E.J. Dionne, Jr.: Once Again, It’s a Fight for Florida

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Once Again, It’s a Fight for Florida

Posted on Oct 26, 2008

By E.J. Dionne, Jr.

ORLANDO, Fla.—Florida provides the appropriate closing metaphor for the 2008 campaign.

If John McCain were on a clear path to victory, there would be no campaign here at all. Yet there was McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin, battling on Sunday across the state’s crucial central corridor in Tampa and Kissimmee. Come Wednesday, Bill Clinton will campaign with Barack Obama—the former president’s first joint appearance with the Democratic nominee—at an evening rally here.

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of south Florida spoke for many of her fellow Democrats: “People are so excited that we have a presidential campaign that is still here.” Translation: She and others in her party are amazed that Obama has a real chance to carry this state.

The fact that McCain is on the defensive here and in such a broad swath of Republican territory is emblematic of the 2008 endgame. It is a sign of the extent to which Obama has out-organized and out-strategized McCain, and an indication of how almost all the issues have moved against the GOP.

Of all of the now-competitive red states, Florida is the one in which Obama started at the steepest disadvantage.

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The state’s decision to move up its primary in violation of Democratic Party rules—creating what Rep. Robert Wexler, another south Florida Democrat, calls its “non-primary primary” that Obama felt obligated to skip—meant that the eventual nominee got a late start here.

The home of so many retirees, Florida’s median age is three years older than the nation’s, and seniors have been especially resistant to Obama.

As a result, said Alex Castellanos, a Republican consultant who has worked on statewide and congressional races here, “I thought for quite a while that McCain had his hands on this state.”

Obama dissented from this view. He has made repeated visits here, advertised heavily while McCain was hoping he wouldn’t have to fight for the state, and built what Wasserman Schultz called “the best and most comprehensive grass-roots organization that I have ever seen.”

“They have offices in places that have never seen a presidential campaign,” she said in an interview, pointing to the campaign’s work in Immokalee, a heavily Latino community in the Everglades area.

As Obama laid the groundwork for winning the state, events conspired against McCain and so did some of his own decisions.

“If there is a state in the country where the vice presidential choice will be determinative, it is Florida,” Wexler said in a phone conversation. Obama’s choice of Joe Biden, he said, was seen “particularly among seniors as a responsible exercise in sound judgment.” The choice of Palin, by contrast “was an unqualified negative for McCain in south Florida.” Traditionally Democratic Jewish voters, some of whom had been resistant to Obama, began coming home.

Then came the collapse of the stock market, which had an especially dramatic effect here. “You have seniors who are living what I call ‘no-margin-for-error lives,’ ” Castellanos said. “The slightest tremor in their lives just rocks them. ... When this economic meltdown occurred, you saw a lot of seniors move.”

But even before the financial crisis, said David Axelrod, Obama’s top strategist, Florida’s particular economic problems were already moving younger families Obama’s way, too. “While the whole country is struggling, Florida has felt the sting of the economic downturn even more,” he said, citing job losses and the state’s large home-foreclosure problem. “People will tolerate only so much red ink in their own lives.”

Wasserman Schultz argued that the state’s image as a haven for retirees leads outsiders to underestimate the importance of the “surge of working families” into Florida in recent years. Rep. Kathy Castor, a Democrat who represents Tampa, said Obama’s economic arguments have found resonance in her “diverse working-class” district, particularly his emphasis on expanding health coverage and his criticisms of McCain’s support for partially privatizing Social Security.

In the face of these pressures, even Republican bastions are starting to crumble. The state’s large Cuban-American electorate is a case in point. Castellanos, himself a Cuban-American, said that while older immigrants from Cuba will continue to vote Republican, younger Cuban-Americans are now open to the Democrats and Obama.

McCain may yet hang on to Florida. But the fact that he is struggling so hard, so late is a sign of how Obama’s organizational and fundraising prowess has changed the nation’s political map and how drastically the economic crisis could alter the contours of American politics.

E.J. Dionne’s e-mail address is postchat(at)aol.com.

TAGS: campaign clinton democrats dionne election florida mccain obama palin politics

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By shelleii, October 29, 2008 at 2:28 pm Link to this comment

VISIT VIETNAMVETS AGAINST JOHN MCCAIN FOR SOME INTERESTING READING. MCCAIN SANG LIKE A BIRD WHEN HE WAS CAPTURED, HE CAUSED AMERICAN SUPPLY PLANES TO BE SHOT DOWN WHEN HE GAVE DROP COORDINANTS. WHEN HE CRASHED ONE OF THE MANY PLANES HE COULDN’T FLY, HE CAUSED A FIRE ON THE FARRAGUT (?) AND THEN WENT TO THE PILOTS REC AREA, WHILE OTHERS STUGGLED TO SAVE THE SHIP—139 MEN DIED FROM THE FIRE HE CAUSED. AND THEY ONLY GAVE HIM CHEST SALAD ‘CAUSE HE WAS A POW NOT A HERO, PLUS HIS DAD BEING AN ADMIRAL DIDN’T HURT A BIT..

HE WAS BORN IN PANAMA—I THINK OUTSIDE THE CANAL ZONE AND, AS SUCH, IS UNCONTITUTIONALLY UNQUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT.

ALSO I PERSONALLY WOULD NEVER VOTE FOR ANYONE WHO WAS (SUPPOSEDLY?) TORTURED IN ANY WAY. HE HAS MOOD SWINGS LIKE A M******F******.

GO HOME AND ORDER A COPY OF THE “MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE” AND REALLLLLY THINK HARD IF YOU ARE THINKING OF VOTING MCCAIN. THEN THINK AGAIN.

PALIN: A DITSY, YET BITCHY NOTHING, NOT WORTH DISCUSSING.

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By Louise, October 27, 2008 at 7:39 am Link to this comment

My friend, Bob the retired designer and his significant other, Toni the retired caterer, moved to Florida and built their dream home. They don’t golf [such a waste of time] but they do worry about their retirement income. Which is why they are out there campaigning for Obama.

Being a very senior citizen, I resent the implication that us old folks have no sense, Florida or otherwise. We have a LOT of sense and a lot of experience and most of all, we’ve had it up to here with republican leadership! ‘Cause that’s a lot of years of living through REALLY BAD leadership!

Besides, Floridians have been the butt of everything bad since “Bush the Younger” managed to turn their 2000 election into the nightmare from hell! Trust me, they do not want a repeat of that! So I suspect, as a hedge against infamous republican voter caging, they will turn out in droves.

Droves voting for Obama!

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By Aegrus, October 27, 2008 at 7:17 am Link to this comment

DR, I’d thank you to not lump all Floridians into one category. The Cuban population holding animosity towards the Castro brothers largely votes Republican, and is not representative of the growing progressive base in Southern Florida.

Our issues matter a lot to the rest of the country because of Florida’s diversity of environment, political persuasions, ethnicity, age and labor. We are the fourth most populous state in America and have an immense influence across party lines because new political ideas are often tested here first.

Our state has a unique history, and shouldn’t be written off as cemetery grounds or Little Cuba.

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By Purple Girl, October 27, 2008 at 5:36 am Link to this comment

Mac has Ties with Big Oil, Big Banking, crooked Lobbists, ” ‘80’s Afghani Freedom fighters”....EVERY peice of Evidence of the UnAmerican Activities of John McCain stand right over His shoulder.
Every time McCain accuse Sen Obama f something within two days we hear it is HIM who has the real nefarious connections.This National Criminal has been playing you all for decades.Your Desparation is Like a One night Stand who keeps trying to ‘Hook Up ‘again. He’s an Asshole, get over it.It’s time you warn the others he seeks to victimize…US!
Every time you ask why mac’s cmpaign is still on the ‘Ayers’ kick, YOU give it Credence. Everytime You repeat Mac’s charge of ‘Socialism’ You aid him in his misrepresentation. Funny you have NEVER bothered to equate ‘Trickle Down’ with Feudalism, Monarchies and Dictators FAVORITE economic stratdegy- Never, Not once, in nearly 30 yrs have you ever even whispered this FACT!
If there was a TRue Liberal Media (or even a Free Media0 We would have heard numerous questions about Mac’s anti Communists Groups aid & comfort to AQ in the ‘80’s, You’d be mentioning th esimilarities of this economic meltdown to the Keating scandal, You’d be pointing out Who Phil Gramm is and Who His wife Worked for (ties Banking to Energy). You would address the Questions all over the blogs about McCains self Proclaimed ‘glory Story’. You’d have made more mention about his constant blocking of Military information (MIA/POW) and Funding.
You would ahve at least Pointed out - correctly- that Mac’s so called Surge was nothing more than a patch onthe Fuck up by this admin NOT to follow the Powell Doctrine. You Never even asked him WHO told him the Anthrax was from Saddam, and WHY He felt compelled to Leak such confidential information!
I Do NOT Know John McCain and the Media has Done nothing to enlighten me
You have let this False Story line play out without ever challenging it’s Claims.
“Liberal Media” MY ASS, Free Press even more ridiculous!

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By davidperi, October 27, 2008 at 4:46 am Link to this comment

I emailed my friend, Joe the retired papermill worker who is living in central florida. Asked him if was teased because he was a “Joe”. He said that he and his republican friends are only interested in their golf scores and football. Such is life for my friend, Joe, the retired papermill worker.

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By DR, October 27, 2008 at 3:46 am Link to this comment

Because of Obama’s opening up of the West and of his significant inroads into Virginia (where he leads by 8 to 10 points), Florida is no longer the powerhouse it used to be. Floridians will have to learn to accept that their own petty hatreds can no longer run the country (like their outdated animus towards the Castros, which is STILL ruining Cuba).

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