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 The Battle for MichiganPosted on Sep 18, 2008GRAND RAPIDS, Mich.—If he carries Michigan, many routes to victory are open for Barack Obama. Without Michigan, he’s got a big problem. This state, which was living with economic catastrophe long before this week’s Wall Street meltdown, could be to this election what Ohio was in 2004 and Florida was in 2000. And voters here are so angry—about unemployment measured at 9 percent and some of the country’s highest rates of foreclosures and outbound one-way U-Haul rentals—that no one is certain where they will lash out. “What’s challenging about Michigan is that they’ve suffered this economy in its worst form,” said Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster who has studied the state for years. “They blame the Democratic governor and the Democratic Party, and the Republican president and the Republican Party, and an elite they believe sold out their state.” It’s no wonder, then, that John McCain and Sarah Palin held their first joint town hall meeting in this solidly Republican city on Wednesday, or that McCain played his newly discovered populist tune during a visit earlier in the day at a General Motors plant. “We are not going to leave the workers here in Michigan hung out to dry,” McCain said, “while we give billions in taxpayer dollars to Wall Street.” Advertisement Michigan matters hugely because to assemble an Electoral College victory, Obama must hold the states carried by John Kerry four years ago, and this is the most vulnerable of the big Kerry states. “Michigan,” says Greenberg, “is the key to the whole map.” Most polls have given Obama a small lead, but he has special problems here. Because of the Democrats’ wrangle over delegate rules, Obama did not campaign in the state’s primary. “There’s a lot of catch-up going on,” says Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat. Republicans are also trying to link Obama to Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm, whose popularity has suffered with the economy. Saul Anuzis, Michigan’s Republican chairman, describes Granholm as “an articulate, attractive woman who happens to be a Harvard graduate,” generous words that he uses as a stiletto against fellow Harvard Law graduate Obama. “If you like what Jennifer Granholm has done in Michigan, you’ll love what Barack Obama will do for America,” says Anuzis, reciting the Republicans’ battle cry. But Democrats such as Stabenow scoff at the idea that Republicans will be able to use Granholm to dodge local ire over President Bush’s policies. The choice of Palin has been helpful to McCain in western Michigan with its large constituency of conservative Christians. On Wednesday, the faithful here greeted her with loud cries of “Sarah! Sarah! Sarah!” And noting the Palin family’s penchant for snowmobiling, Anuzis reports that Michigan has the largest number of registered snowmobiles in the country—more than 300,000, according to the American Council of Snowmobile Associations. Obama is counting on a huge African-American vote in Detroit, but the city’s politics are in turmoil following Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick’s departure from office Thursday as part of a plea agreement related to perjury charges. Anuzis said the controversy has left the Detroit Democratic organization “splintered and divided.” And a pro-McCain group has run an ad, clearly aimed at white suburban voters, linking Obama and Kilpatrick. Anuzis is one of the few Republican politicians who say openly that Obama’s race will inescapably be an electoral factor. “Racism, like sexism, is not something people admit to,” Anuzis says. He notes that McCain voters typically offer diverse reasons for supporting their candidate over Obama. His conclusion: “When they have five or six reasons, it’s usually for another reason they don’t want to mention.” “It is one of the most taboo subjects people can talk about,” Anuzis adds. “Every time I bring it up, people cringe.” But by forcing Obama to sharpen his economic appeal, the bad news from Wall Street may prove to be a particularly potent tonic for his chances here. Former Democratic Congressman David Bonior believes that a very bad economy will brush aside “the Reagan Democrat social issues that are normally important in our state.” So does Stabenow. “For us to win Michigan, people have to understand that Barack Obama is going to put people back to work,” she says. “That’s going to trump every other division in the state.”  Previous item: Reality Catches Up to the Free Market Next item: No Time for a Minimalist New and Improved CommentsIf you have trouble leaving a comment, review this help page. Still having problems? Let us know. If you find yourself moderated, take a moment to review our comment policy. |
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By bipolar2, September 20, 2008 at 2:16 pm Link to this comment
words, words, words. sick of pontificating know-nothings, trolls, MSM talking heads?
projections: if election were held today (20 Sept)
Source: 1. Electoral Votes: 291 Obama—247 McCain
Source: 2. Electoral Votes: 306 Obama—232 McCain
1. http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-electoral-votes-for-obama/
2. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
Report thisBy RightWing, September 20, 2008 at 11:50 am Link to this comment
The people in Mi. have seen what the Dem party has done, Mi. is a solid red
Report thisBy rbloom, September 20, 2008 at 11:35 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
I’ve been saying for some time that it’s going to come down to MI, CO and VA—whoever wins two out of those three takes the ballgame. I think when all is said and done, PA and NH will stay blue and OH and FL will stay red. IA and NM are already solidly blue. (These are mostly gut calls, but my gut is as good as any polling methodology this far out.)
Report thisSo, Obama can lose MI and win with CO and VA—a 269-269 EV tie, which will make the 2000 post-election fracas look like a spitwad fight, but Obama will win in the House.
By jackpine savage, September 20, 2008 at 9:18 am Link to this comment
Kashinulus,
Most of those snow machines were purchased in better times, and at least up here in snowmobile country there are a lot of them sitting on the side of the road with “for sale” signs.
To all,
Michigan is a diverse state…or perhaps even two states in one. The economics and politics of the north are not the same as those of the south (or “under the bridge” as we say in da UP…though i was born and raised in Detroit)
Obama will have to work hard because the Dem establishment is somewhat tattered. There is no doubt that Granholm got dealt a shitty hand, but she’s also played it terribly. He must overcome that. I would also suggest that he take a swing through the Upper Peninsula, not because we have a lot of votes but because he actually has something of a chance up here…if he appeals to common sense. The very red UP has consistently sent a Democrat (Stupak) to Congress because they know/trust him. It is not uncommon for UP voters to tell you that they vote straight ticket Republican, except for Stupak.
Obama needs to make inroads in Stupak’s district so that it, at least, doesn’t negate what he’ll get in the Metro Detroit area.
But for the record, Michigan is a bad place for Obama to need to win…it is to politically unpredictable.
Report thisBy Former Michigander now in Lebanon, September 19, 2008 at 1:07 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
Governor Granholm is sincere, honest, and good for Michigan and America. She “gets it.” Remember when GW could not find Iraq on a map (and he has attacked and killed hundreds of thousands of “them foreigners”)?
Most Americans can not find the US on a globe, why should we expect them to care about us/it?
America?/!
Report thisBy Kashilinus, September 19, 2008 at 8:19 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
“Largest number of registered snowmobiles in the country.” Seems a bit at odds with claims of a suffering population.
Report thisBy Juanjo, September 19, 2008 at 7:13 am Link to this comment
Purple girl, whoever you are.
That’s the passion and conviction that our country needs all around to overcome the corporate junta that took over this country in 2000.
Unlike the traditional military juntas that used to be fashionable in Latin America, this 21st century dictatorship has no mustached generals but well groomed morons with law degrees and the ethics of a vulture.
Report thisBy Purple Girl, September 19, 2008 at 4:52 am Link to this comment
Please as a MI Dem, I will admit Gov Granholm has not been effective in turning this State back into the Pro Labor Power house it once was…But the Repugs hold control of our State Congress. the Big 3 have controlled this state through graft, discrimation and Intimidation for Decades!
Report thisIf Michiganders Hate any Body it is the collective known as the Big 3!We know exactly who Fucked Us over and spit on our ancestors graves.
Granted there are a number of Long time Politicians that need to not only be kicked out but prosectuted for their part in underining Michigan- TREASON!
bu tone thing Michiganders are cognizant of is that Repugs Always Tote the Corp Line. Who benefited by Turning this Pro Labor State into a ‘Will To Work State’- The Big 3. Who shipped our jobs over seas, demanding concessions from the rank & file while granting Huge Bonus’ to their Top Brass.
So Thinking Michignaders Know exactly who has been Barring Gov Granholm for making any headway on our Economy- Same ones who’ve been fucking Us up since the ‘70’s! And the Repug’s Know it- so now they are attempting to suppress voters with their latest Anti American Tactic of using foreclosure lists to Intimidate the MI voter…Watch it Boys We Will ‘Bloody Your Noses’. If you were to determine which State HATES Corp’s Michigan would be on the Top of the list- far and beyond any other.Our ancestors Built those National and international Economic Forces and they turned around an left Us like a Dead Whore on 8 & Woodward!
for Decades the Motto was ‘buy American’...Well in Michigan We are beginning to say Fuck That, I’m buying what I can afford, and has far fewer problems and better consumer ratings.
The Big 3 intentional fucked over MI and th eCountry in th e’80’s when they bowd down to the Oil Corps and REFUSED to Retool/Redesign for Fuel Efficiency and Alterntives. Nor until the Japenese began kicking their Asses in the market did they change designs…for a Blink of an Eye.Yet still refused to consider the innovation of the Electric Car…In the ‘80’s!! Who got american’s ‘Addicted to Oil’ from the Middle East….GM,FORD and CHRYSLER! Their Suburbans, Escalades, Hummers, Explorers, nothing more than Herione to keep US hooked. So Big Oil are th esuppliers and The Big3 are their Pushers!
And we Know exactly Which Party, and Which Candidate has been Blowing both of these Depts of this Organized Crime Syndicate, Domestic Traitors and Enemies!And the Repugs Know It!
Do you remember the The Head Busting during the ‘50’s…...You ain’t seen nothing yet if Republican Chairman Carabelli tries to bar Foreclosed Homeowners from Voting in Nov. The Riots in Detroit during the ‘60’s will look like a Fucking Parade!
Bidens ‘Bloody their Nose’ is Not just an Irish adage, it’s a Michigan Creed!
I worked for Jimmy Hoffa’s ‘Enforcer’ Roland McMasters. I have come to realize the only ones who benefited from His ‘disappearance’ as Union Leader was the Big 3, Not the Mafia.Our Unions have been undermined Ever since- Plant closings, layoffs, concessions, Downsizing,reduced benefit packages and of course the legislative outrage ‘Will to Work’ . As the old Saying goes ‘Pay backs a Bitch!’.