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Reports

The Ups and Downs of Electability

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Posted on Jan 31, 2008

By Eugene Robinson

WASHINGTON—Now that the presidential field has been winnowed to four—barring a miraculous return by one of the contestants recently voted off the island—the new national pastime is gaming the electability factor. This could keep us busy for a while, since you could make the argument that all four remaining major candidates are potentially unelectable.

They all have great political strengths, too—some more than others. And it’s a safe bet that one of them will win in November, thus proving that he or she possessed sufficient electability all along. But this column is about the considerable political weaknesses that burden the Democratic and Republican front-runners like so much dead weight. No matter how you figure the matchups, any one of them could lose.

Did someone mention John McCain? Maybe I’m missing something, but I haven’t completely bought into the consensus view that the Arizona senator would be the tougher opponent for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama to beat.

I assume that if McCain gets the Republican nomination, true-believer conservatives will agree to a cease-fire and fall in line. They might do so more quickly and more passionately if Clinton is the Democratic nominee, but it’s crazy to imagine that Rush Limbaugh and his ilk would give Obama an easier time than Hillary. And McCain’s apostasy does, at least superficially, seem likely to attract more support from independents than Mitt Romney’s newfound orthodoxy.

But after George W. Bush’s military misadventures—with more than 150,000 U.S. troops still in Iraq, the Taliban resurgent in Afghanistan, and the United States and Iran engaged in what amounts to a new Cold War—are independents going to vote for a man who promises that “there will be other wars,” as McCain has said? With the U.S. economy at a near standstill and soon-to-retire baby boomers watching their home equity and their 401(k) savings accounts evaporate, are people going to elect a man who admits he doesn’t understand economics all that well? And while Chuck Norris deserved to be slammed for the way he talked about McCain’s age, it is an issue.

Romney’s the right age, and he certainly looks presidential—too presidential, actually, as if he had a stylist on call 24/7. At least he understands how the U.S. economic system works, even if he’s happy with policies that have rigged it to reward the rich. Given his proven determination to tell Republicans anything they want to hear if it will win him the nomination, I’m sure he would do the same in a general election campaign. He might even suddenly recall that he was once a fairly moderate governor of the most liberal state in the nation.

His downside is as obvious as his immaculate coif: As David Letterman has noted, “He looks like the guy on TV selling life insurance, doesn’t he? ... He looks like that guy on a Father’s Day ad for Norelco. ... He looks like the guy on the ‘Just for Men’ bottle.” Sounds that way, too.

On the Democratic side, for the sake of argument let’s ignore the obvious fact that the election of either Obama or Clinton would be a historic first. Both are essentially in agreement on the major issues. But neither has a lock on electability.

Clinton’s big problem is The Whole Clinton Thing—the specter of Bill’s return to center stage, the all-too-familiar politics of triangulation, the psychodrama of the marriage, the fact that they’ve already had eight years in the White House. The prospect of a Restoration so energizes Republicans that the party would try its best to forgive McCain’s transgressions or Romney’s artificiality in the interest of unity against a clear and present threat. It would be total war.

Obama has the magic, no doubt about it. Of all the major candidates, I believe he has the most crossover appeal; I know dyed-in-the-wool conservative Republicans who are so mesmerized by his oratory that they say they would actually vote for him over McCain or Romney. But the “experience” question is real, and if he’s not careful, it has the potential to sink him. One bad stumble during the fall campaign could be enough to convince voters that he’s not ready.

Obama may have the best chance to win big in November and receive a sweeping mandate. But if he were to make mistakes, he may also be more likely than the others to lose big. 

Eugene Robinson’s e-mail address is eugenerobinson(at)washpost.com.

© 2008, Washington Post Writers Group

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By Gerald Carson, February 13 at 3:11 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Obama as a topic for comedians and cartoonists

With Obama as President will noted late night comedians and celebrated cartoonists be subject to intense scrutiny from Al & Jesse?

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By Sang Ze, February 6 at 1:06 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Have no fear, my friends. Even if the Democrats get themselves together enough to field a candidate worth a vote, the poor sucker will quickly be swiftboated into oblivion. We let Bush and the Republicans take over the presidency in 2000, and there’s no way they will ever leave given the lack of concern of the voting population too busy getting set to spend its pittance of a rebate on bigger dumb boxes and suv’s. We sold our dreams out long ago, and lack the imagination to see change when it is a possiblity.

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By Paracelsus, February 4 at 12:06 pm #
(476 comments total)

Professional Wrestling

McCain will be revealed to be a Manchurian Candidate. Obama will be exposed as a bisexual who pays for sex and smokes rock cocaine. These scandals will clear the way for globalist Hillary Clinton to wear the purple.

I received an email from Paul Streitz, a Republican activist detailing ignomious actions of Mr. McCain when he was in the Hanoi Hilton. He had done broadcasts in Hanoi acting as a sort of Tokyo Rose. He was given the services of two prostitutes during his stay in prison. The source of this info is from a Russian agent who served in Hanoi as a translator and liaison for the Russians. Please check it out at http://www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnmccain.com/cin_mc cainfiles.htm

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By Frank Cajon, February 3 at 2:58 pm #
(149 comments total)

I hope all of you folks with kids have told them to drop their Guitar Hero games and get back into first-person war simulation stuff. They will need those skills, as McCain launches his series of Crusades after the Jackasses push Billary past Obama because Big Biz, HMOs, and pharmaceuticals want Bubba back in the Big Chair so bad all other considerations are secondary, and even if it means giving yet another election away. The McCain draft will be in place and we will finally have some damn demonstrations in the streets-like we should have been having for the last seven years. Though I have registered Green I will pin my few remaining hopes on Obama somehow pulling an upset, but it’s wishful thinking; the party that gave us Dukakis, Gore, Mondale and Kerry has sold every American who isn’t already on board with the Bush/Cheney Reich into GOP bondage for another four years, while Laura Bush is primed for a Congressional run (Texans would probably elect her just on name recognition) and then a White House bid to front for a fifth Reich. It will take a few years, and we can all hope that Cheney’s failing health will opt him out of the new regime. There will be other wars, you’re goddamn right.

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By Conservative Yankee, February 3 at 10:38 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

“He (Mitt-the-shit Romney) might even suddenly recall that he was once a fairly moderate governor of the most liberal state in the nation.”

It is comments like this which make me believe that the liberals are as out-of-touched with reality as the conservatives seem to be.

Here is a man who gets paid by the Washington Post who believes Massachusetts (Where a Republican running for Governor (since Dukakis) has a 5 to one chance of being elected.

Has this man ever visited South Boston (might not be a good idea) Charleston, or Blue Hill Avenue?  Has he been to Lawrence, Bedford, or Holyoke? Does he know that it was the Massachusetts supreme court which gave the Commonwealth gay marriage and there is a large concerted effort to overturn this judicial fiat?

Vermont actually elected a socialist to the House of representatives that is a statewide office as Vermont only has one representative. Then recently they elevated him to the Senate. Massachusetts has never elected a woman to the Governor’s chair, Vermont has had two women governors.  Oregon has a right to die law, and allows medicinal marijuana Massachusetts defeated similar legislation twice by citizen referendum. Massachusetts voted for Ron Reagan twice, and Ford lost there by fewer than 2000 votes (out of 1.7 million) 7 States allow illegal immigrants to obtain driver’s licenses Massachusetts is not one of them. three States prohibit the military from recruiting in their high schools, Massachusetts is not one of them.

So how does a person with a screen name “Conservative Yankee” know what’s liberal… Well maybe I don’t, but this conservative is real comfortable in Massachusetts I wouldn’t like Oregon!

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By gregory, February 2 at 7:19 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

I SO much enjoy your enthusiasm.  I get disheartened by the security-oriented Clinton supporters.  Change can be frightening, and people tend to cling to the familiar, even if the familiar inspires contempt.  The MSM also influences so many people with it’s unquestioning repetition of Clinton’s claim of more experience.  But I too believe in the potential and power of a Obama nomination and presidency.  I refuse to sell my soul for the so-called “security” of the same ole, same ole.  OBAMA ‘08!

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By VillageElder, February 2 at 5:10 pm #
(102 comments total)

Swiftboats are coming ...

By cyrena, February 2 at 4:07 am #
Re: Underestimating Republican logic

By cyrena, February 1 at 3:55 am #
Not doubt about the ODDEST

Rupuglican logic = dogma

Keep it up.  We will see more attacks on Obama and/or Hillary as the primaries go on.  Just a taste of what the repug lie machine will do during the general election.  No matter which of these two becomes the nominee the lies and whispers will grow.  Thanks for doing a bit of “keeping them honest”.

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By MrJJ, February 2 at 7:53 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

Another CO-Presidency in the making

America enjoyed the Co-Presidency of the Bubble Boy Bush & Chenney they they gave them an8 year run…

If the Billary campaign wins.. look what you get Another CO-Presidency ... for pehaps another 8 years… That brings the Billary’s up to a total of 16 years… Thats the ticket. Pick up your old baggage and get on board!

My party right or wrong.... Dont Think so

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By Marjorie L. Swanson, February 2 at 5:58 am #
(115 comments total)

Eugene Robinson is consistently fair and insightful? He has been an unabashed Obama supporter for months. As for Chris Matthews “genuflecting” to the Clinton campaign for underestimating them that didn’t stop him from going right back to his Clinton bashing the next day. If Chris Matthews and MSNBC doesn’t give you all the Clinton hate you want you could always try Limbaugh or O’Reilly or Hannity.

Eugene Robinson, as well as any other citizen has the right to say which candidate he prefers. But if he has any integrity, he then cannot pretend to report “fairly” about the candidates.

I think Obama is a slick-talking phony. My opinion and my right to my opinion. I cannot now pretend to be fair in my assessment of the candidates. It just doesn’t work that way.

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By cyrena, February 2 at 4:07 am #
(4172 comments total)

Maybe the PEOPLE will decide?

Enlisting New Donors, Obama Reaped $32 Million in January

By Leslie Wayne and Jeff Zeleny
The New York Times
Friday 01 February 2008

As he was winning contests in Iowa and South Carolina, Senator Barack Obama raised $32 million in January for his presidential bid, tapping 170,000 new contributors to rake in nearly double the highest previous one-month total for any candidate in this election cycle.

This extraordinary influx of cash comes at a critical time, and is helping to fuel the Obama campaign’s nationwide advertising blitz and get-out-the-vote effort as it competes in the 22 states holding nominating contests on Tuesday, including expensive ones like California and New York.

The money was mostly collected from small donors, who the campaign is hoping will continue to give in coming months and who represent an increasingly formidable force in presidential fund-raising. By contrast, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has relied more on a smaller pool of big-money donors, many of whom have already given the maximum allowable under the law.

The $32 million is significant because no candidate who has not yet secured the party nomination has raised this amount in a single month. In March 2004, Senator John Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts, raised $44 million, but that was after it was clear he would be the nominee. In this election cycle, the highest monthly take previously was the $17 million raised by Mrs. Clinton, of New York, last March.

“This is astonishing, and it may be Obama’s secret weapon,” said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan group that tracks campaign spending. “He has more small donors that he can squeeze for more donations, fewer donors who have maxed out and more donors in general.”

The Clinton campaign had not yet released fund-raising totals for January.

For all of 2007, Mrs. Clinton raised $118 million, and Mr. Obama $103 million. But a greater share of Mrs. Clinton’s money than Mr. Obama’s is directed to the general election, as many of her donors have reached the maximum they can give to her primary campaign.

The one-month total for Mr. Obama, of Illinois, also shows the growing power of the Internet as a fund-raising tool. Veteran fund-raisers said it would have been impossible for the campaign to raise that sum by relying solely on well-heeled donors and “bundlers,” donors who tap networks of acquaintances for support.

“When you get $32 million in one month, it is not because you have bundlers working,” said Orin Kramer, a New York financier and Obama fund-raiser. “It is because you have an avalanche of small donors operating online. It’s a revolution. People like me don’t achieve those kinds of numbers.”

What is particularly surprising is that this one-month total, which the campaign was eager to preview on Thursday, is coming after a year of intense fund-raising by Democratic candidates, who have far outraised their Republican counterparts. But with the race going beyond the Feb. 5 contests, the need for cash by the Clinton and Obama campaigns is expected only to increase.

“Most money is usually raised at the beginning, when the strongest supporters quickly come up with the most,” said Jan Baran, a campaign finance lawyer in Washington who advises Republicans.

On the Republican side, the candidate filings show other struggles. That of Senator John McCain of Arizona shows that his finances were perilously thin as the year ended and before he scored a major victory in the New Hampshire primary, which reinvigorated fund-raising efforts."…

The rest at the link…

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/020108K.shtml

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By pbr90, February 1 at 4:38 pm #
(8 comments total)

Underestimating Republican logic

They sold the entire Congress to allow invasion of the War in Iraq; what makes people think that Republicans will gladly give up the White House to either Obama or Hillary?

With the war still going on, the economy on its way to tanking, and a visibly bunkered down Congress, no Democrat will be able to be sold as good in the eyes of Republicans, much less one under the influence of race or gender bias, regardless of how inspiring or competent they sound.

Republicans are not bad debaters; in fact, they tend to be quite adept. Democrats will have to use everything they possess to insure a Democratic victory in November - personality isn’t going to carry the day.

A black man with at best 15% of the entire vote of the nation who promises free money to other blacks isn’t probably a reasonable or credible choice, especially one with Kenyan citizenship in a day of global business.

A former First Lady seen as competent but who may have an aggressive posture from experience in the White House already and a former President in tow is also debatable, even with 51% of women in the nation voting for her. Memories are apparently not as short as suspected. But few are remembering the good times.

An older President in McCain who seems more tied to the military than the nation and promises 100 years of financial outlays, if necessary, makes everyone suspicious of being safe, but broke. A viable option after nearly 3 million jobs lost?

If anyone can find something to vote for here, good luck. Of course, there is always Romney, itching to get in the door and convert the entire country into his own private venture capital company - probably through biotech. Does anyone think that will be better?

The best Americans can hope for is the joy of watching the candidates tear each other apart with quips and putdowns, or watch Obama’s self effacing arrogance of what a great President he’s going to be and how right and perfect he will be on day 1 with Teddy in his back pocket.

Not much of an election so far, but why should Americans expect more of rose garden delusions? If America is already bankrupt, can it matter anyway?

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By cyrena, February 2 at 3:24 am #
(4172 comments total)

Re: Underestimating Republican logic

pbr90

• A black man with at best 15% of the entire vote of the nation who promises free money to other blacks isn’t probably a reasonable or credible choice, especially one with Kenyan citizenship in a day of global business.

This is interesting…another example for my study on propaganda.

Let me ask, and hopefully you’ll be able to point me to one or more valid sources…

WHEN did Barack Obama ever ‘promise free money’ to other blacks. I think that’s total propaganda, but I’m certainly willing to be guided to the source of such a claim or statement, or position from him. (I won’t hold my breath however).

An even bigger assault on truth, would be the innuendo about Kenyan citizenship. Tell me how or why you believe that Barack Obama has Kenyan citizenship, when he was born and raised in the US of A? His FATHER is Kenyan, and that’s that.

So, if HE has Kenyan citizenship, based on the fact that his father was born in Kenya, (and eventually returned there after the divorce from Obama’s mother), than does that mean that each and every American citizen, who has a parent born in ANY OTHER country, automatically has citizenship to that other country?

Allow me to answer that…NO!! As a matter of fact, even US citizens born outside of the US, don’t ‘automatically’ have citizenship in whatever country they are born it. Example, I have cousins born outside of the US. One in Hong Kong, about 40 years ago, and another in England, about 50 years ago. Their fathers were stationed in the US military at those locations. The one born in Hong Kong apparently had the ‘option’ of a Hong Kong or US citizenship, but NOT both. That was a no-brainer, seeing as how they returned to the US shortly after her birth. She is a US citizen, and always has been. The one born in England never left there, (even though her father did, after finishing his tour of duty there) and she is obviously a citizen of the UK. Another no-brainer.

So, as far as I know, Barack Obama, U.S. citizen, born in Hawaii, to a citizen of the US, (his mother) and raised in Kansas, by more citizens of the US, (his mother and his stepfather) is and has always been, a citizen of the US. So, where do you come up with this Kenyan citizenship?

More lies and propaganda I think. No, I’m SURE.

Let me know about that free money too. I could sure use some of it. Where do I go to apply?

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By yours truly, February 1 at 4:18 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

It Isn’t Who We Put In The White House

“What is it then?”

“It’s whether or not our next president upon taking office is going to end the Iraq war plus turning things around here at home.”

“And why is this?”

“Either we end the Iraq war or it’ll be the end of us.”

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By Maani, February 1 at 3:28 pm #
(1271 comments total)

I stopped reading this after reading the first sentence, particularly, “...the new national pastime is gaming the electability factor.”

What self-serving claptrap!  What arrogance and presumption!  No, Mr. Robinson, that is NOT the “new national pasttime” - except for members of the complicit corporate media like yourself!  A more honest statement would have been “The new MEDIA pasttime is gaming the electability factor.”

What a crock!

Peace.  (Maybe...)

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By PatrickHenry, February 1 at 2:35 pm #
(1114 comments total)

Consolidation of Media

Recently, fewer and fewer people and corporations are allowed to own the entire spectrum of news and commentary, forcing their version of the truth upon us, ignoring and failing to print any dissenting perspective to their own.

This issue is likely the most important issue facing America today, the manipulation of the free press by a few, controlling what we see, hear and read.

Thank you internet.

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By KISS, February 1 at 6:25 am #
(152 comments total)

Which Corporate Flag are you voting for?

The election is a fixed deal no matter which one wins we citizens lose.

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By Aegrus, February 1 at 6:04 am #
(741 comments total)

Fall Debates

Obama wins. Period.

It has been more than evident to me, Barack Obama doesn’t make many mistakes. The clear vision he has enables him to speak well on virtually any topic. Most of his policy plans, dialog and speeches flow from him like refreshing mountain streams of inspiration.

Barack is confident, cool and assertive in every public appearance. People grasp immediately on his words. The only reason anyone is considering to vote for Hillary is their own political fatigue, which stops them from believing the truth when it is put in their face because they have been through all the lies of politicians. It’s sad when people lose faith, but trust me when I say Barack Obama is the man for the job, this is the right time for his campaign and he WILL be the next president of the United States of America!

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By cyrena, February 1 at 3:55 am #
(4172 comments total)

Not doubt about the ODDEST

cwhipps,

I had to chuckle at your comments. Ted Kennedy gang-banging women? (or gang raping, whatever). Is NOW REALLY calling for his arrest?

I swear, that’s how ODD it’s all been, and so often, it’s gone beyond the absurd, and into the hilariously absurd. (seriously, all I can do is laugh sometimes).

Then again, I do get real pissed off as well. Especially with stuff like, “Obama is a Muslim and a closet Islamist, and he’s going to have us all reciting the Quar’an, and all of us women are gonna have to rap up in burqas, chadors, or hiijabs. (Maybe all of them at the same time).

And what about Buchanan? Is he really calling for race wars in L.A.? Man oh man…another Charles Manson I always thought about him. As if there needed to be any stimulus for such. We’ve got a few of these Charlie Manson’s posting here at truthdig as well.

Anyway, I appreciate Eugene’s journalism as well. I only disagree with him, (slightly) in this piece, regarding Obama’s particular ‘stumbling block’ as he considers it to be the ‘experience’ thing. I’m not so sure he has any less than Hillary.

Admittedly, she’s held a US Senate position for longer than he has, and he’s still a Jr. Senator in that respect. But, he DID do some time in the Illinois State Senate, which I believe counts as experience in law making, and he’s done far, far more than she, with his legal profession. She’s been a corporate lawyer, but that was ‘way back in the day’, even if it WAS long enough to help represent George Bush when he screwed the investors of his Harken Oil company. So, I have a tendency to become annoyed with those who like to put Obama in the same ‘corporate bag’ as Hillary. In reality, he isn’t, because he just hasn’t been around long enough to be part of that ‘elite’, or the ‘old guard establishment’.

But, back to the experience thing. What about GW Bush? Now, that lack of ‘experience’ didn’t stop him. Seriously. The shrub had absolutely ZERO political experience, (except as a cheerleader for the Repugs a few decades ago) before Karl Rove got him the job as Governor of Texas.

Matter-of-fact, he basically came out of NOWHERE, even to get THAT job! I lived in Texas at the time, and nobody had ever heard of him. So, how did that happen? Now, he had that job for less than a full term, and he was really BAD at it. (I escaped right after he stole the Presidential election or Karl Rove stole it for him). Still, even when he started to run for that office, most Americans didn’t know who the hell he was either, at least not anybody outside of Texas. MORE people had heard of his brother, (though I didn’t know much about Jeb) and actually expected HIM to run for the office. At least he DID have some real experience.

But…not George Bush. He had virtually NONE. So, that’s my only point about the supposed drawback for Obama. Next to George Bush, (the MBA with ZERO experience), Barack Obama is senior and well seasoned.

So, if they voted for George -twice- even if he didn’t actually win the election, enough people voted for him, for them to get away with the hijack, and it damn sure couldn’t have been because he had any EXPERIENCE. (other than bankrupting everything he touched or sneezed on).

So, it’s like you said, we don’t really KNOW what might happen. Anything could.

So, we’ll see. I hope…

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By cwhipps, February 1 at 2:02 am #
(43 comments total)

I wish Eugene Robinson owned MSNBC.

His analysis is consistently fair, and insightful. It’s so refreshing to hear someone argue rationally and patiently from a personal perspective.

This has been the ODDEST election season I can ever remember, and it’s giving punditry what must seem like a really long and hard look up it’s skirt.

We’ve had Chris Matthew’s nearly genuflect while performing his mea culpas to the Clinton campaign for underestimating them, Joe Scarborough delivering attack ad tag lines against the Republican frontrunner (John McCain: less jobs and more wars), Pat Buchanan calling daily for race wars in Los Angeles to aide Hillary Clinton, the New York chapter of NOW calling for Ted Kennedy (Ted Kennedy!) to be arrested for “gang banging” the woman candidate by endorsing her male opponent (she meant to say “gang raping”, but hey, when you’re being creative with vagina monologues...) and all the while, the pollsters are trying to cover their ass for unreliable predictions by blaming it all on “late breaking independant voters”.

It’s just pleasant to hear somebody say for once, “honestly, there’s no way to know what’s going to happen.”

Just what we needed after a generation of experts screwing up the country.

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