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It’s Morning in China

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Posted on Dec 13, 2010
Flickr / The Pocket (CC-BY)

By Richard Reeves

PALO ALTO, Calif.—In 1982, Richard Nixon told me he thought that by the middle of this century the world would be dominated by Asians, primarily Chinese. He reminisced about a conversation with China’s leader, Mao Zedong, in which Mao said 300 million Chinese would be willing to die for that goal—and 300 million Americans would not.

Nixon was a gifted global analyst and a racist. During a two-hour conversation, he said a confrontation was coming—probably economic rather than military—and that "yellow" (his word) Asians were simply genetically superior to Caucasians. The job of a Western leader, he continued, was to hold off that confrontation for as long as possible.

Almost 30 years later, a new book, a fascinating book, "Why the West Rules—For Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future" by Ian Morris, a professor at Stanford University, tends to push that deadline back about 50 years to 2103.

Morris creates a Social Development Scale that produces a graph showing that the West has effectively ruled the world since it turned to science in the 15th or 16th century and solidified that rule with the discovery and development of fossil fuels in the mid-17th century. After that, basically until now, Europeans and Americans were free to roam the world in coal- and steam-powered ships capable of blasting away the essentially medieval defenses of places like Shanghai and Tokyo.

But now, if current trends continue (they could speed up), the "East" line will cross and pass the "West" in 2103.

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There was, as Morris emphasizes, nothing preordained about Western dominance. After all, he argues, the East, Orientals and Arabs, dominated the world from about the mid-sixth century to the 12th and beyond. What if the Chinese had discovered coal or the Arabs had found their oil first? But that did not happen.

So? Morris quotes a Malaysian lawyer: "I am wearing your clothes. I speak your language. I watch your films. And today is whatever date it is because you say so."

I cannot explain everything about Morris’ Social Development Scale any more than I can football’s BCS system, but the overall theory is that the curve represents a group’s ability to master its physical and intellectual environment. Here is what they need, according to Morris:

"Energy capture"—the ability to turn coal into steam powering ships and trains;

"Urbanism"—the ability to organize complex environments;

"Information processing"—figuring things out;

"Capacity to make war"—basically the ability to get what you want from people who don’t want to give it to you.

That last is obvious, I suppose. But Morris does point out that whereas we, the West, dominated with gunpowder and the internal combustion engine, future conquerors might use robotic or cyber weaponry.

This is a long and complex book, but it ends with something any Westerner should understand. The author makes the point that we misquote or underquote Rudyard Kipling. Here is what he wrote:

"East is East and West is West and never the twain shall meet, ...

"But there is neither East nor West, Border, nor Breed, nor Birth,

"When two strong men stand face to face, tho’ they come from the ends of the earth."

© 2010 UNIVERSAL UCLICK


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tihsstaezevahc's avatar

By tihsstaezevahc, January 7, 2011 at 1:55 am Link to this comment

Paul,

Of course to blame the decline of the US totally on Reagonomics is disingenuous. I don’t pretend to do that. Reaganomics has been a factor though. Of course Reagan simply seized the mood that had been building since the failure in Vietnam. Marcus Aurelius was right on the money. Then again how do we define decline? And a decline for whom? Certainly there are those of us who may not feel a decline at all. It is subjective to the perspective that each individual has. A construction worker who has lost everything he has worked for in a lifetime, including his home, is not going to see things quite as the same as corporate CEO getting a 6 or 7 figure bonus, eve a 5 figure bonus.

Even basic capitalist theory as per Adam Smith is that labor is the creator of wealth. Once that labor class starts to disintegrate and the wealthy elite class is oblivious of the disintegration then that is what would be defined as a collective decline as far as I’m concerned. This is what I see the beginnings of. Recently I watched the movie Marie Antoinatte, of course it was only a movie which is where I prefer to get my dose of fiction. Personally I only read non-fiction. Anyway the message was how the French Royals led the lavish and decadent lifestyle on the backs of the poor and how the country crumbled around them. They seemed to be totally isolated and oblivious of the suffering of the masses until it was too late. So Marcus Aurelius quote fits perfectly.

I’m not a Marxist but when you read the Communist Manifesto the analysis that Marx does is totally on the money. It’s as if he wrote that yesterday. Unfortunately he doesn’t deliver practical solutions since his solutions create another elite bourgeois class whose power is not based on raw capital the way our society is.

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Blackspeare's avatar

By Blackspeare, December 15, 2010 at 1:08 pm Link to this comment

China being a totalitarian/authoritarian homogeneous society already has an advantage.  With little internal strife, timely political/economic decisions, the term “Yellow Menace” takes on a new whole new meaning.

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By hadhriti, December 15, 2010 at 10:32 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Morris’ thesis is based on his assumption, stated in the
fifth last paragraph of this review, that “...the Social
Development Scale…represents a GROUP’S ability to master ITS physical ... environment.”  Morris innocuous GROUPS
were EMPIRES.  Empire was established by force to
euphemistically “master”, less euphemistically, “exploit”
someone else’s (not ITS) environment.  Empires, not
Groups, fed the fruits of the energy expended in other people’s environments into the construction of an industrial infrastructure located in Northwest Atlantic “nation-states.”  Without imported food England, for example, could not have fed the English working class.  Without imported cotton, which represented embodied energy extracted from other people’s environments, England’s industrial infrastructure would have ceased to produce textiles.

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Paul_GA's avatar

By Paul_GA, December 15, 2010 at 9:04 am Link to this comment

No, I wouldn’t blame the decline of America on Reaganomics, tihsstaezevahc; I consider it to be the inevitable onward march of history. The world is changing, but those fools and dimwits in Mordor-on-the-Potomac are married to the Status Quo, and imagine this period to be just a “blip” on the radar-screen of history. No doubt many of them are eagerly expecting the emergence of a “New Reagan” in 2012 ...

As the Roman emperor/Stoic philosopher Marcus Aurelius wrote in the late 2nd Century AD, “Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future, too.”

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By gerard, December 14, 2010 at 11:57 pm Link to this comment

IMO, unless we all cooperate to create “morning throughout the world, it’s very likely to be quite dark eveywhere.

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tihsstaezevahc's avatar

By tihsstaezevahc, December 14, 2010 at 10:05 pm Link to this comment

Wasn’t the quote: “It’s morning in America?”

How did it become “It’s morning in China?”

Oh! I just remembered, 30 years of Reaganomics.

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Paul_GA's avatar

By Paul_GA, December 14, 2010 at 1:22 pm Link to this comment

Morris—and Reeves—left out the second line of that quadrain, which, if I recall it correctly, reads:

“Till Earth and Sky stand presently at God’s great Judgement Seat.”

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By SarcastiCanuck, December 14, 2010 at 9:40 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

What a bunch of baloney Mr.Reeves.300 million Chinese are going to die fighting us for domination?Domination of what,Walmart,McDonalds..DisneyLand…give me a break.The growing problems of the world will become insurmountable in the future and the only war that I see coming is our own oligarchies declaring war on thier own people.
  Also,quoting Nixon’s goofy theories holds no water as well.Was Einstein Chinese,how about Socrates,Ghandi,Von Braun,Banting&Best;,Michaelangelo,Newton,Columbus…Get a grip,what are you,a Replublican Chicken Little.The sky is falling,the sky is falling.
  Look on the bright side,we get to eat Chinese food every day if the ‘yellow asians’ conquer us.

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G.Anderson's avatar

By G.Anderson, December 13, 2010 at 11:53 pm Link to this comment

The world now is straining to support, the delusions of madmen. Hidden, behind a veil of self deception, the fragile props that prevent mankinds extinction, and decent into Ragnarok are disintegrating.

Nixon, was brilliant, yes..But, because he was brilliant, he had a far greater capacity for madness than most men. And he infected so many others, who have no way to see again.

Out on the fringes of society, exists the protests, and the urgent calls, of those who have discovered the poison at the center of our consciousness, that is devouring us, slowly at first.

They are ignored, by those who prefer that we die in our sleep.

Humanity cannot survive, because mankind has lost it’s sanity. We’ve taken a wrong turn, somewhere, and won’t be able to find our way back before it’s too late.

The hope of Another war, another confrontation, is just one more proof that we are a doomed species.

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By Big B, December 13, 2010 at 10:58 pm Link to this comment

You are probably right lamsog, but I think your time frame may be a bit off, I think radical changes in the worlds climate and energy supply will happen in 20-30 years, not 90.

And then all us hippies will be right (again) that all of our problems center around over population. Oh well, after the great tribulation, there will be far fewer of us to worry about. Just think, many of our most infamous assholes should be raptured by then anyway.

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By lasmog, December 13, 2010 at 8:05 pm Link to this comment

Of course, peak oil and climate change may have something to say about the coming Asian century.  Furthermore, by 2100 China may find its massive population quite the albatross around its neck.

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