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Reports

Talking Points for Obama

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Posted on Mar 6, 2008

By Eugene Robinson

    WASHINGTON—With arithmetic on his side, Barack Obama still should be heavily favored to win the Democratic presidential nomination. But Obama does have a problem: The world-class orator, attacked by opponents for being all talk and no walk, urgently needs to come up with a new speech.

    The Democrats’ system of awarding convention delegates on a proportional basis instead of winner take all means that Hillary Clinton’s net gain in delegates from her victories in Texas and Ohio might not make it into double digits, and in any event won’t be more than 15. If, as expected, Obama wins in Wyoming on Saturday and Mississippi on Tuesday, we’ll be right back where we were before the latest Clinton renaissance.

    There must be Clinton campaign staffers who have sore backs from moving those heavy goal posts so often. Back when Obama was winning 11 primaries and caucuses in a row, the Clinton camp maintained that the whole contest was about delegates, not momentum. But since Tuesday, when Clinton won three out of four states, the delegate count is being dismissed as a mere formality. The way to assess the race, say Clinton’s backers, is to look at momentum.

    But it’s an odd kind of momentum that we’re being asked to appreciate. Apparently, the contests in Wyoming and Mississippi won’t count if Obama wins them, because that’s what everyone expects. The April 22 primary in Pennsylvania will definitely count if Clinton wins, however, even though that’s what everyone expects. To paraphrase Orwell, some states are more equal than others.

    Clinton spokesman Doug Hattaway went so far as to call Pennsylvania “the new Iowa,” suggesting that only then will the campaign really begin. The problem is that people in the old Iowa aren’t likely to forget that they already held their caucuses—or that Obama won. Democrats in other states where Obama was the winner are equally unlikely to be stricken by amnesia. Even if Clinton were to win Pennsylvania, Obama would almost surely go into the convention with more pledged delegates—those chosen in primaries and caucuses—than she had.

    Clinton would then have to rely on the elected officials and party bigwigs who attend the convention as superdelegates to overturn the wishes of Democrats who stood in line to vote in a primary or gave up an evening to attend a caucus. This would give her the most Pyrrhic of victories—a nomination, but with a fractured party behind it.

    These numbers, then, say that Obama will probably be the nominee. But there are other numbers that say he has a problem.

    In Ohio, he was notably weak among white, working-class, non-college-educated voters. According to exit polls, Clinton beat him by only five percentage points among voters whose family income was more than $50,000 a year—but by 12 points among those with a family income of less than $50,000 a year. And while Obama beat Clinton 51-47 percent among voters with a college degree, he lost 58-40 among those who didn’t graduate from college.

    This same pattern was evident in the early primaries that Obama won. It seemed to fade in the Maryland and Virginia contests, and was hardly seen at all in Wisconsin. But its reappearance in Ohio not only buoys the Clinton campaign and ensures a fight to the finish but also suggests a promising line of attack for John McCain, should Obama win the nomination.

    Obama’s ability to inspire optimism and hope has been his most effective campaign tool. For some reason, though, he has been less successful in leading working-class whites to share his vision of a post-partisan America. I don’t think the main reason is race. I think it’s class.

    Obama managed to escape the danger of being pigeonholed as a “black candidate” as opposed to a candidate who happens to be black. Now he has to avoid being pigeonholed as some kind of elitist smarty-pants. Republicans must already be dusting off the playbooks they used against Michael Dukakis and John Kerry.

    Obama will have six long weeks to campaign in Pennsylvania, a state whose demographics are similar to Ohio’s—six weeks to find a way to speak to white, working-class, high-school-educated voters about their anxieties and their aspirations. Winning there, even if it’s not a mathematical requirement, could sew up the nomination and also reassure superdelegates about his ability to hold on to traditional Democratic constituencies in the fall campaign.

    Obama has already demonstrated how much words do matter. Now he needs to find some new ones.   

    Eugene Robinson’s e-mail address is eugenerobinson(at)washpost.com.   

    © 2008, Washington Post Writers Group

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By Blackspeare, March 9, 2008 at 10:47 am #

Be careful, be very careful.  The constant bickering of the Democratic aspirants could be a disaster in the making should Clinton wrest the nomination from Obama.  There will be a black backlash such that it could propel McCain into the presidency.  Should this happen, Clinton will have to persuade Obama to be her running mate or the election will be closer than one would have thought.

To stop the bickering my idea is to offer Obama the VP slot and in exchange Clinton will agree to a one term presidency.  This will give Obama executive experience and a virtual free pass in 2012.

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By odlid, March 8, 2008 at 9:31 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

That’s kind of mean, Waxman. Desperate people do stupid, dangerous things. I’ll bet you those looters, now in their 50’s and sixties, have mostly made peace with the world and regret their actions.

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By mackTN, March 8, 2008 at 4:41 pm #

When this presidential race started, black voters were fractured among presidential candidates.  A good many were firmly behind Hillary, largely because of Bill, typically seen as a supporter of issues important to many black people—equality, inclusion, education, etc.  In fact, most of Hillary’s black supporters can be attributed to the Bill Clinton legacy, not to the Hillary Clinton platform. 

Other black voters fell behind John Edwards whose focus on the strain on the working/middle class and the dangerous rise of the corporatocracy resonated with progressives.  Even Ralph Nader supported Edwards—and I view Nader as a saint.

Obama slowly picked up black voters across the country.  Unknown to many people outside of Chicago, Obama had to be measured as a candidate worth a valuable vote.  Over time, he has proved worthy of that vote and as the race has narrowed between just Hillary and Barack—well, black people have to vote for one or the other.

Why not Barack Obama?  Winning Iowa, a largely white state, proved to many that this candidate was worth listening to.  Still, Hillary could claim her loyal black supporters of Bill until Bill patronized them in South Carolina.  Even then, Obama wasn’t so certain ab out black voters as evidenced by emails from campaign volunteers begging black voters to re-consider Obama vis a vis Hillary & Edwards. 

Hillary’s candidacy and her presidential profile is totally contrived.  If she’s worthy of the presidency, so is Barack who matches her in nearly all areas—if not moreso.  After all, Obama is not building a case based on a spouse’s record.  We can safely say that Hillary Clinton would not be a senator or a presidential candidate had it not been for Bill Clinton.  Dubya would certainly not have been inflicted on us had it not been for his dad. 

It’s time to stop dissing black voters especially whenever those votes don’t fall the way others would like them to.  Why shouldn’t they vote for Obama?  After all, most of the country is doing the same.

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By Melody Bakken, March 8, 2008 at 11:10 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

People in the groups you are citing often have more life experience with a broader spectrum of individuals.  Their survival depends on their ability to judge people by what they are really made of rather than what they appear to be or how they are presenting themselves.  These people have a deep respect for a person being authentic even if they dislike or despise who the person authentically is.  They have no time for phonies unless you can get past their bullshit detector.  I think the fatal flaw for Obama is that he has tried to portray himself as one of them and clearly he’s not.  Hillary has not tried to pretend that she had a difficult life, she only says she understands their problems and cares about solving them.

The bulk of the black community falls within the perimeters you have described.  At first they were behaving similarly but then they were sold an idea that having a black president would benefit them so greatly that they should ignore their “gut check” and the majority voted for Obama.  It’s not politically correct to mention the impact of black voters on Obama’s delegate lead inspite of how huge that impact has been.  On the other hand, I read article after article implying that Hillary’s success is suspect because it is based on support from these lowly voters- without a college degree (read ignorant), women (read blinded by gender) and older (read senile and stupid).  Maybe his new speech should start by telling the voters in Pennsylvania why voter “class” is such a predominant issue in his campaign to “unify” America.

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By waxman, March 7, 2008 at 4:34 pm #

JUST CURIOUS CYRENA, DO YOU STILL HAVE THE T.V.‘S AND REFRIDGERATOR FROM THE WATTS RIOTS ?????

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By cyrena, March 7, 2008 at 1:59 pm #

rdV

You explained it with the part about some (many) being blind to everything but political labels, and they base their identification exclusively on that. I couldn’t have said it better, even though I’ve tried.

That is EXACTLY the situation. The other thing though, is the old sheepie mentality that never seems to go away. There was a time, albeit a very long time ago, when Hillary was perceived as being a center-situated democrat, at least when she was the first lady. There’s no doubt that Bill was a centrist, and even moved slightly to the right of it.

But, all of that has changed now, and many people are unaware. All they can think about is how ‘things were better’ under the Clintons, and ‘they were nice’. These are people who understand that their lives are totally in the gutter now, but assume that it’ll all be better if we just get Hillary back.

Very sad, but it is the mentality. I see it on this blog, where one would assume that people would know better.

They don’t.

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By VinnieTheSnake, March 7, 2008 at 12:58 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Hillary has gotten nearly twice the number of votes that McCain has gotten in the primaries.
So has Obama.  How can there be a Republican landslide without Diebold?

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By VinnieTheSnake, March 7, 2008 at 12:56 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Even if you give all of Michigan’s uncommitted votes to Obama, Hillary still lead him in actual votes by 67,471.
Who is really the people’s choice?

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By Sang Ze, March 7, 2008 at 12:15 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Obama - pretty words and no substance. Clinton - a lady who thinks being the spouse of a president constitutes experience. And the Democrats think these people are serious candidates? I guess first-rate people no longer care to go into politics. That’s why McCain will win in a landslide.

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By GondolaGiant, March 7, 2008 at 9:53 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

Can’t understand why these empty-headed news people keep saying Hilary has won the big states which makes her the viable candidate. She wasn’t running against a republican for that to have any weight. I presume almost all the democratic presidential candidates like Gore and Kerry did win some or all of the big states but didn’t win the national election. There is nothing there for her to think she can use that arguement to steal the nomination.

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By mackTN, March 7, 2008 at 9:40 am #

I don’t think it has anything at all to do with hiding one’s intelligence.  Obama must realize that with the news full of stories about the sinking middle class, job losses, foreclosures, etc. that people want to fight for issues that are articulated by their candidate.  I don’t want to elect Obama in so much as I want to elect someone who advocates for what I want. 

Obama’s speech about his judgement on Iraq is all very well and good, but it doesn’t provide a solution to something before us.  People get it about Iraq—people are increasingly concerned about losing their homes and jobs and paychecks and that has to trump who was right about a problem that can’t be resolved anymore.  Nafta, corporations downgrading jobs for cheap labor Mexico way, debt, rising gas prices form a freight train coming at us. 

Voters are going to the polls worried about whether they’ll have an income tomorrow or a home for their family.  Right now, Hillary is the only candidate capitalizing on these issues.  And voters want to know who cares about their survival.

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By Expat, March 7, 2008 at 7:23 am #

^ truly hope I’m wrong and would love to be proved so.
Pessimistically, Expat

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By Expat, March 7, 2008 at 7:14 am #

^ he’s going to tow the company/corporate line; he’s finished.  Clinton, who certainly will tow the “line” will be the “one”.  She’s already shown her willingness to go down and dirty, whore that she is, so the corporatists will flock to her and buy her the election which has always been for sale to the highest bidder (not only money).  So Obama will come face to face with the reality which is Amerika.  Amerika could accept an uncle Tom, but not a radical, independent, free thinking black man.  IMO this is the Amerika of today.  They’ll steal this from him.  Wait and see.

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By RdV, March 7, 2008 at 6:54 am #

“But since Tuesday, when Clinton won three out of four states, the delegate count is being dismissed as a mere formality.”

  Then why is she pushing to have the FLA and Michigan delegates seated in a manner that, as it now stands, benefit her?

  Clintonista Terry McAuliffe was boasting about how the Clinton campaign dutifully conforms to the rules regarding Supper delegates, but no one asks how come they would prefer to break them in FLA and Michigan.

  Obama could use some help from John Edwards. Where the hell is he anyway? He could’ve helped Obama in Ohio against Clinton’s dirty tactics but he has disappeared. It is disappointing that he has been a witness to the latest unethical tactics used by Clinton and remained silent. Doesn’t he care?

  Be careful about how you pigeonhole PA. The fight will be in the suburbs and it is NOT backwoods white trash as the stereotype has been projected.

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By RdV, March 7, 2008 at 6:39 am #

Ever wonder how anyone could support Bush against their own best interests?

  Is it any different from those who call themselves Democrats but continue to support Hillary despite her apparent total leap to the other side?

  Either there are Republicans among us advocating for Hillary the hawk as their preferred candidate as easier to beat (and it gets easier by the hour) or some are so blind to everything but political labels that they base their identification exclusively on that. One is left to wonder if they would support Bush if he called himself a Democrat and despise Hillary is she switched to R.

  I just can’t see with every passing hour, how anyone can continue to support Clinton.

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By cyrena, March 7, 2008 at 1:54 am #

Thanks cwhipps,

I had to chuckle, (even though the ‘real time’ wasn’t funny) about the comparison of ‘riots’. I was there that day too (LA for the Watts fireworks) and even though I was some miles away, it was like being in the midst of it. Could be viewed from miles around.

We headed that way though, rather frantically, because of concern for an Aunt, (who did live in the midst of it) and I remember instinctively telling my dad that he should let my mom drive, so he could ‘duck down’ in the car. I was afraid they would think he was white or Jewish, (mostly Jewish shop owners at the time) and maybe do something to him. In hind sight it seems foolish, but I was a kid. Didn’t really quite know what was happening or why, and while I was expecting him to explain it all to me, as he was getting into the explanation, (of why everybody was tearing up their own neighborhood) it just got me worrying.

His explanation was simple enough..it’s NOT their ‘own’ neighborhood. That’s the problem. They just pay these OTHER people, (white) to live here, and buy from them, and on and on. No real opportunity to invest in their own survival, and they’re consistently exploited. THAT’S why I was sort of anxious for him to not be confused with one of the landlords or shop owners.

Meantime, I do remember the skinheads rally there in Cayahoga County in 2004. There have been a couple of others in other states since then, though I can’t call them to mind. The point though, is that racism is still alive and well, and exists mostly where there is limited education. That’s just the bottom line, and it’s been consistently proved over the decades, that more education (exposure to other parts of the world and society) generally means a lesser degree of the racism and other forms of social discrimination and hatred.

As for Obama, I think you’re right. It is his authenticity that makes him the favored candidate, as well as his humility. He doesn’t attempt to act like a ‘smarty pants’ but at the same time, we should be beyond the days where black folks have to ‘hide’ their intelligence. So, he’s not doing that, and it’s gonna piss some people off. Including those who might normally be expected to support him. I received an email the other day entitled “Who Died and Made Tavis (Smiley) King?” I’m thinking it was him. Diagnosed pretty accurately I think, with a crabs in the barrel mentality.

The ONE thing that Obama COULD do though, to stay with himself and his own message, and yet still avoid the Hillary traps, would be to get back on target about the Iraq War in his message. That is what people care about, and he’s well qualified to speak on the consequences of that on-going atrocity, as well as all of the legal complexities of the so-called ‘war on terror’ that have eliminated our civil liberties and basically TRASHED the Constitution. These are things that concern many people, in addition to the war where so many are being lost. It brings it back to consciousness and connects the dots of how everything is connected to that major nastiness.

So, he could do that, and it wouldn’t be a departure from his own self, or his consistency. That’s just a thought.

And, he doesn’t have to slip into any ankle-biting with Hillary either. He’s avoided it this long, and I agree that she’s doing enough to self-destruct. She’s been her own worst enemy in that regard, mostly because of the arrogance…at least at first. She honestly never expected any sort of real competition. Then, once it showed itself, she went into denial, and then became more and more desperate. It’s showing.

So, Obama just needs to maintain the moral high road, and get on with why he agreed to do this run in the first place.

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By cwhipps, March 7, 2008 at 12:09 am #

Personally, I think it would be playing into Clinton’s hands to do anything different at this point. Obama’s main appeal is his AUTHENTICITY. He has been nothing if not consistent. The majority of us feel we know who he is and what he stands for.

He’d be better off if he just kept doing his thing and let Hillary go nuts. She’s already starting to self destruct trying to bait him. She’s becoming reviled in the party, (check out Bill Bradley last week on PBS) and people are going to start getting sick of her trashing him like she’s Bush. (Olbermann refered to her as a “Lieberman Democrat” tonight.)

Obama really doesn’t need to win in Pennsylvania, becasue of the delegate count. All he needs to do is stay close. (like 20 points) I’m not kidding, there’s no way she can win if she doesn’t start blowing him out the rest of the way.

In the end, the party will have to make a choice:

Obama represents a large group of highly motivated, young, wealty, ethnically diverse, highly educated, voters who will be here for 40 to 50 years.

Clinton has some crossover but the majority represent a smaller group of tired, older, low income white, under educated voters who will be here for 20 years, tops.

You have to remember, Ohio is like Forsythe County, Alabama in some parts. The skin heads held a march in Cayahoga in 2004 and it nearly started a riot. (actually, it was a riot, it’s just that i grew up in LA during Watts, so… it’s hard for me to call anything without burnt buildings and streets full of glass “a riot.”)

I think the media will eventually tear the Clintons apart, too. Just like the David and Goliath story of Obama is the stroy they want to write, so is the “Wages of Sin” story they want to write about the Clintons.

The only thing Amerika love more than underdogs is watching Achilles take his arrow in the heel because of pride.

Monika Lewinsky’s wedding is planned for late August, 2008.

Talk about “breaking news.”

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