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Reports

What Britain Taught Us About Hard Times and the Left

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Posted on May 7, 2010
Clegg
AP / Jon Super

Fortunes change: Britain’s Liberal Democrat Party leader Nick Clegg appears with his wife, Miriam Gonzalez Durantez, as he waves to supporters and members of the media after voting in his Sheffield constituency on Thursday.

By E.J. Dionne, Jr.

Britain produced an electoral earthquake all right, but not the one so many expected. The real lessons have less to do with two-party systems than with how economic change has challenged old strategies on both the right and the left.

The Conservatives under David Cameron came in first with the most votes and the most seats. The big Tory gains reflected Cameron’s shrewd understanding that only a moderate and forward-looking conservatism stands any chance of victory.

But Cameron failed to win a majority, and the cause of this indecisive result was not, as seemed likely just a few weeks ago, a breakthrough by the third-party Liberal Democrats led by Nick Clegg. On the contrary, against all the hopes inspired by Clegg’s first debate performance, the Lib Dems actually lost seats and only marginally increased their share of the total vote.

What kept the Conservatives from going over the top was the durability of Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labor Party. It took a drubbing but survived.

Just days before the election, many were speaking of a third-place popular-vote finish by Labor that would, indeed, have exploded the old two-party system. Instead, Labor held on in many constituencies the Conservatives needed to take, outpolled the Lib Dems by six percentage points in the popular vote and won more than four times as many seats.

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It did so because in parts of the country that have never shared in the great metropolitan prosperity around London, mistrust of the Conservatives still runs deep. In the final days of the campaign, Brown stoked memories in the country’s older industrial areas of the havoc created by Margaret Thatcher’s economic policies. He warned that Cameron’s Conservatives were not as shiny and new as they claimed. It was not enough to win Brown the election, but it was enough to ward off utter disaster.

Clegg got caught in this crossfire. He was presenting the Lib Dems as the ultimate win-win, a center-left alternative that would allow voters to disentangle themselves from Labor without having to vote Conservative. Given the decline of Britain’s old working class, always the heart of Labor’s vote, this seemed a realistic prospect.

But many of Labor’s bastions held. Britain’s geographical and economic periphery proved quite resistant to the tides that swept across wealthier and trendier parts of the country. Labor actually gained ground in Scotland, where it was already dominant. It suffered losses in Wales, but still won nearly two-thirds of the Welsh seats. In the northeast and northwest of England, Labor also took some hits but largely held its own.

The outcome in Britain underscores a problem roiling so many democracies. The economic change brought about by globalization and technological advances is not creating the happy, unified world of progress its promoters keep promising. Instead, it is splitting regions within nations that are fully part of the global market from those being left behind.

This is a particular problem for center-left parties. They need to bring together progressive voters of the middle and upper middle classes—they were the moving force behind Cleggmania when the Liberal Democrat leader was surging—and older working-class voters who are the base of the social democratic left everywhere.

When sufficient numbers in these two groups of voters ally, the moderate left wins. This is how Barack Obama did it in 2008 and how Labor won elections in 1997, 2001 and 2005. The left fails when this alliance falls apart or is divided. That’s what happened this time in Britain.

Cameron’s genius was to accept that the future of conservatism lies in winning over moderately progressive voters in the classes doing reasonably well in this new economic world. In his post-election statement offering to form a governing alliance with the Liberal Democrats, he began by declaring victory for “a new, modern Conservative Party,” a socially concerned, open-minded and tolerant band you don’t have to be ashamed of supporting.

Cameron understands—as many Republicans in the U.S. seem not to—that conservatism needs to sand off its rough edges and present itself as a stabilizing, unifying force.

Clegg, despite his party’s disappointing showing, found himself in a position to make or break the next government because Cameron could not eke out a Conservative majority. But no matter how the next government is shaped or how it fares, it is Clegg’s voters who are the big prize over the long run. The renewed competition for their hearts began the moment the polls closed.
   
E.J. Dionne’s e-mail address is ejdionne(at)washpost.com.
   
© 2010, Washington Post Writers Group


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By John S Veitch, May 12, 2010 at 12:22 pm Link to this comment

Sadly E.J. Dionne doesn’t understand what’s happening at all. Nor do most of the politicians and journalists in the UK.

Many of the letter writers here DO understand what’s happening. Change the old two party system can’t cope with because an educated electorate understands that the political process is years behind where the electorate is trying to go.

In any first past the post election, in each electorate there is a two candidate race except in the rarest of situations. In this situation small parties always shed votes to someone who’s got a chance of winning. People vote against their real interest, and vote for someone they don’t support, to keep out someone they like even less.

The key to what might be happening in the UK, is the possibility of electoral change. Changes in the upper house, and moving to a proportional representation electoral system. Nick Clegg thinks he’s been offered a public vote on electoral change.  The promise he has is likely to be worthless. The Conservatives and the Labour Party will BOTH work against any effort to change the system. They will do everything they can to mangle the wording of the referendum, and to destroy the real potential of voting system change.

If voters are angry enough, they will vote for change anyway. What I’ve just described is what happened here in NZ 20 years ago. Sadly, because the politicians tried to create a system that “wouldn’t be workable” and that the public would reject, we don’t have the best system they could design. We have instead the worst system they could think of. Even so, our new system, MMP, is much better than what we had. The NZ public was quite right to say “plague on both your houses” and to vote for change and against BOTH the main political parties (and against the business lobby).

Proportional Representation is the future for the UK.

Sadly in the USA, The Democrats and the Republicans have so gerrymandered the system that success for a third party looks impossible. The system in the USA isn’t democratic, needed change is being avoided. The two party system isn’t serving the electorate, it serves the funding sources. The USA is in decline, and the rot will continue until something breaks.

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By Archie1954, May 12, 2010 at 12:20 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

It seems to me based on the contents of this article that having a political coalition between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives could be just the evidence that the Brotish people need to start trusting the Conservatives again. I mean that partnership could keep the Conservatives honest to their word to the electorate.

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By firefly, May 12, 2010 at 10:34 am Link to this comment

Let’s hope that Clegg’s promised of electoral change
actually happens, otherwise it won’t be long before the
electorate becomes disillusioned once again!

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By CitizenWhy, May 12, 2010 at 5:39 am Link to this comment

The real significance of this election is that the Tories have come to resemble,
on the surface, a continental conservative Social Democratic Party. Such a party
must accept a robust social benefit system while getting finances under
control. That’s its mandate, and it succeeds or fails according to that mandate. 
The far right proto-Tories have to live with this reality or mumble their way
into forming a new party. If you want to understand the center of the Tory Party
learn about the family of Kate Middleton, the probable bride to be of Prince Wm
and the future queen, or consort, or whatever she would be called within the
theater of the feudal.

New Labour was Americanized into accepting no regulation of financial
institutions and a reliance on financial trading as the engine of economic
growth (and collapse). As a result the UK saw income inequality rise, the dole
become accepted as permanent state of being (even for young graduates of
posh schools), and the lords of finance cheerily take the nation to the
poorhouse door. These lords, as the nation became poorer, became richer.
Same story as in US because the script was written in the US.

All three parties, and any British government, stand a far better chance of
effectively regulating the financial industries than does the government of the
US. The big challenge is to find two-three industries to replace finance as the
engine of economic growth.

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By Mike3, May 10, 2010 at 8:16 am Link to this comment

Omygodnotagain thanks. I would agree with pretty much all of what you say there but would add that the Brits are suspicious of Europe period. One has to remember that they were not part of the EU at its creation. It was “born” during the cold war, the Americans, the Russians and the Brits were all suspicious of it. Its Franco-German core has remained pretty much intact to this day, the other countries are just later additions. Yes arguments about the French butter mountain are perennial. But the main point is still the reluctance of the Brits to (as they see it) surrender their sovereignty. They won’t of course but they see it like that.
Being British myself but having lived 26 years in Germany (and working for the Americans I won’t say for who) the anti-European rhetoric coming from the UK makes me laugh, all the more so when I see how serious they are with their imagined angst for Europe. This means that whenever a new party comes to power the European question is always in the forefront. This means that British politics has stagnated. As has American politics with its constant harping on homosexuality, patriotism and abortion, or as Gore Vidal has put it: the flag, the fetus and the faggot.

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By Siloam48, May 9, 2010 at 3:04 pm Link to this comment

What happens in Europe ultimately comes to America. Get ready for a wild summer & November election (Utah has already proved that with the ousting of a ‘career republican politician).

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By omygodnotagain, May 9, 2010 at 2:00 pm Link to this comment

Mike3
Nice post, one of the reasons Brits are wary of Europe is the cultural attitude to taxes. A few years ago a study was done to find out which citizen of the countries in Europe are most honest about paying taxes. At the top were Scandanavian countries, the Dutch and the British, at the bottom was France, and Italy. In other words the French in this case do not walk the talk. Similarly, farm subsidies are protected in France, and there are refrigerated boats with stockpiles of produce floating in the Atlantic to keep prices high, while at the same time other subsidies by other countries to protect their markets are condemned by the French. The Brits and the Germans feel they put in a lot more than they get out. That all the talk of fraternity and fairness is a lot of hot air. I do think the financial restructure makes a lot of sense. Pity our politicians are owned body and soul by Wall Street.

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By par4, May 9, 2010 at 11:52 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

A moderate forward looking conservatism…? E.J. what kind of crap are you trying to peddle here? More relevant facts and less with the opinions,please.

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By Mike3, May 9, 2010 at 1:25 am Link to this comment

Excellent post by greenuprising and the last post. Let me just add to what you both say. Even if there was proportional representation in the UK Nick Clegg would still not be prime minister. There would be three parties holding about one third of the vote. Even more hung than it is. More just, hell yes, I agree, but with the same problem. And something you both may know or not, is that Clegg is pro-Europe, and most Brits are still unsure where they stand on Europe. So although there was immediate support for him after the debate; where he outperformed the other two: this support is limited because of his views on immigration and Europe. The electoral system does need changing agreed, but what really needs to change in the UK is the realization that it’s part of Europe, that its future IS Europe not America. Until that happens nothing will change. Oh; and Merkel and the French are now putting together a system that will control the free booting of the casino, scavenging market, another point the Brits don’t agree on.

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By omygodnotagain, May 8, 2010 at 11:39 am Link to this comment

I grew up in Britain, and voted Liberal. As greenuprising noted the electoral system is very flawed. Here is why, of the 650 seats open, the Liberals only got 57 despite getting 23% of the vote. In other words nearly one quarter of Britains voted Lib/Dem but they ended up with less than 10% of the seats. Labor has benefited for years from this as shown by the fact Labor got 29% (just 6% than the Lib/Dem)of the vote but got 258 seats, nearly 40% of the seats.  If one’s vote is to mean anything it should be reflected in the make up of the government. There needs to be fewer seats and a fudge factor that allows for MPs of under represented voters to be assigned to Parliament or ministers appointed to Cabinet positions from the under represented parties.
Otherwise there can never be change via the ballot box.

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By Joe, May 8, 2010 at 11:34 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Its always amusing to see how removed from democracy the voting systems are, whether here or abroad.

As usual the population at large will not be allowed a direct vote on any issue of national importance. 
 
I never really will fully understand how people can get so worked up over the incredibly insignificant vote they do have in the “representative” systems

You have to wonder how long people in these various countries will put up with it?

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By greenuprising, May 8, 2010 at 6:45 am Link to this comment

The first lesson of the British vote is that their electoral system, which we copied, sucks.  Labour “outpolled the Lib Dems by six percentage points in the popular vote and won more than four times as many seats.”  How is that possible, you ask (you should ask; did anyone ask)??  Because the “winner-take-all”, “first-past-the-post,” “plurality rule” electoral system dictates that the party with the most votes in a district, not a majority, mind you, wins the whole kabooty.  So just getting ahead of two or three or sixteen other candidates by a point or two gives you the whole district, never mind that most people (a majority, that is) voted against you.  In America we call this “majority rule.”  It ain’t, and it ain’t democratic, but that’s how we and the Brits do things.

The second lesson is that bi- or tri-partisan pandering to the muddled middle class “center” gives everyone an opportunity to divide the vote.  The outcome doesn’t end up telling us much of anything, because no one represented anything.  We don’t have positions to vote for, we have personalities and competing claims of competence.  Is there anything less telling than a People Magazine poll?

But yes, Britain is divided because the new economy is no more a unifier than the old, because there are lots of victims out there who cling to Labour, of all parties, because they fear being victimized more by the Tories.  A decent electoral system would give them, and us, some real choices; but it will take a revolution of some sort to give us even that.

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By balkas, May 8, 2010 at 6:13 am Link to this comment

Well, the four sister nations:n.irish, scottish, welsh, and english are still happy even after losing in 40s half of the world.

The reason for that is that they via US now posses a tad more than half of the planet, but w.o. missiles or bombs landing in their yards, markets, football parks.

And the food is getting daily tastier. Football games more grandiose. And even ordinary peasnts becoming sirs such as mcarthney and elton john.

And i will never ever be knighted because bohunks don`t have this ritual. tnx

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By Mike3, May 8, 2010 at 3:33 am Link to this comment

What the result shows is that the British people are still clueless as to the cause of their woes. The obvious choice was Nick Clegg but they rejected him for the brain dead Left and the brain dead Right. Nothing will change.

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By SteveL, May 7, 2010 at 8:11 pm Link to this comment

The Brits are feed up with the stupid wars, the conservatives promised to end the
Afghanistan involvement, good on them.

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By Phil E, May 7, 2010 at 5:24 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

I wish US media would stop misspelling “Labour”. In this context it’s a proper noun, so should contain the u regardless of how you spell labour. I appreciate this is a minor point, but it’s grating to see the name of a major political party consistently misspelled.

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Anarcissie's avatar

By Anarcissie, May 7, 2010 at 3:18 pm Link to this comment

Commune115, May 7 at 4:56 pm:
‘Labour took big losses because its “centrist” polices were a joke. As the Mexican writer Paco Ignacio Taibo II once said, “the centre is nothing.”’

Actually, in the big liberal-capitalist-imperialist states like Britain, France, and, of course, the United States, the center is everything.

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By CaptRon, May 7, 2010 at 1:26 pm Link to this comment

BEWARE OF THE HANGING CHADS!!!
Experience says don’t sell out to a conservative during a time of discontent. Clegg should barter for his liberal Dems knowing it is the best that can be done this time. After all, they were expecting to have much higher results and didn’t get the support. Position for the next election but don’t sell out to a conservative.

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By Commune115, May 7, 2010 at 11:56 am Link to this comment

Labour took big losses because its “centrist” polices were a joke. As the Mexican writer Paco Ignacio Taibo II once said, “the centre is nothing.” British workers need revolutionary change, unfortunately the globalized world of materialism and toys has turned us into a very timid generation. Even in Latin America you can see how centrist leftist politics yield nothing but defeat. The right-wing has taken back Chile and could very well take back Brazil, while in Bolivia for example, the more revolutionary ruling party has seen its support grow. People want real change, not timid bureaucrats.

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By diamond, May 7, 2010 at 11:50 am Link to this comment

I’m sure you’ve heard the term ‘Cutting off your nose to spite your face’. That’s what the British would have done if they’d elected the Tories to punish Labour. Cameron wants to dismantle the National Health Service and he wants to farm the entire social security system out to private companies. This would have led, as it did in my country, to people with brain injuries fitting on the floor of welfare offices and then having their payment cut off because they failed to put their form in. He also wanted to dismantle public schools and turn them into 19th century cottage industries. Faced with this Orwellian future the people of Britain basically said ‘A plague on both your houses’ and have produced a hung parliament. The right choice in the circumstances. Gordon Brown would do a much better job of managing the fragile British economy than the slasher movie Cameron had in mind. All western economies need to remember that to create real wealth you have to produce something and sell it, not get involved in global Ponzi schemes.

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