the south.

But today the Dravidians of the south do not harbor the stupid notion of recapturing the north “because they were there first.” They will surely dismiss it as insane an unjust. Surely they deserve credit for being saner than the Zionists!

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By Langx, July 15, 2008 at 12:53 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

By bg1, July 14 at 7:27 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

“to pursue a nuclear program which is exclusively intended for peaceful energy purposes”

Are you sure?  How much are you willing to bet on it?

————————————————————————————
After Iraq, We Don’t Torture, Secret Prisons, Lying about Pat Tillman, the out right murder of thousands of Iraqis why would you trust anything coming form your government.

I mean anything. Sucker.

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By Langx, July 15, 2008 at 12:51 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

By bg1, July 14 at 7:27 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

“to pursue a nuclear program which is exclusively intended for peaceful energy purposes”

Are you sure?  How much are you willing to bet on it?

————————————————————————————
How much would you be willing to bet that Saddam had weapons. I was willing to bet he didn’t. Iran has not attacked another country in decades. They are fighting the new Fourth Reich. After 9/11 they helped us. but like the oil snakeman Bush is he turned on them.

The United States of Fascism. 

They need those weapons to stop the modern day Hitler.

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By Marc Schlee, July 14, 2008 at 11:56 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

We can stop the lies.

FREE AMERICA

DIRECT DEMOCRACY

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By alex, July 14, 2008 at 11:22 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

If you want to know one nation you must look the history of that nation.
Iran newer invade another country.Only defend the invasion by Saddam.
Iranian president newer said israel will be destroyed by Iran,missinterpretation deliberately to create news to sell newspapers and more profit to CNN sponsored by WAR ENDUSTRY and MOSSAD.
What about Hillary’s threat?
Iran is not Iraq &  invasion it will be war in every front including every Iranian man all around world would be walking missile to strike any time any place,oil fields would be destroyed that’s for sure and end of the day no oil for Americans.

All you need to do just sit down with Iranians and talk then you will see they are very resnable people.But this is to much to ask the the cowboy from Mexico.

Trouble is how can you exsplaine this for six year old boy.

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By bg1, July 14, 2008 at 7:45 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

The immediate benefit to Iran of all of its saber rattling is that it rattles the oil markets, thereby jacking up the price of oil and thereby bringing in more money.  The Iranians are not stupid; they realize full well what would happen to them if they pulled something serious against the US or its allies.

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By Aaron Aarons, July 14, 2008 at 7:41 pm Link to this comment

The holocaust that Iraq has suffered at the hands of the U.S. would not have happened if Iraq had possessed a few nuclear-armed missiles that could hit Israel. Even a bunch of non-nuclear missiles could have been a deterrent to any attack. But Saddam followed Scott Ritter’s bad counsel of going along with “U.N.”-ordered disarmament and inspections, and so Iraq had no deterrent to stop any attack or invasion.

Counties like Iraq, Iran, and, especially, leftist governments and movements need a way to deter imperialist attack if they don’t want to be vassals or serfs of the U.S.-Israeli Axis. An alternative, and politically more “correct”, deterrent would be to have people in place who could retaliate against imperialist attack with “surgical strikes” against imperialist politicians, diplomats and capitalists. Unfortunately, the (probably false-flag) 9-11 attacks have been used with some success to give “terrorism” a bad name. Hopefully, that propaganda coup for the bad guys can be overcome by reminding the less servile elements of the population that there is a vast difference between terror against ordinary people and counter-terror against the oppressors.

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By bg1, July 14, 2008 at 7:27 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

“to pursue a nuclear program which is exclusively intended for peaceful energy purposes”

Are you sure?  How much are you willing to bet on it?

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By Tony B, July 14, 2008 at 4:58 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

I suspect that the Cheney cabal sees our nuclear arsenal being wasted by not being in play. Surely the US would use nuclear weapons to force Iran to surrender rather than allow the scenarios to unfold as described. We also assume that Iran did not already buy a nuclear device on the black market.

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PatrickHenry's avatar

By PatrickHenry, July 14, 2008 at 4:56 pm Link to this comment

I believe if Iran is attacked by Israel and later the U.S. (in response to Iran retaliating against Israel), Iran will fare well.

Belligerant nations get bitch slapped from time to time by karma to let the world know god really does exist.

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By jackpine savage, July 14, 2008 at 3:33 pm Link to this comment

This week’s copy of the Economist arrived today, replete with a screen capture of the Iranian missile launch that made such news this week.  Though i picked up a slight ability to read Arabic in university, i can’t verify the text…though i can’t imagine that the photo is not from the Iranian state news agency.

Anyway, the picture only shows three missiles being launched, which makes me question the hubbaloo over the photo shopping.  If the launch was recorded live, it seems odd that the Iranians would photoshop the still images.

Which raises the question: who would benefit from the photoshop hackery?

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By heavyrunner, July 14, 2008 at 3:21 pm Link to this comment

I have read that Iran possesses Exocet (remember the Falklands war?), Sunburn and SS-NX-26 Yakhonts anti ship cruise missiles for which there really is no dependable defense.

Our Navy will be a sitting duck in the Persian gulf.

Yakhonts flies at Mach 2.9 4 meters above the surface of the sea, making them invisible to radar and other electronic detection.  In daylight they become visible 3 seconds before impact.  At night - well, you know about them when your ship explodes.

For some reason everyone talks about the ballistic missiles, but no one mentions the very serious threat of the cruise missiles.

We could lose 30,000 sailors in a matter of hours and two aircraft carriers.  Those missiles are Russian made and have very sophisticated guidance systems.

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By troublesum, July 14, 2008 at 2:31 pm Link to this comment

Remember - Bush believes that Armageddon must come in the Middle East before the Rapture.  “Bring it on”.

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Blackspeare's avatar

By Blackspeare, July 14, 2008 at 1:56 pm Link to this comment

If we continue to dwell on the negative aspects of war, then we would never go to war and what kind of a world would that be——Jeez!

While it is true that a battle plan never survives the first engagement with the enemy we do learn something from the failure that will be applied in future military operations.  I hate to rehash Iraq, but if Bremer had allowed the Iraqi military and police too remain intact——things would be a lot different there now and much to the better.

it is well known to military intelligence that Iran is a paper tiger.  Their army is poorly equipped and led.  In spite of their display of missiles they lack control and guidance systems that make such missiles effective.  All Iran can do is aim it’s missiles on a trajectory and hope for the best——very similar to a SCUD rocket.

Military analyst know that when war is inevitable you always strike first before an enemy can strengthen its defenses and forces.  A properly planned and executed massive first strike will leave Iran powerless and in the lurch because a strong MEK assault will foment a revolt and topple the reigning Mullahs who, no doubt, will flee to Sudan.  Persia today has very young population and they are restless and ready for a new beginning and a more enlightened regime which can only be inspired through the US/Israeli ME hegemony

Also, there are several Arab countries that wouldn’t mind seeing Iran and it’s political influence and aspirations eliminated——Allah-u-Akbar.

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By Mike, July 14, 2008 at 1:41 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

The Israeli and the United States Governments, both with powerful nuclear arsenals and self-righteous pretensions to have the right to attack anyone anywhere over perceived threats to “National Security”, have made it clear that they want to attack Iran on the grounds that Iran is a serious nuclear and regional threat.

Meanwhile, Iran has never even invaded anybody in its entire modern history, its supreme leader continues to issues Fatwas against the use of nuclear weapons, and the IAEA has yet to find any evidence of a viable nuclear weapons program. On top of that, America’s own intelligence agencies recently said as much too, that there is no evidence of an active nuclear weapons program.

Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi propaganda minister said “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.” This is exactly the maxim being adopted by Israeli leaders who are spreading lies, disinformation and half-truths about Iran in order to get the madman in Washington D.C. and his gang of neocons and war criminals to attack another Muslim country on Israel’s behalf.

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By JimM, July 14, 2008 at 11:59 am Link to this comment

Mr. Ritter please address the issue of the doctored photos. If Iran can “rain down” missles, then why do they need to doctor the pictures of them?

I dont want your excellent credibility to suffer over this issue.

Pres Cheney is going to do what he is going to do, there is too much profit to be made by his going to war on our behalf.

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thebeerdoctor's avatar

By thebeerdoctor, July 14, 2008 at 11:58 am Link to this comment

Blessings to felicity for pointing out that those who call to arms in the name of the historical record, are not accurate by any stretch of their own deluded imagination.

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By M Alem, July 14, 2008 at 11:55 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

I feel Scott Ritter is overstating his case regarding consequence of war with Iran. I am not advocating that we should start a war with Iran but I would like everyone to consider the following:

The USA has the power to erase Iran from the world map if it decides to. This is a fact everyone is ignoring. If we attack Iran with all our might, Iran can do nothing. The point is to overwhelm them. Whether politicians have the stomach to do that is a different question.

There are many who believe that handling the Shiite reaction in Iraq to a military action against Iran will be a major challenge for us. I feel this is unfounded, as after the initial outrage, Shiites in Iraq will realize the futility of siding with Tehran.

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By Tony, July 14, 2008 at 11:53 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi propaganda minister said “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.” This is exactly the maxim being adopted by Israeli leaders who are spreading lies, disinformation and half-truths about Iran in order to get the madman in Washington D.C. and his gang of neocons and war criminals to attack another Muslim country on Israel’s behalf.

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By writeon, July 14, 2008 at 11:24 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

There’s an assumption that the Iranian leadership is “insane” and willing to commit national suicide by launching an attack on Israel with atomic weapons.

How likely is this really? An attack on Israel would almost certainly result in massive and devastating counter-attack on Iran and the levelling of its cities. Would even an “insane” Iranian leadership really sacrifice millions of Iranians and thousands of years of history and civilization for the dubious “honour” of attacking Israel? It’s not as if they would be around to “enjoy” the “fruits” of their historic sacrifice is it?

I think it’s important not to get caught up in the prevailing wartime propaganda we seem to be moving towards. WW111 is too important to start on a whim.

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By felicity, July 14, 2008 at 10:23 am Link to this comment

Madison Ford @July 14, 8:am.  According to Jewish history, the Jews weren’t ‘there’ (ancient Palestine) first, the Canaanites were.  Some accounts say in 2000 BC, some in 5000 BC the descendants of Abraham migrated from Ur (south-west Iraq) to the Land of the Canaanites.

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By thebeerdoctor, July 14, 2008 at 10:05 am Link to this comment

Thank you DuncanIdaho for pointing out what is obvious, but Iobviously forgot. Peace.

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By SteveL, July 14, 2008 at 9:56 am Link to this comment

The missile photos were fake.  Now you can dismiss the whole thing as a lie or pick and chose the parts that were not lies.  Good luck.

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By thebeerdoctor, July 14, 2008 at 9:43 am Link to this comment

Obviously Madison Ford you know nothing about me and what I write on Truth Dig. If you did, you would know that I am a beer consultant, that does not write anything while imbibing good beer. It is not very pleasant to read someone that thinks that the 1990’s deals to the Palestinians, via Yasser Arafat, was some kind of liberal largess on the part of the benevolent Israelis. Perhaps you have never read what Professor Noam Chomsky said about that deal. Oh I know, you will claim he is a self-hating Jew, just like Professor Norman Finkelstein. Perhaps you should call upon Alan Dershowitz to reinforce your opinion.

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By samosamo, July 14, 2008 at 9:06 am Link to this comment

By madison ford, July 14 at 8:10 am #

‘The Jews were there first anyway.’

Where they were the first anywhere. Is this the beginning of time and the the world? Are you a creationist. How do you know all this?
I am angry that jews or anybody considers themselve ‘gods chosen people’ as if they or any group are set up to be the ‘decider’ for everybody else. And the jews in germany were and are not the only places they have been persecuted beyond belief but neither are they the only ones who have been persecuted beyond belief. And I will say this about those few izraeli jews and what other fundamentalist or radical jews that are behind all this madness, I can see why they have been set upon by so many different peoples if their coniviving and manipulation of the U.S. is any indication of their meddling in countries affairs. They are FAR FAR from an innocent and ‘chosen’ people and like any group, state, race or set of people there are going to be the bad apples and it should be the good apples that controls the bad.
And I believe the corporate media monopoly in d.c. are the strongest and most influencial bribers in this country.

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By Gabriel, July 14, 2008 at 9:02 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Wake up people!!! If the U.S. government hadn’t inserted the shah into power, Iran wouldn’t have nuclear technology. As far as Israel is concerned, they should not even be a state!!!! I’m sure the money counters offered up lots of cash to get back the lands they lost so long ago.

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By Ivan Hentschel, July 14, 2008 at 8:45 am Link to this comment
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For weeks and months, the US and Israel have been taunting Iran, looking for an excuse to blow up their nuclear facilties (among other things). We have been out in the schoolyard, yelling,‘I’ll show you mine if you’ll show me yours”, and THEY DID! So no one should be surprised.

The next step however, as many have been pointing out for weeks, as well, is insane and beyond stupidity (where Dick Cheney lives).

In a world that is supposed to be governed by adults, the unlimited capacity for acting infantile is just amazing. The lunatics are indeed running the asylum.

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By Cecil Green, July 14, 2008 at 8:35 am Link to this comment

Madison, which countries can violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty without worrying you? I know the U.S. is one… Israel… Oh, wait; they never signed it, and have plenty of nukes on-hand!

If Iran had a nuke and REALLY wanted to use it, they’d lob it at Israel and Israel would retaliate by firing nukes of their own. They have over a hundred to try, and can defend themselves quite well. Of course, they’d be defending Palestinians as well, so maybe they would hesitate considering that the Zionists in-charge would probably rather rid the world of Palestinians than defend them by proxy.

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By madison ford, July 14, 2008 at 8:10 am Link to this comment

Beerdoctor, first let’s get one thing straight. If you had paid attention to my post, I said I already know the president of Iran doesn’t have the last word. The mullahs do. I already knew that.

Secondly, you can label Israel an apartheid state. You’re entitled to your opinion. But this is not the same as South Africa. In the 90s, Arafat was offered the most liberal package of incentives and concessions ever made, but instead he chose the Intifada, in which hundreds of innocents on both sides died needlessly.

Apartheid? Israel occupies an area in the Middle East that’s equivalent to a postage stamp on a football field. Interesting, though, how none of the neighboring countries—Jordan, for instance—have ever been interested in helping out their Palestinian brothers.

The Jews were there first anyway.

Thousands of years before Muhammad, there was King Solomon.

DO YOU HISTORY AND GET OFF THE BARLEY AND HOPS.

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By lani, July 14, 2008 at 7:56 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Thanks again Scott for your intelligent straight talk. You have been predicting this attack for several years. I hope and pray that something prevents the insane people running our government from jumping over the abyss.

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By felicity, July 14, 2008 at 7:51 am Link to this comment

‘Armchair warriors, pundits and blustering politicians,’ President Eisenhower had some advice for your type, “When people talk about preventive war, tell them to go fight it.”

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By samosamo, July 14, 2008 at 7:44 am Link to this comment

So it comes down to it, and those goddamn izraelis are at the heart of it with their paranoia. To them, it gives them the right to subject eveybody else on this planet to even bigger amounts of misery just for a few sorry ass warmongers from a nation of supposedly ‘god’s chosen children’.(exactly why I cannot stand organized religion) I know and like too many people who are jewish to put a blanket dislike for jews but I sure wish the good will replace the bad in izrael and ease the tensions here. I think that is a very important part of cooling off on this stupidly criminal idea.
Tell you Scott, I sure hope you are wrong about this attack that will happen but I have read enough of your works to know that if anyone has real knowledge of a situation, it is you. You and Chalmers Johnson, but because the two of you and some others are rational, you will be ignored or lamblasted as being for the ‘terrorists’ for both of your speaking out and trying to raise the people’s attention to a very serious catastrophe about to take place because of fools/criminals that have gained the upper hand in governments

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By skulz fontaine, July 14, 2008 at 7:26 am Link to this comment

Mr. Ritter is dead on correct. Sadly, the lunatic fringe at the controls of U.S. government will do the insane. Logic, reason, and moral function are beyond the grasp of the Bush/Cheney regime and our world is doomed. BushCo. will attack Iran and Armageddon will have been ever so graciously delivered to our children. Bush is after all, one of those Ana-Methodist End Timers and hastening the ‘day of the Lard’ is and always has been, one of Bush’s prime objectives. Jebus ain’t capable of bringing on the ‘End Times’ by His lonesome. America’s founding fathers separated “church and state” for a good reason. George Bush and his cotillion of crazies, are THAT very reason. The Bushistas WILL attack Iran and they’ll do it because Israel wants the Bushistas to do just that. Short of a blood-drenched uprising of ‘we the people’, there seems no reasonable way out of one damnable predicament. Oh yeah and, the government of Israel sucks larger than the government of the grand old U.S. of genocidal A..

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By thebeerdoctor, July 14, 2008 at 6:38 am Link to this comment

Madison Ford, your comments reveal how very little you know about the complexities of the Middle East. First off, the President of Iran is NOT in charge of the Iranian military. Perhaps you should go to the BBC world news web site and find out how the power structure works in that theocratic state. Secondly, your assertion of Israel as a democratic state, totally denies the apartheid aspects of their occupation on stolen land. Yes it is a democracy for the chosen, and if you are honest about this, there is no way the Israeli Military will ever give up that land. And whether you like it or not, Hamas was the legitimately elected government in Gaza, choosen by a Palestinian population that was fed up with Fatah corruption.
Anyone with a brain has a right to protest Israeli hegemony. A belligerent country loaded with nuclear weapons that always demands more United States money to continue their plans. If you want to stop the complaints, stop giving them our money.

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By madison ford, July 14, 2008 at 6:05 am Link to this comment

Look, I’m a Democrat now, and I find certain claims made within this argument illogical. Yes, the pro-Israel lobby in this country is arguably the strongest of all the lobbies.

I don’t want to get too morbid here, but we all remember what happened when Fatah and Hamas got into it last year. Guys were being hogtied and thrown off the roofs of buildings. Syria, Iran’s lapdog, is rearming itself through Hezbollah near the Golan Heights.

Most Americans, sadly, are not aware of how serious it would be for Mahmoud I’m-a-Dinner-Jacket to get the bomb. Forget about Mahmoud; it’s really the mullahs that run the show.

You, sir, have a responsibility not to rail against “Israel nuclear hegemony” when they are the only democracy anywhere. You seem to be content with Iran gaining the bomb and think containment might work. I agree: no good military options.

But Iran cannot be allowed to get the bomb. Period.

http://hubpages.com/hub/GOP-Uncle-Tom-Votes-Obama-to-Counter-Injustice

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By hippy pam, July 14, 2008 at 5:55 am Link to this comment

FACE IT-AMERICA NO LONGER HAS THE LARGEST PENIS IN THE BEDROOM!!!We may still spend the most money per person-drive the largest and most fuel consumptive vehicles-and flex our government cock at the world…BUT-...we are a THIRD WORLD COUNTRY WITH OUT GOODS AND SERVICES TO TAKE CARE OF OUR OWN POPULATION-THANK YOU EMPEROR “BULLSHIT”!!!!!!!!!...I see the WORLD COURT is going after another of these despotic idiots for crimes against his own people.WHEN WILL “BULLSH*T” FACE THE WORLD COURT FOR THE CRIMES HE HAS COMMITED AGAINST HUMANITY???????

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By thebeerdoctor, July 14, 2008 at 5:53 am Link to this comment

Mr. Ritter is a sane rational person, but unfortunately what he is dealing with here is The Wipe Out gang. The wipe out gang, as Bob Dylan dutifully noted, owns and operates the insanity factory. This courageous former weapons inspector tried to warn them about Iraq. Do you think they are listening now?

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By jackpine savage, July 14, 2008 at 5:31 am Link to this comment

Unfortunately, the scenario that Ritter lays out (and that DuncanIdaho, along with a good many military analysts, concurs with) probably sounds just right for the movers and shakers in the Bush administration.

These men are quite grounded in reality, especially military reality, to begin with…so they’re likely to pooh-pooh dire predictions.  Moreover, from Dick Cheney’s perspective, what is so bad about any of that?

Congress is not going to do shit, face it.  The same goes for the presidential candidates and We the People.  Our only real hope lies inside the military.  But that hope requires that officers disobey direct orders and be labeled traitors.  And this is why a solid “yes” man like Petraeus was given a promotion.

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By Tippys Dad, July 14, 2008 at 4:36 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Like the title said, are we talking about the same Iran? The Iran who photo-shopped it’s spectacular missles launching so they were actually launching? The same Iran on the brink of civil war because of the actions taken by their wacko president? Folks, don’t let anyone scare you about how “powerful” Iran is. They’re not. If you think things here are bad with an out-of-control administration, it’s ten-fold in Iran. Don’t get me wrong, I think Iran is a great country with wonderful people and a rich history, but they’re not going to wipe out the United States military. I also hope we don’t wipe them out. Hopefully this won’t go beyond sabre-rattling.

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