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65 Years After Hiroshima: Truman’s Choices

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Posted on Aug 6, 2010
AP / U.S. Air Force

Two people walk a cleared path through Hiroshima in September 1945, weeks after the dropping of the first atomic bomb on Aug. 6.

By Stanley Kutler

“Stuff happens,” Donald Rumsfeld infamously said to explain why some of his plans in Iraq went awry. But it does not just happen by chance—rather, stuff happens because of conscious, deliberately executed decisions. And sometimes it happens when a decision is made by doing nothing.

The personalities, the interests and the considerations that propelled the United States’ decision to use the atomic bomb in August 1945 are parts of an interlocking puzzle. The historical reconstruction of events reveals a seemingly inexorable decision to use the weapon. We had made a bomb and successfully tested it in July, and the scientists, generals, politicians and civilians caught up in events readily supplied the accelerating momentum to a decision: “We must use it.” That inexorable force in fact found no resistance among civilian decision-makers anxious to justify the expenditures of unprecedented sums of money to develop a weapon designed to end the war.

The historical narrative of the decision to use the bomb largely derives from the recollections and rationales of President Harry Truman and his civilian and military advisers. For them, the stark choice came down to drop the bomb or sustain a “million” American casualties (with apparently no effort to consider and realize the potential for Japanese civilian casualties) if the planned invasion had been launched. A small number of scientists raised ethical and moral considerations, but their influence was of no immediate consequence. 

President Truman fashioned himself as a decisive man who easily and readily made the decision. “It isn’t polls or public opinion of the moment that counts,” he said in 1954. “It is right and wrong and leadership—men with fortitude, honesty, and a belief in the right that makes epochs in the history of the world.” So Truman described himself and conducted himself as president, and it is how he has generally been perceived.

Later, at his presidential library in Independence, Mo., the president conducted mock press conferences with tour groups, largely composed of schoolchildren, as long as his heath permitted. Invariably, visitors would ask, “Mr. President, what was your hardest decision?” With no hesitation, he barked back, “Korea.” “But Mr. President, what about the atomic bomb?” “Atomic bomb? I used it like I would have used any artillery piece.” Truman’s defensiveness was palpable.

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Were his options so simple, so limited, so stark, and as obvious as he said? Truman learned of the bomb when aides informed him of the successful atomic explosion at Alamogordo, N.M., on July 18. The president and Secretary of War Henry Stimson, who oversaw the wartime Manhattan Project, soon agreed that the bomb would be used against Japan.

Nevertheless, Truman recorded his doubts, his hesitation and his alternatives, at least before Alamogordo. One day earlier, he wrote in his diary: “I have to decide Japanese strategy—shall we invade Japan proper or shall we bomb and blockade? That is my hardest decision to date. But I’ll make it when I have all the facts.” The successful test raised a wholly new fact.

We now realize how effectively the aerial bombardment and naval blockade had thwarted the Japanese military capacity. But did—or could—Truman have all the statistical evidence compiled since the end of the war? The claims of triumphant American air and naval commanders offered some clear signs. So, what happened to the option Truman had in mind until Alamogordo? Did the successful test of that day erase the more complicated options he had laid out the day before? Apparently.

Gen. Curtis LeMay was well into his career of bombing civilians back to the Stone Age. The Air Force was not yet independent, but as the war neared its end, concepts of strategic bombing accelerated, resulting in the creation of the U.S. Strategic Air Force in the Pacific, with LeMay in command. B-29 firebombing raids, pushed by LeMay, decimated industrial production, with more than 60 cities largely destroyed. The infamous Tokyo fire raids in March killed more than 100,000 Japanese. Additionally, “Operation Starvation” laid down explosive mines in the inland waterways and coastal routes, effectively disrupting Japanese internal shipping.

Japan lost nearly all of the 117,000 troops defending Okinawa in June; after that, kamikaze attacks on American naval vessels abated. American submarines effectively halted all shipping of men and supplies from the remaining Japanese garrisons in Manchuria and Formosa. We had “collateral damage,” as thousands of American POWs were killed in the attacks on Japanese shipping. After the Battle of the Philippine Sea in 1944, the once-formidable Japanese fleet was no more, except for some vessels tethered in home ports. War planners realized the diminished Japanese military and industrial capacity they faced; yet, they persisted in a belief that Japanese civilians would fanatically resist and die for their emperor (“120 million hearts beating as one”), while we would suffer estimated casualties of 1 million. (John Ray Skates in his book “Invasion of Japan” details the invasion plans while recognizing the complete devastation of Japan.)

The aerial assault and the naval blockade kept the Pacific commanders busy, of course. But civilian and military planners simultaneously made final tweaks on the elaborate plans for “Operation Downfall,” the planned invasion of Japan. Those plans, of course, were put on hold, and ultimately shelved altogether.

Discussions of the dropping of the bomb rarely raise the effects and potential of the bombing and naval blockade. Were they sufficient? Would they have brought Japan to surrender? When? Did those advocating such alternatives have any voice in the bureaucratic policy considerations? Unfortunately, this is a typical kind of decision-making process that history usually ignores or obscures.

Determining the evaporation of the choice for maintaining the blockade and conventional bombing to break the Japanese will is an elusive problem. Today, it is common wisdom that Truman had only two simple, stark choices: to use the bomb or invade and suffer a “million” casualties. The options of naval blockade and “conventional” bombing quickly dissolved, and over time they have disappeared. Drift and inertia account in part for some of the flow of events as the decision to use the bomb took on a force of its own, with the tragic results of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Stanley Kutler is the author of the “Wars of Watergate” and other writings.


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By JeffKamen, August 6, 2010 at 6:08 am Link to this comment

Kutler is such a good writer, and TruthDig is so valuable a source that both
might consider a bit more restraint before indulging in the annual ritual of
slicing-and-dicing Harry Truman’s decision to nuke one of America’s WWII
enemies into speedy submission and the end of US casualties.  I bring to this
discussion a very common connection to the time of Truman’s superb decision:
My two uncles, Sidney and George were in uniform at the time and would, in all
likelihood, have been part of any invasion—as would thousands of other
American uncles, dads, brothers and sons. Please remember that we as a
nation, were at war with Imperial Japan, an aggressive force that used mass
rape and murder to enforce its will on conquered nations.  They were not the
wonderful, kind, Japanese of today. They were, in fact, ferocious, genocidal,
“Japs.”  If you have forgotten the Rape of Nanking or the various Death Marches
that were emblematic of Imperial Japan’s interaction with the rest of the Pacific
rim until America and its allies stopped them, you might put those phrases into
Google or read an actual book about WWII in the Pacific.  Also, when we are at
war, our first obligation is to win and bring home, alive and well, as many of
OUR soldiers as possible.  The nuking of two ENEMY cities did just that.  Not one
additional Allied life was lost in combat after the two mushroom clouds rose
over Hiroshima and Nagasaki,  And then there is this: One of the single greatest
accomplishments of the modern world was the almost instantaneous (in
historical terms) retooling of Japan from a rampaging, warring,  feudal state
that kept its own women as virtual slaves, into a truly peaceful, modern
democracy with huge opportunities for women. It is almost unimaginable that
this enormous transformation would have been possible had Japan not been so
powerfully shocked into unconditional surrender. For Truman critics who simply
neither understand nor care about the obligation to safeguard our own forces
first, the liberation of Japan from feudalism ought to be enough.  But it won’t
be.  The flagellation of Truman, the arrogant depiction of him as a boob, will
continue into the sunset of time itself.  Such is the nature of ideological
criticism carried out by people who have lost (or never had) any visceral
connection to the realities of the time about which they write.

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By kalpal, August 6, 2010 at 5:41 am Link to this comment

The Japanese had made some efforts to end the war but were rebuffed by the unconditional surrender demanded by the USA. They wanted assurances the emperor would not be removed and prosecuted which the USA refused to agree to.

Since the USA saw a need to imprison the Japanese population of the USA but made no such effort in the cases of Germans and Italians we can clearly see the prejudice and bigotry advancing the use of the bomb on Japan. There was also a need to show “Uncle Joe” what we might be able to do. Of course Uncle Joe knew we had no more bombs to use on him after the second bomb was dropped in Japan. That is why he finally declared war on Japan after he was sure it would be surrendering in the coming weeks.

Thus we demonstrate the inherent benevolence built into politics when human life is deemed an easily replaceable commodity.

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By "G"utless "W"itless Hitler, August 6, 2010 at 5:38 am Link to this comment

I fail to see how continuation of the conventional bombing campaign (see Tokyo casualties) and a naval blockade meant to starve the country would have resulted in fewer civilian deaths than dropping two A-bombs or brought about a speedy end to the conflict.  The civilian population would have endured this just as they had the bombings and privations leading up to that point.  It’s not like they were clamoring to depose the emperor or give Tojo the boot.  Besides, what’s so magical about one million U.S. casualties.  Had the dropping of the bomb saved the lives of 10,000 American servicemen, it would have been worth it.

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By Froggy, August 6, 2010 at 5:13 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

I don’t recall the source of this, but many years ago I heard that having suffered such devastation and death from bombing raids, the Japanese were ready to surrender, but Truman ignored that.

The insanity of the mass murder, destruction and cost of war still persists today. Huge numbers of nuclear bombs far more powerful than those used against Japan, sit in arsenals with some on hair-trigger alert. A human error, computer malfunction or theft by a terrorist, could begin the end of all life on earth, yet our Senators drag their feet on approving the tiniest step toward arsenal reduction, the START treaty with Eussia!

85 years have passed with dozens of close calls on accidental deployment, but political leaders who make decisons that imperil all of us, continue to make the wrong decisions!  By now, the total abolition of these monstrous tools of death and destruction should have been accomplished. A large part of the responsibity to make sane decisions rests on our own shoulders, citizens who have allowed their leaders to continue on this treacherous, dangerous, insane path. Before it’s too late,will enough of us wake up, organize, and make it clear with a huge,loud voice and physical presence in DC, that we no longer accept the insanity? We cannot delay or count on the politicians to have the common sense necessary to remove this dark cloud from over the entire world.

Froggy

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BalPatil's avatar

By BalPatil, August 6, 2010 at 5:01 am Link to this comment

I am afraid this is an evasive comment. Please see my Blog: http://balpatil.sulekha.com/blog/post/2009/08/pax-americana-was-hiroshima-necessary.htm
  There was absolutely no military necessity to use the atomic bomb against Japan in August 1945. Japan was, by the Summer of that year, a defeated nation. The only real question was to work out the terms of surrender. But there was a powerful faction which wanted to use the bomb, not to compel the surrender of Japan, but to “shock and awe” the world into submission to an Anglo-American-dominated, one-world government. The untimely death of Franklin Roosevelt on April 12, 1945 gave this grouping the opportunity to succeed with their evil schemes, which they never could have done had Roosevelt been alive.

  The shallow, ill-informed Harry Truman became a dupe of this faction, which operated primarily through his Secretary of State Jimmy Byrnes, and Secretary of War Henry Stimson. It was these two men who briefed Truman on the bomb project immediately after FDR’s death.

  One of the steps that Stimson and Byrnes subsequently took, was to induce Truman to postpone the Potsdam summit with Stalin until the bomb’s design had been completed and tested. And at Potsdam, the clause offering the Japanese the possibility of establishing “a constitutional monarchy under the present dynasty,” was removed from the final Declaration.
  The myth which grew up later—that the use of the atomic bomb saved a million American lives—has no basis whatsoever in reality. The effects of the naval blockade were such that Japan’s raw-materials dependent island economy was virtually shut down, and its military situation was hopeless. Surrender was only a matter of time—within months, November or December at the latest—so long as reasonable terms were offered.
  The following statement of Stimson, the then Secretary of State to the then President Truman published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Feb.3, 1947:
“The future may see a time when such weapon may be constructed secret and used suddenly and effectively with devastating power by a wilful nationor group against an unsuspecting nation or or group of much greater size and material power. With its aid even a very powerful and unsuspecting nation might be conquered within a very few days by a very smaller one…”
  Quoting this the most distinguished experimental physicist and Nobel prize winner in 1948 P.M.S. Blackett says in his book The Military and Political Consequences of Atomic Energy (1948):  “The obvious result has been to stimulate a hysterical search for 100 per cent security from such attack. since there can be no such complete seccurityfrom such attack. Since there can be no such complete security for America except through world hegemony by America in one form of another…” p.128

Officials and analysts in the United States have been warning that Al-Quaida or associated groups are planning such nuclear attacks on American soil.

  Dubbed as American Hiroshima the plan apparently targets New York, Miami, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Chicago, San Franscisco, Las Vegas, Boston and Washigton D.C..

  Former US Defence Secretary William Perry says there is an even chance of a nuclear attack on the US this decade. Renowned investor Warren Buffet has predicted A nuclear terrorist attack isinevitable.”

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By camnai, August 6, 2010 at 4:58 am Link to this comment

‘The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb’, by Gar Alperovitz, is an interesting walk
through some of the documentation, and suggests that Truman ordered it
dropped against the advice of most of his military and civilian advisors. It
suggests that the Japanese were on the verge of surrender anyway, and so was
not necessary. It also suggests that the famous ‘million casualties’ figure for an
invasion of the home islands was pulled out of the air long after the war had
ended.

I have my doubts about how long it would have taken the Japanese to
surrender unconditionally without it, though. Whether they would have lasted
until November 1945, when the U.S. invasion was planned, is impossible to
say, but it was not until after the atom bombing, and the entry of the USSR into
the war, that the emperor finally called a halt. The population was almost
certainly ready to give in, but the Army fanatics on the Supreme War Council,
safe in their bunkers, were not, and there was little the Japanese public would
have been able to do. The USSR, for better or for worse, could have ended up
occupying the entire Korean Peninsula, as well as much of northern Japan.

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By tedmurphy41, August 6, 2010 at 4:58 am Link to this comment

It’s not so much the dropping of such an untried weapon
on Japan, it’s the selection of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
as legitimate targets that I query.
I also wonder, if this weapon had been developed in
time, whether Berlin would have been targeted,
although, using the same logic used with Japan, I would
think that Cologne and Dresden would have sufficed to
catch the attention of the powers in charge, as
happened in the case of Japan.

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By ofersince72, August 6, 2010 at 4:54 am Link to this comment

Hello Friends

  Read , MEETING AT POTTSDAM,  and you will find out
just why the bomb was dropped. It was never about
saving a million lives, but negotiating with Russia
about the Japanese Surrender,  the Russians wanted to be
in on this.  The Americans did not want Russia any where
near in these negotiations.

  Anyway,  I have been reading Chomsky for close to
thirty years so don’t need to read this but hope you all
have a meaningful discussion, especially on stopping the
next war !!!!!!!!!!!!

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By old goat, August 6, 2010 at 4:30 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Public opinion disregarded. Polls are the vehicle for shaping an equation, not for voice.

The ‘economy’ of choices to develop and use anything reflects the old saw - to one whose only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

‘Externalized’ costs (consequences in all dimensions)) is an aspect of the final frontier we embark on from a port of call that is apparently shattered by an ‘economy’ of expansionism.

Our tool box has not included the ‘excluded’ peoples of the world - the greatest treasure calling us.

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By bogi666, August 6, 2010 at 4:24 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

I’ve seen the films of supposed Japanese women jumping off of cliffs and they are legitimate except they use the same film over and over but the locations are different.  The USG official propaganda about suicides on Okinawa was 150,00 for 50 years and it was USG propaganda. Their were 150,000 Okinawan civilian deaths but they were trapped in a crossfire between the American and Japanese armies, no attributed to suicide. The suicide line was subtlety dropped from the official USG propaganda in the 90’s and the truth was used. I lived on Okinawa and knew some who survived their Holocaust.

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By Frank of America, August 6, 2010 at 3:28 am Link to this comment

I cannot help but observe, but not justify, that it rings true the decision to use the bomb was partly to justify the money spent developing it. But think of the money saved in using it. I have no doubt that the tenacity of the the Japanese army fighting the Americans all the way across the Pacific was a huge factor in invasion planning. Regardless of the devastation the blockade and conventional bombing wreaked on the mainland; economics must have played a part.

It must have entered the minds of the planners that using one or possibly two or even a dozen of these horrific weapons was orders of magnitude less expensive in blood and treasure (on both sides) than a full scale invasion or even continuing the blockade and conventional bombing.

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By ardee, August 6, 2010 at 3:22 am Link to this comment

As the targets chosen, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, were selected for their geographic features, both being in shallow bowls to maximize the effects of the bombs and as neither target had any military value whatsoever it seems rather clear why the decision was made. We wanted to show Russia how powerful we were, nothing more than that.

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By acbar, August 6, 2010 at 3:06 am Link to this comment

Another mystifyingly shallow discussion of Truman’s alternatives, one that does no justice to its title.  Common sense long ago made me ask why they didn’t drop the bomb offshore, or say on Niijima island outside Tokyo Bay?  If that didn’t bring results, it could be argued the Japanese government would have
had to take responsibility for the consequences.  In fact, I read that such a demonstration of the weapon was suggested by several major figures. 

Truman’s reference to an artillery piece is revealing.  He was a decorated officer in WWI and probably used such cannons.  That was soldier-to-soldier.  But the Allies had already descended the slippery slope of civilian slaughter in Tokyo and Dresden and Hamburg. I have come to suspect that we cannot fully grasp
the racial hatred Americans bore the Japanese at this historical moment, or the built-up anger and sense of righetousness traceable back to Pearl Harbor.  Or simply the default murderousness that throbs within people in wartime. 

Why did Bush rush off to ravage Iraq?  It’s a similar dynamic perhaps.  The heat of anger, the male’s rage at an attack on his homeland.  The issue of a million U.S. deaths is a red herring.

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By hidflect, August 6, 2010 at 2:54 am Link to this comment

When the Americans invaded a few small islands the Japanese women were jumping off the cliffs with their babies. This may have had something to do with the decision to drop the bomb. The Japanese make a big play about Hiroshima but 700m from my house is the apex point of where 10x the number died (Sumida River) and there’s not one single plaque or even flimsy notice. The bomb allowed the Japanese an “out” from mass destruction. Many Japanese I know acknowledge that fact gratefully.

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By bogi666, August 6, 2010 at 2:44 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

An analysis made by another td commenter had a better take about the reason for nuking Japan suggesting that it was really the start of the cold war, meant to send a message to Stalin which had entered the war against Japan, as agreed, just days earlier. The nukes sent the message, back off USSR.This has some merit.

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