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Reports

The Nobelists vs. Obama and Geithner

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Posted on Apr 2, 2009

By E.J. Dionne, Jr.

    The great mystery of the Obama administration’s economic agenda is whether its signature marriage of boldness and caution will prove to be a Goldilocks recipe that gets things just right, or a Rube Goldberg approach of unimaginable complexity and uncertain purpose.

    Without question, President Obama’s tax and budget proposals are daring, and his unwavering commitment to passing health care reform this year is both honorable and gutsy. 

    But his plan to bail out the banks reveals a deference to the existing financial system, deep worry about further unsettling an already troubled market, and a devout hope that the economic situation is not as bad as some economists, notably Nobel Prize winners Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz, fear.

    As for the auto industry, Obama has stepped in aggressively to take effective control of General Motors by forcing out CEO Rick Wagoner. He told Chrysler it must merge with Fiat or die.

    But all these moves are in a context of caution about the ultimate purpose of the government’s actions. Obama placed strict limits on how long the federal government’s funds will be available to prop up the companies, and made clear that his only goal was to rebuild them to compete in the marketplace.

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    Some administration officials feared that this dual-track approach might win it support from absolutely no one, since it gave the domestic industry less help than its supporters hoped for but involved far more intervention than most free-market advocates could stomach. The better-than-expected initial reviews suggested that in the short term, the administration’s tightrope act had worked.

    Describing what Obama is up to leads quickly to sentences freighted with contradictions. He wants to regulate the market more tightly in order to save it. He thinks big government is required now if we are to return to a less-restricted economic system later. You might say that he is using collectivist means to capitalist ends.

    “We can’t fall back on the stale debates and old divides,” Obama said at his Wednesday news conference in London with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Obama’s alternative is a novel blend of opposing ideas.

    Nowhere are the challenges facing this method more dramatic than in the bank rescue. The debate over the plan is rooted in three disagreements.

    The most important is over whether some of the major banks are solvent or insolvent. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner believes that the toxic assets in their portfolios are temporarily undervalued in a bad economy. This means they will be worth more when the economy improves, which in turn means that the banks aren’t really broke. Krugman, the New York Times columnist who has emerged as Geithner’s most prominent critic, thinks the banks are insolvent. He believes that the economy will improve more slowly than Geithner does and sees many of the toxic assets as “trash.”

    Therefore, Krugman thinks a temporary government takeover of some of the banks is inevitable and will ultimately get the economy moving more quickly. Geithner thinks a takeover would be more difficult than its supporters allow and might slow economic recovery. He prefers the more cautious approach of having government and private investors buy up the toxic assets before considering more radical steps.

    The other two disagreements follow from the first. Critics of the administration plan (notably Stiglitz) believe it involves government subsidies for private investors that are much too large and will leave taxpayers far too exposed. And there is a difference in sensibility: Geithner simply has more trust in the working of the financial system than does Krugman, who recently criticized the administration as being “in the grip of the market mystique” and as overrating “the prowess of the wizards” who perform the market’s “magic.”

    Stiglitz is right to worry about the subsidies in the administration plan and Krugman has good reason to fear that the administration is too close to Wall Street’s view of reality. But the core question of whether the banks are insolvent is maddeningly difficult to resolve. If Geithner is correct, he will move us to recovery with less disruption. If he’s wrong, he will waste a lot of taxpayer money before eventually reaching the Krugman solution. My heart is with the Nobel critics, but my head hopes that Geithner is making the right bet.

    That’s the Obama enigma: boldness wrapped in caution rooted in an ambivalent relationship to the status quo. This is why Obama will, by turns, challenge not only his entrenched adversaries but also his natural allies.

    E.J. Dionne’s e-mail address is postchat(at)aol.com.

    © 2009, Washington Post Writers Group


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By SamSnedegar, April 6, 2009 at 6:10 pm Link to this comment

I don’t know Stiglitz from Adam’s off ox, but Krugman is typical of the pundits who don’t see it coming when it is obvious, and who complain loudly about not being consulted more than anything else.

I’d worry more about having Krugman on Obama’s side than I do about his bitching. If *I* saw it coming the day the Dow went over 7000, and *I* knew it would be BACK, Krugman should have known it and been protesting loud and long, but he let it pass and let the bigwigs do as they did.

My guess? Jon Stewart is a better economist than Krugman; I don’t know about Stiglitz. Why don’t you ask Scott Ritter what HE thinks about it all?

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By Gene Koch, April 6, 2009 at 7:45 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

I’m now assuming that President Obama, much like President Hoover, will eventually be faced with homeless encampments upon the national mall.  Just like the Bonus Army of 1932, once homeless veterans become part of the mix, by 2012 if the economy hasn’t healed by then, look for a rousting of that encampment and an election swung by the media coverage of the brutal removal of same.

Watch this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWvCCxOUsM8

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By RdV, April 6, 2009 at 6:11 am Link to this comment

“Obama MAY be the corporatist some fear he is, OR it may be that he’s merely interested in avoiding the fate of JFK, RFK, and MLK.”
This pathetic excuse.
Obama had no business to run if his excuse for capitulation is fear for his own hide. Imagine MLK giving himself that cover. Basically it is a set-up to allow him not to carry out change on any front- and to serve the status quo in the interests of personal security.

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racetoinfinity's avatar

By racetoinfinity, April 6, 2009 at 3:13 am Link to this comment

@ daga

IMO, it’s “yes and yes.”

You added to what Jon said.  I agree with both of you.  It’s true that Bill Clinton is being re-evaluated now and rightly so.  Anyway, I completely agree and further argue that 100% public financing of campaigns (despite the Supreme Court controversially declaring money to be free speech) is essential!

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By racetoinfinity, April 6, 2009 at 1:37 am Link to this comment

@ xrxs1020 -

You wrote:  “By pressuring president Obama to the be as progressive we want him to be, are we forcing him to risk JFK’s fate?”

NO.  First of all what pressure?  I don’t see much yet directly expressed to him - just anger in progressive blogs (some).  The idea that progressives will cower in fear of the plutocracy is a white flag of surrender to them - cowardly!

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By Purple Girl, April 5, 2009 at 6:32 am Link to this comment

Not interested in ‘One Trick Pony’ ideas..we need step by step plans to unravel 30 yrs of deregualtion and corruption.
Who’s $1 do they think is buried beneath those $40 of leveraged Toxic Assets? Considering it’s the ‘ratings’ firms who opened the Vault Doors to our ‘safe’ investment accounts..I’m guessing it’s all our Retirement funds.Who wants to tell the American People our Nesteggs have been crushed. I’m guessing that’s where all that ‘unaacounted’ money is going- being shoveled as fast as possible back into the ‘nest’. Oh we’re pissed about the possiblities of Huge Taxes, but we will hit the streets if we find those peices of paper aren’t worth the paper their printed on.
Do we really think these two Acedemia Gurus know what has truely happened. Lest we forget the concept of ‘Trickle Down’ was also spawned from the Halls of those who teach and do not do.Let’s all give a big round of applause to the various schools of Economics who not only pushed this treasonous doctrine, but have failed to call it what it truely is for the last 30 yrs- Feudalism.
I figure Geitner knows it’s more than merely his reputation on the line- but his neck. Just like ‘Sammy the Bull’ we need someone who knows first hand the workings of the orgnaized Crimes Syndicate Called Wall Street- to tell US where the bodies are buried, who put them there and how to avoid any ‘booby Traps’ along the way.
If they thought the solution to this economic meltdown was easy- they would have never revealed it to begin with. This is an absolute Clusterfuck that a one or even two Trick Pony will not resolve.Ever play ‘Jinga’? One wrong Pull or push and the tower collapses.Stratedgic Finesse and patience, along with a steady hand. Still Believe Obama is the Smartest man in the room.No hunk of metal is going to convince me otherwise, unless they are able to put forth a real step by step plan and provide an Absolute Guarantee it will work.

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By BetterThanNoSN, April 5, 2009 at 4:40 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

There is one question that has been dogging my brother and I and we can’t seem to figure it out.
If there is this $40-$50-$60 trillion in liabilities out there….to whom is this money owed?
The Illuminati? Countries? Citizenry? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

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By AmiBlue, April 4, 2009 at 8:52 am Link to this comment

Krugman’s and Stiglitz’s nationalization proposals are like the republicans budget - no numbers. 

When they figure out how much their plans will cost, let me know and I will listen to what they have to say.

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By xrxs1020, April 3, 2009 at 11:23 am Link to this comment

Obama MAY be the corporatist some fear he is, OR it may be that he’s merely interested in avoiding the fate of JFK, RFK, and MLK.  Of course, either way, the results in terms of Right wing power centers are similar.  Which is to say, Obama will continue to tantalize us with some decisions and disappoint us with others.  I’m mystified at some of his decisions (no single payer, won’t touch marijuana decriminalization, choosing Geithner, etc.) But it all might be explained by his simple desire to not end up like the aforementioned (assassinated) heros. 

Let’s not kid ourselves.  Right wing racists and oligarchs are as powerful as ever (in fact, more powerful, because they’ve had a 24/7 radio industry to trumpet their hate for twenty years).  They don’t take kindly to upstarts who would actually represent the middle class.  They play hardball.  People like this are responsible for three major assassinations enacted pretty much in plain view.  And they get away with it. 

None of this is rocket science, thus none of this could escape the attention of Barack Obama. 

By pressuring president Obama to the be as progressive we want him to be, are we forcing him to risk JFK’s fate?

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By psickmind fraud, April 3, 2009 at 9:13 am Link to this comment

thanks for the info, Jackpine.

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By PTDBD, April 3, 2009 at 8:53 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Financial Times reports that Bailed out Banks are considering bidding on Geithners PPIP. With the govt. $$$ leverage and maximum 10% loss they see an opportunity. If the deal goes sour, the govt. takes a 90% hit and the banks get bailed out again.

Then they can repeat the whole process ad infinitum. It’s a perpetual prestidigitizer money machine scheme.

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By Alex Hidell, April 3, 2009 at 8:36 am Link to this comment

Oh, I forgot to mention that without OUTLAWING derivatives, Obama is fated to a merry-go-round of bailouts that the taxpayers can’t sustain.

We’re being bled by Wall St.

I believe along with Nassim Taleb that derivatives need to be OUTLAWED

Mr Taleb Goes To Washington (see p.2)
http://tbm.thebigmoney.com/articles/judgments/2009/03/26/mr-taleb-goes-washington

““With complex derivatives unmasked and, in Taleb’s vision of the future, outlawed, the next step is to create a more robust version of capitalism. Taleb calls it Capitalism 2.0.”“

This is kind of a play on globalizationist Thomas Friedman’s Capitalism 2.uh-oh !

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By Alex Hidell, April 3, 2009 at 8:28 am Link to this comment

Uh, E.J., the banks ARE insolvent !

A large part of the problem is no one has a handle on the extent of the “toxic assets” and that is partly President Obama’s fault and partly Sec. Geithner’s fault and partly the MEDIA’S fault. A little noticed article, Steve Pizzo’s Follow The Numbers shows us that speculative derivatives numbers are overwhelming the world’s banking system

““Here’s the breakdown, according to the International Bank of Settlements, which acts as banker for the world’s central banks:

1) Listed credit derivatives stood at USD 548 trillion;
2. The Over-The-Counter (OTC) derivatives stood in notional or face value at USD 596 trillion”

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Follow-The-Numbers-by-Stephen-Pizzo-090302-530.html

World derivative debt is $1.14 Quadrillion USD. For the US banks share of that see Table 1, page 22 of 33 at

http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2008-152a.pdf

The jig is up folks. The US banks are essentially bankrupt, with $10.5 trillion in assets vs. $176 trillion in derivative debts.

At the April 2nd G20 meeting world leaders should WRITE OFF this toxic speculative derivative ‘debt’.

Put in further perspective, the entire world’s GDP, according to the CIA’s world book, is $71 trillion USD annually. Compare that with that $1.14 quadillion and you now understand that a huge transfer of wealth is taking place, crowding out legitimate recovery efforts.

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By so so sad, April 2, 2009 at 10:45 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

I voted for Obama because he was a much better choice, in my opinion, than McCain or the dimwit Palin.  However, I must admit that when I heard his pick of Geithner, I was extremely disappointed and had a very sick feeling in my stomach.  Wasn’t he involved in the Clinton/Roubin/Graham repel of the Glass Stiegel act, which was one of the many causes of what is happening right now? 

I would like to know why it is ok for all of these CEO’s and top executives, so called SEC and other overseers (S&P) as well as many politicians to be walking away with millions of dollars in their pockets, not to mention all the other assets they’ve accumulated over the past few years, while at the same time taking these companies along with the economy and regular people’s livelihoods down the tubes? 

It is time to say ENOUGH!  Take back these outrageous salaries, bonuses, benefits after death as well as the houses and other assets they’ve bought and been given and forget about the bailout.  There’s plenty of money to fix this thing; it’s just in the wrong hands and hidden in tax shelters and other countries by the same crooks who made this happen. Theft by the few and suffering for the many.

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By jackpine savage, April 2, 2009 at 2:03 pm Link to this comment

psickmind fraud,

GM doesn’t make the Hummer.  They make the civilian version of the Humvee, which amounts to AM General selling the naming rights.  The first civilian Hummers were actual Humvees (with lead weights bolted here and there to make them weigh enough that they didn’t have to pass passenger vehicle crash tests).  That isn’t the case anymore.

The Hummer you see on the road is just a full size GM SUV with a bunch of plastic body panels tacked on.  And they are completely useless for anything more treacherous than the pavement of the cul-de-sac.  They aren’t the same vehicle.

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By P. T., April 2, 2009 at 11:02 am Link to this comment

Obama does not think there currently exist social movements in this country that would empower him to take bolder action.  As a former community organizer, he is very sensitive to what he believes is the current distribution of power.

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By tdbach, April 2, 2009 at 10:32 am Link to this comment

You don’t have to trust them, JP. You just have to live with them.

Obama earned the right to solve this mess the way he sees best. We can bark warnings and criticisms from the sidelines, but lets face it, we’re not in the game. And that’s as it should be. After a year or two…well, we have political ways to send a message of discontent.

This isn’t like complaining about Bush, who was torturing, invading countries unprovoked, and spying on Americans without a warrant.

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By Dag Andersson, April 2, 2009 at 9:50 am Link to this comment

@Jon

This president is getting the same signals that Congress has been getting since Reagan:  its all about the military industrial complex, banks, and corporate power

Yes and no.
It is true that US’ downturn started with Reagan, but what made the situation worse was Clinton and the democrats abandonment of its traditional powerbase-the unions and the progressives to catch up with the republican advantage in funding (from as you said-the MIRBs (Military Industrial Robber Barons)) in the mid- 1990ies.
  I believe the only way you can take your country back is to put an end to corporate financing of political campaigns and impose restrictions on K-street.

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By psickmind fraud, April 2, 2009 at 8:51 am Link to this comment

Jackpine, I might just add 3)Obama has over 22 million reasons to act as the financial sector desires, whereas Krugman, Stiglitz and all the other economists I’ve read don’t have those monetary influences on their judgement. 

On another note, if we don’t have GM, what will the Army and Marines do for vehicles without the Hummers? Smart cars?

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By P. T., April 2, 2009 at 8:37 am Link to this comment

President Obama, like President Bill Clinton before him, is reluctant to tangle with special interests he deems too powerful:  Wall Street, the health insurance industry (no to single payer), the Israel lobby.  Obama is quite cautious.

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By Jon, April 2, 2009 at 7:53 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

I noticed during the campaign that Sen. Obama had a gift for dismissing debate and issues he did not want to deal with: “its no longer relevant to..[fill in the blank on your favorite issue such as health care, or prosecuting Bush, or FISA].”  And I thought:  he’s gonna do this after he’s president—-so easily dismiss issues that we care about.  And, he is.

Banking regulations:  its looking back, not forward.
Health Care: single payer is off the table, obviously.
etc.

This president is getting the same signals that Congress has been getting since Reagan:  its all about the military industrial complex, banks, and corporate power.  Citizens can pound salt—from their tents in the various tent cities around the country.

Obama is a globalist, and a corporatist.  If he is not, then let’s see the evidence that he is working FOR Americans and not the banks and corporations.

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By jackpine savage, April 2, 2009 at 4:10 am Link to this comment

The differences between the two sides of the economic debate are rooted in two things:

1. Some are using numbers, history, and facts while others are using hope and belief.

2. Some are speaking from a fairly objective point of view while others are chin deep in a mess that they created.

Who would you believe?

And Obama’s team is working on the belief that there was nothing fundamentally wrong with how the system operated prior to breaking down (though if it was working very well it probably wouldn’t have broken down…the bad economy is a result of the breakdown, not the cause of the breakdown).

Plenty of top-notch economists, investors, and business types were warning about the problems several years ago…yet the administration is holding fast to the “no one could have seen this coming” rationale.

I guess will just have to subsist on Hope(Tm), because there doesn’t look to be any of the explanations offered by the likes of Krugman and Stiglitz coming from the administration.  It all boils down to “trust us”.

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By everynobody, April 2, 2009 at 2:29 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

I don’t really know the answer; but I do find it very interesting that the capitalists want to play their game unfettered and when they fail they want to avoid the death all failed businesses suffer…bankruptcy. There is something fundamentally wrong headed with that logic: capitalism without consequences isn’t capitalism. I don’t see how “they” can have it both ways and still call it a free market. Fixed market is more accurate. There has got to be a price to pay and right now it looks like we’ll pay that price; and that’s just plain wrong!

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