May 21, 2013
Dispatches From Cairo: The Dream Dissolves
Posted on Jun 15, 2012
CAIRO—And checkmate. Game over?
Thursday afternoon, 98 degrees in the spring shade in Cairo, three days before the final presidential runoff election, and the entire Islamist-led Parliament has just been dissolved by a court ruling.
The decision included the invalidation of the temporary constitution and the committee assigned to write the new one, and it returns all legislative powers to the military.
This “soft coup,” as it is now being called, is based on rulings that the election of one-third of the Parliament’s seats and the Political Disenfranchisement Law, which was proposed to disallow the candidacy of members of the deposed government, were both unconstitutional. The lower and upper houses of the Parliament are now null and void, as is the constitution committee.
The original law passed by the Parliament banning members of former President Hosni Mubarak’s government from candidacy was intended to prevent the powerful elite network of his regime from reinstating his government. This law was appealed and set aside to enable Ahmed Shafiq—a Mubarak loyalist, a former air force general, a former minister of aviation and a onetime interim prime minister—to run. Considered for years a possible alternative to Mubarak’s son as successor in an autocratic, one-party system, Shafiq was promoted as a military strongman who could reimpose order and save the country from Islamist theocracy.
Electing a president without a parliament or constitution will give the winner absolute power, despite the promises of equity made by the now virtually unopposed Shafiq, whose comments after the court ruling seemed like a postelection victory speech.
The other candidate in the runoff is the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi. The ruling might have the effect of invalidating his nomination, which relied on his party’s presence in Parliament.
The reaction of many Egyptians to this week’s events was captured by an engineer whom I know, Hafez. “It’s a coup d’etat,” he said. “They [the military] have taken over everything now. It’s official.” Hafez, a moderate Muslim who considers himself a revolutionary, was hoping for a nonsectarian government. He said that in preliminary voting he cast his ballot for Hamdeen Sabahy, the socialist candidate.
Hafez said he believed there could eventually be a democratic election despite his deep disappointment over the two finalists and his suspicion that there was some vote tampering, not to mention manipulation of easily influenced public sentiment. He planned to boycott the election, as did many others, hoping a low turnout would somehow invalidate it and force the whole process to be redone. He now feels that the Egyptian people were naive in raising their hopes so high. “It’s all over now. It was all for nothing,” he said, gulping with emotion.
Thursday night in the square below my apartment, people were playing loud music, laughing, yelling, arguing and fighting, as usual for the beginning of the weekend. An addition was a megaphone blaring urgent campaign messages for Shafiq, now clearly destined to become president of the Arab Republic of Egypt. There was a strangely ominous tone in the noise, but many people in this mixed-class neighborhood are happy with the prospect of Shafiq being their leader.
The Supreme Constitutional Court, still made up of judges appointed by Mubarak, had dropped its legal bomb earlier in the day, effectively wiping out its opposition, the once-outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, democratically elected as an overwhelming majority in the Parliament and whose candidate, Morsi, had been the front-runner in the presidential election runoff, which remains set for this weekend.
The validity of any candidate can be decided even retrospectively, after the election and without the possibility of appeal, by the Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission, which, as stipulated in Article 28 of the interim constitution, has unfettered authority that is beyond even judicial power. Opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has warned repeatedly that Article 28 must be amended, but Egyptians who originally demonstrated in favor of such an action have been distracted by the rush of issues over the months since its inclusion.
The Supreme Constitutional Court will rule on the results of the election, also with no possibility of appeal.
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