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Obama’s Aces in the HolePosted on Jul 20, 2009By E.J. Dionne It was not the soaring rhetoric that is Barack Obama’s signature, but he recently offered the sound bite that may define his presidency: “Don’t bet against us.” There are reasons to believe that his confident words—they were about health care reform, but have broader application—were not the bombast of a bluffer exaggerating the strength of his hand. They reflect the high cards that Obama holds and has only now started to play. Of course, no one ever thought passing a health care bill would be easy, and the effort hit some bumps last week over costs and how to cover them. But Obama doesn’t quite see things the way his more nervous Democratic allies do because he missed the years in Washington during which his party was beaten down. Many Democrats had their perceptions of political reality shaped by the failure of Bill Clinton’s health proposal, the 1994 Republican revolution, and the GOP’s triumphalism during President Bush’s first term. That world, however, turned upside down in 2005—the year Obama arrived in Washington. Bush’s power dissolved in the failure of his Social Security privatization proposal, the Hurricane Katrina backlash, and rising disillusionment with the Iraq war. By the end of 2006, less than two years after Obama’s arrival, Democrats had seized control of both houses of Congress. Advertisement And it’s real power. Nothing made that clearer than the trajectory of Judge Sonia Sotomayor’s Supreme Court nomination battle—or non-battle. It has often been said that Republicans have not put up much of a fight against her, but the reason for their pacifism is rarely mentioned: Republicans were severely constrained simply because they lack numerical clout. Had the Senate been more closely divided, the GOP might have mounted a more aggressive campaign that, if nothing else, could have raised the cost for moderate Democrats of supporting Sotomayor. But knowing they’d never get the votes to stop her, Republicans decided to wait for a more opportune moment to pick a real fight. The numbers work Obama’s way on other issues. Much was made of the 44 House Democrats who defected from the president’s position by opposing the cap-and-trade bill last month. The more important fact is that Democrats have such a big majority that they could lose all those votes and still prevail, even if narrowly. The same numbers give Speaker Nancy Pelosi significant room to maneuver in selling the House health care bill. And with 60 votes in the Senate, Democrats can, in principle, work their will on health care without any Republican support. Obama is bound to make compromises, partly to bring moderate Democrats along. But the size of the Democrats’ Senate majority means they won’t be able to blame the Republicans if health reform dies. This increases the pressure on moderate Democrats to get something done. There is thus an irony to the game Obama must play. He will continue to speak in bipartisan terms to keep open the possibility of picking off Republicans if they’re needed—Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, already seems inclined to work with him—and because such an approach appeals to moderate Democrats whose sensibilities he must soothe. The open-to-the-other-side style also helps him hold support from political independents around the country. He needs them to preserve his good approval ratings, which are themselves a form of political capital. But Obama must simultaneously persuade Democrats that they are not living in the Republican congressional eras of 1995 or 2003—that if it’s necessary, they have the strength on their own to win. This was the implicit message Obama conveyed to Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., to push him to conclude his frustratingly protracted health care negotiations with Republicans in the Senate Finance Committee. Getting Baucus to move this week is essential to maintaining momentum. If Obama seems likely to win, interest groups will be more forthcoming, his own party will be more likely to hold together, and more Republicans will be inclined to cut a deal. And that, finally, is why Obama wants to make sure his party bets with him, not against him. His core message to fellow Democrats is that the only things they have to fear are the fears and insecurities bred into them when they were a battered minority. Obama is free of those doubts because he never knew them. E.J. Dionne’s e-mail address is ejdionne(at)washpost.com. © 2009, Washington Post Writers Group Elsewhere: . CommentsAre you a Truthdig member yet? Login now, or register with Truthdig. Add Your Comment
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By RobertinWestbury, July 22 at 7:38 pm #
“He’s a disillusioned, weak-willed, not-so-bright, closet conservative who is sexually immature and homo-threatened, and has no respect for the civil rights, gay and equal rights movements. He just likes to “mouth it” for a good crowd response. He is a weak, moral coward.”
Jesus what a hateful diatribe. The man has only been in office for 6 months and you have declared him a moral coward? Sexually immature? LOL… in what way? Please defend the statement. It is utterly absurd.
As a gay man I am not happy that he hasn’t moved on Gay rights yet, but I truly believe he will.
I do not believe a single statement you made about his character or nature. I think you are someone who expects all of the problems we fact to be magically fixed by one individual, and if he alone can’t do it in a few months then you attack beyond reason…
You have the right to your opinion, of course. But unless you can provide some basis of referring to him as sexually immature, or worse - a ‘conservative,’ I can’t take you seriously…
Report thisBy tropicgirl, July 22 at 6:44 pm #
Well, I’m bettin’ against him.
“...Obama must simultaneously persuade Democrats that they are not living in the Republican congressional eras of 1995 or 2003…”
How can he do this when he is living in that past himself? He is not a progressive, he’s just a liar.
And the public option is nothing more than another insurance company. This is EXACTLY how Blue Cross got started during the last health care crisis. And they have become the WORST of the WORST.
A public option is just a ploy to get uninformed progressives to believe in him. It has nothing to do with single payer and everything to do with a cheap HMO. Thats all it is. I guess he got you with that word “public”, didn’t he?
Well, I expect Chump Change to do to health care what he did with torture accountability, spying on Americans, drone bombing innocent civilians, mortgage assistance, outsourced and offshored jobs, signing statements, every Bush policy that he has upheld, patient dumping, Medicare-raiding, secrecy, stealing taxpayer money for bailouts for corporations, Wall street and the TARP.
His record is horrendous and he has people believing he is actually succeeding.
He IS the EPITOME of the discouraged 80’s when Reagan and the crazy evangelicals convinced young Democrats to totally give up on a progressive agenda because it would be too politically dangerous. After all, back then some progressives met with unseemly ends. But it didn’t take long for the Clintons and the Obama-types to dance with the warmongers and the international bankers because it was “wiser” and “more politically expedient”. He’s a disillusioned, weak-willed, not-so-bright, closet conservative who is sexually immature and homo-threatened, and has no respect for the civil rights, gay and equal rights movements. He just likes to “mouth it” for a good crowd response. He is a weak, moral coward.
I’m bettin’ and praying to God in heaven against him. For the sake of the suffering.
Report thisBy RobertinWestbury, July 22 at 5:58 pm #
“As a candidate he promised us a universal single payer system of health care. Now he flatly refuses to consider it!”
Nonsense!
The man never once promised a single payer system, no matter how much I wish he did. But he knows it’s not viable to a public that has been brainwashed into believing single payer = Socialism.
So he promoted a new idea. Basically he outsmarted the opposition.
He is introducing a public plan to compete with the private ones knowing full well it will be cheaper and better run than private insurance, and because it will be cheaper and less costly, individuals and companies will flock to it.
The Republicans are crying that it will destroy the private health insurance system. I think private health insurance will remain for the wealthy, and that is just fine with me. But that system will be seriously diminished, and it will cease to be the backbone of the healthcare industry.
And to that I can only say, ‘Thank God.’
I don’t understand all those ‘progressives’ who are opposing Obama because he isn’t giving us ‘what we voted for.’ He sure is. He ran on this concept of providing a public plan to compete with the private insurers. We voted for him, so we voted for his plan.
I believe it will work..
Report thisBy bogi666, July 22 at 9:51 am #
Pres. Obushama just secured an important vote in the Senate by scuttling the F22. Don’t underestimate its significance as the F22 carries 2 Senate seats as well as some Georgia Republican congressmen. It could be as the writer says about Obushama’s political viewpoint on power. He’s a Kenyan American and was not raised to be a victim because his family has no slavery heritage, which is the case with some, not all, african Americans.So far though I have to refer to him as Obushama and will do so until he proves otherwise. I vote for him, he doesn’t vote for me so I’m and other voters are what’s important.
Report thisBy FreeWill, July 21 at 12:28 pm #
Hulk 2008
Report thisYour dead wrong about what Obama promised. He clearly stated in his campaign ” If I get elected to the presidency and we have the House and Senate then universal single payer would be my choice.” We the voters delivered on our end and got him elected. But he is not delivering on his promises. Since that campaign speech he has been retreating from single payer as the cash flowed in from the Insurance and Pharmaceutical donations to his campaign.
America need action now! We are in so many way under siege and more than ever need a strong LEADER to act. Too many people are dying every minute we delay in useless wars and needlessly, from lack of health care; while mega crooks get rewarded for devistating our ecconomy.
Obama promoted himself as the “white” knight to save us from the Bush legacy. I’m beginning to think that Bush was just Obama “light”. The American dream for the poor and middle class become a grotesque nightmare. Time is running out for our planet and our survival on it, because of the narcissistic interests of the sociopath, moneyed, elite who own Washington. No, we can not wait patiently while political pandering exacerbates the mess we as in. We need that CHANGE NOW!
By felicity, July 21 at 11:03 am #
Some of the comments on this blog fit the definition of a boomer: Between the snarls and whimpers, the ego-possesed, self-involved boomer is like a child playing at adult life. Put bluntly, you seem to have the patience of a three-year-old - particularly one who constantly complains from the back seat, “Are we there yet?”
Report thisBy felicity, July 21 at 10:16 am #
As long as Washington continues to pay more attention to loyalty and discretion than to vision or success meaningful legislaton of any kind won’t happen.
Cindi McCain during her husband’s campaign for president said, “Time to take off our Republican hats and put on our American hats.” What’s so obviously troubling in that statement is that apparently the two are, or can be, different. (Of course, inside Foggy Bottom they’ve been different for decades.)
Report thisBy Hulk2008, July 21 at 10:14 am #
To borrow a phrase from The Gipper, “There you go again…”. Obama has been in office less than 7 months and has been beaten up by all sides for “taking on too much” or “moving too fast”. Now progressives who thought he promised single-payer are moaning. If you check all his campaign speeches, the one recurrent theme was “if you like what you’ve got, you can keep it”. That surely means single-payer is only one of the options. And, unlike Hillary, he has let Congress do their thing before he jumps in with both feet.
Report thisThe Pres should publicly call the Repugs and pseudo-Dems at their word - maybe name specific names. If they want to slow down, make THEM define a firm deadline - not something vague. If they do have a working alternatives, dare them to spell out the details so the CBO can slam their ideas. AND he should demand they stay in town until their so-called “RIGHT” solution is done and CBO-blessed. Governors similarly insist on extended legistature sessions when a problem remains unresolved. Keep the recalcitrants in D.C. until their golf shoes get moldy.
There’s a very old joke about the parts of the body competing to see which should be the “leader” - the brain for its smarts, the hands for their facility, the feet for their speed, the gut for its energy. The joke ends when, without actually doing much, the Sphincter tightened up and within a week all other body parts capitulated.
And we all now know who the Sphincters of D.C. are…...
By LostHills, July 20 at 11:07 pm #
“Don’t bet against us.”
Report thisWho’s “Us?” The banks and insurance companies? I’ll take that bet. Because I think Obamaism is dying on the vine. The Democratic party needs progressives. That’s their base. Obama is flipping off the democratic base, and that is not going to work.
By FreeWill, July 20 at 8:14 pm #
What the FU&# Planet are you on? What a pile of political H.S. this article is.
Report thisObama so far has been a spineless failure extraordinaire! As a candidate he promised us a universal single payer system of health care. Now he flatly refuses to consider it! Bill HR 3200 is a sham. This bill is DESIGNED to nail the coffin shut on any possibility of ever having Universal Single Payer health care in this country. D. Kucinich’s amendment will be tossed out, you can bet on it. There is no way the insurance lobby will allow this exception to remain in. This bill will represent permanent protection and huge revenue increases for the insurance corporations and we the tax payers will foot the bill.
Just like the fake climate control bill which is great if your a coal company! It brings us no where near where we need to be to even begin to turn things arround.
Moreover, Most of the people he has chosen for his cabinet are in them selves a disaster. Change??? what change. For the most part they are either X Clinton crew or X or Corporate lackeys recycled for corporate interest. No, this is straight pay back time, to the money elite and Corporate interests who own him. Bush was horrible but reneging on the promises is definitely worse! Our expectations have been shattered. And if President Obama thinks he’s going to get a free ride next time around he ain’t reading the tea leaves right. I am definitely voting for Nader!
By Spiritgirl, July 20 at 5:46 pm #
I too am a progressive and have not been as appreciative of President Obama’s positions on more than a few issues. However, in the meantime, I feel it is my civic duty as an American to contact “my representative” and let them know how I feel about all of the issues that they are supposed to be taking up on behalf of “we the people”! I would hope that all of the people that are so disappointed in Mr. President realize: (1)the President doesn’t actually write legislation - that’s what Congress is supposed to do, (2)Mr. President alone cannot do it, it is going to take everyone - all of us contacting our representatives all of the time - reminding them why they are in office to face the challenges ahead and make the necessary choices for all of us!
Please don’t believe that simply because you voted, that is the end of your civic duty! Freedom isn’t free, those in this country that have been led down the roads of apathy and lies regarding the real functions of government - you need to go back to class so that you understand that in order for our “democracy” to function properly it takes an informed populace! In our current celebrity obsessed, corporate media info-tainment, diversionary me me culture very little real information is being “reported” to we the people, and no one appears to notice!
So before you sit down to your next “Reality show” maybe you should really participate in the “real world” you start by talking to people that don’t look like you or have your same viewpoints, you just might be surprised!
Report thisBy Jack J., July 20 at 3:19 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)
It ain’t over ‘til it’s over…and there’s 3 more years to go and a lot more Obama can AND will accomplish.
What about that don’t you whiners get?
Report thisBy Ivan hentschel, July 20 at 1:49 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)
Soaring rhetoric and sound bites don’t accomplish crap when reality hits the fan. Obama talks too much and does too little. Stop waving your celebrity fan and look around.
Report thisBy Anarcissie, July 20 at 1:20 pm #
Obama dumped the Left—the “progressives”—back in May of 2008, although his position papers showed he was an overt conservative before then. There was never a battle for “real change”. It is probably an improvement that we now have a rational, intelligent conservative instead of an ignorant right-wing radical in the presidency, and that we’ve shown that we can elected someone besides an old White guy to high office, but that’s about it.
Report thisBy hippie4ever, July 20 at 1:18 pm #
Granted Obama is a huge disappointment and pulled a major “bait-and-switch” regarding gay rights, Wall Street, American jobs, green technology, rendition and black sites…
but he’s not a fool and understands his career is finished in 2012 if he does not deliver on health care. Furthermore, the pressure from multinationals for a more European system is enormous; as it now stands health care in this country is putting corporations into red ink, and results in further job loss.
True, the corporate health care insurance industry has lots of clout, but in bankrupting the economy from incredible greed, they’ve created their own downfall.
So I’m taking a “wait and see” approach while I continue to regularly phone and write my “representatives” in Congress for single payer. I fear whatever passes from the Junta’s government will be awful, but perhaps it will also be a beginning to establish a system that actually heals the sick and promotes health. I know, I’ve obviously been smoking something.
Report thisBy "G"utless "W"itless Hitler, July 20 at 10:22 am #
RE LostHills:
Nevertheless, I bet you’ll glom onto some free healthcare if it comes your way, won’tcha?
Report thisBy LostHills, July 20 at 10:06 am #
I have never seen a sadder piece of political propaganda in my life. Or one that was more out of touch with reality.
Report thisBy Cathy, July 20 at 10:04 am #
I don’t know if you’ve looked at the bill, E.J., but the summary and the commentaries and the parts that I’ve read, this bill is a pile of garbage. It’s health insurance, not health care.
Obama lost the battle for real change when he refused to allow single-payer advocates at the table. Obama doesn’t get it, or he gets it and doesn’t care—as long as he can put “I passed health care reform” on his resume.
The very weak public option doesn’t go into effect until 2013 and there is voluntary participation by providers. I could go on and on, but so much has been written on this health care bill. Obama should be ashamed of himself. He is losing the entire progressive base, both Dem and Independent, like myself, over this issue and all of the other key issues. This is not what we voted for.
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