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The Ups and Downs of ElectabilityPosted on Jan 31, 2008WASHINGTON—Now that the presidential field has been winnowed to four—barring a miraculous return by one of the contestants recently voted off the island—the new national pastime is gaming the electability factor. This could keep us busy for a while, since you could make the argument that all four remaining major candidates are potentially unelectable. They all have great political strengths, too—some more than others. And it’s a safe bet that one of them will win in November, thus proving that he or she possessed sufficient electability all along. But this column is about the considerable political weaknesses that burden the Democratic and Republican front-runners like so much dead weight. No matter how you figure the matchups, any one of them could lose. Did someone mention John McCain? Maybe I’m missing something, but I haven’t completely bought into the consensus view that the Arizona senator would be the tougher opponent for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama to beat. I assume that if McCain gets the Republican nomination, true-believer conservatives will agree to a cease-fire and fall in line. They might do so more quickly and more passionately if Clinton is the Democratic nominee, but it’s crazy to imagine that Rush Limbaugh and his ilk would give Obama an easier time than Hillary. And McCain’s apostasy does, at least superficially, seem likely to attract more support from independents than Mitt Romney’s newfound orthodoxy. But after George W. Bush’s military misadventures—with more than 150,000 U.S. troops still in Iraq, the Taliban resurgent in Afghanistan, and the United States and Iran engaged in what amounts to a new Cold War—are independents going to vote for a man who promises that “there will be other wars,” as McCain has said? With the U.S. economy at a near standstill and soon-to-retire baby boomers watching their home equity and their 401(k) savings accounts evaporate, are people going to elect a man who admits he doesn’t understand economics all that well? And while Chuck Norris deserved to be slammed for the way he talked about McCain’s age, it is an issue. Romney’s the right age, and he certainly looks presidential—too presidential, actually, as if he had a stylist on call 24/7. At least he understands how the U.S. economic system works, even if he’s happy with policies that have rigged it to reward the rich. Given his proven determination to tell Republicans anything they want to hear if it will win him the nomination, I’m sure he would do the same in a general election campaign. He might even suddenly recall that he was once a fairly moderate governor of the most liberal state in the nation. His downside is as obvious as his immaculate coif: As David Letterman has noted, “He looks like the guy on TV selling life insurance, doesn’t he? ... He looks like that guy on a Father’s Day ad for Norelco. ... He looks like the guy on the ‘Just for Men’ bottle.” Sounds that way, too. On the Democratic side, for the sake of argument let’s ignore the obvious fact that the election of either Obama or Clinton would be a historic first. Both are essentially in agreement on the major issues. But neither has a lock on electability. Clinton’s big problem is The Whole Clinton Thing—the specter of Bill’s return to center stage, the all-too-familiar politics of triangulation, the psychodrama of the marriage, the fact that they’ve already had eight years in the White House. The prospect of a Restoration so energizes Republicans that the party would try its best to forgive McCain’s transgressions or Romney’s artificiality in the interest of unity against a clear and present threat. It would be total war. Obama has the magic, no doubt about it. Of all the major candidates, I believe he has the most crossover appeal; I know dyed-in-the-wool conservative Republicans who are so mesmerized by his oratory that they say they would actually vote for him over McCain or Romney. But the “experience” question is real, and if he’s not careful, it has the potential to sink him. One bad stumble during the fall campaign could be enough to convince voters that he’s not ready. Obama may have the best chance to win big in November and receive a sweeping mandate. But if he were to make mistakes, he may also be more likely than the others to lose big. Eugene Robinson’s e-mail address is eugenerobinson(at)washpost.com. © 2008, Washington Post Writers Group Previous item: Ten Months Too Long Next item: The McCain Divide Elsewhere: . CommentsAre you a Truthdig member yet? Login now, or register with Truthdig.
By Gerald Carson, February 13 at 3:11 pm # Obama as a topic for comedians and cartoonistsWith Obama as President will noted late night comedians and celebrated cartoonists be subject to intense scrutiny from Al & Jesse?
By Sang Ze, February 6 at 1:06 pm # Have no fear, my friends. Even if the Democrats get themselves together enough to field a candidate worth a vote, the poor sucker will quickly be swiftboated into oblivion. We let Bush and the Republicans take over the presidency in 2000, and there’s no way they will ever leave given the lack of concern of the voting population too busy getting set to spend its pittance of a rebate on bigger dumb boxes and suv’s. We sold our dreams out long ago, and lack the imagination to see change when it is a possiblity.
By Conservative Yankee, February 3 at 10:38 am # “He (Mitt-the-shit Romney) might even suddenly recall that he was once a fairly moderate governor of the most liberal state in the nation.” It is comments like this which make me believe that the liberals are as out-of-touched with reality as the conservatives seem to be. Here is a man who gets paid by the Washington Post who believes Massachusetts (Where a Republican running for Governor (since Dukakis) has a 5 to one chance of being elected. Has this man ever visited South Boston (might not be a good idea) Charleston, or Blue Hill Avenue? Has he been to Lawrence, Bedford, or Holyoke? Does he know that it was the Massachusetts supreme court which gave the Commonwealth gay marriage and there is a large concerted effort to overturn this judicial fiat? Vermont actually elected a socialist to the House of representatives that is a statewide office as Vermont only has one representative. Then recently they elevated him to the Senate. Massachusetts has never elected a woman to the Governor’s chair, Vermont has had two women governors. Oregon has a right to die law, and allows medicinal marijuana Massachusetts defeated similar legislation twice by citizen referendum. Massachusetts voted for Ron Reagan twice, and Ford lost there by fewer than 2000 votes (out of 1.7 million) 7 States allow illegal immigrants to obtain driver’s licenses Massachusetts is not one of them. three States prohibit the military from recruiting in their high schools, Massachusetts is not one of them. So how does a person with a screen name “Conservative Yankee” know what’s liberal… Well maybe I don’t, but this conservative is real comfortable in Massachusetts I wouldn’t like Oregon!
By gregory, February 2 at 7:19 pm # I SO much enjoy your enthusiasm. I get disheartened by the security-oriented Clinton supporters. Change can be frightening, and people tend to cling to the familiar, even if the familiar inspires contempt. The MSM also influences so many people with it’s unquestioning repetition of Clinton’s claim of more experience. But I too believe in the potential and power of a Obama nomination and presidency. I refuse to sell my soul for the so-called “security” of the same ole, same ole. OBAMA ‘08!
By MrJJ, February 2 at 7:53 am # Another CO-Presidency in the makingAmerica enjoyed the Co-Presidency of the Bubble Boy Bush & Chenney they they gave them an8 year run… If the Billary campaign wins.. look what you get Another CO-Presidency ... for pehaps another 8 years… That brings the Billary’s up to a total of 16 years… Thats the ticket. Pick up your old baggage and get on board! My party right or wrong.... Dont Think so
By yours truly, February 1 at 4:18 pm # It Isn’t Who We Put In The White House “What is it then?” “It’s whether or not our next president upon taking office is going to end the Iraq war plus turning things around here at home.” “And why is this?” “Either we end the Iraq war or it’ll be the end of us.” Add Your Comment |
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