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The Calm Before the ConflagrationPosted on Feb 25, 2008
By Chris Hedges The United States is funding and in many cases arming the three ethnic factions in Iraq—the Kurds, the Shiites and the Sunni Arabs. These factions rule over partitioned patches of Iraqi territory and brutally purge rival ethnic groups from their midst. Iraq no longer exists as a unified state. It is a series of heavily armed fiefdoms run by thugs, gangs, militias, radical Islamists and warlords who are often paid wages of $300 a month by the U.S. military. Iraq is Yugoslavia before the storm. It is a caldron of weapons, lawlessness, hate and criminality that is destined to implode. And the current U.S. policy, born of desperation and defeat, means that when Iraq goes up, the U.S. military will have to scurry like rats for cover. The supporters of the war, from the Bush White House to Sen. John McCain, tout the surge as the magic solution. But the surge, which primarily deployed 30,000 troops in and around Baghdad, did little to thwart the sectarian violence. The decline in attacks began only when we bought off the Sunni Arabs. U.S. commanders in the bleak fall of 2006 had little choice. It was that or defeat. The steady rise in U.S. casualties, the massive car bombs that tore apart city squares in Baghdad and left hundreds dead, the brutal ethnic cleansing that was creating independent ethnic enclaves beyond our control throughout Iraq, the death squads that carried out mass executions and a central government that was as corrupt as it was impotent signaled catastrophic failure. The United States cut a deal with its Sunni Arab enemies. It would pay the former insurgents. It would allow them to arm and form military units and give them control of their ethnic enclaves. The Sunni Arabs, in exchange, would halt attacks on U.S. troops. The Sunni Arabs agreed. The U.S. is currently spending hundreds of millions of dollars to pay the monthly salaries of some 600,000 armed fighters in the three rival ethnic camps in Iraq. These fighters—Shiite, Kurd and Sunni Arab—are not only antagonistic but deeply unreliable allies. The Sunni Arab militias have replaced central government officials, including police, and taken over local administration and security in the pockets of Iraq under their control. They have no loyalty outside of their own ethnic community. Once the money runs out, or once they feel strong enough to make a thrust for power, the civil war in Iraq will accelerate with deadly speed. The tactic of money-for-peace failed in Afghanistan. The U.S. doled out funds and weapons to tribal groups in Afghanistan to buy their loyalty, but when the payments and weapons shipments ceased, the tribal groups headed back into the embrace of the Taliban. The Sunni Arab militias are known by a variety of names: the Iraqi Security Volunteers (ISVs), neighborhood watch groups, Concerned Local Citizens, Critical Infrastructure Security. The militias call themselves “sahwas" ("sahwa" being the Arabic word for awakening). There are now 80,000 militia fighters, nearly all Sunni Arabs, paid by the United States to control their squalid patches of Iraq. They are expected to reach 100,000. The Sunni Arab militias have more fighters under arms than the Shiite Mahdi Army and are about half the size of the feeble Iraqi army. The Sunni Awakening groups, which fly a yellow satin flag, are forming a political party. The Sunni Arab militias, though they have ended attacks on U.S. forces, detest the Shiite-Kurdish government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and abhor the presence of U.S. troops on Iraqi soil. They take the money and the support with clenched teeth because with it they are able to build a renegade Sunni army, a third force inside Iraq, which they believe will make it possible to overthrow the central government. The Sunni Arabs, who make up about 40 percent of Iraq’s population, held most positions of power under Saddam Hussein. They dominated Iraq’s old officer corps. They made up its elite units, including the Republic Guard divisions and the Special Forces regiments. They controlled the intelligence agencies. There are several hundred thousand well-trained Sunni Arabs who lack only an organizational structure. We have now made the formation of this structure possible. These militias are the foundation for a deadlier insurgent force, one that will dwarf anything the United States faced in the past. The U.S. is arming, funding and equipping its own assassins. There have been isolated clashes that point to a looming conflagration. A Shiite-dominated unit of the regular army in the late summer of 2007 attacked a strong Sunni Arab force west of Baghdad. U.S. troops thrust themselves between the two factions. The enraged Shiites, thwarted in their attack, kidnapped relatives of the commander of the Sunni Arab force, and American negotiators had to plead frantically for their release. There have been scattered incidents like this one throughout Iraq. If the U.S. begins, as promised, to withdraw troops, it will be harder to keep these antagonistic factions apart. The cease-fire by the radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, extended a few days ago, could collapse. And if that happens, a civil war, unlike anything U.S. forces have experienced in Iraq, will begin. Such a conflagration, with the potential to draw in neighboring states and lead to the dismemberment of Iraq, would be the final chapter of the worst foreign policy blunder in American history. Previous item: Two Views on Nader's Candidacy Next item: Playing Favorites Elsewhere: . CommentsAre you a Truthdig member yet? Login now, or register with Truthdig.
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By not provided, March 11 at 12:03 pm # The "surge" is a joke, it's a payoff!!!!Someone should tell McCain (and Obama) that the “surge” isn’t working, our buying off the enemy at $10 per day per head has been reducing the violence. I’d love to see Obama read a few quotes from the NPR story about this (from military personnle in Iraq) during a debate with McCain, and watch McCain fumble for some lame “explaination”. The “surge” is a joke, more lies and deception from the Bush administration.
By 2468, February 28 at 12:26 pm # Civil War in Iraq is Just What theDivide and Conquer has been used in Iraq since the British mandate after WWI. It is still the goal. Let them all kill each other and we will walk in and still get the oil when it is all over. Of course, we will have to stay long enough to do so. The same thing is right now occurring in Kosovo to the Serbs.
By Conservative Yankee, February 28 at 6:07 am # Standard Oil of New York (Socony back then)was not doing appreciable business in the Mid East in those days. Our off-shore opps were in South America, (almost exclusively) and we were still doing business with domestic and Canadian producers for the lions share of production. If Iraq had ceased entirely doing business with us, it would not have lowered share prices by a fraction of a penny. If you are going to give us history lessons, the very least you might do is get the names right. In 63 Standard of New York was still referred to as “SOCONY” (Standard Oil Company Of New York) Before casting disparaging remarks about this entity, in might help you to do some research. They were concerned with “economy” before this was popular, running the “Mobil Economy run” yearly, and they also invested heavily in culture and safty being the first Oil company to mandate doubled hulled tankers for their hauling vessels. The merger between EXXON and Mobil was not good for consumers as Mobil was a forward looking company, and Exxon is much more wed to traditional fuels (See Sable Island) Before the Merger Mobil was moving toward Hydrogen production from sea-water (Not fuel cells) When Hydrogen is burned, the by-products are oxygen, and water pure enough to drink… Think about that.. The Hydrogen program was killed by Exxon
By THIRD, February 28 at 5:16 am # Just when we thought it couldn’t get any worse! Chris Hedges account of the outcome possibilities of paying and arming Iraqi extremist factions is bone chilling to say the least.
By jangelique, February 27 at 9:17 pm # Re: Plenty of Conspiracy TheoriesHow about a dose of TRUTH here! Dubya and company COULD have done something when this mess first began to go sour, but they hid their heads in the sand like a bunch of ostriches pretending nothing was wrong. The window of opportity to correct this mess has long closed.
By Daniel Barker, February 27 at 5:31 pm # Does anybody care?Does anybody care about Iraq? Do you drive an SUV? Do you eat too much meat? As long as we drive SUVs, eat too much meat, live in oversized homes and in general not give a damn about the consequences of our actions our government will act accordingly. Does anybody remember Cindy Sheehan and Camp Casey? Why is Mrs. Sheehan forgotten? What have the Democrats done since ‘Regime Change day’ Nov. 7?
By Pragmatist, February 27 at 5:13 pm # Re: Plenty of Conspiracy TheoriesThey don’t want the civil peace within Iraq. War means money. War in Iraq means oil. It’s not a coincidence that they ran piplines into the Caspian Sea as soon as they moved from Afghanisan to Iraq. Now they’re building bases in Iraq to lauch war against other non-reformed oil producing countries. I have been working between Saudi and Iraq for the past seven years and all I see over there is the protection of gas and or oil wells/piplines.
By Jack, February 27 at 8:11 am # We Can Not Keep the Peace, so howIf the most powerful military that the world has ever known can only keep the peace by paying off the insurgents, how do we expect the Iraqi Police and Military to keep the peace when we leave. The only way that they could keep the peace in Iraq is for them to have a military as powerful as the United States. Is that something that we really want? Beacuse their civil war will likely end in the establishment of a dictator which rules similarly to Saddam Hussein, and he will probably not have a friendly view towards the United States. (Better the devil we did know, than the devil we don’t) It is truly amazing how big this blunder by Bush was. I am not sure that the United States will ever be able to regain our credibility again, especially in the Arab world. This is what happens when you have an interventionist foreign policy and feel you have the right to meddle in the affairs of others. We have stirred up a hornet’s nest but those in power feel that the only course available to us is to keep doing what we are doing, because it is working so well.
By Chuck Norris, February 27 at 7:50 am # Told You SoTold You This Would Happen. A year from now don’t blame me: I’m voting Ron Paul.
By weather, February 26 at 4:59 pm # Re: Thank you LouiseIn keeping w/your post on matters of trust, pls. consider too the media’s full cooperation in choreographing these profound crimes w/such a nonchalance, that one might somehow think this sickness was acceptable. Often in criminal law it is the mens rea, the thought, or the conspiracy to commit the crime that deserves more punishment that the crime itself - here we see a screenplay and story board of darkness.
By JimM72, February 26 at 11:45 am # CAN WE BE CIVIL TO ONE ANOTHER?There are too many insults on this site. Is there no more respect for others? JIm M
By Tosh, February 26 at 7:40 am # Re:Thank you for the reply. The bearded guy in the pictures with Zbig looks like some Pakistani or Indian paratrooper rather than OBL as the caption implies. Keep on.
By DennisD, February 26 at 7:12 am # Ca$h is kingThe only true “surge” has been the $urge of national debt which no one in the District of Corruption is willing to address. Oh sorry, they have forwarded the “address” to the next five generations of tax slaves. Appearing to buy positive results that haven’t actually been realized is what it’s all about. Don’t look behind the curtain or expect the MSM to expose how the results are being achieved - that would be real news reporting that would get people fired. It’s an “election” year and as usual everything in America is for $ale including the voters expectations of a real change of direction that neither the D’s or R’s are willing to make.
By David Wilson, February 25 at 10:56 pm # Shi'ite-Sunni UnityIf Shi’itesd and Sunni’s united, Baghdad would be another Dienbienphu.
By Tosh, February 25 at 3:46 pm # Maani said; “(which, by the way, is EXACTLY how we created the Taliban, Al Qaeda and OBL in Afghanistan - thanks, in no small part, to the efforts of Obama’s chief foreign policy advisor, ZB).” Is that Zbig? Thought he was with Carter? Were they (Taliban, AlQaeda, and OBL) not created during the Reagan admin?
By writeon, February 25 at 2:25 pm # Buying off the enemy would appear to be a delaying tactic. Delaying inevitable defeat until after the persidential election. Almost everything the United States is doing in Iraq has little to do with Iraq in itself, but a great deal to do with the management of perceptions internally, in the United States in an election year. If Iraq was exploding right now, it’s difficult to imagine the possibility a Republican victory. So the lid has to kept on Iraq, by any means necessary, until the election is over, afterwards who knows what might happen? Add Your Comment |
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