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Reports

NIE Report Paints Bleak Picture of Iraq

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Posted on Feb 2, 2007
NIE

A declassified version of the long-awaited new National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq has gone public. Its findings are grim: It says the term ” ‘civil war’ accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict.” Check out the document (.pdf file).

A key section of the report begins:

Iraqi society’s growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides’ ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism. Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this Estimate, the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006. If strengthened Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), more loyal to the government and supported by Coalition forces, are able to reduce levels of violence and establish more effective security for Iraq’s population, Iraqi leaders could have an opportunity to begin the process of political compromise necessary for longer term stability, political progress, and economic recovery.

  • Nevertheless, even if violence is diminished, given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene, Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation in the time frame of this Estimate.

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    By KurtisT, February 27, 2007 at 7:32 am #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    Canuck:

    Believe me when I say that many Americans have similar concerns. Yes it can happen to you is my first response. Take interest in your politics if you don’t already, and make sure that everyone that you know does as well. Ignorance is the tool of the current leaders in America, as is complacency. Not to worry, there are a sinificant number of Americans who understand your concerns, we will not rest until America is restored to its true promise. Unfortunately, until then people are dying, including our own. I truly believe that Bush means well, he just has a differnet perspective on life then I and many others do. Take care for this perspective is not indigenous to America in my opinion, but the human condition. Long live democracy, pluralism, and respect for human rights; I living in the ‘Bible Belt’ USA should know about challenges to these ideals.

    Report this

    By Eleanore Kjellberg, February 13, 2007 at 12:22 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    Letter to the Nation, a “true believer” such as yourself, will always be disappointed in a culture vacuous of principles.  A society which values self-preservation, and sees morality as a weakness can only construct the kind of political system that has disappointed you.

    Selfishness and self-interest is so endemic to our politics that it reeks with the smell of rotten garbage. To successfully machinate the political labyrinth, politicians must capitulate to the realm of whoredom—-they only worship narcissism and wealth;  it’s impossible to serve two masters—-they can never serve themselves and their constituency. 

    Organized methods are necessary to shakedown enough cash to run for office, thus creating the political lies, deception, and malaise that has “let down” Ms. Letter to the Nation.  But, perhaps,  politics has always been the realm of whores and hucksters, convincing propaganda is all part of this “game”-—if the propaganda is convincing we are duped, and we feel good; hence, we can believe and trust, however, it is important for each of us to become discerning citizens-—ignorance is NOT bliss.

    Report this

    By Bert, February 11, 2007 at 2:24 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    If Iraq is as big a cluster as has been illustrated above, when’s the impeachment start?

    Report this

    By Anonymous Canuck, February 7, 2007 at 7:03 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    Whoever you are, “LETTER TO THE NATION”, you are my new hero. I’m a Canadian who has been staring south of the border for the last six years scratching my head, wondering if all you Americans have gone completely stark raving mad.

    Canada is the “little brother” of the USA—after all, we share the same parent. And as a little brother, many of us have been mulling over the question: how do you tell your big brother that he’s drunk, abusive, and belligerent?

    The French, Italians, the Germans, everyone, everybody around the world is looking at you now and is scared. What will you do next, we wonder? Who will you attack, who will you kill, who will you imprison? What country will you next reduce to rubble? How many civilians will die this time? What fiction will you create to justify it? Can we try to stop you, or do we get labelled as enemies for trying to reason with you?

    And always, ever, the underlying question: how did the citizens of a democracy end up living under a mad dictator? Can it happen to us, too?

    I can’t even imagine what it’s like to be a conscientious American right now. But it’s nice to know there’s at least one. Good luck to you, whoever you are.

    Report this

    By Steve Hammons, February 7, 2007 at 5:25 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    We have had intelligence report after intelligence report prior to and after 9/11 and the invasion and occupation of Iraq.

    Some were twisted, some were more honest, most seem a combination of good intelligence gathering and political ass-kissing to the people in power.

    Unfortunately, the integrity of our intelligence services seems to have been severely degraded during the Bush-Cheney administration.

    For more on these topics, the article below may be of interest:

    ‘Intelligence failures’ prior to 9/11, Iraq war: Planned strategies?

    Steve Hammons
    American Chronicle
    October 31, 2005

    http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/viewArticle.asp?articleID=3367

    Report this

    By LETTER TO THE NATION, February 5, 2007 at 12:18 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    I no longer believe in America. 
    As kids we used to believe in America. We believed in Thomas Jefferson, Samuel Adams, Patrick Henry, Paul Revere. We believed in Everett Dirksen, Sam Ervin, Robert Kennedy. We even believed Richard Nixon had a world vision in spite of his other flaws.
    In spite of knowing full well that this government could not be trusted, at this eleventh hour of the war in Iraq I only now realize that I have been foolishly trusting the accuracy of the body counts of the dead and wounded Americans in Iraq. Why? It is not likely that we have ever been told the truth about anything relating to the war.
    And what are our newly elected leaders doing about the war?
    They are partying.
    Nancy Pelosi—in spite of the confidence invested in her, in spite of the fact that she seems sincere and believable—is betraying our trust. At the most recent gathering of Democrats, she was smiling, clapping her hands, mollifying and placating the president. The president who should be standing before an international tribunal accused of crimes against humanity. Pelosi for some reason feels it necessary to show obeisance to a man who is setting fire to the planet. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is flirting with the Israeli lobbies and attending the latest AIPAC conventicle in Manhattan. The Democrats are having a grand old time.
    I am not a believer, but I wonder what believers are thinking. Do they really believe in a just God? If so, what do they think HE is thinking? Does their just God see the Iraqi father who is bleeding on a rusted cot in Baghdad as his child is being wrapped in a dirty table cloth, having been mutilated by yet another explosion?
    And what are Americans doing while their president is setting fire to the world?
    They are partying.
    150 million of them are at the Super Bowl. Most of the rest are surfing the internet for pornography. Some of the rest are riding around aimlessly in their SUV’s or monster trucks looking for another saloon, and the rest of the rest are at the mall. And all this, Hillary, while Palestinian children are being slaughtered by a nation favored by a just God.
    Maybe we should tremble at the thought of a just God.
    I no longer believe in America.
    Vladimir Putin was right to be puzzled when he observed the fact that we continually applaud ourselves. Who does that? We gather together and chant USA! USA! USA! We smile and congratulate ourselves on being the greatest nation on earth. Our politicians slap each other on the back and agree to disagree. That is about the only thing they agree on, other than the fact that they like to take it slow in doing the work of the people.
    But they smile prettily as they take it slow. They smile prettily as they do nothing.

    I spent the last 6 years of my life in efforts to oppose our illegitimate president. I spent my life, my soul, my time, my resources and my husband’s hard-earned money. No more.
    We are a nation of slobs. We see as far as our fat chins. We are looking for the next meal in our favorite restaurant, the next beer, the next TV show, the next puff, the next opportunity to brag. We have nothing of which to be proud anymore.
    No, I don’t believe in America. Or Jefferson, or Revere, or Patrick Henry, or Abigail Adams, or Thomas Paine. I no longer believe in any of it.

    Report this

    By Moe Hare, February 4, 2007 at 8:34 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    Headless you are not cynical, you’re accurate.

    Report this

    By epicrumiates, February 4, 2007 at 8:05 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    Seems to me that, ultimately, the only people we have been killing in Iraq are Iraqi’s, i.e., the people we were supposed to be bringing “Democracy” and “Liberty” to.
      If we stay in Iraq, this killing will only continue.  If we leave Iraq, people fear that the inter-Muslim-faction warring will continue—- which it most likely will.
      Many US citizens think that it’s immoral for us to leave Iraq because the internal fighting will continue, but it seems to me that it’s more immoral to stay in Iraq and kill the people we’re supposedly there to protect—- and even more immoral to demand that our troops support this morally indefensible action.  Furthermore, our mere presence there also exacerbates this inter-faction fighting.
      What should we do?  Contrary to the most recent politically-correct belief, I think we should cease all but purely defensive military actions—- meaning: wait until whomever actually attacks a US installation and then repel the attack.  Nothing more, nothing less.
      The next thing we should do ASAP is to pull our troops out of Iraq and then let Iraq handle Iraq’s internal problems themselves.  This turmoil was always inevitable—- we just facilitated its beginning at a time sooner than it would have happened naturally like, perhaps, when Saddam passed away in another decade or two.
      Maybe, before we abandon their country, we can go back to the UN and do a mea-culpa and ask for UN forces to aid the Iraqi government in whatever way(s) they determine will be most effective.
      Lastly, we could work with the Iraqi government, the UN, and NGO’s to funnel money that would have been spent on the war anyway (the latest projection is that Bush wants $200 to $250 billion through 2008!) into Iraq to restore the infrastructure we blew into a million bits and still haven’t been able or willing to restore/rebuild 4 years later…. and maybe we could even funnel some of that money back into our own infrastrucutre as well: health care, education, Katrina, etc.
      Screw the “surge” and pursue the “purge”, I say.

    Report this

    By Dale Headley, February 4, 2007 at 4:55 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    Despite the stark and depressing scenario presented in the NIE, George Bush - given time - will achieve “victory”.  How?  By killing enough Iraqis that too few will be left alive to prevent him from turning the country over - lock, stock, and barrel - to Exxon-Mobil, Shell, Hallibuton, and the other corporations who issue his marching orders.

    Report this

    By HeadlessHessian, February 3, 2007 at 11:02 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    So..what else is new?  We all knew this.  We did not need an NIE to tell us.  We know this president is a F*&^ up.  But yet folks voted him and Darth in back in 2004.  why?  Cause most americans are idiots.  That is why.  Bumbling, stupid, uneducated masses.  They dont follow politics, they dont follow world affairs.  Most have no clue about much, except on Monday mornings when they spew all the sports crap of the following weekend or they gossip about what some movie star wore during their self congratulatory shows. 

    So..do most americans care what the NIE says?  Most american probably think the NIE is some Hockey organization.

    Sorry, feeling a bit synical here.  Great country..chuck full of .... well you know… americans, us.  grin 

    Headless

    Report this

    By dick, February 3, 2007 at 1:56 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    Not to worry. The neocons managing Bush are delighted with the mayhem they have caused and look forward to much more to come in Iran. It’s all in Israel’s best interest, they think.

    Report this

    By Jkoch, February 3, 2007 at 1:37 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    Bleak NIE?  Heck, why worry?  Bush has won.  Think about it.  The Democrats dare not cut funds and bring ‘em home.  The “surge” will postpone any troop reductions.  At best, the Shiite militias will go on holiday and hope we clean Sunnis out of Baghdad for them. Two years will go by with no real improvement.  The real mess will not transpire until 2009.  “Not on my watch,” Bush will smirk from Crawford.  “Besides, didn’t the Dow reach a record high during my term? Heh, heh.”  Memories will be short.  A well-endowed W Foundation will pay pundits to burnish his legacy.  The cabinet and big brass will all sit comfy on boards of big institutions.  Vets will buy into a legend that Murtha or Pelosi was the culprit.

    Report this

    By DennisD, February 3, 2007 at 12:19 am #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    A bleak picture in Iraq - how about in the good old USA. Our future is no better with these fools running the show. What the hell is holding up Bu$h Inc.‘s impeachment other than our neutered non-binding Congress. Unless it involves spending other people’s money these pathetic representatives of the corporate world are worse than useless.

    Report this

    By Quy Tran, February 2, 2007 at 9:59 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    Our King has been pushed into dead end without way out and exactly likes Iraq “civil war”. It meant he and Cheney have “civil war” against each other.

    Should we need him to stay still in his throne any longer ?

    Report this

    By deZ, February 2, 2007 at 8:31 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    The boy who cried wolf doesn’t have that much time. That’s why he will invade Iran sometime in April,May.

    Report this

    By Terry1, February 2, 2007 at 8:29 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    I feel that Bush has a real mess on his hands.  He must cut and run there is no win in this war.

    Report this

    By Moe Hare, February 2, 2007 at 8:26 pm #
    (Unregistered commenter)

    NIE Report Paints Bleak Picture of Iraq—I don’t think the NIE needed a crystal ball to make that assessment; but what we do need is some politicians with REAL BALLS to put an end to this war.

    Report this

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