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Obama’s Secret WeaponPosted on Sep 16, 2008
While it’s fashionable for the media and some of his own supporters to be mourning the demise of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign, they may well be overlooking an important point—that the vaunted McCain-Palin ticket has peaked. What else but such blind optimism could be motivating the unflagging energy of thousands of Obama grass-roots workers? These optimists are making phone calls, walking door to door and recording voter information in a huge database. Some are even moving in with hospitable strangers and sleeping on couches so they can work in states far from home. “The media doesn’t really know what’s going on with the grass-roots campaign,” Obama campaign worker Keith Martin told a dozen supporters in a pleasant and large Los Angeles yard last weekend as he prepared them to make telephone calls to Nevada. They nodded enthusiastically. By the end of the afternoon, their number had grown to 20. Similar events were being held across the country. Whether these folks are hardheaded pols or softheaded and delusional will be determined by Election Day, Nov. 4. But a strong argument can be made that they—and the strategists who designed the grass-roots operation—are well prepared for a dash to victory over John McCain and Sarah Palin at the end of the campaign. The timing is right for them. As they made their calls, powerful economic forces beyond their control—and that of McCain and Obama—were influencing the campaign. Wall Street giant Lehman Brothers headed into bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch was being purchased by Bank of America. The collapse of these famous and venerable firms was followed Monday morning by a report from the Federal Reserve that the nation’s industrial output dropped 1.1 percent in August, most of it in manufacturing and much in motor vehicle production. Economic troubles reached from Wall Street deep into neighborhoods around the country, already hit hard by foreclosures, dropping home prices and new difficulties in obtaining credit. This will change the presidential campaign. Economic turmoil is bound to overshadow the so-called cultural wars that McCain and Palin have tried to ignite. The debate should shift to Obama’s ground. The Obama campaign is prepared for the shift. Its grass-roots effort is targeted at tossup states, including several suffering from the bad economy. The drive, along with a successful voter registration drive in key states, has produced a potentially large turnout of Obama voters—one so big that it throws off the turnout estimates pollsters use for their surveys of likely voters. This would mean the polls have understated the Obama vote. The Web site Pollster.Com, which compiles a number of surveys, said the race is about even. Obama is now leading in states with a total of 238 electoral votes and McCain in those with a total of 224. States with 76 electoral votes are rated tossups. A total of 270 electoral votes is needed to win. To best follow the election, watch the numbers in the tossup states rather than those for the nation as a whole. These are the Web site’s tossup states, with the number of their electoral votes and each candidate’s polling score by percentage: Nevada 5, McCain 47, Obama 44.7; Colorado 9, Obama 46.9, McCain 46.5; New Mexico 5, Obama 47.3, McCain 43.4; Montana 3, McCain 49, Obama 46; Michigan 17, Obama 47, McCain 44.3; Ohio 20, McCain 46, Obama 45.9; Virginia 13, McCain 48, Obama 45.9; New Hampshire 4, McCain 47, Obama 45.3. My Saturday afternoon visit to the Los Angeles home, in an affluent neighborhood several miles south of the UCLA campus, showed the well-organized nature of the Obama grass-roots operation. Organizer Martin explained that the volunteers were all calling Nevada, where President George W. Bush beat Sen. John Kerry in 2004. Kerry beat Bush in the strongly Democratic Las Vegas area, but Obama will have to increase the margin, plus improve on Kerry’s showing in the slightly Republican Reno area, to win Nevada’s four electoral votes, which could tip a tight national election. The economy will undoubtedly shape the result. Foreclosures have hit Las Vegas-area subdivisions hard, and casino business is down. The callers talk about the economy as they phone from lists from the campaign database, which contains information on each voter ranging from sex, age and party affiliation to whether a person sleeps days—important for Las Vegas casino night workers. Using a script from the campaign, the volunteers asked those answering the phone if they supported Obama or leaned his way or if they were for McCain or someone else. Answers were entered in the VoteBuilder database. Follow-up calls are made to undecideds or leaners, along with personal visits from precinct walkers, increasing in frequency as Election Day approaches. This is happening in each of the target states. It is the culmination of an effort that began at the start of the Obama campaign. It’s labor-intensive, requiring many thousands of well-organized volunteers. It’s expensive.
But the economy is in trouble, and if Obama can deliver a message strong and clear enough to match the efforts of his grass-roots workers, it could well work.
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A Progressive Journal of News and Opinion. Editor, Robert Scheer. Publisher, Zuade Kaufman.
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By cyrena, September 18 at 5:01 pm #
Obama’s introductory plan for the economy…
My read tells me that this is a first start emergency sort of a fix. Kind of like when the doc orders a couple of whammy antibiotic shots at first contact, and then tapers off to a daily dose until the infection is controlled.
Anyway, it’s something....
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/economyvideo
http://my.barackobama.com/page/s/economyplan
Report thisBy mrmb, September 18 at 1:47 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)
All I can say is that I cant wait for the republican trash to be thrown out of office, wholesale.
Thats not to say that there are no democratic trash, and there are plenty of them, but its a good start.
Report thisBy cyrena, September 17 at 8:21 pm #
Re: Tony Wincher
ITW,
My mon and dad voted for Humphrey too. But not me. I was a 22-year-old young hothead. I wrote in Eldridge Cleaver. Can you imagine?
~~~~~~~~~
I can imagine. I would have written in Eldridge Cleaver too if I’d been old enough to vote.
~~~~
Big B
On this:
• “But my skeptesism about the kids comes from the first hand knowledge of dropping my son off at school and seeing the only kids that were standing outside were the smokers. The campus looks like a ghost town after four o’clock. Hopefully they will be able to rally the troops to vote. This is about them primarily!”
~~~~~
Humm, I dunno where this might be, though you’ve gotta admit that if they were standing outside smoking, it would be because they can’t smoke inside or in class. (we could still smoke in class back in my original education era. Anyway, there’s something to be said for the fact that they were even THERE. (yep, that’s how bad things have become in terms of our educational system…too many Americans don’t even finish the basics).
As for this being primarily about the troops, I only wish it were so. The bottom line is that there is SUCH a small majority of the population doing the fighting and dying in the military. The SAME troops over and over again. THAT so-called ‘sacrifice’ is being made by such a small minority, that they are off the radar of the majority population, with the exception of those states and demographic areas that have given more of their own citizens than most of the others combined. So, that would depend on where you are. That said, the vote of the troops alone will not be enough. HOWEVER, their votes ARE important, and most of them now understand (at least the ones that I’ve been working with for the past 3 years) that Obama is the ONLY one who seems to give much of a damn about them at all. Only NOW, are some of them finally beginning to get at least a smidgeon of the care that they’ve been denied since they were first sent off to steal oil. And, he was the initiator of that.
It’s true though that this election IS primarily about our youth, because we *need* them as much as they deserve their birthright. But we need to be able to feed them, and house them and educate them, and provide health care for them. If we can’t educate them to take part in rebuilding the decayed infrastructure and a system that is sustainable, then there seems little point.
Anyway, like I said, here in my own community, and many of the others that I’ve had to privilege to visit and speak to, the students are very much involved in the political disaster that we are living. They know the deal. They might look a bit odd to us middle-agers and seniors, but believe me they are smarter than they look. They might play games on the computers, and I know what you’re talking about there. My sister got clued in a decade or so ago, when her kids were allegedly ‘doing their homework’. She was like, yeah, you guys sit in here on the computer like you’re actually studying, and all you’re doing is the same thing I used to do, (talking to my friends on the phone) except that you’re doing it electronically.
They do it in class as well with their wireless units. The professor will ask one a question, and somebody else in the class will instant message them the answer. Goes with the territory I suppose. I don’t particularly mind, since I figure as long as they’re showing up, they’re bound to learn something.
Report thisBy Freelance Minion, September 17 at 2:12 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)
I am encouraged that some people see things this way, that the tied poll results are actually McCains peak, but my nervousness won’t go away until late January. I hope i start seeing a more agressive campaign soon (not desperate, just aggressive) that takes no voter for granted.
Report thisBy Leefeller, September 17 at 6:58 am #
Tony Witcher,
Find your comment amusing “people who can’t tell the difference between one capitalist and another.” very interesting, people who can’t tell the difference between one ________ and another.
Since I agree with you this time, it makes me a hypocrite on the other one?
Report thisBy Tony Wicher, September 17 at 6:52 am #
By Inherit The Wind, September 16 at 7:23 pm #
I couldn’t have said it better myself! I, too, would have been one of those idiots, had I been old enough to vote. But I was only 13 then. Still, my father and mother held their noses and votes for Humphrey, without any enthusiasm, because we were all for Eugene McCarthy.
----------------------------------------------------
ITW,
My mon and dad voted for Humphrey too. But not me. I was a 22-year-old young hothead. I wrote in Eldridge Cleaver. Can you imagine?
Report thisBy Tony Wicher, September 17 at 6:45 am #
By Alan, September 16 at 9:37 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)
Obama: I am major marginally better than McGoo.
Trust me, you know you can’t trust him.
You’re an American voter, right? So you are
just as used to the double whammy as you
are to the double big-mac. It is not true
that John McGoo and I were seen together last night leaving Rupert Murdoch’s penthouse together. Not true. We have never had relations
with that fascist media moghul!
----------------------------------------------------
Alan,
If this were 1932, you would have been one of the ones saying there’s no difference between Roosevelt and Hoover because they were both supported by capitalists. There were idiots just like you back then, people who can’t tell the difference between one capitalist and another. This year Obama is supported by most of the “ruling class”, except for oil companies and “defense” contractors, because they don’t like to see the economy going into the shitter any more than the rest of us. They know that
Report thisderegulation has been a disaster even more than we do. They know this war has been a disaster as much as we do. That’s why Obama is going to win this year as the Democrats did in 1932. Republicans, who represent oil companies ("drill baby drill") and defense contractors ("victory in Iraq"), are relying on people like you to muddy the issue. It’s their only hope. I’m here to stop you.
By Big B, September 17 at 3:29 am #
I pray you’re right, cyrena, about the youth vote this year. But my skeptesism about the kids comes from the first hand knowledge of dropping my son off at school and seeing the only kids that were standing outside were the smokers. The campus looks like a ghost town after four o’clock. Hopefully they will be able to rally the troops to vote.
Report thisThis is about them primarily!
(i think the worst social experiment ever was when college campuses wired every room for internet access. The kids just sit there “talking” to their friends on the net, writing to blogs, and ordering pizza..... kind of like us on TD.....never mind)
By Alan, September 16 at 9:37 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)
Obama: I am major marginally better than McGoo.
Report thisTrust me, you know you can’t trust him.
You’re an American voter, right? So you are
just as used to the double whammy as you
are to the double big-mac. It is not true
that John McGoo and I were seen together last night leaving Rupert Murdoch’s penthouse together. Not true. We have never had relations
with that fascist media moghul!
By BobZ, September 16 at 7:49 pm #
Tony,
The book “Nixonland” captures 1968 perfectly, much better than
Report thisBy cyrena, September 16 at 7:38 pm #
Big B writes:
“..Generation after generation has alienated the youth vote, making them largley an impotent force on election day.”
Actually Big B, this isn’t entirely true, at least not in all demographics. I live in a university community, with several colleges/universities. In the past, it has often been difficult to get the students to vote, and that’s been when we’ve actually BROUGHT the precinct TO them...literally. (like setting up voting booths in the dorms, and other ‘club’ houses, or the University Centers. I mean, in some cases, I’ve worked precincts where they don’t even have to change out of their jammies. They can just sort of roll out of bed and into the voting booth. In previous elections, that hasn’t seemed to matter. They still didn’t show up. So, it sort of ‘smarts’ to hear that we’ve allegedly alienated them. That isn’t the case, and the youth in my own family have been registered to vote, (and have) since they came of age. (my 16 year old niece is really miffed that she can’t vote yet, but she still volunteers - knows ALL of the issues).
That said though, there is a huge difference this year in the turnout and registration. We saw it in the primaries...the largest turnout (at least for my country) since 1972. And yep, it’s been primarily because of the youth vote. So, the youth ARE out there, and they have been since Obama began the grassroots organization over two years ago. They KNOW the stakes are high, and they KNOW that their own futures and birthrights depend on it.
Now I don’t know how easy it is for all citizens (in school or not) to vote absentee. In my state, anyone can vote absentee. (it’s also called ‘vote by mail’) and it would seem like a good idea to have that everywhere. It is particularly the case now, because of so many foreclosures that have left citizens without permanent physical addresses. BUT, even that can be resolved. I’ve been doing a lot of work lately with homeless communities, just so that they CAN vote.
Meantime, Vietnam Vet is on the money in pointing out that most of these people are simply not polled, either because they only have cell phones, (even I only have a cell phone now) and some (especially the homeless) don’t even have that. So, they don’t show up in the polls. We’re here to make sure they show up at the voting precincts though.
So, sign up at your local Obama Campaign headquarters. You’ll get to meet all of your neighbors, (whether you want to or not).
Report thisBy BobZ, September 16 at 7:24 pm #
The article accurately describes the grassroots support that Obama enjoys, and it’s not just from college students, but from people from all walks of life. They all have one goal - to take back their country from the neoconservatives who have despoiled America in the name of their corrupt ideology. They view John McCain and Sarah Palin as the inheritors of the Bush legacy, who will put ideology over country. Personally I have never seen so many people so willingly give up their free time to help Barack Obama get elected. This truly is democracy in action and America at its best. And this group is made of of volunteers who formerly backed Hillary Clinton, and the other candidates but are now solidly behind Obama. What is even more encouraging is seeing volunteers take on tasks that take them out of their comfort zone - it’s not easy for many of them to make cold calls into Nevada and talk to strangers on the phone. But they do it willingly. I could not be more proud of these volunteers.
Report thisBy Inherit The Wind, September 16 at 7:23 pm #
Tony Wicher, September 16 at 7:08 pm #
Tom,
You know why we lost? Because the Democratic Party split in 1968. Because idiots like a lot of the people posting here would not back Hubert Humphrey in 1968 - a stauch liberal - solely because as Johnson’s VP he did not come out against the Vietnam War. And I was one of those idiots. What did I get for my idiocy? Right, Nixon. And Reagan and Bush and Bush. Well, I have repented at leisure, but there are many here who either do not remember or learned nothing, I am here to stop these people from inflicting this fate on us again if it is the last thing I do before I die.
****************************************
Tony,
I couldn’t have said it better myself! I, too, would have been one of those idiots, had I been old enough to vote. But I was only 13 then. Still, my father and mother held their noses and votes for Humphrey, without any enthusiasm, because we were all for Eugene McCarthy. And for Julian Bond for VP (remember that on the convention floor?), despite him being only 28 and ineligible.
I’ve said this again and again about die-hard Nader and Kucinich voters, and now, Clinton voters: The difference between Obama and his Democratic opponents is TRIVIAL compared to the McCain/Palin ticket. It’s nothing, small potatoes, nada, rien, gornischt.
You have to look at policies and THEN you see the difference!
And then look at the openings coming on the Supreme Court--AND VOTE FOR OBAMA/BIDEN!!!!!!!!!!
Report thisBy bachu, September 16 at 7:16 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)
Since the race is even I just pray to god that it remains so till election day and have the supreme court decide once again who the next president will be. If there is fairness and justice in this world the court should rule in favor of Obama.
Report thisBy Tony Wicher, September 16 at 7:11 pm #
Tom,
Yes, the voting machines. If I were Obama, I would reserve a huge amount of my campaign funds to assemble the most tech-savvy team of poll watchers money can buy. The Republicans will certainly steal it if they can.
Report thisBy Tony Wicher, September 16 at 7:08 pm #
By Tom N., September 16 at 5:08 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)
We had ‘blind optimism’ in 1968 and what did that get us? More Nixon. Important fact: back then the voting machines weren’t nearly as compromised as they are now, and we still lost.
-----------------------------------------------------
Tom,
You know why we lost? Because the Democratic Party split in 1968. Because idiots like a lot of the people posting here would not back Hubert Humphrey in 1968 - a stauch liberal - solely because as Johnson’s VP he did not come out against the Vietnam War. And I was one of those idiots. What did I get for my idiocy? Right, Nixon. And Reagan and Bush and Bush. Well, I have repented at leisure, but there are many here who either do not remember or learned nothing, I am here to stop these people from inflicting this fate on us again if it is the last thing I do before I die.
Report thisBy Shana Bellin, September 16 at 6:48 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)
My vote is for Obama - Biden. At my age I am living proof that history repeats itself. The thought of having another UN “compassionate conservative” government is abhorrant to me. Have we not had enough? Mc Cain has sold his soul to special intersts (as did Nixon) and if Palin really cared about people she would acknowledge that her ambition far overrides her ability and would in humility go back to governing a State that is the most removed from the problems facing the majorities of Americas.
Report thisBy Callum Buck, September 16 at 6:16 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)
VietnamVet - nice fantasy. You are about to become a two-time loser, dude!
Report thisBy Tom N., September 16 at 5:08 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)
We had ‘blind optimism’ in 1968 and what did that get us? More Nixon. Important fact: back then the voting machines weren’t nearly as compromised as they are now, and we still lost.
Report thisBy Maezeppa, September 16 at 3:18 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)
Gosh, it would be just great if Obama’s unflagging grassroots had the passion of Howard Dean’s supporters.
Report thisBy Inherit The Wind, September 16 at 1:14 pm #
If you look at the daily overnights on Gallup you’ll see some interesting trends.
1) At the peak of his “bounce” Obama had a 50%-42% lead--8 points.
2) At the peak of his “bounce” McCain had a 49%-44% lead, 5 points.
3) Since his peak, McCain has moved steadily downward, with no move back up--49, 48, now 47%
4) In that same time, Obama has moved steadily up--44, 45, now 46%.
5) Sampling error is about 3%. That means that the selected sample is so small that it can vary by 3% and still represent the population. Therefore it’s now, again a dead heat.
6) The trend since McCain’s “bounce” has been steady and consistent--McCain down, down, down, Obama, up, up, up. If Obama’s track crosses McCain’s again, going up, it will be VERY hard for McCain to recover as long as Obama doesn’t step on his .........
Bonus afternote: Southern Dems are saying that in the South, Black candidates are always about 4% below their poll figures. They are saying Obama’s not listening to them and therefore may well lose states he should win. They are saying THEY know how to beat Republicans, in their own states when faced with their (GOPers’) racism. Obama needs to listen to these folks. It’s too important for pride and ego.
Report thisBy Leefeller, September 16 at 12:47 pm #
Vietnam Vet,
Heard the Republicans are using a voter suppression plan in an attempt to make sure people who had home foreclosure are not allowed to vote in Michigan. Wonder if these people are polled?
Report thisBy eileen fleming, September 16 at 11:39 am #
[Lady Lake, Fl. September 14, 2008] Last Sunday morning the Bourbon Street Restaurant at The Villages [the fastest growing micropolitan area in the United States according to a 2008 Census Bureau report] ran out of seating for all the mamas for Obama and a few men who turned out to hear Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney and Deidre Hall, best known for her role as Dr. Marlena Evans on the daytime soap, Days of our Lives speak to the local Women for Obama organization.
Deidre will turn 61 next month but looks two decades younger. She graciously sat down with me for a few minutes before she spoke at the gathering of Women for Obama and joked, “In 2000 I campaigned for Gore. In 2004 I worked for Kerry. My 13 year old son commented that if I really want Obama maybe I shouldn’t campaign!
“I really do want Obama because I have two sons and I want a better world for them and what we don’t fix they will inherit. So much is broken in our country we must start repairing it and people are not yet clear on what Obama is offering and he is on the side of families, women and children. He has impressed me with his integrity because he walks the talk and he is the man to fix what is broken.
“I want to encourage every Days of our Lives fan, and every American to not just vote, which is the least one can do, but to volunteer, talk to neighbors, friends, families about where Obama stands. It is time to stand up and be counted!”
From the stage, Deidre Hall informed the crowd, “I am here because I am inspired, moved and scared. I have two children...The other day in L.A. I was in the car near to the Veterans cemetery and we were stuck in traffic. I got out to see a small line of cars turning into the cemetery for a funeral and I cried. I do cry for a living but I really cried because we are so insulated we do not see dead soldiers and we have not gotten angry enough to say enough!
“How many of you here are doing something? How many of you are already volunteering?”
Approximately a third of the room raised their hands. Deidre nodded and continued, “All of you sit down and to all of you still standing, raise your hand and repeat after me: I know it’s right, I know it’s fair, I know in my heart we can change the world with my help. I will spend the next 50 days making my voice heard.”
I hope they all do and “HOPE has two children. The first is ANGER at the way things are. The second is COURAGE to DO SOMETHING about it."-St. Augustine
Eileen Fleming, Reporter and Editor WAWA:
Report thishttp://www.wearewideawake.org/
Author “Keep Hope Alive” and “Memoirs of a Nice Irish American ‘Girl’s’ Life in Occupied Territory”
Producer “30 Minutes With Vanunu” and “13 Minutes with Vanunu”
By Big B, September 16 at 11:31 am #
The dimmos would have been smart to try and make it easier for college kids to cast absentee ballots, since they are the youth block of legal voting age, and are at school in early November. The other trouble with the youth vote is keeping their attention until November. Especially this year, when the campaign started in 1999.
Report thisGeneration after generation has alienated the youth vote, making them largley an impotent force on election day.
If this year is different, Barry will win. If not, well, Armageddon can’t be all that bad, can it?
By VietnamVet, September 16 at 11:00 am #
The problem with all these polls showing McCain as ahead or tied with Obama, is seriously faulted! Thousands, if not millions, of first time, young voters are not even polled. They gave up home phones long ago and the polls only call home phones, they do not have access to moviles.
Report this