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The Shifting Balance of PowerPosted on Oct 27, 2010MARRAKECH, Morocco—As those bewitched (or intimidated) by China’s contemporary growth and new political claims know all too well, the world has been run by the Western powers since the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution. World pre-eminence once belonged to China, from the high civilization of Hsuan Tsung in the eighth century to the Sung Dynasty in the 10th, as it once did to the contemporaneous Arab Caliphates, at a time when feudal Europe was a backwater. But times change (as modern American tea partyers, among others, are noticing). The practice of those who run the modern world is to hold conferences to talk about what’s happening, what the future is likely to bring and what if anything can be done about it. These, in my professional lifetime, have always been conceived, organized and dominated by Westerners, mainly American and West European. Since 1973, when the rise of Japanese economic power made it imperative, Japan has been incorporated into these discussions, but has rarely asserted a claim to share the management of global affairs. In short, the modern world’s political and economic systems have been controlled by the West since at least the end of the Thirty Years’ War in 1648, which ended the Holy Roman Empire that was Rome’s successor and established the modern system of individual sovereign states, and the beginning of the 19th century and the Congress of Vienna, which ended the Napoleonic system. What was left of the great Christian and Muslim empires was finished off by the first and second world wars. The Cold War proved to be a fluke, taken seriously because of the existence of nuclear weapons and the modern addiction to ideological violence, and finished in 45 years. It was a trivial historical event. It left the United States to conduct what must now be concluded the misrule of what remained, with military interventions to “create democracy,” so that America’s own survival as a functioning and competent democracy must now be considered in doubt. Advertisement Today, China is near to becoming the nation with the largest gross domestic product. Since most of what China produces is of foreign design or technology, this could be compared with saying that China produces more coal than any other country on earth. So what? It is quality of civilization and culture, and the nature of a nation’s actions in international society, that affords historical greatness. Nonetheless, an epoch of Western world political domination is coming to an end. This is not simply an end to imperialism (new or old), but quite possibly the beginning of a probably long decline in the West’s primacy in industry, technology and scientific innovation. The political rise of Asia is obvious. China, Korea, India, Pakistan and the major Arab states (leaving out Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and rising states elsewhere) now are major influences upon the future not simply in their own regions but in the world. The American military eruption into Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, if it continues to fail, could easily end by destroying America’s global claims. Europe has played a largely passive role in all of this since the two world wars, and the future of the European Union remains very different to assess, on the political level at least. But in Western Europe there is now serious recognition that the world is assuming an entirely new shape in which the Europeans, collectively or as individual nations, will be part of a system in which Turkey, Iran, China, Japan, Korea, a new Russia and certain Latin American and other states will have an importance they have not possessed since 1940, and in which the present institutions of global “governance”—the U.N. system of functional organizations, the economic assumptions embodied in the post-Bretton Woods and “Washington consensus” economy, the G-20 and its parallel meetings—are clearly inadequate to the new era, intellectually as well as organizationally. In Marrakech, the third World Policy Conference has just concluded, in which nearly half the participants were from countries other than those of Western Europe and North America. This is all but unprecedented for a meeting with such eminent contributors and speakers. Although current events and politics intruded into the discussion, particularly concerning the economic crisis and the emerging powers, the program dealt with basic matters affecting the common future: food, population, climate, health, monetary and financial governance, energy and cyberspace. The affair, which is annual, is the work of the French Institute of International Relations, and its director, Thierry de Montbrial. It has been needed, is overdue and will make a difference. Visit William Pfaff’s website for more on his latest book, “The Irony of Manifest Destiny: The Tragedy of America’s Foreign Policy,” at www.williampfaff.com. © 2010 Tribune Media Services Inc. New and Improved CommentsWe are launching a major overhaul of our comments section. In addition to more robust spam filtering and moderation, new features include the ability to rate other comments, sort how they are displayed and respond directly via e-mail or in a thread. Unfortunately, commenters will lose their existing Truthdig identities. It's a pain, we know, but on the plus side you will now be able to log in with a plethora of options, including Google, Twitter, Facebook and Disqus accounts. Before launching this system we spent months in discussion with our top commenters. We listened to the feedback and we hope you like what we've come up with. Please direct any problems or concerns to us via our contact page. |
By G.Anderson, October 28, 2010 at 11:14 pm Link to this comment
And this is certainly, why we’re going to war, because only through our military can we prop up the greed of the plutocracy.
The plutocracy doesn’t like to lose out to anyone. At first they will sell off our ressources, to make up for that great sucking sound in the center of this country.
But soon after Americans are left starving and penniless the shooting will start..
And one day American’s will go to sleep by the light of a Red Chinese moon.
Unless through some miracle the plutocracy is deposed.
Report thisBy OI812, October 28, 2010 at 8:00 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
Gerard:
Report thisI would be wary using the word prove when it comes to any study given studies
operate under certain controls and cannot take into account the infinite
variables and interpretations of the variables ref chaos theory. Generally
speaking, among the variables would be resource depletion ref Collapse the
book and the subsequent wars. Others would say Catholicism play a large part
in large families. Others, the agrarian lifestyle. I have also read the women’s
rights re: education have played a part in the reduced number of kids and its
ripple effects to so called third word nations, which, from personal observation,
maintain healthy intact communities and family structures without personal
amenities BLING!. Which is a lesson we Americans and EU will hopefully
appreciate as our so called standards of living continues to fall and we need to
rely more on ourselves and others in the community and the rewards that
human connection brings which is it really quantifiable? Again, from personal
experience, as a person in my late thirties, childless, as well as most of the
people I know, it is a personal educated decision because the writing has been
on the wall for decades as we continue to extend and pretend and point fingers
everywhere else but at our personal selves. Part of me wonders if my decision
is based on a reaction to the Fear which is consistently and effectively spread
by the religions and governments and media as a means of control, which
means I lose unless I am able to share the awareness of personal potential and
what it means to believe and pursue ones positive attributes. The oldest
(western?) civilization, in Peru, discovered this century had musical instruments
but no weapons of warfare. It was wiped out due to shifting sands, not
invaders. Violence is a conditioned response and the easy, thoughtless way
out. We as individuals are not screwed because we can choose how to respond.
The USA may fall but people will perpetuate if they realign their minds.
By gerard, October 28, 2010 at 5:58 pm Link to this comment
The article might better have been called “The Shifting Imbalance of Power” now that oother powers are rising. Maybe those that held the recent World Policy Conference will prove to be somewhat more realistic than the so-called “Great Powers” that have rumbled across the stage of history for the past 1000 years of more, playing their “great games” of slaughter, domination and denial till forced by their own decadence to cease and desist.
Report thisHere’s hoping, but it’s going to take more knowledgle and compassion than we “Westerners” ever managed to incorporate into our way of doing business.
By morristhewise, October 28, 2010 at 2:10 pm Link to this comment
There is an unreported dimension to the Chinese success story. The brightest
Report thisstudents out of a population of 1.4 billion have flowed into their high tech
workforce, they have assembled the greatest concentration of brain power in world
history. A Chinese workforce of 200 million nerds has demanded the right to
become masters of a new world order, but the mentally challenged, confused, and
disenfranchised will not go down in defeat, the final battle will be between brawn
and brainpower.
By omygodnotagain, October 28, 2010 at 12:36 pm Link to this comment
Morristhewise
Report thisI agree with your thoughts, but lets examine why. Our financial experts and economists decided that the way to make money was by having all the manufacturing done cheaply in the third world and the marketing and sales in the first. They assumed the following: that the West would always be the main source of innovation, that it would lead to opening of new markets for those overseas workers. And finally if it all didnt work out the military and economic might of the US could be brought to bear to change the rules. What was not considered was that the only real value lay in the manufacturing, that the know how could be developed by the overseas partner. The lessons of the Car Industry were not learned. It was the US during the Korean War that it was decided Army Jeeps should be assembled in Japan. That directly led to the development and growth of the Japanese car industry. The wrong lesson was learned in the 1980s, when the Reagan administration pressured Japan to put factories in the West, the Japanesed buckled. They located factories here and in the UK. The Chinese are a very different proposition, they do not need or want US ‘protection”,as the Japanese do need, nor did they anticipate what the worldwide web would do for sharing information and the accompanying acceleration of innovation, clearly the country with the manufacturing would benefit most, because it now held the card. This is already happening in solar panels. There is no way to ‘save” America in the next decade, over 51% of our Graduate students are from overseas, from India and China mostly, who are our competition in addition we have created a culture whereby, bankers, real estate agents, sports stars, celebrities are what the young are being told to aspire to. Some years ago I was doing a story about a minister who was also a violent crimes division cop, I traveled all day with him. At the end of the day he said to me, all this work goes down the drain, the minute the pimp with the tailored clothes, hot babe on his arm and nice set of wheels steps out.
We are screwed.
By morristhewise, October 28, 2010 at 11:39 am Link to this comment
With the creation of the worlds fastest computer China no longer will be thought
Report thisof as the land of cheap labor, but also as a land inhabited by the worlds fastest
thinkers. Research and development was once monopolized by the US and it was
the leader in the race for new products, but a yellow horse has now taken the
lead. Unless the US regains its once creative workforce, it will finish out of the
money.
By Paul_GA, October 28, 2010 at 8:44 am Link to this comment
Moonraven has it right; as the Old Testament prophet Hosea said of ancient Israel, “They have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind” (Hosea 8:7).
Report thisBy omygodnotagain, October 28, 2010 at 4:41 am Link to this comment
Gerard
Report thisIn case you missed it the new Corruption Perception Index came out a few days ago, the US and israel didn’t make even the top 20
http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2010/results
By omygodnotagain, October 27, 2010 at 9:32 pm Link to this comment
Gerard
Report thisWhat is often forgotten is that population growth worldwide is due mainly to better health care. Big families were the norm worldwide, but now people are living longer. Paradoxically, by improving healthcare, people live longer and in the developing world more children survive childbirth. The most effective, but immoral way, to reduce population in the developed and developing world would be to reduce health programs. No-one is suggesting we should do that, but they should question the vast resources keeping people alive, when their natural lifespan is over. This is especially true in the US because most of our healthcare dollars go to keeping those on death’s door alive
By omygodnotagain, October 27, 2010 at 9:03 pm Link to this comment
Gerard
Report thisI appreciate you picking up on my sarcasm, the statistic that has always stuck with me was one from the 1990’s the Rio Population Convention, Al Gore was
pushing his environmental agenda; the entire population of Ethopia uses less resources than 250,000 Japanese. The problem in under developed countries is one faced in Europe at the turn of the 20th Century, poor women have children because they
want to be taken care of when sick and old. I have been reflecting a lot on Haiti recently, having met a nurse who was over there. She said when you cross over to the Dominician Republic it is like going to
wealthy country, because Haiti is so poor. Given that they live on an island with the same climate and resources and history, it comes down to cultural, social issues, the cultural mentality is what has to change. That’s my concern with Africa, no matter where you go in the world outside Africa, Blacks are at the bottom. It cannot all be put on the shoulders of slavery, though it has had a detrimental effect. When one looks at how Zimbabwe has descended from being a wealthy country into poverty, and in South Africa they have stopped turning farms over to blacks, because the crop yields are so low and they have gone from a food exporter to an importer. I cannot see how the issues will be solved in my lifetime
By moonraven, October 27, 2010 at 7:18 pm Link to this comment
Pretty pathetic comments, folks.
I see nothing sad whatsoever about the collapse of the US, a rogue state founded on genocide and slavery.
In fact, it’s overdue.
Report thisBy gerard, October 27, 2010 at 4:15 pm Link to this comment
omygodnotagain: Does anybody know where to find the study done some years ago that proved that populations automatically decrease when minimum necessary food,clothing and shelter are available; and that prolific breeding is largely due to extreme poverty where many children are thought necessary in order to provide the family with more beggars after the prevalent high death rate has taken its toll?
Report thisI’m not suggesting that it’s a good idea to depend only on this change (though birth control education would help). But I’m interested in taking the prejudice out of statements like: “The real issue today is how do we neuter all these chronically backward and poor people who reproduce babies at an insane rate?”
Lots of people won’t get the sarcasm! They’ll take the statement at face value and set out on a “neutering of them all” campaign on the premise that it’s “for their own good” etc. etc. Never underestimate the power of hysteria and ignorance.
It is also worth repeating that, although the US birthrate is comparatively low, we drain far more of the world’s resources and pollute the world far more than impoverished countries—unless our corporations have moved in on them.
By morristhewise, October 27, 2010 at 3:56 pm Link to this comment
After begging my dear friend to invest his profits back into the US economy he
Report thisturned a deaf ear to my pleading. 15 million dollars was invested in a Beijing
construction company employing 5 thousand Chinese workers. In a recent letter he
claims to have doubled his investment and shows no guilt for his lack of
patriotism. I told him never to write again and hope he becomes bankrupt and
spends the rest of his life receiving Chinese water torture.
By omygodnotagain, October 27, 2010 at 3:35 pm Link to this comment
SarcastiCanuck
Report thisI really enjoyed your post, there are too many people and lots of them lead dead-end lives, in backward countries. I know this is shocking but they are taking up room, where a more industrious Asian could be. The real issue today is how do we neuter all these chronically backward and poor people who reproduce babies at an insane rate
By Blue Chicory, October 27, 2010 at 2:17 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
SarcastiCanuck, I wish I could have said all that and said it as well.
Report thisThanks!!!
By DavidByron, October 27, 2010 at 12:28 pm Link to this comment
Well make up your mind. Which is it? 1648 or the beginning of the 19th century. because there’s a lot of difference between an “epoch” of 400 years and one of 200. 200 years is not much of an epoch. More of a “blip”.
Was Europe really ahead of China in 1648?
Report thisBy David L. Drown, October 27, 2010 at 11:50 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
Man is by nature social, because his very survival as a species depended on a strong social structure. It was not survival of the most fit individual, it was survival of the fittest social group that assured our survival as a species. Social societies have existed long before man and probably every species that survived very long, did so because of strong group cooperation. Competition within social groups had to take a back seat in order for the social structure to thrive and survive. Survival of the citizen was less dependent on might and cunning and more on the strength and unity of the community.
Report thisOn the other hand weak communities without social bond, and even nations were easily destroyed either from within or from without, as history so warns us.
Evolution, ceased being based (if it ever was) on mere strength, and flourished more and more, based on social coherence and disciplines. Virtues like kindness, sympathy, caring, and a helping hand became the strengths that united a people into a coherent survival machine when faced with danger from either within or without. Only by building a stronger social network will capitalism and the overwhelming desire for wealth survive. Western Nations, led by the US have weakened to the point of becoming weak and helpless.
By raykeith7, October 27, 2010 at 11:40 am Link to this comment
Ur all finally seeing the writing on the wall.
Report thiswitnessing america unravel is sad but a fact.
the EU will soon become the ‘United States Of Europe’ & dominate all nations!
By SarcastiCanuck, October 27, 2010 at 10:15 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
So what !!! Americas not the king of the castle anymore.This means the Asians wiil become the biggest polluters,make the best iPod,have the best fast food joints,have the crappiest reality shows.What about the real problems outside of wealth and greed.All the problems that have no historical precedent because modern man created them.Whose going to reduce the overpopulation,poverty,crime,global warming,shortage of resources,war,mental illness….on and on.Does all this xenophobic one upmanship make our lives any better?With all of these global think tanks,intellectual conferences and elite posturing,is the real world getting any better?Just walk down the street and look at peoples faces,do they look happier.
Report thisMankind now seems to be mired in the endless quest for money and status.We are getting more superficial,ruthless,angry and solitary.You talk about power.What power?The power to impose your will,your ideology,your consumer goods,your culture?What?It seems that power has taken on a whole new abstract meaning that alludes me these days.
China’s growing power does not intimidate me one little bit.If you go there you will find that for the large majority of the billion plus Chinese,life is shit.They are mired in poverty,overpopulation,primitive living space and meager existances.As America should know by now,the size of your military or empire means squat in the 21st century.And the real problems just exacerbate with no forseeable solutions.
If all these new players on the world stage can solve the above mentioned problems of the world,I for one will bow down to them and I will bow low.
By Paul_GA, October 27, 2010 at 7:11 am Link to this comment
Y’know, it’s going to be almost amusing in the future to see a Repub in the White House trying to act on the world stage as if nothing has changed and this country is still as “strong” as it ever was. Imagine his/her frustration!
Get over it, I say; this country’s “day in the sun” is about over, and trying to act as if it’s not will only make things worse.
Report thisBy Mike789, October 27, 2010 at 6:21 am Link to this comment
“The Cold War proved to be a fluke, taken seriously because of the existence of nuclear weapons and the modern addiction to ideological violence, and finished in 45 years. It was a trivial historical event.”
Maybe a fluke, nonetheless, we now look upon it as a halcyon era where technology established a foothold which lead to the communications era in which we today find that geographical boundaries less significant. To belittle the era as “trivial” is to ignore the comcommitant advances in space, viz. satellites which made plain and irrevocable our ontological perception of planet Earth.
Report this