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May 23, 2013
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Political Math and Political PassionPosted on Jul 11, 2010If the midterm elections were held now, Republicans would likely take control of the House of the Representatives. It’s as hard these days to find a Democrat who’s not alarmed as it is to find a Cleveland Cavaliers fan who’s cheering for LeBron James. Worse for Democrats: They face two very different challenges, and addressing one could make the other worse. The outcome of the 2010 elections thus depends in large part on whether they can find a solution to a set of simultaneous equations before November. On the one hand, independent voters are turning on them. Democratic House candidates enjoyed a 51 percent to 43 percent advantage over the Republicans in 2008. This time, the polls show independents tilting Republican by substantial margins. But Democrats are also suffering from a lack of enthusiasm among their own supporters. Poll after poll has shown that while Republicans are eager to cast ballots, many Democrats seem inclined to sit this election out. The dilemma is that arguments that might motivate partisans could further alienate the less ideological independents. The classic formulation holds that the party can either move left to excite its base or move to the center to win back independents. Advertisement The GOP’s gridlock strategy was well thought out and has paid enormous dividends. Republican leaders understood that delay was their friend because the immediate elation over President Obama’s election was bound to wear off. And while Republicans erected their blockade, they insisted that all the nastiness arose from Obama’s failure to reach out to them. The politics of passive-aggressiveness worked twice over. Independents hated all the fighting. And even when Democrats won on health care and other issues, they emerged less with a renewed sense of purpose than with feelings of exhaustion and frustration over all the compromises it took to eke out victory. Turning all this around is a White House mission, and the president’s campaign stops last week in Missouri and Nevada previewed his effort to paint Republicans as both extreme and recalcitrant. His speech in Kansas City included one major innovation, an echo of a legendary 1940 assault by Franklin D. Roosevelt against his political opponents in Congress—“Martin, Barton and Fish.” Obama went after the alliterative trio of “Barton and Boehner and Blunt,” references to Reps. Joe Barton of Texas, John Boehner of Ohio and Roy Blunt of Missouri. Challenging them for their resolute opposition to every Democratic approach, Obama asked “if that ‘no’ button is just stuck.” He hopes that this Republican trinity can do double duty. It creates a tangible group of foes against whom Democrats can rally. And it reminds independents that a Republican vote this fall would not simply be a rebuke to Washington but also an affirmative ballot for Republican leaders who are none too popular themselves. Democrats are counting on a similar twofer from their attacks on the current brand of Republicanism as being too doctrinaire and too extreme. The energy that the tea party provides Republicans could be offset by a negative reaction in the electoral middle to the new movement’s ferocity. This is the GOP’s simultaneous equation puzzle: It must benefit all it can from tea party organizing without getting tarred by its members’ frequently radical outbursts. But there is an intangible: Passion counts in politics. It motivates a movement’s most fervent followers but can also carry along moderates attracted to those who promise change and profess great certainty about how to achieve it. Barack Obama got himself elected president by understanding this. Passion may come especially hard to Democrats this year, and even in the best of times, it can be difficult to muster among liberals. As the philosopher Michael Walzer observed in his book “Politics and Passion,” liberals by their very nature highly prize skepticism, irony and doubt. Walzer argued that “administrators do well when they follow their rational convictions,” but “political activists must be more passionately engaged, or else they will lose every struggle for political power.” On paper, Democrats have a rational solution to their political math problem. They must still find the passion that executing it will require. E.J. Dionne’s e-mail address is ejdionne(at)washpost.com. Previous item: Millions Watch Rich Guy Get New Job Next item: Obama’s Health Care Bill Is Enough to Make You Sick New and Improved CommentsIf you have trouble leaving a comment, review this help page. Still having problems? Let us know. If you find yourself moderated, take a moment to review our comment policy. |
By Maralynn, October 19, 2011 at 9:49 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
This ?free sharing? of ifnormaiton seems too good to be true. Like communism.
Report thisBy taikan, July 13, 2010 at 4:33 pm Link to this comment
“The GOP’s gridlock strategy was well thought out and has paid enormous dividends.”
The reason the GOP’s gridlock strategy worked so well is that Obama and Reid didn’t understand how to turn it against them. Instead of cutting deals that watered down reform and waiting until they had enough votes for cloture, they should have forced the Republicans to conduct actual filibusters. The TV coverage would have been great. Imagine 24 to 48 to 72 hours of coverage of Republicans saying nothing of substance while tying up the entire Congress in order to oppose real health insurance reform that included a public option, or an extension of unemployment benefits, or meaningful financial reform (instead of the half-baked reform currently on the table).
Despite having made large gains in the 1994 elections, Newt Gingrich’s decision to have the House Republicans shut down government resulted in the reelection of Bill Clinton in 1996. Unfortunately, neither Obama nor Reid learned from that.
Report thisBy diamond, July 13, 2010 at 1:47 pm Link to this comment
Can Americans really be this stupid? Yes they can! The idea of giving the Republicans control of anything, even a dog pound, after the chaos and destruction they’ve visited on everything from the economy to the environment to foreign policy belongs to the ‘He only hits me ‘cause he loves me’ school of thought. Ardee’s hard-breathing rhetoric is typical. It’s all about Obama and Obama’s a Bad Man. The theme song for voters like Ardee would be ‘Send in the Clowns’. And G. Anderson seems to think that electing the Republicans means that the voters don’t care what happens to the Democrats. Believe me GA it won’t happen to the Democrats- it will happen to you and every other voter and you won’t like it one bit. The idea that if the government you’ve elected doesn’t do exactly what you want, immediately, you replace them with psychopaths like Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich and the still undead Dick Cheney and walk away muttering ‘That’ll teach ‘em’ is absolute nonsense. If people stopped running their mouths and their blood pressure and informed themselves on what the Republicans really have planned for Americans and America they would never elect any of them- ever again. I know that’s not what Fox News says but Rupert Murdoch is in on the plan and lies for a living.
Report thisBy NABNYC, July 13, 2010 at 10:50 am Link to this comment
It’s too late. We had a date, the voters and the Democrats. For the junior prom, but they stood us up. Then for a summer dance, and no-show again. Then senior prom, and they came with another girl.
The supporters, those who campaigned for the Democrats last time, were pretty clear in what they wanted. End the wars. Indict and prosecute all the big boys from Wall Street, seize their assets, throw them in prison, and bust up their companies to stop them from doing this again. Indict and prosecute bush-cheney for war crimes. Create a national healthcare system which will allow Americans access to affordable healthcare on a non-profit basis. Invest in jobs and education.
On each issue the Democrats have spit in our faces. Okay. Maybe we’re the dumb kids, but we catch on eventually. Yes the Republicans are despicable, but I’m not going to bother voting for Democrats on that ground alone.
This is what it is. Let’s say some woman gets married, and her husband beats her, so she finally leaves him. Then she gets married again, but her second husband is a drunk, and steals her paychecks and spends it on booze. Should she stay with husband number 2 (the Democrats) because, after all, he doesn’t beat her? Or should she leave the bum and maybe stay single for awhile, see if she can’t find someone who will treat her better?
Yes the Republicans are awful. But the Democrats have broken our hearts, betrayed us. They deserve to lose.
Report thisBy christian96, July 13, 2010 at 2:54 am Link to this comment
your Brother To The North—-I like your idea but you
Report thisknow we Americans are an impatiet lot. We want
change and we want it right now. I don’t see change
coming through politics. Our politicians and Supreme
Court(a joke) decided they were going to kick God
out of things and do it man’s way. Well, take a look
around the world and see what doing it man’s way has
got us. A big mess. I hate to be the one that say’s
the Emperor has no clothes on but I’ll go ahead and
do it. What would this world be like if man decided
to quit playing God and let God do it? Well, one
big change is people would start loving one another.
Kind of hard to blow someone’s head off if you love
them. Second big change would be to start thinking
about the needs of others instead of your own selfish
needs and WANTS. We have the resources to meet the
NEEDS of all people if we would just do it. That
might mean giving up that trip to Vegas to give your
money to the parasites who live off others. That
might mean giving up going to the movies which are
polluting your mind and behavior anyway. I could
go on and on but you get the idea. Without God in
our lives mankind is headed down the black hole of
nothingness.
By FRTothus, July 12, 2010 at 4:05 pm Link to this comment
It would seem we really do have just 2 factions of
Report thisthe same right-wing (fascist) party, as Gore Vidal
has pointed out. It appears that they are both
working for the same donors, pursuing the same
agenda, but each playing a role on stage for us.
What we don’t have is representation, much less
promotion, of Labor, and it is only Labor that has
value. Yet time and again our very government has
used its goons to use violence and brutality to break
up strikes, the Democrats being only too happy to
send in the National Guard. Not that the Republicans
wouldn’t use them, that’s a given. The only
difference being how long they wait before sending in
the troops.
Our State escalates violence and promotes unfounded
fears. Machiavelli would be proud of our tin-pot
leaders.
There must be a more effective way to dissent besides
petition and protest, especially since they are as
ineffective as voting, and all the more counter-
productive as our stock market futures are stacked
upon the success of the very corporations that are
keeping wages down, exporting jobs, blaming the poor
in their press, and destroying our world with our own
money. It is our fault for letting them get away
with it, and shame on us for trusting ANY politician
or Party to do what they say. Every politician who
breaks a promise (which means practically all of
them) should be removed from office immediately. No
grace period, no apologies accepted.
By the worm, July 12, 2010 at 3:43 pm Link to this comment
It is not ‘ideological’ to oppose the half-assed way this administration has gone
about its business and the sell out of the middle class that has resulted.
Sorry, try again.
Report thisBy the worm, July 12, 2010 at 3:41 pm Link to this comment
Political Math:
If you count up all the Senators and Congressmen and Congresswomen who are
owned by the financial industry, pharmaceutical industry, health insurance
industry and energy industry, you will get way over 50 in the Senate and over
220 in the House.
Obama and the Democrats Conclusion:
Therefore, Dont present a people first agenda. Roll over on health care, pretend
you made financial reform, cut Social Security benefits and keep tax breaks for
hedgefund managers and the wealthy (dividends and capital gains), fund a
mindless and wasteful war, etc.
Then, say ‘it’s the Republicans’ fault’.
Well, folks might believe it’s the Republican’s fault, if the Democrats could put
forward a vision for the future that put the middle class at the center of their
policies. BUT either they wont or cant.
Too bad. It’s the Dems who’ve lost ‘the vision thing’.
Report thisBy rico, suave, July 12, 2010 at 2:58 pm Link to this comment
“The outcome of the 2010 elections thus depends in large part on whether they can find a solution to a set of simultaneous equations before November.”
The upcoming election isn’t a math problem, it’s an ideological problem. The public is extremely nervous about the huge mouthsful of the economy that the administration is wolfing down at the buffet table with no regard for the rest of the diners.
Report thisBy Your Brother to the North, July 12, 2010 at 2:34 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
Americans thought things would be better in 1 or 2 years .
People outside the U.S. saw this coming . An impatience and a desire for rapid change demanded by the American people
It would be very unfortunate if President Obama didn’t get more time to run his plan .
Report thisBy balkas, July 12, 2010 at 9:08 am Link to this comment
For me, reading ?all posts and all cullumns on DV is not at all different than reading-digesting NT, WP, LAT.
While 99.99% of americans see the king arrayed in best clothes ever i see only a naked king.
Unlike ellis, i assert that the FIRST CAUSE [or root cause] for all ills that befall us was the division of people into people and nonpeople.
Of course, the effects caused by FIRST CAUSE, also act as causes.
So, eating junk food and getting sick from it, appears as a trillionth x trillionth effect of one root cause.
Waging poverty and ignorance are also effects.
However, i assert, that only the removal of the FIRST CAUSE can remove all or most of the effects.
Working on any effect solely, is not gonna do it.
Yes, THEY, the AWFUL THEM, wage [cause] poverty also, but on nonpeople.
To put the cause for poverty or ignorance on nature wld mean that nature is really evil.
I assert nature cares for all of us abudantly. But the greatest hell on Earth are some people.
And if we don’t remove such cancer, the cancer wld eat us forever!
So expect worsening in every aspect of living and more of it for nonpeople and nonpeoples! tnx
Report thisBy christian96, July 12, 2010 at 8:06 am Link to this comment
On his program at 10 a.m. Pat Robertson reported
Report thisthat a high percentage of Americans believe President
Obama is leading this country to a Socialist state.
I would bet a dollar to a donut that over 90% of
people watching his program, The 700 Club, don’t
even know what a “socialist state” means. Yet,
knowing the words carry a negative connotation, he
uses them. Think he is trying to influence the vote
in November? A few months ago when a memorial was
held in Beckley, West Virginia to the 29 miners killed in a mine explosion President Obama spoke at
the memorial asking the families and friends of the
miners to seek God for comfort. President Obama also
mentioned Psalm 23 in his speech. The next day I
watched Pat Robertson’s 700 Club to see what he would
say about Pres. Obama’s speech. He said nothing. He
completely ignored the speech and the memorial to
the deceased miners. You would think that Saint
Robertson would want his Christian audience to know
that their President mentioned God and quoted from
the Bible. Not a word was spoken. In case you don’t
know one of the ten commandments is “Do Not Use The
Name of God In Vain.” That means don’t use or neglect the name of God for your own political agenda. Someone should tell Saint Robertson.
By G.Anderson, July 12, 2010 at 6:59 am Link to this comment
Here’s a thought, instead of B.S., and manipulation, maybe the Democrats should do what elected them to do, instead of bowing and scraping to the plutocracy…
Otherwise no one will care what happens to them.
Report thisBy balkas, July 12, 2010 at 6:44 am Link to this comment
Americanism is not americanism applied. It being an ism, it cannot be ever understood. This is valid for every ism.
Isms are ab ideations and when confined to the level of thinkig, no harm may arise out of the theoretical knowledge-ideating.
This is what shld be free! In cuba also, but not with american threats and sanctions against it!
What we need to look at what is happening on living level.
When we look what catholics, islamists, talmudniks, asocialists do, we obtain knowledge.
We obtain knowledge only thru our five senses and which we spread by discriptions only and not by theory, conclusions, blame, condemnation, personalization, wishful thinking, etc.
Natch, every collumnist and nearly every poster avoids descriptions of events; preferring personalizing events, wishfulness, blame, lament, pet peeving-theorizing, and the like. tnx
Report thisBy blueshift, July 12, 2010 at 6:32 am Link to this comment
my lack of passion is due entirely to the nonperformance of Obama - his failure to respond, lead and inspire on issues that matter most to American citizens. Instead, he has proven to be just another corporatist. That’s why I am sitting this one out. Makes no difference who I vote for.
Report thisBy ardee, July 12, 2010 at 4:52 am Link to this comment
So, most of us poor dumb voters are not “ideological”, a remark rather dismissive and perhaps echoing my experience with the Democratic Party leadership. Anyone who has experienced a community Democratic club understands fully how the State and National leadership ignores the local clubs until such time as they are needed to contribute money or time during election cycles.
Now I fully understand this penchant for treating its base as serfs, we are, after all, too dumb to understand decisions and we know little to nothing about policies and agendas.
What we poor dumb voters do understand is manipulative articles, loss of jobs while Industry receives most favorable treatment for exporting said jobs, losing ones home while the financial institutions responsible for about two million foreclosures gets carloads of money thrown at it.
Vote Green, its a good start.
Report thisBy BarbieQue, July 12, 2010 at 3:52 am Link to this comment
If Obama had done even 1/4 of what he campaigned on there would be no political math problem and the author could write about summer in the Hamptons. Or why Levi apologized to the Palins.
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