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Reports

A Smorgasbord, Not a Tea Party

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Posted on May 19, 2010

By E.J. Dionne, Jr.

PITTSBURGH—Almost all the shibboleths of Washington conventional wisdom took a hit in Tuesday’s voting. Yet advocates of a single national political narrative clung to the difficulties of two incumbent Democratic senators to keep spinning the same old tale.

It’s true that the idea of incumbents and party establishments being in trouble won some support from the defeat of Sen. Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania primary and Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s failure to avoid a runoff in Arkansas. But the races tell different stories.

Specter, a Republican-turned-Democrat who was defeated by Rep. Joe Sestak, could not survive what is so far the year’s best television advertisement. It linked footage of Specter saying he changed parties so he could get re-elected with video of President George W. Bush enthusiastically endorsing Specter in his previous Senate run.

The ad’s double whammy compactly summarized the gut reactions of Democrats against an incumbent backed by the party’s major figures, from President Obama to Gov. Ed Rendell. Democrats never trusted Specter, their foe for so long, and anti-Bush feeling remains a Democratic rallying cry that the party can still invoke to punch up turnout from core sympathizers this fall.

That Specter’s support collapsed so quickly everywhere outside Philadelphia suggested how weak he would likely have been against conservative Republican nominee Pat Toomey. Party leaders who backed Specter can nonetheless be relieved that voters picked the stronger candidate for November. 

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As for Lincoln, she was already the most vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbent. The late-starting campaign of Lt. Gov. Bill Halter took advantage of this weakness and forced the runoff. He married generalized protest voting with the specific gripes of liberal groups against Lincoln’s inconsistent record on issues such as union rights and health care.

Rand Paul claimed his upending of the Kentucky Republican establishment in the Senate primary as a triumph for the tea party. That it was. But the tea party has yet to prove that it is anything more than an inside-the-party right-wing protest movement. There is no evidence yet of its reach outside the GOP, but there was evidence on Tuesday that there are limits to the anti-government mood that is supposedly sweeping the country.

In Arizona—nobody’s idea of a liberal state—voters supported a temporary increase in the sales tax from 5.6 to 6.6 cents on the dollar, to raise $1 billion annually. This, coupled with a large tax increase on businesses and high-income earners endorsed by voters in Oregon earlier this year, suggests a pragmatic electorate that is far less reflexively opposed to taxes or government than tea party cheerleaders would have us believe.

The most significant result for the fall was the Democrats’ success in holding the western Pennsylvania House seat left vacant by the death of John Murtha. Democrat Mark Critz won an impressive nine-point victory over Republican Tim Burns by distancing himself from Obama and liberal positions on guns and abortion, but also by running a relentlessly economic populist message on jobs and outsourcing. He also promised to deliver federal largesse the way Murtha had.

Democrats will make even more of this result than is justified, given the area’s past Democratic history. But Pennsylvania’s 12th District is precisely the sort of seat Republicans will need to win this fall if they are to take over the House. It is, for example, the only district in the country that switched from Democrat John Kerry in 2004 to John McCain in 2008.

Yet even though Obama’s standing in the region is lower than it is nationwide, Burns’ rote Republican campaign against Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi failed miserably. Democrats, in the meantime, believe they have found a formula to keep some of the more conservative districts they now hold.

Of the 56 seats the Democrats picked up from Republicans in either 2006 or 2008, 23 of them were carried by McCain; in six more, Obama was held to 51 percent or less. These are at the heart of Republican hopes and the reason why it will be hard for Republicans not to gain in the House this fall.

If Democrats can hang on to some of these McCain districts, they will not only keep control of the House but may be able to hold Republican gains to 25 seats or fewer. After the enormous buildup of Republican expectations, such a result would be a disappointment. That is why, paradoxically, Washington’s conventional wisdom of impending Democratic catastrophe is one of the best things Obama’s party has going for it.

E.J. Dionne’s e-mail address is ejdionne(at)washpost.com.
   
© 2010, Washington Post Writers Group


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By REDHORSE, May 22, 2010 at 11:05 am Link to this comment

COST:I like Angela and I remember Huey. I appreciate the factoids and your personality spotlight. I just don’t always understand what they have to do with the topic at hand. Well,”—ole grannies tired now—-”. See ya!!

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By Eugenio Costa, May 21, 2010 at 4:55 pm Link to this comment

Angela Davis has quite rightly called the US a “prison industrial state” and delineated the mechanics in great detail.

In fact the US has more people in prison, both per capita and absolutely, than either the Russian Federation or the People’s Republic of China.

That is an astounding state of affairs in and of itself.

The power of presidential pardon is unlimited.

Obama needs no Congressional support to begin full-scale amelioration of an unjust system.

It could be a purely executive initiative.

And what has he done?

Nothing—nothing at all. And he has no intention of doing so.

Obama does not even have the cojones to invite Angela Davis to the White House or give her the Presidential Medal of Freedom she so richly deserves for a life time of struggle.

Jesse Jackson pegged Obama from the getgo.

When the whole house falls the Democrats will be buried with the Republicans in the same mass grave, and the ersatz “Progressive” Democrats right along with them, whatever color they happen to be.

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By Eugenio Costa, May 21, 2010 at 4:44 pm Link to this comment

To echo Gianfranco Sanguinetti, only Communism can save US Capitalism now.

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By Eugenio Costa, May 21, 2010 at 4:42 pm Link to this comment

A coffee-colored Corporate Fascist Democrat is still a Corporate Fascist Democrat.

Only a racist—of whatever color—would deny it.

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By Eugenio Costa, May 21, 2010 at 4:40 pm Link to this comment

The US is a predatory Capitalist warfare state.

The US is Communism for the rich, Capitalism for the poor.

The US is from each according to need, to each according to greed.

Quod erat demonstrandum.

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By Virginia777, May 21, 2010 at 3:58 pm Link to this comment

Eugenio Costa: “Any suggestions?”

Drop the destructive Obama-bashing and start thinking about how to help the world, not sit on your couch and carp.

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By tedmurphy41, May 21, 2010 at 6:11 am Link to this comment

Coffee anyone?

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By Inherit The Wind, May 20, 2010 at 7:36 am Link to this comment

Why do we keep getting serial posters who post 4,5, 8 times in a row, frequently repeating themselves?  We now seem to have a slew of them.  Frankly, folks, I don’t give $#!t where on the political spectrum your views lie: It’s just obnoxious.

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By REDHORSE, May 20, 2010 at 7:22 am Link to this comment

Grrrrrr—Bow wow wow Costa—Great comments!!

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By Eugenio Costa, May 20, 2010 at 2:56 am Link to this comment

What the US is direly in need of is a totally New Left Alliance-Red and Black and Green—above and underground, versed in economics (Ricardo, Marx, Engels, Veblen, Kropotkin, Bakunin, and Lenin—especially Lenin—and the rest), as well as in Guy Debord and Abbie Hoffman and Marcuse and Zizek and Sanguinetti, Che Guevara and Fidel Castro, Chavez and Ortega and Morales, et alii, as well as R. D.Laing and Deleuze and Guattari—and with vigor and cojones.

And in fact all the better if the revolutionary females have more cojones than the males, which they usually do.

The status quo is untenable and in going afford you cannot afford to lose.

In fact the human species is at stake—that means you.

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By Eugenio Costa, May 20, 2010 at 2:35 am Link to this comment

If Bush was Hubris, is Obama Ate? And is more Nemesis on the way for the US of A?

Is the whole political elite not only incompetent but pathologically so?

Is the population terminally schizophrenic?

Any suggestions?

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By Eugenio Costa, May 20, 2010 at 2:30 am Link to this comment

Any “Progressive Democrat” ready to do a walk through of what all this is supposed to mean?

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By Eugenio Costa, May 20, 2010 at 2:26 am Link to this comment

In addition to this Obama has now sold out:

(a) his minister

(b) Blagoyevich (who campaigned for him)

(c) Kucinich (who supported him, and apparently still does)

(d) ACORN (who supported him and won him many votes)

And while doing this he has retained a large number of Bush appointments (Gates), appointed a Mormon Republican as ambassador to China, appointed a Cuban Right Wing Expert on Failed States as ambassador to Mexico (insulting Mexicans), has kept Bush’s military appointments, and so forth.

Just yesterday his administration alienated Turkey and Brazil.

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By Eugenio Costa, May 20, 2010 at 2:19 am Link to this comment

Does Obama at this rate really expect to get again a lot of the Left support, especially among the young, that he got running in 2008?

At this rate, he will not, whatever the faux “Progressives” think.

So, will Obama then run as a Republican?

Or is the tactic to encourage the Republicans to run a candidate so lunatic that Obama is reelected whatever he does, including becoming for all intents and purposes a clone of the last Bush?

Here are some other considerations:

(1) the US is bankrupt (Bush and Cheney’s work it is true)

(2) USD is no longer the world reserve currency (just a choice)

(3) real estate has not recovered

(4) the real unemployment rate is above 20%

(5) the real economy remains comatose

(6) the vast ecological disaster in the Gulf continues, and will result in vast dislocation in jobs and occupations, etc.

(7) no appreciable unemployment or social welfare relief, nor anhy plan for economic recovery, nor for training and new industry, and the rest has been instituted.

(8) many states and municipalities are on the verge of bankruptcy

(9) retail sales are still in the tank for the most part

(10) the banks are doing nothing but sitting on their bailout money, and in fact have tightened credit.

(11) tax revenues are down

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By Eugenio Costa, May 20, 2010 at 2:05 am Link to this comment

(1) War in Iraq continues

(2) War in Afghanistan escalated

(3) Drone attacks on Pakistan

(4) Continued threats of war—including nuclear war—toward Iran.

(5)Federal Bailout of Banks and Financials continues

(6) A complete sham of a Health Insurance reform, designed by the private Insurers instituted.

(7) Patriot Act, Guantanomo, etc.all continued.

(8) Offshore drilling.

Did one miss something or did Bush and Cheney win a third presidential term?

Okay, so for some it was “color” revolution and the color was coffee—nor does one wish to denigrate the importance of that fact socially and culturally—but how are the present Democrats, and their very quiet “progressive” supporters anything but the same Corporate Fascist Imperialists as the Republicans, with just a slightly differing rhetoric?

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By Maani, May 19, 2010 at 9:31 pm Link to this comment

MUCH ADO ABOUT LITTLE
by Maani Rantel
(posted to MB-Civic 5/19/10)

Everyone please take a deep breath and calm down. Despite all the bloviation, hyperbole and hyperventilating occurring over primary elections in Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Arkansas, very little actually occurred – at least, nothing of the seismic significance that is being suggested.

Re Rand Paul, he is likely to have won in any case – i.e., with or without the Tea Party – based on name recognition and Grayson’s comparative weakness, despite claims that Grayson was a shoo-in. He was never any such thing.  Thus, while the Tea Party claims that it reaped huge rewards here, it just isn’t so.

Re Arlen Specter…please. Given his political performance – in every possible regard – over the past couple of years, it would have been a near-miracle if he had won. He was among the most vulnerable politicians in the entire country – again, with or without the Tea Party. Thus, here again we have a fully predictable situation that likely would have occurred in any case.

Re Blanche Lincoln, this is the only race in which the outcome was always in doubt – and the fact that she pulled out a tie is actually a blow (though a small one) to the Tea Party. It will be interesting to see how the run-off proceeds.

Forgotten (or at least largely unspoken) in all of this is that these are only primaries: Paul, Sestak and (if he wins) Halter will still face the general elections. And alot can happen between now and then.

Ultimately, the Tea Party seems to be getting less of a lift from the actual election process than they are from the mainstream media, who are making mountains out of molehills: it is the media that is doing more to sustain – and even invigorate – the Tea Partiers than is the electoral process.

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By LadyR, May 19, 2010 at 3:00 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Berniem, I couldn’t agree with you more!

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By berniem, May 19, 2010 at 2:46 pm Link to this comment

Although we like to think that we have a two party system, its really an illusion in light of the corporatocracy’s ability to own both at once. Its a joke to hear how we’re going to take back our govt. by throwing the bums out as in replacing dems. with repubs. and vice versa! Actually, if a real third party ever emerged and it managed to stave off the grasp of the plutocrats, we could at that point maybe say that we have a two-party system!

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By Inherit The Wind, May 19, 2010 at 1:42 pm Link to this comment

I think far more is being made of Rand Paul than is justified. Bunning BARELY held on to his seat in 2004 against Dan Mongiardo, and Tom Conway took the nomination handily from Mongiardo.  Without Bunning as the incumbent, Paul’s task to beat Conway is far harder than it looks, especially if Mongiardo gets behind him.  I expect Mitch McConnell to be a reluctant support of Paul (Shades of John Warner refusing to endorse Oliver North against Chuck Robb, a weak candidate)

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By Anarcissie, May 19, 2010 at 12:54 pm Link to this comment

I think the Republicans may lose seats in the fall.  The Tea Party is mostly a revolt against the Republican establishment in the name of a number of disjoint marginal tendencies like social conservatism, religious fanaticism, and libertarianism.  To the extent that the revolt succeeds, it will operate against the Republicans’ ability to blur differences between the parties in order to attract independents and Democrats and thus win elections.

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By mrfreeze, May 19, 2010 at 12:41 pm Link to this comment

I credit the election of President Obama for the re-invigoration of political awareness and participation today. Agree or disagree with the various candidates…that’s not the point. The point is, the American public has grown tired of the same old narratives and political paradigms we’ve endured (BECAUSE OF THE MEDIA) for over 30 years now.

Of course, corporate-owned Media are vested in colluding with all the players because their only goal is profit. Even NPR won’t ask tough questions any longer for fear that it might lose “access” to the same tired-out suits who dominate our public discourse.

Let’s hope that by the end of the mid-term elections Congress will look very different than it does today.

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By REDHORSE, May 19, 2010 at 12:12 pm Link to this comment

Good insight—good reporting—and no kneejerk—great!!

    It is just so hard to know what the truth is or the difference between spin (distorted lie) and truth anymore. Thanks for attempting clarity!!

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