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June 19, 2013
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The Wave and the RealityPosted on Oct 18, 2010I’m cautious about the conventional wisdom that the Democratic Party is about to get flattened by a Republican steamroller. Pollsters are less certain than they’d like you to believe about who’s a “likely voter” and who isn’t. It’s easy to imagine how Democrats, facing near-unanimous predictions of a wipeout, could bestir themselves to narrow the enthusiasm gap by just enough to turn a potential “wave” election into a regular midterm setback for the party in power. Then again, Democrats might react to the prospect of big losses by pulling the blanket over their heads and going back to sleep. If this happens, Republicans could plausibly win not just the House but the Senate as well. America will have sent Washington a message—and Washington will go on, basically, with business as usual. The conservatives and tea party activists who believe they’re going to fundamentally change the relationship between citizens and their government will become just as disillusioned as the progressives and independents who believed they were fundamentally changing that relationship in 2008. Two years from now, we might well be looking at yet another wave—flowing in the opposite direction. Our politics have become tidal. Begin with the central argument that the Republicans, and especially the tea party people, have been making: that the federal government, especially under President Barack Obama, is grotesquely large and tyrannically intrusive. If the GOP takes control of one or both houses of Congress, voters will expect action to cut the federal beast down to size. All right, the 2010 budget was about $3.5 trillion. Where should the dragon-slayers begin to make meaningful cuts? Advertisement It’s true, though, that we can’t continue to run huge deficits—for 2010, an estimated $1.3 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. There are two ways to close the gap. One of them, raising taxes, is anathema to today’s GOP and has been ruled out by party leaders. The other, slashing expenditures, would mean taking an ax to entitlements. Republicans, looking ahead to the 2012 presidential campaign, aren’t going to do anything but pretend to nip at the edges. OK, if the revolutionaries of the right aren’t likely to make a serious attempt to get the federal budget under control—and, really, anyone who refuses even to discuss raising taxes isn’t serious—then at least they can reverse some of what Obama has done, right? No, not really. The president will still have veto power, which makes the whole “undo Obama” thing moot. But set this aside for a moment. Look at the president’s most controversial accomplishment, health care reform. Republicans vow to repeal it. But in their “Pledge to America” manifesto, they promise to replace the system they call “Obamacare” with ... elements of “Obamacare” that the GOP seeks to rebrand. For example, Republicans say they want to prohibit insurance companies from denying coverage due to pre-existing conditions—just as the president’s reform package already does. But they want to do this without a mandate compelling Americans to buy health insurance, and without that mandate the figures don’t add up. All of this is posturing, not policy. Here’s the real question: Would Republicans in charge of one or both houses of Congress work with the Obama administration or simply obstruct it at every turn? If they choose the former, true believers will accuse them of aiding and abetting the enemy. If the latter, they open themselves to charges of playing politics at a time when the nation can ill afford such foolishness. I expect obstruction. That would be bad for the country, but it would be a gift to a White House seeking to regain its political footing. Every time Obama reached out to Capitol Hill and had his hand slapped away, more independents—frustrated with partisanship and inaction—would drift back into his column. He’d be well positioned for 2012. That’s the thing about electoral waves: They crash on the perilous shores of reality. Eugene Robinson’s e-mail address is eugenerobinson(at)washpost.com. New and Improved CommentsIf you have trouble leaving a comment, review this help page. Still having problems? Let us know. If you find yourself moderated, take a moment to review our comment policy. |
By morristhewise, October 21, 2010 at 3:25 pm Link to this comment
There are few politicians in the nation that can play the role as a national leader as
Report thiswell, Obama has talent even if he has no substance. The best thing about him is
that he accomplishes nothing, and that is good. Change can be dangerous and we
are better off with the status quo.
By ESA, October 20, 2010 at 10:49 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
“A coworker once told me that spam & bullets were
the only things worth buying - I thought he was a
nut, but now I’m not so sure.”
I loved the 10 points etc. for the lack of enthusiasm for Obamaslama put forth by ‘worm.’ In reading all things from the left and right (books, news, mags, blogs, etc.), it becomes clear to me the election offers two choices; voting against who you want to see loose or for who you want to see win. The elections have nothing to do with the actual issues needing immediate attention in this country or what we as citizens need. The issues that are at the root of the meltdown here and abroad are those affecting our lives and are ignored by both parties. They are plastered all over the internet for voters who care to be informed.
In the final analysis, the political debates taking place have nothing to do with the issues and more to do with smokescreens aimed at protecting the status quo or applying for the job to do so.
We are in the united states of corporate america and we are seeing the work of corporate greed and they will not be happy until they have stolen ALL our money. What happens then?
There are those, myself included, who feel civil disobedience, such as the Greeks demonstrated, is the only answer. The elitist see us as expendable and have taken the steps to deal with the potential threat. Go to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rex_84 for those who don’t know this and follow the links.
Discontent is running very deep in this nation. Your coworker is not alone.
Report thisBy REDHORSE, October 19, 2010 at 5:05 pm Link to this comment
After being sucker punched twice in a row by the Democratic Party, and flogged and threatened mercilessly by our propagandist press about the coming Boehner Gang take over, voters just want to get the ass whipping over with. Most are so beaten up they don’t even want to vote. Now, after ten years of fascist destruction and looting of the American economy, as invisible International Black Market/Corporate cash flows directly into facist coffers and every Rovian/Koch looney tune zombie possible is dancing on the American political stage Mr. E. Robinson tells us not to worry. Mr. Obama has the veto.
It’s a set up. And this time they’re looking to put you down for good.
Report thisBy morristhewise, October 19, 2010 at 1:50 pm Link to this comment
Hollywood directors and holy men believe that God is a baritone, it would be
Report thisblasphemy to think that the voice of God was squeaky or shrilly. When Obama
bellows in his high testerone baritone voice, women faint in ecstasy while blue
collar workers shake and shiver.
McCain, Hillary,or Palin have voices that are squeaky or shrilly, it is no wonder they
were defeated. The next Republican contender for president must be a baritone,
and he can be a liar.
By rbrooks, October 19, 2010 at 1:31 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
Washington will go on anyway with business as usual.
Obama has spent almost two years continuing, entrenching, and in many cases expanding the worst policies of the Bush and Clinton administrations.
I can’t listen to the man. Out there unburying Campaign Obama, the Prince of Mendacity, telling the same tired lies and acting verklempt because some of us find it impossible to believe him any more? He makes my skin crawl.
Report thisBy Valatius, October 19, 2010 at 12:07 pm Link to this comment
Robinson is probably correct about the extent to which waves will sweep back and forth, as each party proves unable to manage a deficit that ultimately derives from the de-industrialization policies endorsed by those same two parties for decades. And yes, Obama could benefit in 2012 if the Tea Party- loving Republicans do gain control of Congress and end up being discredited by a failure to keep their impossible promises.
As to the Democratic “enthusiasm gap,” I suspect that the Obama administration has little interest in stirring up the enthusiasm that brought him to power in 2008. One sign of this is the moribund nature of the “Organizing for America” website that was so effective in coordinating grass-roots campaign work. I used it to connect with local Obama activists, donate funds and to participate in well-targeted phone campaigns. And guess what? My account is de-activated, as are those of many others who were part of the Obama 08 effort.
Report thisBy Hammond Eggs, October 19, 2010 at 11:51 am Link to this comment
“It’s easy to imagine how Democrats, facing near-unanimous predictions of a wipeout, could bestir themselves to narrow the enthusiasm gap . . . “
Frankly, me dear, I don’t give a damn.
Report thisBy Lafayette, October 19, 2010 at 10:20 am Link to this comment
A JUST SOCIETY
I would have used the word “faddish” - as in, “fads come and go” - but I still agree with the comment as made.
It would be better for Americans to stop thinking about politics as if it were MPEG-players or some other “Must Have” gadget. I submit that politics, like it or not (and most of us don’t like it in its present form), is key to the future well-being of this nation and its citizens.
More so, Americans must decide what sort of society that they want – one made up of megabuck super-heroes or one of a Just Society for all its members.
I should hope, by now, that we’ve understood z simple fact: Wealth does not trickle down. It stays right up there doing not much of anything for social justice.
Report thisBy mdgr, October 19, 2010 at 10:13 am Link to this comment
One final thought:
Robinson has at least one thing right. Obama can be expected to lie/posture even more after the election. He’ll let the R’s do the heavy lifting for Wall Street (which he has championed thus far) and re-frame the narrative into one wherein the D’s (incompetent and passive-aggressive to the end) reach out to Main Street. It will get pretty nauseating.
It’ll be interesting to see what Berlin does, but there is reason to suspect that Vichy won’t get that much traction here.
Obama may be “popular” but his “approval” poll numbers are falling very rapidly. He will probably run in 2012, but the chances of his getting re-elected cannot be high.
A political vacuum will be created and I think that many people sense this, albeit subconsciously. What will happen after the Democratic Party’s November rout, therefore, will be of great interest.
Report thisBy mdgr, October 19, 2010 at 9:52 am Link to this comment
Well, the cat’s finally out of the bag. The Dems will be creamed and—wow—even Eugene has said that the sky isn’t going to fall. Oh, wow.
There’s that little thing called veto power. Does that mean that we don’t have to lie to ourselves and vote the “lesser of two evils” again? Yes, that’s exactly what it means.
Now, Eugene Robinson and other cheerleaders for Vichy International still want us to know that the Dems are the good guys, the Republicans (Berlin) are the bad guys.
Tweedledee and Tweedledum regularly switch sides every few years, however, and both sides smell equally foul. The first is aggressive-aggressive, and in bed with the lobbyists. The second is passive-aggressive and in bed with the lobbyists. Choose your poison.
Given the fact that public anger and cynicism has never been this strong since the Great Depression, there may be another option this time around. At least that’s what Naomi Klein and Thomas Friedman are talking about, though in a somewhat different fashion.
Here’s hoping that Vichy’s rout is so great that people fall away from that party in ever-greater numbers even after the election—including progressive legislators that are currently still joined at the hip to the DNC.
Maybe in 2012, we’ll be given a real choice, not the faux Vichy/Berlin choice currently on our ballots.
Report thisBy Anarcissie, October 19, 2010 at 9:15 am Link to this comment
Most of the discussions of the midterm elections insist on approaching the subject monarchically. That is, the election can be nothing but a referendum on Mr. O and the national Democratic Party. The monarchical approach is generally coupled with a good deal of ideological analysis, or at least sloganeering.
However, most Congressional and Senatorial races are not actually referendums on the presidency, and most people—the overwhelming majority—do not vote ideologically anyway. Therefore, most of the analyses which begins with the presidency and its supposed ideology are beside the point.
The loss of seats which the president’s party traditionally suffers during midterm elections is largely a shadow or reflection of the president’s coattails of two years before; many people are swept into office by the coattail effect who cannot be elected without them to ride on. This is not a matter of ideology or resentment; it is simply a resumption of the normal political habits of the voters.
In general, then, I think the supposedly upcoming Democratic catastrophe is greatly overrated, and that in any case the lists of presidential failings or accomplishments, however accurate, are irrelevant.
Report thisBy balkas, October 19, 2010 at 8:02 am Link to this comment
It does seem to me that people evaluate casting a piece of paper—and no a
single issue written on it to vote for or against—for a smiling a face but tutored
to guard the system, wld be affective of changing or even emending the basic
structure of US governance!
It seems to me that an overwhelming number of americans [99.99%?] think that
the governmental structure, which arises from the interpretation of US
constitution
[self being considered sacrosant; tho merely interpreted by fallible people] is ok,
but that some people are dishonest or are violating the sacrosancy of the
constitution.
Many believe that just taxing perfectly everything wld be allright. Alas they do
not espy, that there are thousands of economists and mns of people with
millions propositions how to tax people and spend their money.
Nor do they realize that the seeming confusion is part of the structure which
they hold so dear to their hearts.
And so, joe replaces in congress josephine. Next time it is then the other way
around; while others get preselected and only thus ‘elected’ for office, but with
same mind intact!
It does seem that goodcopbadcop still works quite well. So why wld uncle sam
and uncle tom change that?
And there are also uncles hans, pierre, slobodan, joshua, pedro, petar, magnus,
Report thisgiovani there. Thanks for ur L, R Ear or the Finger!
By Reverend Unruh, October 19, 2010 at 7:17 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
Raise revenues by legalizing pot.
Cut expenses by quitting our illegal and invasive overseas war policies.
Tax the rich to equalize the economy to a point where it is functioning again.
Investigate the criminals running the banking system.
Honestly, I don’t see what is so hard about that.
Report thisBy Fat Freddy, October 19, 2010 at 7:13 am Link to this comment
The only real difference I see between the two parties is rhetoric. Yeah, yeah, so we (as a nation), will put the Republicans back in charge. Will it be any different than the last time Republicans were in charge? No. So, we’ll put Democrats back in charge. Will it be any different? No. The two-party system does nothing but maintain the power of the ruling elite. They are one party of two different flavors.
What would I do?
First, end the wars, and bring the troops home.
Eliminate tax subsidies to corporations and make them all passthrough corps. In fact, eliminate all income and payroll taxes and institute a flat national sales tax (not a VAT) at the retail level, and allow subsidies only for low income people, and exemptions on necessities.
End all subsidies and aid for foreign countries, and actually charge countries for our “security services”.
Cut our losses and establish a Resolution Trust Authority to unwind large, zombie banks.
Eliminate Social Security for the next generation, and establish a real “Safety Net”, if one actually can exist.
Substantially cut defense spending. We don’t need to be the World’s policeman. With 100 or so nukes, we don’t have to worry too much about being invaded. If American companies wish to do business in other parts of the World, they do so at their own risk. The only thing that needs to be protected are the trade routes.
Eliminate most or all social welfare programs, and place responsibility on individuals and communities to develop private, charitable organizations to provide for the poor and underprivileged.
The problem with my plan is, it requires that people be held accountable for their actions, and inaction. The problem in this country, is no one, from the poorest, all the way up to the richest, do not want to be held responsible. They would rather the government assume the responsibility, and sacrifice their freedom. The problem is, the US government was established to “create a more perfect union” between the states, not to alleviate people of their responsibilities.
Report thisBy madisolation, October 19, 2010 at 6:24 am Link to this comment
“Pity the middle class; pity the Democratic Party - it was put to death by its own
Report thiselected officials.”
That’s absolutely true. Sometimes it’s hard to grasp how this fraud of a man could take office and breathe life into a dying Republican corpse and then embrace that corpse and its destructive ideology. From his torture to his drones to his spying to his adoration of the wealthy, Obama has done a macabre dance on the graves of the middle class. He has no redeeming traits.
I have no respect for the Democrats, either. Even the so-called “liberals with consciences” (Sanders and Kucinich) wouldn’t stand firm when pressured, and our hopes for at least one or two honest liberals were dashed. None of the Democrats wanted my input when they bailed out the banks or gave more money for wars, and so they aren’t getting my input on November second. The same goes for Obama in 2012.
By Rigor, October 19, 2010 at 6:06 am Link to this comment
A real transformation seems to be taking place in
Report thisour political system. The two parties are polarizing
further & further apart to the point of being
natural enemies, like lions and hyenas, (take your
pick who is who).
When, as Eugene points out here, the rep.‘s gain
their slimmer than expected majority (I expect in
both houses), it will not be the 2/3rds majority to
overide executive veto.
We’re going to see how a truly lame, self-absorbed,
ego-centric, arrogant, wasteful, and disrespectful
federal government can become even more so. We will
become even less informed of our governments doings
(like that could be possible) since the media will
be covering the congressional in-fighting for all
the dollars it will be worth.
A coworker once told me that spam & bullets were
the only things worth buying - I thought he was a
nut, but now I’m not so sure.
By the worm, October 19, 2010 at 5:39 am Link to this comment
Dear Eugene,
It is difficult to get enthused about the following; Obama has:
1. Gutted real financial reform (no Glass-Steagle, no ‘too big too fail)
2. Rejected the only health care option that would simultaneously extend
coverage and cut costs (single payer)
3. Supported a stingy stimulus (one-third tax breaks)
4. Doubled-down & accelerated the Bush bailouts
5. Escalated a fruitless war in Afghanistan
6. Not helped people in bankruptcy & needing mortgage remediation
7. Not passed a jobs bill & had trouble extending unemployment compensation
8. Ignored previous Republican profligacy, crimes, misdemeanors
9. Used “Heck of a Job, Timmy” to promote low taxes for the wealthy on capital
gains, dividends and ‘carried interest’
10. Sandbagged the ‘Budget Commission’ with Max Baucus clones to cut cut
cut.
If you’re a Democrat, you cannot get enthused about supporting decisions such
as the ten listed above.
We are saddled with a politically inept President; these decisions demonstrate
Obama’s political ineptitude:
A. Kept Bush advisors in the two key areas where people wanted change - the
Economy and the “War on Terror”
B. Believed unrealistically (and kept believing) the Republicans would line up for
“bi-partisanship”
C. Opted to not lead or even act as the “Great Explainer” in the non-Reform of
Health Care
D. Opted to not lead or even act as the “Great Explainer” in the non-Reform of
the Financial System
E. Fled almost all leadership roles in favor of an ‘insider game’ he did not
understand and could not win
Again, it is difficult to get enthused about a politically inept leader.
The so-called enthusiasm gap is of the Democrats own making.
The Democrats have pursued Republican policies (see above list of 10); there is
very little to be enthusiastic about Democrats who pursue Republican policies.
The Democratic President is only a nominal Democrat.
In just a few weeks, Obama’s actions will have cost the country an entire
generation of Democratic leaders, and will be welcoming the opportunity to
practice his beloved ‘bi-partisanship’.
Pity the middle class; pity the Democratic Party - it was put to death by its own
Report thiselected officials.
By ardee, October 19, 2010 at 4:55 am Link to this comment
“Posturing, not policy” is a rather excellent definition of our entire political process these stormy days.
If one looks for cuts it might behoove one to consider how much the war costs this nation each and every day. It might be worth a mention to our Tea Party friends that Ronald Wilson Reagan, that icon of the right and Boraxo salesman par excellance, raised taxes twice during his administration. Far from being a deficit hawk he actually set the record for the largest deficit in US history, broken only by Shrubya.
But the real and essential question, untouched by democratic loyalists like Mr. Robinson, remains the staunch loyalties displayed by both major parties towards the MIC, towards waste, unchecked extravagance and fealty to the corporations providing the funds that fuel our increasingly expensive campaigns.
The sad facts remain, despite the refusal of said loyalists to face reality, that the differences between a democratic regime and a republican one is usually slim to none. Look, as prime example, to the current administration and its heinous similarities to the previous one in far too many instances. I have repeatedly mentioned endless war, torture, a refusal to deal with the no longer affordable waste in our defense industry or the waste in general that would make unnecesary the repeated calls for cuts in “entitlements”. I touch upon the absence of re-regulation , so necessary to the health of the nation and the planet as well. Let us dwell for a moment upon that icon of democrats everywhere, Bill Clinton and his budget balanced upon the backs of those he tossed off welfare, a republican solution if ever there was one. I am certain that, if one gives a bit of thought to the subject, that small list could grow quite larger.
Our system is sick and in dire need of healing, as the recourse would seem to be a continued unchecked slide towards fascism. Regardless of which party reigns. It is long past time to put aside loyalties, especially as unfounded as is the outmoded belief in a Democratic Party that exists only inmyth and the minds of tyhose whod well in the past.
Report thisBy FiftyGigs, October 19, 2010 at 4:39 am Link to this comment
It’s understandable for Eugene to be very cautious about this.
After all, his pundit buds and the so-called liberal media are apparently the faintest echo of the conservative echo chamber and little more. They certainly aren’t reflective of the base.
An excellent example is visible to you today.
The media story line is that Jack Conway “went too far” in Kentucky. Even the Democrats are aghast. The very eminent “doctor” Rand Not-My-Whole-First-Name Paul is so livid he won’t even shake Conway’s hand! OMG, Chris Matthews is sputtering! Conway has clearly blown it. It’s over!
Except.
Read the comments from average people, you know, the non-pundit class.
They are overwhelmingly supportive of Conway, who has dared to fight Paul with the truth, and Paul and the conservatives don’t like it one little bit.
Here’s the question though: why is the liberal media continually echoing the conservative perspective? Why are we constantly fed stories about the conservative common wisdom? Where is the activism of our side? Where are the liberals questioning the religious creds of these so-called Christians and their abhorrently un-Christian philosophies and closet of sinful peccadilloes?
There’s one other possibility Eugene skipped in his pantheon of electoral outcomes. What if… crazy as it may seem… what if… we vote.
What if we deny Boehner his curtains? What if we knock Beck for a loop? What if WE turn back the conservative’s anti-American strategy?
We can. Just vote. You don’t even have to believe, man. You just have to act. Election Day is your chance.
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