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Life After PennPosted on Apr 8, 2008By E.J. Dionne WASHINGTON—The most striking critiques of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign have come not from her opponents or her enemies but from her most loyal friends. Since December, I have been hearing a steady stream of worries from Clinton partisans who took Barack Obama’s challenge seriously from the start. These loyalists felt her campaign was misreading the nature of the political year, the state of the Democratic Party, the organizational requirements of a long struggle for the nomination, and the complexity of the party’s attitudes toward both the candidate herself and former President Clinton. The immediate cause of Mark Penn’s departure as Hillary Clinton’s chief strategist was his private work on behalf of a Colombian free-trade agreement that Clinton opposes. But the fact that Penn could not hold on to his privileged position is a reflection of problems that plagued the Clinton campaign even before it lost the Iowa caucuses in early January. The failure in Iowa, which allowed Obama’s candidacy to take off, was Clinton’s original strategic sin. Clinton’s advisers were ambivalent about competing in the state. They worried that her vote to authorize the war in Iraq would make it hard for her to win in a place whose caucus-going Democrats are, on the whole, staunchly anti-war. According to a leaked internal memo, Clinton advisers actually considered skipping Iowa altogether. Instead, her lieutenants were sluggish in organizing the state and then, realizing the dangers of losing it to Obama, poured in resources—thus depleting her coffers for the later fights to come. Her campaign seemed to have only two speeds: overconfidence and panic. Clinton’s surprise comeback in New Hampshire looks ironic in retrospect. Many attributed the victory to an emotional and revelatory moment in which Clinton choked up at a campaign event and declared: “This is very personal for me; it’s not just political.” Defying the false assumption that she was an unfeeling political automaton was one crucial element to Clinton’s victory. Her win may have saved Penn’s job at the time. Yet, according to his critics inside the campaign, it was Penn who had resisted counsel that Clinton needed to show her human side. Penn may also be the one and only political consultant who hurt himself by publishing a successful book in the course of a political campaign. His “Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes,” published in the fall of 2007, still ranks high in Amazon.com’s category lists for “demography,” “advertising,” and “systems and planning.” But the book—co-written by E. Kinney Zalesne—underscored Penn’s skepticism of large and overarching themes. “Grandiose” is one of Penn’s preferred epithets, and he believes passionately in accumulating small subgroups in the electorate into a majority. His book described more than 70 trend groups with pithy names such as “Modern Mary Poppinses,” “Social Geeks,” “Archery Moms,” “Shy Millionaires” and “Numbers Junkies.” One of Penn’s groups, “Impressionable Elites,” proved to be mightily impressed with Barack Obama. When Obama started winning on the basis of a sweeping message of hope, inclusion and national unity, the merits of micro-politics came into question. And Penn committed another sin that, in truth, affected the entire Clinton apparatus: believing that Obama would be trumped by Hillary Clinton’s “inevitability” and that media messaging could overpower organization. This meant that the Clinton campaign was, to be charitable, underorganized. During a visit to Little Rock, Ark., a few days ago, I heard tales of woe from people who truly love Hillary and Bill Clinton but were astonished at her campaign’s internal shortcomings. Obama’s team is well known for its use of new technologies to raise money, engage volunteers and spread his gospel in unorthodox ways. Yet equally important has been Obama’s own old-fashioned version of micro-politics. He built local organizations all over the country, especially in the overlapping groups of smaller states and those holding caucuses. He won most of the small states that voted on Feb. 5, the Super Tuesday primaries that the Clinton camp thought would secure her the nomination, and he swept the states that voted in the weeks immediately after. Much of Obama’s current lead was amassed in that period.
Not all of these problems can be laid at Penn’s feet. But he did come to symbolize a campaign that was much given to infighting and failed to understand the new energies unleashed in the Democratic Party by the reaction against George W. Bush. It did not grasp early enough how much politics has changed since the Clinton ’90s. The post-Penn Clinton campaign has only a little time and a narrow window to make up for these mistakes.
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By Tom Doff, April 10 at 8:19 am #
(Unregistered commenter)
Were Hillary to become president, and manage the nation as she has managed her campaign, we would be most likely to have a Bush-redux administration in pantie-hose, god save us.
Report thisBy Leefeller, April 10 at 5:22 am #
I do not see many of the Hillary supporters here protecting their man Penn? Is it possible they did not like what he had to offer? If Hillary chooses people like Penn, this does not look very good for the experienced candidate. What would we expect in to see in the Hillary Whitehouse?
Integrity of Obama shows in how he handled the Wright problem, how he supported his friend of 20 years, his speech after the controversy was exceptional.
Did Hillary give a speech after moving Penn to the closet, somehow I missed it?
Report thisBy jackpine savage, April 10 at 3:12 am #
As pointed out by another poster, Penn isn’t gone...not even close. It should also be pointed out that he isn’t the only staffer on the campaign to have close ties to the Colombian Free Trade deal. Wolfsen, Ickes, and others are knee deep in it too.
Clinton is merely campaigning to the base; she can’t throw them under the bus until she wins. Besides, Penn makes a good scapegoat for her inability to beat a no-name, dark-skinned, supposedly Muslim, American hating, first-term Senator. It couldn’t, after all, be her fault, now could it?
Report thisBy Leefeller, April 9 at 4:20 pm #
Ej, used the change word, forsaking the political fornicators. Oh, woe is them!
Report thisBy Leefeller, April 9 at 4:14 pm #
Integrity, something not need to be president, look at the last eight years.
Report thisBy sheila, April 9 at 10:57 am #
(Unregistered commenter)
Thank you for your comment. It seems so obvious to me what you say is true but very few people say it. Or say it as well as you.
Report thisBy Thomas Billis, April 9 at 10:03 am #
EJ the fact that she is on the wrong side of every issue relevant to democratsa of course had nothing to do with her demise.Go for the esoteric instead of the obvious.The only thing keeping her relevant in democratic primaries was her gender and association with Bill Clinton.The fact that she was a viable contender being on the wrong side of so many issues that are near and dear to democrats is amazing feat.I know to you EJ her positions mean nothing and it is all Machiavellian strategy that wins or loses elections but many democrats actually care about the issues and in good conscience cannot vote for Hillary Clinton.
Report thisBy cyrena, April 9 at 8:15 am #
I would have to say that EJ has called this pretty much smack dab on the mark, in so far as how and why Hillary has lost, at least without the future terrorizing of the superdelegates, which of course continues on. (so anything is possible, but just not probable without some ‘fixing’.)
I also had to laugh out loud at the names of some of the groups that were arranged for the purposes of utilizing the advertising and other major manipulation themes that have always worked so well in the past. Like this…
• “His book described more than 70 trend groups with pithy names such as “Modern Mary Poppinses,” “Social Geeks,” “Archery Moms,” “Shy Millionaires” and “Numbers Junkies.””
Ah…’trend groups’. Now which one of these do we think bert and lib are in. How about Maani. “Archery Moms” for lib maybe? Humm, just a guess. And where do we put Maani? He must be a “Social Geek”. I was gonna fit him in with the “Shy Millionaires” but he’s hardly shy. So, maybe one of this group:
• “One of Penn’s groups, “Impressionable Elites,” proved to be mightily impressed with Barack Obama”…
Yep, I think he might have been one of the “Impressionable Elites” that got all disgruntled when the others defected, so he crossed over into the “Social Geeks” group, and took up the cause…BIG TIME. Now of course we know where to put bert. She’s definitely in the “Number’s Junkies” group. Maani probably gets to those group meetings as well. Talk about spinning numbers from the deepest wells of denial. Yep…bert is a pro with the numbers rhetoric. She’s got Hillary ‘decisively’ winning Super Tuesday, (she didn’t) and she’s still claiming a ‘win’ for her in Texas, (another case of denial) and so it goes. Lib of course is looking for an out, so she’s ready to lay all the blame at Penn’s feet, despite the fact that if Hillary had the sort of judgment that we really need at this point in time, she would have figured that out herself a long time ago, and did a shakeup before things got this bad. But, she couldn’t, because the bottom line is that it’s all about loyalty between the elites/corps/etc.
But, what it REALLY mostly boils down to, (again poor judgment from the git-go) is what EJ sums up here, and some of us have been making this point for months now…
• “Not all of these problems can be laid at Penn’s feet. But he did come to symbolize a campaign that was much given to infighting and failed to understand the new energies unleashed in the Democratic Party by the reaction against George W. Bush. It did not grasp early enough how much politics has changed since the Clinton ’90s.”..
They absolutely failed to understand, (or ignored) the new energies unleashed in not JUST the Democratic Party, but the ENTIRE populace, as a result of 7 years of a fascist Dick Bush regime. As a result, they did NOT grasp the fact that politics has changed drastically since their first reign, and ASSUMED the inevitability of another Clinton reign. That actually IS understandable, because even 8 years ago, things were very different.
Still, at the end of the day, it was the arrogance of assumption, and the fact that they live in a world apart from us ‘little people’ and just ‘didn’t get’ or DIDN’T CARE, how we’ve all been affected by the past 7 plus years, and the fact that in the same amount of time, as a Senator, Hillary hasn’t much challenged the Dick Bush policies that have kept us on this course heading straight for disaster. (if anything, she gone along with the worst of them, more often than not).
That (unfortunately for her) says a lot about how she would be ‘plugged-in’ to the needs of the nation as it is now, which is NOT what it was 15 years ago. In other words, if she wants to be the president, she needs to know the mood of the populace. That she either doesn’t know or care sounds far too much like what we’ve been suffering under for all of this time.
Report thisBy Aegrus, April 9 at 5:12 am #
Bert, please spare me the rhetoric. Saying the MSM is wrong doesn’t add up to much unless you can also show where they are wrong. New Hampshire and Super Tuesday are pretty flimsy evidence to your conclusion. Every candidate is required to say they will stay into the bitter end. John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich made the same claim.
Furthermore, don’t debase my opinions by associating them with the stupidity perpetuated by others. I have never called for Hillary to drop out of the race, and wish her the best. The democratic process will continue, but I have a feeling Hillary will be pulling out early contrary to your bogus “evidence” of previous primary results.
Let everything run its course, but don’t be surprised if I turn out to be correct in my presumption. I’m running about 87-93% prediction accuracy rating this campaign trail. Something Hillary supporters should respect in addition to my fairly objective opinions regarding the two candidates.
Pro-Obama AND Pro-Democracy. What a concept!
Report thisBy Purple Girl, April 9 at 4:11 am #
Come On Now if We have learned nothing about Hillary in the last 6 yrs (amplified by her Campaign) Is she Can Not Be Trusted.
Report thisIf her Mouth is Moving - She’s Lying ( doing her JOB for the Incs and the Cheney Doctrine).
Please She’s giving US rectal cancer with all the smoke she’s blown up Our Assses for the last 15 yrs. I was an avid Hillabilly supporter & Defender- for obviously Too long, but my Eyes are Wide Open Now. Seh’s not only been initiated but Crowned by the ‘Shadow’ Gov’t
By ocjim, April 8 at 8:47 pm #
Penn’s very existence in Hillary’s campaign is an indictment of her integrity and testimony to her hypocrisy.
Report thisBy bert, April 8 at 3:42 pm #
You write: “Hillary will be dropping out soon...”
Don’t bet on it Aegrus. Every step of the way many of Obama’s supporters and the MSM have been wishing and hoping this was true.
It is not. She will stay in until the nominee is chosen.
So many times Obama supporters and MSM stated that Obama would wrap up this nomination.
Lets look at the history here.
First Obama supporters and the MSM predicted Obama would win New Hampshire and become the nominee. Didn’t happen. Hillary won.
Then Obama supporters and the MSM said Obama would win Super Tuesday and would wrap up the nomination that night. Again, didn’t happen. Hillary won Super Tuesday decisively.
Then Obama supporters and the MSM said Obama would be able to wrap things up with TX and OH. Again, Obama did not come through. Hillary won again.
Let’s face it Aegrus, this primary election is a virtual tie.
And furthermore Obama cannot win the nomination without the super delegates either. Neither candidate can win the nomination without super delegates.
Obama supporters keep saying how wonderful a campaigner he is and that he has run a better campaign; Obama supporters keep saying how much more money he has raised; Obama supporters keep saying Clinton has too many negatives.
But you know Aegrus, despite all that Hillary has managed to be within 1% in votes and delegates.
IF Obama has run such a good, positive campaign and has way out spent Hillary WHY HASN’T HE WON THIS RACE YET, AND WHY ISN’T HE THE NOMINEE YET?
OBAMA CAN’T WRAP UP THE DEAL. OBAMA CAN’T HIT IT OUT OF THE BALL PARK.
I would postulate that he hasn’t won the nomination for two reasons. 1. He has not run that great a campaign; and 2. voters haven’t finished deciding yet. They want more time to size up both of these candidates.
So Hillary is not going to drop out until someone has 2025. Let the voters – the will of the people – have the last say. It is rightfully their say.
Report thisBy Hammo, April 8 at 9:53 am #
How will Hillary’s position play out in upcoming primaries such as Pennsylvania?
With the Indiana and Pennsylvania primaries approaching, it might be helpful to look again at the heartland state that lies between the two: Ohio.
Eastern Ohio has very similar demographics to the abutting state of Pennsylvania. Western Ohio, likewise, has much in common with neighbors across the state line in Indiana.
Kentucky and West Virginia, to the south, and Michigan, across Ohio’s northern border, also share many of these elements
The article noted below looks at many demographics, histories and psychologies of this region from the point of view of Ohioans, and provides insight about Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia and Michigan:
“Obama faces Ohio hearts and minds”
AmericanChronicle.com
February 28, 2008
http://americanchronicle.com/articles/53747
Report thisBy Jonas South, April 8 at 9:04 am #
(Unregistered commenter)
Nice piece but besides the point.
The point is, Hillary is washed up because people largely saw through the Clintons. Witness their get rich quick schemes by teaming up with their Canadian partner to sign pipeline deals with narco states and dictators, while jetting free on his private plane on campaign related trips, and sharing a $100 million company, 50-50. Their business, based as it is on Bill´s schmoozing, would be worth so much more if Hillary is President than if she is not. As to the interests of ordinary Americans, just throw us a rhetorical bone and get our vote.
Report thisBy Aegrus, April 8 at 8:23 am #
As I understand it, Penn is no longer the chief strategist; however, he is still active in the campaign. People are asking if this will paint the Clinton Campaign as dysfunctional when it has been so ever since Penn was enlisted. He’s a menace, and no one else in the Clinton Camp other than Hillary and Willy hold him with any esteem. Ridiculousness.
Report thisBy lib in texas, April 8 at 7:59 am #
Aegrus, I agree on one thing that Penn should have been gone long ago. Yes that was a flaw in the Clinton Campaign. He needs to be totally gone and I don’t think he is yet!!!!!
Report thisAgain we agree on something!!!!!
By rbrooks, April 8 at 4:53 am #
(Unregistered commenter)
Penn hasn’t left.
According to the HuffingPost, Penn reassured Burson-Marsteller directors in a conference call yesterday that stated that “the situation has played itself out,” and that
“while his title with the campaign had changed—and his work load would undoubtedly decrease—he still would play a direct advisory role for Clinton.
“I think you’ve heard that I made the decision to step down as chief strategist of the Clinton campaign. Penn Schoen and Berland is going to continue to poll for it and I’ll continue to play a role advising Senator Clinton and former President Clinton as well as the rest of the leadership of the campaign,” he said.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/07/penn-speaks-i n-private-wi_n_95508.html
Report thisBy Aegrus, April 8 at 4:17 am #
I had pointed this out months ago. It doesn’t take a medical degree to diagnose what went wrong with the Clinton campaign this election. She should have wrapped up the nomination before February, but here we are in April with Obama leading. Why? Bad judgment. Anyone who lets Penn do his dirty work is a moron, and the Clintons valued him as a loyalist. It all falls into place.
It’s a shame because Hillary Clinton would be a good president, but she dug herself a six-foot hole with which to be buried when her campaign apparatus wasn’t properly oiled and fine-tuned. She let a big spark plug alone in a hole of much smaller size.
Face it, Hillary will be dropping out soon because there is no way she can completely turn around her campaign to get on message when everything was drenched in Penn up until now. Changing amongst the ranks is never a good sign, especially when that person (whose company does public relations for Blackwater USA) was in charge of pretty much everything up until Clinton’s own approval. No one in Hillary’s top staff appreciated Penn’s work, but he was a “loyalist” and entitled to more attention.
Just lets you realize what kind of bedfellows the Clinton’s keep, and how they don’t realize what diseases they have until they spread it on to a whole lot of other people. Late-game bloomers.
Report thisBy weather, April 8 at 3:17 am #
(Unregistered commenter)
If the person possess’ substance and character you don’t need a Ringling Bros. Barnum & Bailey sad circus of ‘handlers’.
Report thisPenn is part of the charade, in this case its a clinton-based production so long flawed at it’s core,
we should have moved-on to Obama/Ellen Goodman/Kucinich/Edwards/Riech/Carter - based plan and be laying out in real terms just what needs to be done and how a team will lead the country.