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Gorbachev’s ‘New Policy Forum’ Hints at the Future

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Posted on Oct 13, 2010

By William Pfaff

SOFIA, Bulgaria—The most striking phenomenon at the discussions taking place at the New Policy Forum held here last weekend, under the sponsorship of Moscow’s Gorbachev Forum and the Bulgarian Slavyani Foundation, was that the great American “Long War” on global terror and violent extremism was not once mentioned. No one seemed to think it worth attention, although the present national outlook for the U.S. was alluded to, usually in pessimistic terms.

Since the conference participation was East-Central European and Eurasian, as well as West European-British-American, this seemed an interesting comment on how little interested others are in Washington’s present military and geostrategic preoccupations.

There was much more interest in the various possible future configurations of global political and economic power of Russia and its Central Asian and Caucasian neighbors, the European Union bloc (to which Bulgaria is the most recent adherent), and China.

The formal subject was “Europe Looks East,” and while that seemed to mean Atlantic and Central Europe looking at Russia and beyond, more important was Western Europe looking at relations between Europe and Russia, plus Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova. The second perplexing subject was the Balkans, still the location of Europe’s most persistent (and contagious) troubles, including those of Western Europe’s own problems in dealing with Balkan immigrants and migrants.

In Balkan state relations, much now is blamed by the interested parties on the American-drafted Dayton Accords that ended the Wars of Yugoslav Succession, following NATO bombing of Serbia, and the effective amputation of Kosovo from Serbia (which left several other ethnically defined nations on the fringes, in parlous independence).

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However the American intervention was the consequence of Western Europe’s own disgraceful refusal to deal seriously with the Yugoslav succession wars, instigated by Serbia’s efforts to seize the Serbian-populated areas of neighboring Croatia and Bosnia. Instead of demanding that Slobodan Milosevic desist, under threat of a (U.N.-mandated) European military intervention (the U.S. refrained—“we have no dog in this fight,” James Baker said, and indeed it was time for Western Europe to assume responsibility), the Europeans settled for an absurd and pusillanimous U.N. peacekeeping resolution and mission.

Since there was no peace to keep, this mission spent its time being shot at by both sides until the Srebrenica massacre in 1995, and Serbia’s repression of the Kosovo population, prompted the Europeans to appeal to the U.S. for help. NATO’s bombing of Bosnia and Herzegovina followed, and then of Serbia, until the Dayton Accords ended the war.

These events produced several troublesome precedents: NATO’s illegal bombing intervention, and Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence in 2008, confirmed in international law in 2010. (It has been suggested that on the Kosovo precedent, the Palestinians could demand U.N. enforcement of their national independence within the territories assigned Palestine by the U.N. partition of the country in 1948. Caucasian irredentists also have taken note of the possibilities of unilateral declarations of independence.) It has also left the EU with the question of admitting the Balkan states still outside it—and, if not, what to do about them.

Turning to the larger geopolitical issues, Russian membership in the EU was broached, not too seriously, as was Russia’s joining NATO. The latter would seem to make NATO’s existence rather pointless, although presumably leaving the U.S. as the permanent leader, which would please Washington. The mission of the alliance in the past was to fight Russia. Now it seems to be to fight America’s wars, which one would think Russia reluctant to do. (What would Georgia and the Baltic states make of Russian membership, since their main reason for belonging to NATO is to be protected from Russia?)

Among the Russians present at the meeting, and some of the Europeans, there seemed to be more interest in a Russian-European Union grouping—Mikhail Gorbachev’s “Common European Home”—which offers peaceful relations as well as economic and trade advantages, especially with respect to energy markets and supplies. However, under Vladimir Putin, at least, this relationship with Russia is understood in Western Europe as containing an unspoken danger, implying possibilities ranging from political intimidation by Russian energy suppliers, to wholesale energy blackmail, a serious source of conflict.

No one knows quite what to make of China’s future, nor of what its role would be in a future global geopolitical scheme, the possibilities seemingly including conflict with the U.S. over Far Eastern domination (or global rule, as the neo-conservatives would suggest). During the Cold War, there was concern in Europe concerning the U.S. and the USSR’s dividing up Europe between them. What would Japan make of an (improbable, let me add) American-Chinese political condominium? All of this leaves the Afghanistan war seeming simple. All the NATO allies have to do is to go home, and leave the Afghans (Talibans and the others), Pakistanis, Pushtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Pamirs and Indians to settle the region’s problems among themselves, which, in the end, is what they will do.

Visit William Pfaff’s website for more on his latest book, “The Irony of Manifest Destiny: The Tragedy of America’s Foreign Policy” (Walker & Co., $25), at www.williampfaff.com.

© 2010 Tribune Media Services Inc.


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Anarcissie's avatar

By Anarcissie, October 17, 2010 at 6:08 pm Link to this comment

The right wing has no intention of destroying the government.

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Paul_GA's avatar

By Paul_GA, October 17, 2010 at 6:08 pm Link to this comment

I don’t think the right wing wants to “destroy” the government so much as it wishes to control it, Robert. But often, forces are released which cannot be controlled, which take on a life of their own. Frankenstein’s monsters, you might call these forces.

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Leefeller's avatar

By Leefeller, October 16, 2010 at 8:34 am Link to this comment

Politics of war, make little sense as does the politics of politics, I suspect even more so to the people who died for reasons unknown to them.

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By Robert, October 15, 2010 at 6:48 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

There are a couple of factors in the present situation that
seem likely to heavily influence what direction events take
following an implosion of the U.S. government.  First, the
system that produces and distributes the necessities of life
is highly complex and easily subject to disruption.  What,
if any, powerful entities can keep a system running to meet
at least the minimum requirements for physical survival of
the population?  Second, who would pssesss the paramount means
of compulsion?  My guess would be force would become
“privatised,” meaning whoever could pay the most mercenaries
would end up running things.  Feudalism all over again.  In
practice, it looks to me as though the same folks who own
and run everything would keep on doing so.  But there
would be no government or laws to interfere.  No wonder the
right wing has taken it into their heads to destroy the
government.

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Paul_GA's avatar

By Paul_GA, October 15, 2010 at 3:24 pm Link to this comment

As I see it, Robaire, the Russians like and prefer a strong central government, even if it’s pitiless (Ivan the Terrible and Stalin, for instance); we Americans don’t. Sure, we haven’t had a rebellion since 1861-‘65, but I’d say we’re overdue for one. We’re an extremely heterogeneous, even fractious people, and a lot of us have arms and ammunition (I myself am armed, though I’m not a troublemaker or militia member).

It’s possible, as you say, that the USA may abandon enormous amounts of military arms and equipment in its overseas garrisons once the long trek home begins; what I fear is that the troops themselves may be stuck far from home because the US government (or what’s left of it) won’t have the money to bring them back. The poor slobs overseas will be told something like “Good luck, you’re on your own”, and then they’ll have to decide whether to put down roots where they are or try to return home on their own.

Whatever occurs in the coming years, as you said in your original message, it’s going to be uncommonly messy—certainly messier than the end of the Soviet Union, I’ll aver.

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By berniem, October 15, 2010 at 3:01 pm Link to this comment

As long as the plutocrats and corporatists remain in control via their ownership of the vaunted two party monopoly and at least half of the current population meets the definition of “dupe”, this nation will continue to try to fight it’s way out of the paper bag that it placed itself into!

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By Robaire, October 15, 2010 at 11:46 am Link to this comment

@ Paul_GA

...difference is that this declining empire has nuclear weapons, something the Kaiser’s Germany lacked…

Yes, but so did the former Soviet Union (née Russian Empire) and its demise was relatively non-violent. Certainly no one got nuked.

I don’t think the huge stockpile of weapons, including nuclear, the US maintains is necessarily translated into global violence.

On the contrary, the staggering expense of manufacturing, deploying and maintaining its behemoth war machine is the leading cause of decline.

Five years from now we will see the US walking away from most of its global military commitments and 800+ bases. Planes, helicopters, tanks, Humvees, weapons caches, drones and indoor fast food malls will be abandoned and left behind as the Legions pack up and go home.

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Paul_GA's avatar

By Paul_GA, October 15, 2010 at 11:02 am Link to this comment

If history is any guide, Robaire, there’ll likely be a right-wing movement to re-establish a “better” Empire in place of the crumbling old one, a la the Nazis and Adolf Hitler. The difference is that this declining empire has nuclear weapons, something the Kaiser’s Germany lacked.

Perhaps in the “Tea Party”, we’re seeing such a movement in its birth pangs ...

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By Robaire, October 15, 2010 at 10:02 am Link to this comment

...the great American “Long War” on global terror and violent extremism was not once mentioned. No one seemed to think it worth attention, although the present national outlook for the U.S. was alluded to, usually in pessimistic terms.

Everyone but USians now recognises the end of the US Empire. It’s pretty much a Fait Accompli.

Now it’s a question of how the political, economic and power relationships will re-align themselves in future.

Which is what this forum was essentially concerned with.

It took hundreds of years for the Roman empire to finally disappear; far less for the British and Russian empires; and the crumbling of the US empire may happen much faster than anyone (especially USians) can foresee.

Less than 10 years, certainly.

It’s pretty much an unstoppable event.

I wouldn’t want to be a USian right now; history tells us that the decline of an Empire (sometimes) can be very, very messy.

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Anarcissie's avatar

By Anarcissie, October 14, 2010 at 10:20 am Link to this comment

My present theory is one of ‘building the new world in the shell of the old,’ to quote the IWW.  That is, we need to create new, non-coercive institutions and relations from the ground up which will gradually supplant state (coercive) institutions and relations.

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Paul_GA's avatar

By Paul_GA, October 14, 2010 at 8:14 am Link to this comment

Quite so, Anarcissie; the State is based on coercion, not on voluntary cooperation. The problem, one could say, is how to reduce the level of coercion without having things spiraling out of control (I’m a minarchist myself; the State must exist for some things, but one wonders, as Juvenal put it, “Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?”).

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Anarcissie's avatar

By Anarcissie, October 14, 2010 at 7:39 am Link to this comment

The logic of the state—some should control others—leads naturally to war and empire—some states should control other states.  The problem is exacerbated when the state is associated with tribalism.

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Paul_GA's avatar

By Paul_GA, October 14, 2010 at 7:10 am Link to this comment

@ Anarcissie

Spot on! Virtually all of the world’s problems, as I see it, can be traced to the desire of certain countries to become “Great States” or “Superpowers”, and remain such once they’ve achieved such levels of power, at all costs—to themselves and others.

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By La Montenegrina (just kidding), October 13, 2010 at 7:44 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

And exactly why was the NATO bombing of Montenegro omitted from the list?  My, but what a glaring omission.  It was certainly the most controversial of all, especially among the Italians (from whose soil the NATO planes flew) and the French.

Of course, plenty of Serbian cities with anti-Milosevic municipal governments in place, which at the time took many days of demonstrations by their populations and risk of imprisonment and even death by their leadership to achieve, were also bombed.  But this was somewhat less controversial.  At the time.  Yawn.

Details, details.

(Read the John Le Carre article, especially his last quote, for a more realistic view.)

http://articles.cnn.com/1999-04-28/world/9904_28_kosovo.05_1_nato-bombing-nato-forces-nato-officials?_s=PM:WORLD

Oh, and P.S.:  Shame on you.

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Anarcissie's avatar

By Anarcissie, October 13, 2010 at 3:33 pm Link to this comment

On the road to world peace, we will need dissolution or at least fundamental reconfiguration of the nation-state, to say the least.

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By gerard, October 13, 2010 at 3:15 pm Link to this comment

On the road to world peace, we will need all kinds of mutually advantageous coalitions of nations working together to solve competitive interests before they are allowed to reach crisis proportions. It will be a new way of looking at the future together, involving foresight and mutual tolerance and understanding. 
  Hopefully, it will be more people-centeredd and less profit-centered.  The first signs are beginning to appear, as in this article. We need to think more about what could be, and perhaps a little less about what has been and what is.

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