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May 25, 2013
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 Obama’s Tenuous LeadPosted on Feb 26, 2012
If the election were held right now, President Obama would likely win by about the same margin that propelled him into office in 2008. But how fragile are his current advantages? The biggest concern for the Democrats (and the best hope for the GOP) is that the president’s lead is far from overwhelming, even though Republicans—and particularly Mitt Romney—have been badly weakened by their nomination battle, and Obama has been left largely unmolested by the conservative super PACs. Democrats are certainly disappointed by the apparent fading of Rick Santorum in the final week before the Michigan primary and his surprisingly disjointed performance in last week’s debate. It’s not as clear to me as it is to others that Santorum would be less competitive than Romney as Obama’s opponent. What’s plain is that Democrats have an interest in the Republican contest going on indefinitely. Romney victories in Tuesday’s Michigan and Arizona primaries would likely shorten the process, and ending the nomination battle quickly is the precondition for a Republican counteroffensive. They need one. Up to now, the Republican battle has played entirely into Democratic hands. The Democrats need upscale voters to cast ballots on the basis of social issues and a general revulsion over the Republicans’ lurch rightward. They need working-class whites to look past social issues and focus on economic inequality and the GOP’s continued insistence on cutting the taxes of rich people. That’s exactly what’s happening. Obama won in 2008 even though he ran 18 points behind in the white working class. Until recently, he was drifting far lower than that, and Democrats were shellacked in House races in 2010 because they lost these voters by 30 points. Obama has now recouped the share he will need among blue collars—and in the process strengthened himself substantially in the Midwest—by making economic fairness a central theme of his re-election campaign. He’s been helped by a rise in public confidence that the economy is finally recovering. Advertisement At the same time, social moderates—particularly women—have been appalled by the direction of the Republicans on issues such as contraception, and also by the sharp turn to the social-issue right by many Republican-controlled state governments. Virginia put itself at the center of this when its Legislature came close to passing a law that would have subjected women to a highly intrusive ultrasound before they could receive an abortion. National outrage led Bob McDonnell, Virginia’s Republican governor who would very much like to be his party’s vice presidential candidate, to scale back the bill’s requirements. But the GOP’s self-correction in Virginia is also a warning for Democrats. Republicans, now aware that they are on a losing track, may begin to engineer a series of course changes. The fact that House Republicans reached agreement with the president to continue the payroll tax holiday is the clearest sign that the party realizes how a far more assertive Obama is dangerous to them in a way that the conciliatory Obama of last year’s debt-ceiling battle was not. Moreover, while Obama’s lead in some polls is significant—in Friday’s Real Clear Politics poll averages he led Romney by five points and Santorum by six—his job approval ratings are still in the middling range. A recent Pew survey, for example, pegged his approval at 45 percent among independents, a big increase over his 37 percent rating last month, but far from commanding. Any reversal of the economic recovery could endanger even this level of support. All of which explains why Romney desperately has to win Michigan this Tuesday and effectively shut down the nomination fight by the end of the Super Tuesday primaries on March 6. A Romney no longer driven by the need to pander to the right could regroup and reposition himself. He could spend some quiet time with his consultants who need to give him intensive retraining on how to talk to (and about) average Americans. And the super PACs, fueled by millionaires eager to avoid the tax rates Obama is promising, could fire away freely, field-testing messages and searching for the president’s points of weakness. Obama is far better off than he was six months ago. But he cannot afford to go wobbly or to let the good news go to his head.
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By oddsox, February 28, 2012 at 6:33 pm Link to this comment
vector56, important to remember that Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were each considered B-teamers when they first declared.
Things change & though I get your points from the Huffington Blog, this election is far from settled.
Report thisBy heterochromatic, February 28, 2012 at 2:48 pm Link to this comment
vec—- the problem with your theory is that you would need to show who the
actual “contenders” in the Republican Party are.
Report thisChristie is a neophyte and Bush, being a Bush, is currently unelectable.
By vector56, February 28, 2012 at 2:38 pm Link to this comment
Remember the old mobster movies where the crime boss order his guy (a prize fighter) to “take a dive” so he can bet against him (Shades of credit default swaps). Other than Ron Paul the entire line up of “B” team characters in the Republican primary remind me of a parade of decoys. Keep your eyes on the “shinny” flamboyant Republicans while the adults take care of the real business in a smoke filed back room (don’t tell Michelle about the smoke filled room). Like Michael Moore, I too wondered when the guys on Wall Street would present “their guy”?
You see these guys play for keeps! The Koch Brothers and their ilk would not prop up theses “B” team clowns on the Republican side if their was no backup plan. Herman Cain, Newt, and Michele Bachmann, Newt, Romeny and Santorum were probably told to “get out there, make some noise” (we love a spectacle), distract us from what is going on behind the curtain. What’s in it for the “decoys”? Book deals, speaking fees, and maybe even the occasional “action figure”. The fact that their “A” team (Jeb Bush, Chris Christie…) won’t touch this election with a ten foot pole suggest that “the fix is in!”
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/12/10/1043958/—Taking-a-Dive-?via=blog_744899
Report thisBy heterochromatic, February 28, 2012 at 11:42 am Link to this comment
Schlee—and you’re one incident away from screaming that the sky is falling.
Report thisBy heterochromatic, February 28, 2012 at 8:13 am Link to this comment
4Mulch——-the choice of our troops is as important as the choice of postal
Report thisworkers
By Leefeller, February 28, 2012 at 7:43 am Link to this comment
Well, if political promises are supposed to be real, even if the candidate has his toes crossed, it is not fair to the people in the room if those campaign promises are only intended to suck in the maddening minions.
What I am getting at, is the Republicans are making campaign promises which make a despot like Hitler smile, and if these Republicans keep these promises, it will be a lot better then Obama who kept only a few and had to fight the obstructionist Congress for the rest which never materialized, because the Republicans had a goal to make this country so much better doing the bidding of the 1 percent while denying Obama any of his Socialist agenda items.
As for Ron Paul he makes sense on one or two items and the rest place him with the other Republicans.
I have not heard Jill Stine, but far as I can tell she could promise half of what Obama promised in 2008 and if she is obstructed like he was, do you really suppose she can get something done?
Well, the Supremos are going to decide on the Sicko Pack ruse, so lets see what happens, you should hold your breath! Maybe we will get the money back to where it was?
Report thisBy 2much2much, February 28, 2012 at 5:05 am Link to this comment
If there was a live debate between Obama & Ron Paul, the teleprompter president wouldn’t stand a chance against the choice of our troops. Support our troops! Buy a yellow ribbon sticker for your car??? Snap out of it!
Report thisBy Marc Schlee, February 27, 2012 at 11:59 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
*******
The United States is exactly one major terrorist incident away from becoming the Fourth Reich.
FREE AMERICA
REVOLUTIONARY (DIRECT) DEMOCRACY
*******
Report thisBy ReadingJones, February 27, 2012 at 8:59 pm Link to this comment
Obama has attacked freedom of conscience. No matter
your beliefs about abortion that ought to concern
you.
He has attacked the right to due process. He claims
the right to kill citizens of our country and we are
supposed to trust him not to abuse it.
His housing “reform” is nothing but a gift to the
bottom fishing vulture capitalists. It will turn the
vast majority of Americans into renters at the mercy
of the Predator Class.
The Pope himself has described his actions as an
attack on Catholics. Even progressive liberal
Catholics (and there are many such) are aghast. The
Baptists, and the Lutherans and many other mainline
Protestants are with us in our disgust and fear. We
ca not accept this attack on the right to freedom of
religion. Thousands and thousands of Catholics have
been martyred all over the world in defense of the
idea of freedom of conscience. Even now Catholics are
being hacked to to death by machete
in Nigeria.
Even rabbits will fight when backed against a wall.
Sixty years ago John Steinbeck wrote a book called
“The Moon is Down” It is instructive about the
reaction of free men to the imposition of Tyranny.
I grieve for the suffering to come.
Report thisBy SoTexGuy, February 27, 2012 at 6:24 pm Link to this comment
Dump Obama. Bring in a true progressive liberal candidate.
Win or lose the Democrats would at least have some integrity.
Adios.
Report thisBy oddsox, February 27, 2012 at 3:32 pm Link to this comment
hetero & Michael Calvan—
Report thisThis looks like a link to excerpts from that Truthout interview w/Dr. Jill Stein about 1 month ago:
http://www.ontheissues.org/Archive/Stein_Truthout_Jill_Stein.htm
By sciencehighway, February 27, 2012 at 3:24 pm Link to this comment
Those who have decided to sit out this election due to (fairly justifiable) disappointment over Obama not turning out to be the progressive we all hoped for, not to mention those seriously considering voting for Ron Paul (please, please read his full agenda first) may be missing the larger picture.
There’s only one issue that truly that matters to the future of this country, and that’s the number 5. Five Supreme Court justices can change the direction of the country for a generation, with Citizens United and the 2000 election providing some egregious examples. The next president will very likely have a chance to replace retiring justices. You’ve already how President Obama leans when it comes to this issue, and it’s not hard to guess which way the next Republican president would go. Please think very carefully about who you want holding that power and vote accordingly.
Report thisBy heterochromatic, February 27, 2012 at 3:11 pm Link to this comment
Quinn—- protest against the presidential candidates and work locally to build
Report thisawareness and support for a better agenda.
By Bird48, February 27, 2012 at 3:11 pm Link to this comment
There is no reason for the Dems to be woried about their chosen one winning the election—he is certain to. It matters not how little he has done right; it matters not how he has betrayed all his supporters; it matters not that he is nothing more than a corporate shill.
He will once again win the election based this time on that most disgusting premise possible—the lesser of two evils. So the evil will continue after winning by a landslide and the lowest voter turnout in history. He will call it a mandate. I will call it disgusting.
Report thisBy Cheryl Quinn, February 27, 2012 at 2:56 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
Whats a progressive Democrat to do this election?With Obama,there is so much lacking in seeking truth and justice and peace and non-violence,preserving the environment from pollution and in strengthening our public schools,public libraries and civic responsibilities and the integrity of our elections and voter rights.Forgive me if I find his leadership for peace and justice and human rights uninspiring for a winner of the Nobel Peace Prize.What has he done to reform our out of control justice system, marching onward to imprison an ever larger segment of our society. This is immoral and unethical….The prosecution of whistleblowers a terrible injustice and betrayal of campaign promises for open government!..My heros are the everyday people who valiantly show up to nurture and educate and heal and protect and serve others,our children,our elderly,the ill and those imprisoned and those who serve humanity with Drs Without Borders, Human Rights watch,the International Rescue Committee, etc. ..So who do we vote for? Our President is mum on the police violence in our society,abusing demonstrators,misuse of tazers,the quick use of violence against citizens.Where is the outcry on torture from our President?....Where are wallstreet prosecutions? This is no “man of the people”.Then there is Ron Paul. So much of what he stands for is the destruction of our societal safety net and removal of much that is good and necessary and in the public interest. Yet he defends civil liberties and the constitution,would bring our soldiers home,and would not go so eagerly to police the world and do corporations biddings.What essential presidental powers and duties and responsibilities do we put above all others? I donated to Obama last election but am seriously thinking Ron Paul may be the best of the two choices. I do think he could be trusted to do right by our citizens in the end.Also,I do not think he would be able to nor choose to end all our social programs.Meanwhile the rest of the Republican candidates are running off the cliff of public opinion with their bizarre positions on womens rights,birth control,religon,privatization of public resources and on and on… Perhaps it is a good thing we have more time to consider our choices for President and for the candidates to show their true character for our review!
Report thisBy heterochromatic, February 27, 2012 at 2:51 pm Link to this comment
odd——-Stein made herself available for an interview that was published on
Report thisTruthout, and it seems highly probable that she would consent to something on
this site.
By oddsox, February 27, 2012 at 2:51 pm Link to this comment
“Any reversal of the economic recovery could endanger (Obama’s tepid) level of support.”
—EJ Dionne
No sh:t, Sherlock.
In the end, Jobs and the Economy will decide.
I’ve written that the Friday Nov 2 unemployment report will predict the winner.
8.5% or higher, Obama’s out, no matter his opponent.
8.4% or better and Bar-ack is Back.
(disclaimer—all bets off if Ron Paul goes 3rd party.
He said he won’t, but if he does, Michelle can go ahead and order those new drapes. (I like the ones Meryl Streep wore last night—ouch!))
Time will tell…8 months from next Tuesday.
Report thisBy heterochromatic, February 27, 2012 at 2:49 pm Link to this comment
Michael….you’re the one who offered an opinion without basis in fact.
I would be quite happy if your offering were the truth , but it simply is not and you
Report thiscan’t offer up anything to support it.
By Michael Cavlan RN, February 27, 2012 at 2:35 pm Link to this comment
hetro
I understand that is the talking point of the Democratic Party establishment.
As the saying goes, you are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts. Democrat apologists like EJ Dionne and yourself are entitled to your own delusions.
In the meantime
It is better to light a candle than curse the darkness
ROCKY ANDERSON FOR PRESIDENT
Report thisBy oddsox, February 27, 2012 at 2:31 pm Link to this comment
Michael Calvan:
hetero’s right.
2010 was a vote of no confidence for Obama’s overall record & the wars played a very small role.
This time will be different because it’s also a referendum on the Repubs.
Who can/will lead our economy forward?
It’ll be about the Economy and Jobs.
http://open.salon.com/blog/oddsox/2012/02/21/why_obama_is_favored_to_win_in_2012_—_and_how_to_beat_him
PS: Wouldn’t mind seeing a TruthDig article by/about Rocky Anderson or Jill Stein.
Report thisThey should at least be a blip on the radar by now.
On the other hand, who supports them besides you and David Cyr?
By StephenS777, February 27, 2012 at 2:15 pm Link to this comment
If Obama has a “tenuous lead” it wouldn’t be because he and his staff spent the last years kicking his base in the teeth at every opportunity, would it? Oh no, it couldn’t be that.
It wouldn’t be because his key staff appointments and selection of key advisors reflect nothing more than his abject obedience, acquiescence and surrender to Wall Street and the Corporate oligarchy, would it? Oh no, it couldn’t be that.
I could go on but I won’t. Most readers of this mostly excellent website know what’s what. If Obama does lose the (s)election, it will be because he’s betrayed everything he claimed to stand for (which claims were, of course, lies to start with) and no amount of fear mongering about him being the lesser of two evils will change my mind about him. He’s shown me over and over again that he doesn’t care about people like me. In fact, his actions, his policies, his appointments all show him to have nothing but contempt for people like me. I’d never vote for one of these fascist, racist, sexist, homophobic Republicans and I certainly will not be voting for Obama. If he and his corporate-beholden Democratic Party take another shellacking it will be one they have worked unceasingly to obtain.
Obama is just lucky the Republican Party ran the b-team against him and even against this field of second-stringers, he has a “tenuous lead” and might not win.
Two articles everyone should read 1) The Obama Memos, 2) Obama’s Original Sin (Frank Rich).
OK, now you can go back to more name-calling and reviling me for not supporting the charlatan Obama. If he does not win you’ll have to look at his record, his actions, his appointments and don’t come crying to me. His defeat, if it comes, will be earned by his record and his actions not because the people he spent years kicking in the mouth didn’t support him. If he does win, so what, it will only be more of the same—best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.
Oh, no, a tenuous lead—I’m trembling with fear: NOT.
Report thisBy heterochromatic, February 27, 2012 at 2:03 pm Link to this comment
Cavlan, you’re just wrong and making up stuff that suits your POV. 2010 wasn’t
about “Obama didn’t end the wars” at all.
the people who were elected in 2010 were more in favor of wars than was Obama.
Report thisBy Michael Cavlan RN, February 27, 2012 at 1:36 pm Link to this comment
EJ Dionne
What a hack. With comments like the Dems taking a shallacking because they lost white working class people. Insinuating that the Democrats lost them because ll the Archie Bunkers did not support Obama.
The truth, speaking as a a white (Irish actually) working class person is this.
The Democrats lost in 2010 because lots of people voted for ending the wars in 2006. Dems won overwhelmingly and the wars continued. Obama won 2008 and the Hope and Change express, managed by Madison Ave then bought and paid for by Wall Street won.
The wars continued, deepened and spread. Wall Street got bailed out. By the Goldmann Sachs folks like Timmy Geitner. Installed by Obama.
All very easily proven and can counter this nonsense.
Question is, why does this drivel continue to be published here?
Why no articles about Rocky Anderson or Jill Stein?
Report thisBy ReadingJones, February 27, 2012 at 10:57 am Link to this comment
@heterochromatic
I am staring a campaign to rename Idaho North
Mississippi. It is no accident that the Aryan
Nations, Randy Weaver and the Klan found Idaho a
congenial place.
Rick Santorum recently made a campaign swing through
Northern Idaho seeking money and votes. Just north of
Couer deA’lene is a small town named Athol. Yep that
is how it is pronounced . I really hoped that ol Rick
would make a trip up there to seek contributions from
the citizens er, denizens in the school gym. But,
alas he missed his chance.
If you need an explanation look up Dan Savage of
Report thisSeattle.
By heterochromatic, February 27, 2012 at 12:51 am Link to this comment
decent analysis as far as it goes but ignores that the GOP isn’t really able to
correct itself all that much….or there wouldn’t be yet another buffoon
challenging Romney at this point.
the GOP primary voters simply are desperate not to nominate Romney and have
flirted with asshole after asshole after asshole Bachmann (!!!!!), Perry, some
black guy that sold pizza, the crazy and delusional RoPaul, Gingrich, and now
this knuckleheaded twit Sanctimonious.
Unless things go entirely to heel in a hurry, even a weakened Obama will be
able to stomp on whatever the goppers throw at him.
none of this is good for the country. better candidates, better ideas needed.
Report thisVote for Winn!!! He’s the Death of the Party!
By EmileZ, February 27, 2012 at 12:35 am Link to this comment
It is sad that Democrats spend their time worrying about things like “the fading of Rick Santorum”.
Report this