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Who Will Be the New Global King of the Hill?Posted on Feb 2, 2010
China and India stopped being part of what was called the “third world” when the “second world,” the communist world, disappeared in a shattering of global illusions in 1989. Since then there has been a search to find a new King of the Global Hill. The United States rejoiced for a few years in being the sole superpower, considering it an opportunity to remake the world according to its own advantage. The 9/11 attacks in 2001 gave it the opportunity and encouragement to try remaking the Middle East and Asia. The effort has not produced the desired results. In Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. found itself mired in interventions it has been unable successfully to conclude. It has found itself drawn into deeper and much more dangerous engagements in the political and military affairs of Pakistan, the Iran nuclear imbroglio and an out-of-control Israeli government. Then came economic crisis: the credit and Wall Street collapse, and an unexpected recoil of international opinion against the American model of globalized capitalism, together with an international consensus that the system has to be replaced on terms that are not America’s terms. China has assertively placed on the table its claims to international status and authority; recognition of its geopolitical rank and diplomatic weight; and its demand that international opposition or interference cease with respect to its political claims on Tibet, Taiwan, contested islands in the South China Sea, and—for future attention—frontier adjustments with respect to North Korea, Vietnam and India. Advertisement Now there is political trouble between the United States and China on the Dalai Lama, and on the supply of arms to Taiwan—an affair whose origins lie in the Second World War and American support for the wartime Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek. Many since 1989 have promoted China as a model for speedy economic development, a candidate to become the new “top nation” through state mobilization of popular energies and ambition. India was at the same time promoted to second place in the Asian competition by showing how similar results could more humanely be produced by democratic government. China acquired an increasingly glamorous reputation in the West because of its very rapid growth and the soaring living standards of that small minority of Chinese who live in the modernizing sector of the economy. India has acquired the same reputation with the added advantage of democracy. In both cases world rank has been claimed (and often rewarded in the press) by competitive GDP—in these cases, initially at least, resulting from relatively unsophisticated offshore production for Western markets. This is now changing, but it will be a long time before China and India will manufacture innovative high-technology goods of autonomous design, competitive with North American and European producers. It will be even longer before standards of living throughout China and India remotely approach North American and West European levels. By that measure, most observers would name the European Union the new world’s King of the Hill. But politics have a potentially destructive role to play in all this, both domestic politics and international politics. China has an extremely dangerous and unresolved transition to make from one-party dictatorship, ruled by the self-nominated successors, to a leadership that gave China a half-century of government that at best has been despotic and at worst rivaled, or surpassed, Stalinism. The Dalai Lama is a symbol of what has happened to democracy in past and present China. Indian democracy is real although ramshackle, riddled with corruption and petty despotism at local levels. The Barack Obama government in Washington (or should one say, of corporate America) has uncritically accepted the sterile foreign policy of fighting over who is political (and potentially military) King of the Hill in Asia. It has been making trouble with Japan (the real industrial power in Asia) by insisting on a profitable but potentially politically disastrous perpetuation of the quasi-occupation of Okinawa by the U.S. Marine Corps. With respect to China, the United States is legally obligated to guarantee the security of (what now has become) a democratic Taiwan. China’s legal claim to the island is impeccable (unless we go back to the original aboriginal population, and the Portuguese, Dutch and Spanish who claimed the island; there was no Chinese presence until a renegade Ming Dynasty general arrived in the 17th century). Its moral claim is not. The Taiwan issue will nonetheless eventually find a sane resolution if American secretaries of state and Chinese governmental authorities can find it in themselves to refrain from bombastic mutual denunciation and efforts at political and economic blackmail over matters, like Iran, that have nothing to do with Asia. Economic progress and political development will eventually decide who is future King of the Hill in Asia. China, with a continuity of history that extends back to the Bronze Age, knows how to wait. So do Tibetans. One cannot be so confident about American statesmen and stateswomen. Visit William Pfaff’s website at www.williampfaff.com. © 2010 Tribune Media Services Inc. CommentsAre you a Truthdig member yet? Login now, or register with Truthdig. Add Your Comment |
By gerard, February 7, 2010 at 12:46 pm Link to this comment
Denk: I was born sarcastic and can’t help using it when I write. I think everybody will catch it—but not always, I guess. “manage to” .. “come to terms with belonging to the human race” scornful words that make (rather mean) fun of human beings whose money deceives them into actually believing, in spite of all evidence to the contrary, that they are, nevertheless, and in spite of their wealth, still human beings like everyone else. It’s impossible to explain sarcasm. It is also impossible to explain how rich people can so easily divorce themselves from other people. They do it for “protection” not from theft or kidnapping but from their own guilt and responsibility. Otherwise they would reach down from their high places and “do the right thing” which they are all fully aware of. I don’t buy this line about “the rich don’t know or care what they are doing.” They know very well,but must hide it from themselves in order to get richer. It’s called greed, and there ought to be laws to prevent it beyond a certain democratically-agreed-upon point. That would be at least an attempt at economic justice.
Report thisBy denk, February 6, 2010 at 8:18 am Link to this comment
i mean with due respect !!!
Report thisBy denk, February 6, 2010 at 8:00 am Link to this comment
**Unless, that is ... unless American heads of our “corporate/state” can manage to come to terms with belonging to the human race and let up on the American “exceptionalism” baloney**
gerard
without due respect, but you dont yet know about uncle sham…
http://tinyurl.com/5oygdv
his mantra…“we brood no competition”
“Historian Andre Gunder Frank once quipped that the only thing to fear about a rising China is
Report thishttp://tinyurl.com/ygmwwfj
America’s response to it
http://tinyurl.com/yafaavp
By denk, February 5, 2010 at 8:23 pm Link to this comment
china ===> tibet
india ===> democrazy
with stuff like this, who needs the msm ?
Report thisthe author needs some reality checks….
http://tinyurl.com/yl4jrse
By gerard, February 4, 2010 at 7:27 pm Link to this comment
I have a sneaking suspicion that “American hegemony” is going to look pretty silly when China really comes into its own as an “economic engine” as the capitalists like to say. With a population that large and an influence that deep, cultlurally and financially, they are likely to make America look more and more like a minor player with a pretty small pile of chips.
Report thisUnless, that is ... unless American heads of our “corporate/state” can manage to come to terms with belonging to the human race and let up on the American “exceptionalism” baloney. and unless our people can learn fast enough that facing facts and gracefully admitting the invitable change in status will lead us all in a better direction than the posturings of an outdated imperialism and insistence on maintaining a failed capitalism at everybody else’s expense. I can’t imagine a few corporate big wigs who have manaaged to claw their way to the top of the Western heap telling the Chinese what to do, can you?
Adapt or die. Collaborate or fail. Plan for the future now or pine for the past later. Something like that.
By gerard, February 3, 2010 at 1:00 pm Link to this comment
Postscript: To call our politicians “statesmen” and “stateswomen” is a bit much, don’t you think?
Report thisThese guys have not shown any signs of statesman(woman)ship for many years—with a very few exceptions which soon get them slapped down or defunded or worse.
The very first thing any real statesperson would do after taking a look at what is going on in Washington now would be to resign and tell why. Second-best: Refuse all corporate contributions as a matter of principle and explain why. Turn out all lobbyists. Three: Read their email and work for what the ordinary Janes and Joes in their area say the want Washington to do.
By TAO Walker, February 3, 2010 at 12:01 pm Link to this comment
....and what will it matter, when “the global hill” turns out to be a dung-heap so full of industrial toxins it can only sterilize, and never fertilize, those who fight and foolishly CONdemn theirselfs to ‘reign’ over it? No wonder wiser posters here reject this article’s fatuous endorsement of the dog-eat-dog ‘dominance’ paradigm at the rotten core of the entire “global” CONfidence scheme….not to mention “civilization” itself.
William Pfaff could maybe use a little time-off. His ‘perspective’ seems to be getting increasingly distorted….perhaps the effects of the rule-of-fear he suffers under, and that has him looking desperately for some miserable company-in.
Thanks….but NO thanks.
HokaHey!
Report thisBy Ludwik Kowalski, February 3, 2010 at 7:02 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
Just published: AUTOBIOGRAPHY OF A FORMER COMMUNIST
Please share this link with those who might be interested.
go to http://WWW.AMAZON.COM and search for Ludwik Kowalski
or
http://pages.csam.montclair.edu/~kowalski/mybook2.html
Report thisP.S. The book is waiting for a reviewer
By FRTothus, February 2, 2010 at 8:25 pm Link to this comment
Despite the fact that China has ground forces that could overwhelm, nuclear capability, and huge resources, historically it has been surprisingly tolerant with its neighbors. Perhaps it is the Eastern understanding that holds that alone we are weak, and only together are we strong, that by himself, the individual is nothing. A compelling philosophy, indeed. But the author of the above article cannot escape his education and upbringing, or that of his editors, and so can imagine no better world, no higher living standard, no other standards in fact, than of a Hollywood world. Having worn the green-colored glasses of the imperial world-view that assigns a service role for its subjects, as well as those disposable people in East Asia and the sub-continent (and likely, in his view, Africa, the Carribean, and the rest of the world, as well) along the lines of the Grand Arena decided upon by at WW2’s end by the un-elected boardroom boys, the freightened men of finance and capital, and their thousands of adoring press agents monopolizing and steering the public conversation, cornering the politicians who, schooled in the same selfish self-interest meme, willing forgo the common good for their own personal gain. One cannot serve two masters, however.
Can we not think outside the industrial top-down democracy/oligarchy box? Can we not imagine that the shopping mall may not be a proper measure of development or a “high standard of living”? It’s easy to pump up GDP, as narrow as the measurements are, but it rarely results in a social good. It is not in the nature of Capitalism to bring widespread prosperity. Capitalism does not nurture cooperation and consensus. A culture that desires us all to be good little consumers of products we are encouraged to buy is lacking a great deal. Do we not have the imagination to understand that maybe there is such a thing as too much, that there are more humane and just ways of living than being set adrift to get the best bargain, instead of the benefit of social wealth, to which we all contribute, doled out to support those “too big to fail”? Consider for a moment the notion that “capitalism” is the bastard Siamese-twin brother of the atomized citizen of “democracy”.
There was a time when renting out one’s labor was considered disgusting, not the act of a free man. A good dose of union busting and we’re rid of that civilizing force. Instead, we are now to clamber all over each other for the chance to prostitute ourselves. We are criminally pitted, one against the other, in more and more dire and desperate competition for a resource cynically controlled by the very few. We are managed.
The poor work very hard, make no mistake. And most of them in the US are white women, struggling in conditions not terribly unlike those in Bangladesh or Burma.
Capitalism has always been a disaster for the majority.
Report thisBy Vic Anderson, February 2, 2010 at 7:29 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
“Well”, (to quote Reagan) if it means they’ll take over our Bush Wars and
Report thisObamanible economy, Let the #@%*& Chinese HAVE IT!
By samosamo, February 2, 2010 at 7:25 pm Link to this comment
Well, reducing the absurd number of humans is one way to ease
Report thisthe pressure but the ‘global king of the hill’ will be the country
with the most and biggest nuclear weapons.PERIOD
By ofersince72, February 2, 2010 at 6:54 pm Link to this comment
Sir , you have been a member of the major media for
a while now….....
Thank you so much for the contibutions….
Report thisBy bozhidar balkas, vancouver, February 2, 2010 at 5:59 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
Calling indian rule [appearing to be a plutocracy] and indian evil empire a democracy, does not explain anything.
Report thisChinese system of rule is supported by probably 90% of its pop yet it is not a democracy.
It is also less of an evil empire than either india or US.
With US empire being more evil than the indian.
If china is building socialism and in decades manages to set up an idyllic society, it still may not be called a democracy.
An idyllic society can then go by any name; even dictarship of masses.
But once an egalitarian society is set up, its people wld fight to death rather than revert to a rule by rich people.
To create a socialist, much egalitarian, and very hateful of feudal and warlords’ rule, society it may take at least decades or even centuries.
To create a socialist state one has to first create socialists.
To create an asocialist [fascist country]like the US, one first has to create lostsof fascists. It took 2 centuries to build such a society and is not perfect yet.
I am sure that US plutocrats wld love to improve it. tnx
By gerard, February 2, 2010 at 4:58 pm Link to this comment
Mr. Pfaff: Rather than speculating on who will become “king of the hill” I wish you would address suggestions for avoiding such a dangerous future. We all ought to be looking toward growing up pretty soon, as the world gets both smaller and more complex.
Don’t tell me we are doomed and a vicious competition is inevitable. Everybody is thinking that, fearing that. What is needed is not dread but ways to avoid it before it gets any farther along.
Anybody can stir up fear in international relations. What is needed is creative, forward-looking, world-minded thinking, and some indication that a better future is possible. I know that’s harder to do, but . . . less than that is not helpful.
Report thisBy ofersince72, February 2, 2010 at 4:23 pm Link to this comment
I don’t see where it will be that long at all
before the U.S. and China citizens have the
same standard of living…..
Most households now are dependent on at least on
government check….What happens when they stop?
We are just a crisis away from Sinclair’s Jungle,
Report this