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Reports

Farewell, General—but Did You Bring Iraq Hope?

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Posted on Sep 17, 2008
AP photo / Dusan Vranic

By Patrick Cockburn

Originally published in The Independent.

General David Petraeus, whose 15 months in command of US troops in Iraq has seen a dramatic fall in violence in the country, stepped aside today to be replaced by General Ray Odierno, previously his second in command.

The General feted in the US for turning the war around was notably modest about his achievement at a leaving ceremony at Camp Victory, saying that, when he took command in February 2007, he had described the situation as “hard but not hopeless” while now it was “hard but hopeful.”

General Odierno said: “We must realise that these gains are fragile and reversible, and our work here is far from done.”

General Petraeus now takes over the US Central Command where he will be in overall charge of US forces in the Middle East as well as in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

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During the period in which General Petraeus was in command in Iraq, the Sunni Arab insurgency, responsible for inflicting losses of 4,150 dead and 30,000 wounded on the US army, largely ended its uprising against the US occupation.

The outgoing commander is being credited at home for transforming the war through the ‘surge’, the reinforcement of the US army with 30,000 extra troops who pursued a more aggressive policy against insurgents. The civil war between Shia and Sunni which wracked Baghdad and central Iraq in 2005-7 is no longer leading to mass slaughter.

The extra five combat brigades sent to Iraq for the ‘surge’ have now been withdrawn, but it is a measure of the limits of American military success that only another 8,000 US soldiers will be withdrawn from Iraq by the time President Bush ends his presidency next February. This will leave 138,000 US troops in Iraq, which is a higher figure than the number in Iraq before the surge. The US embassy in Baghdad and the Iraqi government are eager to present a picture of Iraq as a country returning to normal life. But the supply of electricity in many parts of the capital is only two hours a day. The 4.7 million Iraqis, one in six of the population, who fled their homes to take refuge elsewhere in Iraq or in Syria and Jordan, are not going back. Iraq remains an extraordinarily dangerous country.

On Monday a woman suicide bomber blew herself up at a coming home party for an Iraqi police sergeant named Adnan Shukri al Timimi in a town called Balad Ruz in Diyala province north east of Baghdad, killing 22 people and wounding 33. Al Qa’ida was almost certainly responsible for the attack, showing that even if they are a diminished force, they can still strike in most of central Iraq.

As American commander in Iraq General Petraeus’ main asset was his astute sense of Iraqi politics rather than any new military strategy. As commander of the 101st Airborne Division based in Mosul in northern Iraq in 2003-4 he was able for a time to prevent the rebellion against the US occupation developing by making sure that Sunni officers did not become victims of de-Baathification. His success did not long survive his departure but he was far more sensitive to what Iraqis were thinking than other American commanders.

Above all he was very lucky in the moment that he took command. By the beginning of 2007 the civil war between Sunni and Shia was already beginning to wind down because it had been won by the Shia who controlled three quarters of Baghdad. Al Qa’ida in Iraq had overplayed its hand in the Sunni community in late 2006 by establishing the Islamic State of Iraq and had tried to take total control.

The Sunni tribes and the nationalist and Baathist insurgents were being squeezed between the Shia militias, al-Qa’ida and the Americans. It was they who were responsible for most American losses while al-Qa’ida had given priority to waging sectarian war against the Shia. There was an implosion of the insurgency which the General was able to take advantage of.

The undeclared political strategy behind the surge was more effective than any new military tactics. This was to co-opt the Sunni insurgents and take advantage of the fact that Iran is the foreign power most influential in Iraq after the US. The Iranians do not like the US presence in Iraq but they do support the Iraqi government which is dominated by their Shia co-religionists. “The present Iraqi government is about as good as it is going to get for the Iranians,” said a senior Iraqi Minister. It was the Iranians, and not the US army, who persuaded Muqtada al-Sadr, the powerful Shia cleric, to withdraw his militiamen from the streets earlier this year.

General Petraeus’s oft declared uncertainty about the future stability of Iraq is genuine. It is the Iraqi Shia and their Iranian backers, not the Americans, who are the true victors in the Iraqi war.


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By yellowbird2525, September 22, 2008 at 1:06 pm Link to this comment

sometimes I wonder if our country will ever wake up to the truth: our country tries to bribe politicians; if they refuse; they conspire to overthrow that person; when THAT is done, they set up a dictatorship or throughly corrupt politician like themselves folks: who will do their bidding. THIS is exactly what went down in Iran: the USA went to Saddam Hussain, bribed, flattered, weaponed him up to overthrow the Gov that would NOT accept bribes from USA conglomerates; so: they set up the Shah; when he was overthrown, the USA is once again in the process of overthrowing Iran: and multiple other Gov’s across the globe; for THEIR interests which is NEVER in the benefit of the people HERE or THERE; but for the pocketbooks of the wealthy; like they say: we have gotten away with it in the USA for years: let’s take it globally. Every single other country & nation EXCEPT the USA understands, & recognizes this. And wonders WHY we accept enslavement to Corps: instead of freedom such as Denmark, Norway, Sweden & multiple other countries do; we are the deceived; NOT the free; nor even of majority vote. It’s kind of like school: when THAT is the only reality you know while attending it, you BELIEVE it IS the reality; when indeed it is NOT. Or the man who beats his wife while continually telling her “I am the best thing that ever happened to you”; same psychology being used folks; and off we march to be blown to bits, missing arms, legs; coming back to be told “no $ for medical care for YOU.” and the Gov saying “all military personnel have mental problems & the Corps saying we are not going to hire them”; in the interim lots of $ to illegals; going to pay for all college schooling for them; but to the disabled Americans who returned living: no jobs, no medical, no pensions; and the Christians: well, it was decided by a judge that no Christian school graduates could attend colleges in Calif; they “didn’t” measure up to the “requirements” (aclj); figured it out yet folks?

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By Tony Wicher, September 22, 2008 at 11:20 am Link to this comment

To me it’s a very important principle that generals must follow the orders of the President or resign. Shinseki properly resigned. Petraeus decided to take the job. Making that decision is tantamount to being willing to put up with all kinds of abuse from anyone politically opposed to the war. I thought he has been careful to stay away from the kinds of political claims that the Republicans make about the success of the “surge” which I take to mean Petraeus’ new counterinsurgency strategy, which certainly involved political components such as buying off the right people. The level of violence did diminish for various reasons of which this new strategy seems to be one. Why not give him a little credit? He’s not the one that got us into this mess. He’s just a soldier.

Barack Obama is absolutely right and has been right all along that that the basic political problems have not been solved, and we are still spending $10 billion a month there to no good purpose. There is nothing to do but get the troops out of there and let the people living in the area work it out, and that is what I expect to see over the next year.

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By Getreal, September 21, 2008 at 10:15 pm Link to this comment

The article is good, but a wee bit coy about the tons of $$$ being paid to the Sunny to stop aiming their guns at US soldiers and aim them instead at al-Qa’ida, which was never popular at all and, as the author says, overplayed its hand. al-Qa’ida is a gang of serious nut-case religious fanatic control freaks whose bloody tactics make Sunni insurgents look like boyscouts. Turning Sunni insurgents against them for piles of loot was not difficult. “Here’s the cheque”.

Iraq under Saddam was rough, but it also was a sophisticated society with a lot of freedoms particularly in the 70s and 80s before things got bad with the war with Iran. But before then, there was lots of money from oil, western-style dress was popular (for women as well as men), women went to university, etc. Not at all like Saudi Arabia.

Saddam, it must be remembered, was a ‘socialist’ (of a very weird authoritarian kind…huge fan of Stalin!!) and deeply afraid of the religious nuts, hence the war with Iran—supported and encouraged by the US. (Imagine the supidity of trying to link him to al-Qa’ida, his biggest enemy; to al-Qa’ida, Sadam was exactly the kind of leader—Godless socialist!!—who had to be replaced by a theocratic gov’t.

So the Sunnies, who had been the ruling elite, had enjoyed the good life, and the austere, nasty, life-denying religious extremism of al-Qa’ida didn’t interest them at all. Plus, al-Qa’ida wanted to take over and control. So getting paid by the US to fight these idiots was a serious win/win/win for everybody. Sunny insurgents got money; they stopped killing Americans; and they put the run on al-Qa’ida. Effective, but not exactly tactical military brilliance. How long for that loot, though??

And as the author says, by the time Patraeus took over, the Shiites had won the civil war and had pretty well ‘cleansed’ all Shiite neighbourhoods of Sunny families, so of course the violence naturally went down.

So, Patraeus is a “good” general?! Here’s what his superior at the time (Adm. William Fallon) thought of him :  Fallon told Petraeus [in March, 2007] that he considered him to be “an ass-kissing little chickensh*t” and added, “I hate people like that”, the sources say.

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By bat guano, September 20, 2008 at 12:15 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Petraeus appeared unsure about the future stability of Iraq, is he kidding - if we pull out on Tuesday by Wednesday morning it’s in chaos and he knows it.

It is a complete and utter waste but its made a lot of money for Bu$h and friends.

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By Tony Wicher, September 20, 2008 at 12:01 am Link to this comment

Re TheRealFish, September 18 at 2:10 am #


Petraeus should certainly feel the future is “fragile” but a little less proud about this supposedly “huge success” of that surge…’

——————————————————————————
TheRealFish,

It’s McCain who called the “surge” a “huge success”. I haven’t noticed Petraeus ever saying this. He seems to be rather modest and self-effacing in public. I give him credit for doing the best that could be done in a bad situation. I think he was told by Obama that it is time to leave Iraq, but last I heard he was heading in the direction of Afghanistan, where Obama has said he will send two brigades. Perhaps we will get to see how his counterinsurgency strategy works in Afghanistan under an Obama administration.

Right away I can see Folktruther and a host of others here pouncing on me saying this prospect only proves an Obama administration will just be a continuation of the Bush foreign policy. The way I see it, if Petraeus happens to be a good general, Obama should use him. Good generals are hard to come by.

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By Purple Girl, September 19, 2008 at 3:18 am Link to this comment

If Mac could reach is own back He would have broken his arm patting it. The troop numbers are still higher than prior to the So called ‘Surge’- which was nothing mroe than finally sending the necessary troops which were not deployed to begin with.
“Powell Doctrine” OVERWHELMING FORCE Was NOT followed so the Surge was nothing more than rectifying this admin (Rummy’s) Fuck Up!
These Rhetorical mind games have not fooled most Americans- Those Who Still Think for themselves.
As for it “Working”- we had no doubt if you gave the Armed Service adequate numbers they would succeed in squelching violence in general. However we are well aware that Militant attakcs would continue. Waht th e’Surge ’ did Accomplish is putting our kids between multiple sides of a Civil War, while draining the OUR Bank! I prefer to call ‘McCains’ Surge’ ..‘The Great Purge’ 10 Billion a month to rebuild a country we had NO Right to invade to begin with (Mac’s falsifying evidence in regards to Anthrax), Who can’t reconcil their own differences and destroy anything that is rebuilt at our expense.
Petreaus has done nothing but split hairs for this administratins debackle- ‘progess tenttive and Fragile’..Means we have NOT Suceeded! Now he’ll take his Puppet show on the road to Afghanistan too. More hair splitting and LYING!
and who did this New Bozo blow to get the Iraq assignment. Apparently some of the Commanders could not lower themselves or dishonor Military serivce by LYING for this Admin, Petreaus seems to lack that personal conviction and Sense of Integrity. Seems that is the New Way of being a ‘Patriot’. McCain has proven, regardless of Military training the phrase ‘Country First’ is nothing more than a Slogan, not a conviction.
Although I found the reaction to Returning Vietnam vets a disgrace, I’m beginning to see such figures as McCain and Petreaus as good Reasons to question Military Allegiences. Which Country have you been Referring to Mac…The one your Corp Buddies are Building on our Dime? Lest We forget Benedict Arnold Was also a ‘Military Man’.

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By cyrena, September 18, 2008 at 10:43 pm Link to this comment

I agree with Jobart…


•  “…Putting career before country is not patriotic, it’s treason. Not treason that is punishable, but actions taken that are self serving and against the country’s best interests should be seen as such..”

That’s just the way it is.

Now of course if the good general HAD the balls, he would never have been left in the position, or put in it to begin with. (you see what happened to Fallon, among others). So, it is career before country, and our troops, and civilians in Iraq, have continued to die and be maimed, and to lose their minds, and to be left homeless and starving in the months when Petraeus was credited with ‘decreasing violence’.

Now of course every time I read that ‘decreased violence’ I just get pissed off all over again. Decreased from WHAT? Same thing with the complaints that we are refereeing a civil war. What? The civil war the Dick Bush initiated? THAT civil war? And how did that happen anyway? By building walls around the neighborhoods, and turning them all into little Gaza’s?

Let’s get real here. Petraeus did what Cheney told him to do. He made it possible (for the first time in over 35 years) for the OIL ROBBER barons to gain access to Iraq’s OIL, and that’s that. That’s why the ‘surge’ was done…because the ‘insurgents’ weren’t letting the troops or the contractors get to the oil. Paying off the ‘insurgents’ and walling the rest of them in, made it possible to get to the oil. So, let’s just call it what it is.

No doubt Cheney et al will eventually explain it all. I mean, what else could they do? If those damn ‘insurgents’ hadn’t tried to keep him away from the oil, he wouldn’t have had to kill over a million of them, and displace another 4 plus million. It’s all their fault. They should have just handed over the oil when Cheney et al first demanded it over 6 years ago. If they had done it then, they would by now be assigned as slaves to their respective oil plantations, and order would be restored.

http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/2005/crudedesigns.htm

http://priceofoil.org/thepriceofoil/war-terror/iraqi-oil-law/

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By samosamo, September 18, 2008 at 9:19 pm Link to this comment

A good measure of petraeus will be where he goes from here. If he winds up on several weapon’s industries boards or just one of them, then he is just another opportunist unworthy of the position he held in our military.
For me it also includes his non-action in doing what he could to with draw our troops out of Iraq.

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By Tony Wicher, September 18, 2008 at 8:16 pm Link to this comment

Of course the Iranians are the big winners and of course the Iraq war was and is a complete disaster from every conceivable point of view. The most that can be said is that Petraeus’ counterinsurgency strategy, which had both military and political components helped to bring down the level of violence and casualties caused by a disasterous policy.

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By yellowbird2525, September 18, 2008 at 8:00 pm Link to this comment

Big B, wish that I could agree with thee but alas & alack! ENSLAVEMENT to the giant Corps & stealing it all at the top just like it’s done in USA for years is what it is all about; am sure the chemical companies have already started their diabolically evil deeds of poisoning every single thing there; and soon this nation will be #2 in babies deaths every single year with USA leading yet again & it is NOT due to “poor” prenatal care folks; they are there for more slaves: poisoining folks to their graves: all for their own pocketbooks; just like in the USA; all the world sees us enslaved;***Saw a commercial today: people in Iceland live better & live longer: of course they do; almost in every single country this is true: Germany for years has had cancer treatments even Ronald Reagan got treated there & lived 17 more years: denied in USA cuz the $ for their pocketbooks folks; lots of business with round robins & all for their own benefit & none for the people or the land;

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By Big B, September 18, 2008 at 4:56 pm Link to this comment

Ah, gen. betrayus, we hardly knew ye!

Lets all keep in mind the master plan of the last 15 months or so, we PAID the enemy not to fight with us!

And that piece of genius will continue to work, at least until the checks start to bounce.

We are there for the duration kids, I mean the duration of the oil. Once it’s gone so will we be.
looking back without regret, at the first nation we raped for it’s natural resources. But worry not, for we will be working on raping country number three or four by then, regardless of who wins the white house.

WE ARE IN IRAQ FOR ONE REASON, PETROLEUM, PLAIN AND SIMPLE. We are hoplessly addicted, and we still show no signs of starting our 12 steps away from oil(despite what Al gore thinks) We are americans, our obstenance is a large part of what made us great. Now it will be the prime ingredient in our downfall.
It was a hell of a ride! Lets just hope we are magnanamous enough not to take the rest of the world with us.

But hey, we are after all, americans.

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By jobart, September 18, 2008 at 2:53 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

By Tony Wicher, September 18 at 9:01 am #

My impression of Petraeus is that he is a competent general who did the best job he could under the most difficult political circumstances. There is only so much that can be done militarily. His counterinsurgency strategy appears to have been as sound as one could hope for under the circumstances. He is certainly no more to be blamed for the Iraq war itself than “the troops”, and it would be just as stupid to do so.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I have to disagree with your evaluation of the “good” general.  A “good” soldier possesses an adherence to the oath that all military personnel are required/expected to recite when they enter into that occupation. In other words, the rules/expectations/reasons and their place in that world. ” What’s okay and what’s not”. “The why we do what we do”. Orders, lawful & unlawful(myself hoping, but not depending upon,those differences being effectively clarified). 
Soldiers need to rely on each other in order to survive,(i.e. “you watch my back and I’ll watch yours”), especially in time of war.  Rank doesn’t/shouldn’t “indemnify” any military personnel from a “soldier’s ”oath” and the actions and/or responsibilities that he/she is expected to provide under that “oath”.
Petraeus should have understood, and “followed” his superiors/peers into the resistance to the “insane” policies and their “lead” into the actions taken. Putting career before country is not patriotic, it’s treason. Not treason that is punishable, but actions taken that are self serving and against the country’s best interests should be seen as such.  If every, (purportedly) “patriotic” and “anything for my country”, upper echelon military personnel would “just have stuck together and, in solidarity” resisted (don’t forget the {oath})…..Things might have been different.

Maybe this country, the one that we call “the beacon of Democracy” would have been better served, had they (guys like Patraeus) all had the “balls and conscience” to do what was right for America. But, as is the main truth about time, the past is just that, past. 

The “General Betray-us” article(s)/outrage (please,spare me the drama) spoke to an attitude that existed then, and has become increasingly urgent, since.  His betrayal wasn’t as much his “kiss ass” of the Scrub & Darth/THEM , as much as his “disservice” to his fellow servicemen&women;who, not only faithfully adhere to the oath they took, but truly believe in it. And, here’s the kicker…. and risk/lose their lives to defend it and for what it(at least used to)represent.

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By P. T., September 18, 2008 at 10:05 am Link to this comment

After all that, the neo-cons wind up with an Iraqi Shia government that is allied with Iran.

As for the millions of refugees, they practically don’t exist so far as the U.S. mainstream media is concerned.

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By Tony Wicher, September 18, 2008 at 9:01 am Link to this comment

My impression of Petraeus is that he is a competent general who did the best job he could under the most difficult political circumstances. There is only so much that can be done militarily. His counterinsurgency strategy appears to have been as sound as one could hope for under the circumstances. He is certainly no more to be blamed for the Iraq war itself than “the troops”, and it would be just as stupid to do so.

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By G.Anderson, September 18, 2008 at 9:01 am Link to this comment

After a pause, hostilities will resume. In effect they have won, because of Bush’s bankrupting this nation.

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By skulz fontaine, September 18, 2008 at 7:55 am Link to this comment

Tell the truth nigga-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tD5WlQ54Sg0
some radically hot stuff here boy.

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By Fahrenheit 451, September 18, 2008 at 6:12 am Link to this comment

Farewell, General—but Did You Bring Iraq Hope?

So, who cares?  The premise of the question is bullshit!

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By Paolo, September 18, 2008 at 4:56 am Link to this comment

Cockburn points out that Iran is the likely “winner” in Iraq, without having to fire a single shot. This fact should be no cause for alarm to the USA, which has no business picking sides in these conflicts, anyway. There is certainly nothing wrong with Iran, a country with a huge Shi’ite majority, being friendly with Iraq, a nation with a slight Shi’ite majority.

Iran, remember, has not attacked another country in several centuries. It was Iraq under Saddam that started the disastrous 1980’s Iran-Iraq conflict, goaded on and armed by the USA, which also(let us not forget) supplied the raw materials for Saddam to make chemical WMD’s.

The best strategy now is for the US to withdraw all troops from the Middle East, let the countries involved solve their disputes in their own way, and focus on fixing up our own country (which, by the way, is facing an economic meltdown).

Or, we could stay in the Middle East, continuing to spend billions of dollars we don’t have, plunge the value of the dollar to near zero, and become a third world country ourselves.

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By TheRealFish, September 18, 2008 at 2:10 am Link to this comment

While I agree the big beneficiaries of all our time wasted in Iraq are the Iranians, and while this article appears generally accurate, I notice a fair slip in its “truthiness” right in the middle. Mr. Cockburn writes:

“During the period in which General Petraeus was in command in Iraq, the Sunni Arab insurgency, responsible for inflicting losses of 4,150 dead and 30,000 wounded on the US army, largely ended its uprising against the US occupation.”

This completely ignores all the death and mayhem caused by Al Sadr and his Sadr Brigade/Mahdi Army—an all Shi’a group of insurgents—and the fact that the Surge would likely have had far less real impact had Al Sadr not voluntarily called a halt to the killing by his faction. I admit that most of his energies focused on ethnic cleansing against the Sunnis, but I recall many, many reports of rocket attacks and road-side bombs attributed to this group (aside from the out-and-out direct fighting in Basra and elsewhere).

Petraeus should certainly feel the future is “fragile” but a little less proud about this supposedly “huge success” of that surge, especially since the main stated reason for Sadr’s truce hinged upon the US setting a defined timetable for withdrawal.

Even though splintering of this group is also reported, it still does not alter the apparent fact that all members of the Mahdi Army voluntarily followed his statement of truce—hinging upon a clear plan for the US to leave Iraq.

This, all things considered, still agrees with Cockburn’s idea that the Iranians are the big winners and, unless the US withdraws, the future is fragile and that some version of the Shiite Mahdi Army would rise again.

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