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So Much for Conventional Wisdom

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Posted on Feb 6, 2008

By Ellen Goodman

    BOSTON—Well, so much for political bingeing. Super Tuesday, Super Duper Tuesday, Plus Size Tuesday, Vastly Engorged and Rotund Tuesday turned into a serious case of political bulimia. Never before have so many gorged on such huge portions of political expectations only to find themselves purged the next morning.

    The biggest-ever Super Tuesday, the closest-thing-to-a-national-primary, was supposed to end up with a pair of nominees. Instead it ended up with “bragging rights,” mutually assured destructive spin, and five separate victory speeches. Quick, quick, which candidate said this: “We are hearing the voices of people across America”? Or this: “One thing that’s clear is, this campaign’s going on”?

    By the wee hours of the morning, only 35,000 votes out of 14 million separated Clinton and Obama. If McCain was standing a little taller, Huckabee was still vertical. The only big news came when Romney, after another night’s sleep, lay down his wallet and quit. That was after banks of TV analysts had spent hours mining mountains of data for nuggets of meaning.

    Even a political junkie felt overstuffed trying to digest arcane rules in primaries scattered across the political landscape. It was like pulling an all-nighter in college to learn facts that—the good Lord willing—you wouldn’t need to know after the exam. Quick, quick, which states have winner-take-all and which states have proportional primaries? What’s a superdelegate and does she need a phone booth in which to change her allegiance?

    There is, however, one loser we can identify with absolute certainty and a modicum of glee. It’s the Harold Stassen of election-year politics—ta da—conventional wisdom. To wit, the Ten Dead Tenets of the Late, Great C.W.

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    Conventional Wisdom One: It’ll Be All Over By Feb. 6. Remember all the states hustling to get into the Super Tuesday lineup so they wouldn’t be left on the tarmac? Goodbye, California. Hello, Oregon, the big May enchilada.

    Conventional Wisdom Two: Kennedys Are Kingmakers. The C.W. mongers swooned when the New Frontier endorsed Next New Thing. But Ted and Caroline’s excellent adventure for Obama didn’t even deliver Massachusetts. Maybe the JFK quote of the season isn’t about “passing the torch to a new generation.” Maybe it’s that other Camelot standby: “Life isn’t fair.”

    Conventional Wisdom Three: Southern White Men Won’t Vote for a Black for President. Circle “False” on your Georgia answer sheet where 48 percent of Democratic white men went for Obama, disproving the last acceptable bigotry: anti-redneckism. Unless, of course, they were proving that Southern white men still won’t vote for a woman. Oh well.

    Conventional Wisdom Four: Evangelicals Vote in Lockstep. Well, this year, they didn’t march left, right—or, rather, right, right—together. Nationally, Huckabee, Romney and McCain divided the evangelical vote. 

    Conventional Wisdom Five: McCain Is the Man of the Military Hour. The man who prides himself on outflanking George Bush in his pro-war stance won among Republicans who are against the war. Peaceniks for War Unite!

    Conventional Wisdom Six: Money Uber Alles. After investing $35 million, Romney still couldn’t pull off a leveraged buyout of the Republican Party. His campaign looked like one of those Florida bumper stickers: I’m spending my children’s inheritance.

    Conventional Wisdom Seven: Dittoheads Rule. The combined weight of Republican talk radio was thrown at John McCain. It bounced off.

    Conventional Wisdom Eight: Value Voters Rule and Familymeister James Dobson Sits on the Republican Throne. See above. See No. 7.

    Conventional Wisdom Nine: A Female Commander in Chief is an Oxymoron. When Democrats were asked who was most qualified to be commander in chief, Hillary won 51 to 36 over Obama. Is that a badge or a burden?

    Conventional Wisdom Ten: The Democratic Party Will Be Torn Apart by Race and Gender. To a man with a hammer everything looks like a nail. To a pollster every demography has its difference and every subdivision its divisiveness. Black and white, Asian and Latino, male and female, age and class gaps have been parsed to their nearest decimal point. But the exit polls also tell us that 72 percent of the Democrats will be happy if Hillary is the nominee and 71 percent if it’s Obama.

    In the end, the Tsunami Tuesday may be better known for the tornadoes in the South and the free fall in the stock market, but let us not discount the tenacity of conventional wisdom. There is after all, one piece of C.W. still on our platter.

    Conventional Wisdom Eleven: yes, folks, the Death of the Nominating Convention. We can all agree that the days when a nomination is decided in a big brawling hall by big brawling delegates is over. Uh, sure.   

    Ellen Goodman’s e-mail address is ellengoodman(at)globe.com.   

    © 2008, Washington Post Writers Group


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By Maani, February 8, 2008 at 10:15 pm #

Felicity:

Well, clearly you either misheard her or she misspoke.  So what?  She has made her position clear consistently over the past few debates: one or two brigades (~3,000-6,000 soliders) will return each month beginning 60 days after she takes office.

Peace.

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By felicity, February 8, 2008 at 6:28 pm #

Maani, was Hillary.  I about fell on the floor when she said it, it being “I will bring the troops home within 60 days of becoming president.”

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By Maani, February 7, 2008 at 7:58 pm #

No, Felicity, that is not what she said.  She has consistently said (at least beginning with the debates) that she will BEGIN bringing home troops within 60 days.

Please cite your source.

Peace.

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By felicity, February 7, 2008 at 7:32 pm #

Hillary’s latest minutes-ago.  “I will bring the troops home from Iraq within sixty days of when I become president.” Impossible even if one wanted to.

And McCain performing for conservatives - “the government must protect the liberty and property of every individual” - (not McCain) except when she wants to exercise her liberty and end her pregnancy, or he wants to exercise his liberty and control his life by dying.

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By Maani, February 7, 2008 at 5:12 pm #

Outraged:

Yikes!  I’ve seen other videos like this one, and they just make me cringe.  True, it is a very small “sample size.”  But it shows a fundamental lack of education re geography, history (even recent history), and socio-politics.

May be we should revoke these people’s right to vote!  LOL.

Peace.

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By Outraged, February 7, 2008 at 2:23 pm #

Wisdom….?  Whoa, some of us would have a long way to go if we were actually TRYING to get there…....

Cyrena:

This one’s for you…well…..and Texas…....LOL.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7835058485419253156&q=Why+people+think+Americans+are+stupid&total=91&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0

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By Maani, February 7, 2008 at 12:26 pm #

Here, here!  Let me add my voice to JS and Cyrena; fabulous stuff!  I think YOU should be writing for LieDig; you make more sense in three long paragraphs than the regular writers do in a long piece.  And you’re ALOT funnier!

Bravo!

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By jackpine savage, February 7, 2008 at 11:18 am #

Outstanding rant, I,Q…outstanding rant!

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By cyrena, February 7, 2008 at 5:50 am #

This is all too sadly true, but very entertaining nonetheless. (great when reality can actually bring a chuckle these days…takes talent to do that. wink )

Anyway..thanks. I love the Oven Mitt label, although I can’t quite get to any chuckles with Chucklesbee, seeing as how the “Near Enders” and others whose entire lives are spent waiting for the future after death. Geeze…they are SO depressing, but there sure are a hell of a lot of them.

So you’re right…Wisdom is overrated, just like youth is wasted on the young.

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By i,Q, February 7, 2008 at 5:24 am #

Or rather, wisdom is dead. The soundbite rules and even Orwell’s notion of the Ministry of Truth seems quaint: that there would be a bureaucracy with hundreds of employees scurrying around revising historical documents to keep them in line with whatever the current media narrative!  No, there is a large enough and effective enough portion of society who simply does not care what the history is or was (i believe most of Congress fals in this category), or what the facts are, or about any of the details of any policy or for that matter how pollsters assert that they should or shouldn’t behave (within a 4% margin of error). Wisdom is out the window with the bathwater close behind it.

We don’t care much for history anymore with all of this now! now! now! being shoved in our collective faces, but what we do care about is making history. i’m not sure why since no one will care about it come Monday—or tomorrow even (unless there’s a parade and an excuse to get wasted in the middle of the day). Old white ladies and latinos are voting for Clinton because she looks vaguely familiar and yet somehow different all at the same time, and there’s a certain comfort to that in all this confusion. Young people raised on videogames and Sesame Street know that sequels are rarely as good as the original, so they want Obama. And older white men are jumping on board with Obama as well, but for them it’s the familiarity factor in reverse, Hillary reminds them too much of their wives (insert rimshot for comic effect). Yet both candidates are, in the ever-inspiring sloganizing of Wolf Blitzer, “electrifying because history will be made!

Even if making history isn’t your thing or you really don’t have a clue about it or are deathly afraid of change, you can cozy up to McCain and snooze comfortably while he drones on with all the charisma of a fifth grade book report. And let’s not forget the social conservatives whose entire lives are spent waiting for a future after death—for them history can take a flying leap, it’s not all that flattering to them anyhow. They have the noble burden of deciding between Chucklesbee and his bottomless bag of well timed one-liners (or Chuck-a-bee if you want to maximize the Norris factor) and Oven Mitt trying not to get burned as he attempts to have his cake and eat it too. As to which will be the emcee as the rapture carries true-believers away from this f@cking mess they’ve created for the rest of us to live down, there’s no contest, Huck’s the better showman….

...as is Obama on the dem’s side.  And in this media age, where the sound bite rules, it’s the new that’s news. Don’t worry what you say, it’ll be forgotten tomorrow anyway. Just look sharp and sound real good, and give a nod to camera two. Now take a breath and settle in, we’re back in 3… 2… 1…

“Welcome my friends to the show that never ends….”

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