LOGO: Truthdig: Drilling Beneath the Headlines. A Progressive Journal of News and Opinion. Editor, Robert Scheer. Publisher, Zuade Kaufman. Winner 2013 Webby Awards for Best Political Website
May 24, 2013

 Choose a size
Text Size

Trending:     chris hedges     economy     elizabeth warren     politics     robert scheer
Most Read

How to Make a Million Dollars an Hour

Colbert Slams PBS for Appeasing Koch Brothers

Obama Heckled During Speech, Warren Lands a Book Deal, and More

Three Questions Left Unanswered by Obama’s Counterterrorism Speech

A Call to Action

Most Comments
Most Emailed

Reports
 * NEW! * New York City’s Summers May Heat Up
 * NEW! * A Mission on Climate Change

Ear to the Ground

A/V Booth

Arts & Culture
A Call to Action
Act of Congress

Digs

Truthdig Bazaar
Dissent: Voices of Conscience

Dissent: Voices of Conscience

By Colonel (Ret.) Ann Wright and Susan Dixon
$15.00

more items

 
Reports

It’s Not Just the War, Stupid

Email this item Email    Print this item Print    Share this item... Share

Posted on Nov 9, 2006
Voting mom
AP / Peter M. Fredin

Matthew Orecchio, 7, and his sister Emily, 5, watch their mother, Angela, vote Tuesday on an electronic ballot machine in Milliken, Colo.

By David Moore

There can be little doubt that public disaffection with the war in Iraq was a major factor in the Democratic tsunami that rolled over the country this past Election Day.

Indeed, the emerging consensus appears to be that the Democratic victory in Election 2006 was due primarily to public rejection of the war in Iraq. On “NBC Nightly News” the evening after the election, Brian Williams opened the program by making just such a declaration. Robin Toner of The New York Times wrote the day after the election that “this was a nationalized election, and Mr. Bush and Iraq were at the center of it.”  On CNN, Bill Schneider cited election night exit poll results that purported to show voters identifying Iraq as the single most important determinant of their vote.

And President Bush reinforced the interpretation, noting at his press conference the day after the election that he recognized voters were not satisfied with the level of progress in Iraq, and that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was resigning so the president could get a set of “fresh eyes” to evaluate the administration’s strategy in the war.

Before conventional wisdom coalesces around the notion that this was an antiwar election, it’s worthwhile to consider what other factors contributed to the rejection of Republican rule. Even as Schneider identified Iraq as the most important issue based on the exit poll, a graph on the screen behind him showed other issues measured by the same poll to be more important. Schneider’s co-anchor, Paula Zahn, noted the discrepancy and wondered aloud whether the percentages weren’t reversed, because Iraq was the least frequently mentioned issue among the four on the chart. It was an awkward moment for Schneider, CNN’s public opinion guru, because the polling data contradicted the framework he was trying to put around the election.

The exit poll Schneider mentioned was conducted election night by the National Election Pool, the consortium of five networks and the Associated Press that funds the election night projection system. A representative sample of more than 13,000 voters from around the country was interviewed as the people exited from their voting stations. Among other things, voters were asked how important each of several issues was to their vote. The results are instructive:

election chart

Advertisement

The three most often cited issue areas are corruption/ethics, the economy, and terrorism. Forty-one percent of the voters said corruption was “extremely” important to their vote, and 33 percent more said “very” important—for a total of 74 percent. Note that Iraq comes in fifth behind “value issues” when we rank-order the items by the percentage who say “extremely” important (35 percent), and it comes in fourth if we rank-order the items by the percentage who say either “extremely” or “very” important (67 percent).

Probably more significant to the interpretation of these results is the fact that all of the issue areas, except for the Saddam Hussein verdict, are deemed “important” by about six in 10 voters or more. In other words, this was not a one-issue election, but rather a multi-issue election, with no doubt many more issues of concern to the voters than were included on the exit poll questionnaire.

The nature of the public’s message was perhaps best captured in a brief television story on “NBC Nightly News” the day after the election when people in a Missouri restaurant were asked why the Democrats won. Most of the comments were general in nature, about the “mess” in Washington and about how things weren’t being done. When pressed about the Iraq war, one person acknowledged, “Well, that didn’t help.” I got the same feeling from these exchanges that I get from the exit poll results—that there were simply “a whole lot of issues” that people felt were not being adequately addressed by Congress and the president, and the war in Iraq was just one of them.

More fundamentally, the election appears to be a widespread rejection of the Republican Party’s performance in the past several years—in areas that include Katrina, Iraq, torture, corruption, scandals, the economy, energy, the environment and the federal budget. To bill the election as antiwar is to miss the significance of the electoral rout.

We don’t need polls to be convinced that the Democratic victories across the country were more about Republicans than about any specific issue area. In my own home state of New Hampshire, Democrats succeeded in winning not only both congressional districts, a historic achievement by itself, but in making the whole state government Democratic (House, Senate, governor and executive council) for the first time in over a century and a half. According to The New York Times, Democrats made significant gains in many other states as well, reflecting a general voter disgruntlement with Republicans at the local level similar to the rejection of the GOP at the national level. The local issues were clearly not the Iraq war, but more broadly a loss of confidence in the Republicans to govern.

If we had to boil the election to just one phrase, it might well be the one used frequently by Carol Shea-Porter in the 1st Congressional District in New Hampshire. No one expected her to beat popular incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley. Her television ads were sparse, and they were always positive about what she would do—not one attack ad about her opponent. In her appearances in homes throughout the district, her closing phrase always elicited a strongly positive reaction: “I’ll go to Washington to represent the other 99 percent of us.” With its indirect reference to the Bush tax cuts that disproportionately benefit the upper 1 percent in income, the promise encapsulated the frustration of voters who felt the Republicans were just not representing them anymore on a whole range of issues.

We’ve seen other public rejections of one party or another throughout American history, with 1994 the most recent such experience for the Democrats, when no war contributed to their ouster. This time, the Democrats promise a different approach to governing and to dealing with congressional corruption, much as the Republicans did when they won 12 years ago. The voters are watching.


Shifts in the Youth Vote Bode Well for Democrats

In Election 2006, voters under the age of 30 once again showed more support for Democrats than did older voters. According to the exit polls on election night by the National Election Pool (the network consortium of the five networks and the Associated Press), 60 percent of young people voted for a Democratic congressional candidate, compared with 52 percent of older people. In Election 2004, young voters also gave more support to the Democratic candidates by about eight percentage points—55 percent, compared with 47 percent Democratic support among older voters.

A new study by Young Voter Strategies suggests even more good news for the Democrats. Youth voter turnout increased from about 20 percent in 2002 to 24 percent in 2006. According to this study, the youth vote constituted about 13 percent of all voters, up by about two percentage points from 2002. The chart below illustrates the changes:

 

Midterm Election Youth Voter Turnout i

 

Youth Vote


Despite the improvement from the 2002 to the 2004 midterm elections, there is still a way to go before young people exert a force equal to their representation in the population at large. U.S. census statistics suggest that about 16 percent of the population is under age 30, compared with the 11 to 13 percent of the electorate that is under 30. 

In the presidential election of 2004, there was a higher turnout among young people than there typically is in midterm elections. According to the National Election Pool exit polls, 16 percent of the 2004 electorate was under the age of 30, comparable to the number of young people in the population as a whole.



iThe percentages of voters age 18-29 are obtained from national exit polls. The numbers of votes cast
are obtained from the Associated Press as of 9 a.m. the day following the election. Estimated voter turnout is obtained by taking the estimated number of votes cast and dividing it by the estimated population of 18 to 29-year-old citizens from the March Current Population Survey.

iiThis number is likely to increase over the next days and weeks due to absentee and provisional ballots. For example, in 2002 the vote tally for the House of Representatives on the day after the election rose by 10 million over the subsequent weeks. As the vote tally rises, youth turnout may rise somewhat.



David W. Moore, a writer and polling consultant, recently retired as senior editor at the Gallup Poll, where he worked from 1993 until 2006. For over 20 years prior to that, he was a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire.

Moore recently completed his second two-year term on the governing council of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, the foremost organization of public opinion pollsters in the country. He is the author, most recently, of “How to Steal an Election: The Inside Story of How George Bush’s Brother and FOX Network Miscalled the 2000 Election and Changed the Course of History.”

Moore’s homepage is davidwmoore.us


New and Improved Comments

If you have trouble leaving a comment, review this help page. Still having problems? Let us know. If you find yourself moderated, take a moment to review our comment policy.

By Lily Maskew, November 13, 2006 at 10:05 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

This election gives hope that our country can get on the right track again.  We need to get out of the old patterns of solving problems.  We need people with new ideas who can think innovatively.  Going to war only puts off problems for another day.  We need to find ways to eliminate poverty world wide, and learn some semlence of tolerance for other human beings.

Report this

By Jeanne, November 12, 2006 at 9:39 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

I can tell you another factor. We had a do nothing congress on the federal level and the same held in my state of MN. Both gain Democratic majority this year. The people, I believe, have had it. We need to move in a forward direction. We are wages at a 1958 level? Why are we not moving ahead on cars that are more fuel efficent? Why aren’t we taking a VERY serious look at national health care when even big business is begging for it? There are so many problems that need to be addressed and the Republicans kept talking about the downfall of marriage because a few gays want to marry. In MN the Democrats finally had it with the psuedo issue of gay marriage and refused to discuss it. They wanted action on things like education, property tax relief, transportation, and they got voted in.

Report this

By Counter-astonished, November 11, 2006 at 6:46 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

E S Mitman writes (Comment #37465):

“It’s astonishing to me that people think the Democrats will be less corrupt (and inept) than the Republicans. They’re all politicians; there really isn’t that much difference from one to another.”

It’s astonishing to me that you can think this way, after Iraq and Katrina.

No party is perfect. but there are DEGREES of corruption and ineptitude, you know.

How old are you? Do you even REMEMBER what life was like before the catastrophe of the Bush administration and GOP one-party rule?

Report this

By Steve Harness, November 10, 2006 at 9:30 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

If either party adopted Robert M. Thacker’s list of what the country needs as its platform for the next election campaign, its victory would be a tsunami rivaling or even exceeding Franklin Roosevelt’s 1936 win.  It is virtually identical to lists I have posted from time to time and distills exactly what observant and rational Americans perceive as what is needed to secure America’s future.  And, yes, campaign financing reform must be added to the list.

Report this

By Evergreen, November 10, 2006 at 5:35 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

The comment by #37470 by Robert M. Thacker says a lot…

but

first and foremost we must include campaign finance reform (politics should not just be for the super rich or corporate backed)..that is too limiting…look at all the rich idiots that installs.

And get rid of all that ideological nonsense in government (religion…specifically one religion)
Our founders fought very hard to keep us from repeating the mistakes of Europe…and now some of our populace wants to go back in time by creating theocracies?

Evergreen

Report this

By Megan, November 10, 2006 at 2:39 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

To Bo,
I read a distrubing report in the newspaper that
Governor Jeb Bush made a face at a crowd that
became so incensed that he had to go back in
and hide in the janitors closet until the crowd
disappeared.  That was my laff of the day.
Not all Republicans are like that, maybe it’s just
a family trait. What say?

Report this

By J H, November 10, 2006 at 1:46 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

My Analysis:

The one individual who put them over the top in the Senate was Jon Stewart. Who else has raised awareness of politics in the youth demographic as much? I believe I saw that the voting rate under 30 went up about 20%!

Report this

By dan, November 10, 2006 at 1:19 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

The war is an international crime, but it is only one debacle among many. As costly and evil as it is, it may not even have the worst long term effect on our country.

Of course, the long term effects on the Iraqis will be horrendous, but the US can, and probably will, walk away from it.

We cannot escape the huge burden of debt that this administration has left us with, and there are so many other ways in which this administration has failed.

Bush isn’t really responsible: He’s just an empty suit. The real culprits are Rove and Cheney and Gonzalez and Rumsfeld.

When will Rove and Cheney pay for the crimes they’ve committed?

Report this

By hobo, November 10, 2006 at 1:00 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

This election accomplished what I wanted - W got checked and balanced.

Report this

By felicity, November 10, 2006 at 12:53 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Perhaps I wasn’t delusional afterall, specifically, I WAS hearing one thing while seeing a contradictory thing. 

All the time the media megaphoners were shouting that it was the war that lost the Repub’s the election, charts kept popping up as background, or even foreground, showing the war fourth or fifth on the list of voter “reasons.”

So, yet again, the question comes up are the media sloppy, careless, inept, inaccurate…or, is there a method to their madness. In this case, why keep pushing dissatisfaction with the war to explain election outcomes?  Any guesses?

Report this

By MARIAM RUSSELL, November 10, 2006 at 12:37 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

$1000.00 taxes
-$285.00 military
-$187.00 intrest on debt
-$41.00 education
-$37.00 VETERANS BENEFITS
-$3.00   job training

After the first two, dosen´t leave much for the care of a nation of 300,000,000 people, does it?

After a while we have to wonder if we took half of the military budget and spent it on education and job training, and maybe health care. We could be in danger of becoming a decent society again…...we might even get the rats out of the veteran´s hospitals! And maybe get the vets into decent places to live, with the meds they need, good food, someone to help when it is needed.

WE COULD ALSO TAX, HEAVILY ANY CORP WHO DECIDES TO MOVE PRODUCTION TO A SLAVE LABOR COUNTRY AND STOP THE PRACTICE OF SLAVE LABOR IN OUR OWN PRISONS.

IF A JOB IS WORTH DOING IT IS WORTHY OF PROVIDING A LIVING WAGE TO THE DOER. IF THAT MEANS THE CEO DOES NOT GET TO MAKE $30,000,000, WHILE HIS PRODUCERS MAKE $30,000, AND IT DOES, THEN THAT IS RIGHT FOR THE USE OF OUR COUNTRY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF HIS OPPORTUNITIES. iF HE IS NOT HAPPY WITH THAT, THEN IT IS A BIG WORLD OUT THERE, GO FIND SOMEWHERE WHERE THE BENEFITS OF WORKING 12 HOUR DAYS FOR LITTLE PAY, LITTLE BENEFITS, AND MINISCULE OR NO FUTURE, SO THAT YOU CAN BE RICH IS MORE ATTRACTIVE TO THE POPULATION.   

      WOW!!!!!WHAT AN IDEA!!!!!DO YOU
    SUPPOSE IT´S TIME HAS COME?????

Report this

By Vernon Cole, November 10, 2006 at 11:44 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Everybody I read neglects to mention the voter non turnout.  When reading the election results in the Joplin Globe I notice that the voter turnout in SW Missouri was down by as much as 10% in strong Republican areas.  This contributed to the loss of Talent.

The Republican politicians failed to respond to request from their base to get tough on illegal immigration.  The Republican base responded by ignoring the voter turnout drive by the party leaders.  Their base stayed home rather than vote for leadership that chose to ignore them.

Report this

By LucysGranddaughter, November 10, 2006 at 10:00 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Terrorism, too, is hard to separate from the war….anybody think the administration’s science policy—notably absent from the polling list—affected votes this year?

Report this

By Robert M. Thacker, November 10, 2006 at 7:36 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

An Open Letter to President Bush and Speaker Pelosi

Dear Mr. President and Speaker Pelosi,

The people have spoken…

·      We are a government of the people, by the people, and for the people

·      Defend our Constitution and Bill of Rights

·      Get the hell out of Iraq and bring our brave soldiers home

·      Keep our jobs at home and stop the outsourcing

·      Find and fund clean energy alternatives that will lead to our energy independence

·      Seal our borders and fine employers who hire illegal aliens

·      Provide affordable healthcare insurance and benefits to all Americans

·      Demand and enforce fair trade policies which protect American workers

·      Hold yourself and congress accountable for their actions

·      Curb corporations and lobbyists influence and control over our legislators

·      Increase the minimum wage

·      Spend our tax dollars judiciously by investing wisely in our future

·      Promote and support a nation of learners and innovators

·      Become a world leader by becoming a world example and participant

·      Curb the influence of the military industrial complex

·      Focus on the common good, rather than splinter issues

I do hope you both have listened and will work together to achieve these goals.

Regards,

Robert M. Thacker

Atlanta, GA

Report this

By E S Mitman, November 10, 2006 at 6:53 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

It’s astonishing to me that people think the Democrats will be less corrupt (and inept) than the Republicans. They’re all politicians; there really isn’t that much difference from one to another.

Report this

By Ken Mitchell, November 10, 2006 at 6:30 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

While I opposed going into Iraq from day one, that wasn’t the only issue for me either. I was in computers. So many computer jobs went “off shore”. Bush said that this was good for the country. I disagree. I also disagree on illegals. They don’t do work that Americans won’t, they just do it cheaper. I also oppose using eminent domain to build malls. Bush got the land to build the Texas Rangers’ stadium that way. While Republicans profess to oppose this, the beneficiaries of this are usually republican.

Report this

By Anthony Bono, November 10, 2006 at 5:29 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

I actually find this heartening.  IMHO, I think Iraq is a symptom of this corruption to the ‘Nth degree.  Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I hope this can be a green light for the Dems to put on their gum-shoes and start rooting out the hogs.

Report this

By John F. Butterfield, November 10, 2006 at 4:22 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

The Republicans did very well in the elections considering their governmental track record for the last 6 years. The Democrats need to win more hearts and minds before 2008.

Report this

By Montie Shields USAF RET., November 10, 2006 at 1:30 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Maybe more people are realizing that going to
War with Iraq was un-necessary. Bush wanted
revenge on Saddam Hussein. Plus ideas of being
another Eisenhower. In fact I saw an article
whose headline was: Ex-Hussein political adv-
iser claim Iraq accepted Bush’s ultimatum bef-
ore invasion.
Something else much of the trouble in Iraq
during the early eighties was because the
Shiites attempted to Assassinate Saddam. Guess
who the Bush Administration set up to run the
Country. They are judge, jury, and executioner.
If they stretch old Saddam’s neck in a hurry,
and there comes a time investigations come
about. Old Saddam won’t be around to tell tales.

Report this

By roberto, November 10, 2006 at 1:27 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

All the various issues and their dysfunction can be said to be symptoms of the same disease… rampant corruption, greed and a cynical disregard for truth and for having an honest dialog.

The country was most definitely on the wrong track and this election did no less than restore hope for the preservation of the Republic and the Constitution we all hold dear.

Report this

By refocus, November 9, 2006 at 11:23 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

how about the issue that no poll will touch?  separation of church and state (or lack thereof)-hopefully, there will be restoration of this “fundamental” tenet.

Report this

By Gonnuts, November 9, 2006 at 10:54 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Want to shake things up?

Here’s what you do.

I have no problem getting on C-Span once a week, maybe more. This is a national audience. I always manage to bring the substance of the conversation back to 9/11. After all 9/11 is the “lynch pin” for everything.

If everyone reading this would do the same, I’m estimating 10 to 20% of the calls being broadcast nationally would focus light on the most outrageous crime ever committed upon the American public. In the last CNN poll 84% of those asked said they did NOT believe the “official” version of 9/11.

84% !!!

Call! If enough questions are asked the truth must be told.

“Those who are truthful, nonviolent and brave do not cease to be so because of the stupidity of their leader.” Gandhi.

Report this

By Bo, November 9, 2006 at 9:36 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Trouble is all the ills of the Republicans are magnified out of proportion by the media and similarly the ills of the Democrats are hidden..so that we keep re-electing Mel Reynolds, Gerry Studds, Marion Barry, Ted Kennedy, Barney Frank, William Jefferson, etc etc no matter what they’ve done. So how is anyone to know the truth if that is where they get their information?

For example, recent AP story on robo-calls in NH that ranted about the GOP all over the USA. Those calls were also done by Democrats (I know because I reported it) but no one talked about it at all! My complaint was ignored, but the one against the GOP picked up and sent out nationwide.

Not that the they did it too is an excuse, but at least it brings some balance to the argument.

And your local Senate/House in your state, doesn’t vote on the war in DC. So why punish them for example in NH where they have kept the state the very BEST since 1922? Doesn’t make sense.

I just hope NH has learned its lesson. The avg man on the street has no idea his state reps have nothing to do with the war or anything of that nature.

Report this

By D.H.Fabian, November 9, 2006 at 9:23 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

It is my hope that, sometime soon, the subject of US poverty will be addressed—-not as it was when the government raided the funds formerly used for humanitarian aid (i.e., welfare), but an honest examination of America’s shameful levels of poverty. At least, there was some mention of the working poor durin the recent elections, and that’s a vitally important start: the majority of America’s poor are working. Yet we continue to turn our backs on so many of those who, due to illness, disability or circumstances, are not able to work.
    The US, while crowing (yet complaining) about it’s “high welfare benefits” did, in fact, provide benefits that were far below that of most Western industrialized nations, and the range of welfare programs (especially those related to education and jobs)were almost always grossly substandard, often punitive.
    The government ran an excellent propaganda campaign demonizing the poor, over a period of at least 10 years leading up to the 1996 “reforms”.
It worked, and if the average American thinks of the poor at all, it is often with contempt.  Meanwhile, the life expectancy of America’s poor now equals that of the poor in many Third World nations (hint: This is not an easy way to die, so we might concude that people aren’t poor as a matter of “lifestyle choice”.)
    It would be good if we could stop turning our backs on our own fellow citizens.

Report this

By RRoth, November 9, 2006 at 7:48 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

I think most Americans were most concerned about American politicians.  The arrogance.  Lack of integrity.  Shrugging their duty to their constituency.  Fighting amongst themselves like children, name-calling, mud-slinging. And raising obscene amounts of campaign money to protect their jobs.  All this when they are “hired” by the American people to make this a better place for people to raise and educate their children.  Sad thing is, things aren’t going to change because, unlike Iraq, there’s a strong police force and military in this country to put down revolt as it did 40 years ago.  America is a happy accident that had a chance to be great and we blew it.  Think of it:  all this land inhabited by a few defenseless natives, a constitution to govern a few million people and only 13 states made up of mostly white Englishmen and a few French to ratify it.  Then came the military and police to keep order.  Iraq should be so lucky.  Might might make right, but this country is a caldron.  Washington had better start to listen.

Report this

By jimmy, November 9, 2006 at 7:15 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

The corruption is very difficult to seperate from the war because so much corruption went into the invasion in the first place.

Report this

By JW, November 9, 2006 at 5:30 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

“Despite the improvement from the 2002 to the 2004 midterm elections, there is still a way to go before young people exert a force equal to their representation in the population at large. U.S. census statistics suggest that about 16 percent of the population is under age 30, compared with the 11 to 13 percent of the electorate that is under 30.”

Shouldn’t that say “US census statistics suggest that about 16% of the population is between the ages of 18 and 30”?  Naturally people under the age of 18 can’t vote, so the 29 and younger bracket will always be under-represented in the elections.

Report this
Newsletter

sign up to get updates


 
 
 
 
Join the Liberal Blog Advertising Network
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

A Progressive Journal of News and Opinion. Editor, Robert Scheer. Publisher, Zuade Kaufman.
© 2013 Truthdig, LLC. All rights reserved.