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Fishing for a Pretext to Squeeze Iran

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Posted on Mar 13, 2006
iran_nuclear
Karen Spector

By Juan Cole

Editor’s Note: Truthdig’s Middle Eastern affairs expert argues that the Iranian nuclear issue “has not reached the point of crisis, and therefore other motivations must be sought for the Bush administration’s breathless rhetoric.”


UPDATE: On March 13, President Bush told an audience at George Washington University: “Coalition forces have seized IEDs and components that were clearly produced in Iran.... Such actions--along with Iran’s support for terrorism and its pursuit of nuclear weapons--are increasingly isolating Iran, and America will continue to rally the world to confront these threats.”

Bush’s allegations about the Iranians providing improvised explosive devices to the Iraqi guerrilla insurgency are bizarre. The British military looked into charges of improvised explosive devices coming from Iran, and this past January actually apologized to Tehran when no evidence pointed to Iranian government involvement. The guerrillas in Iraq are militant Sunnis who hate Shiites, and it is wholly implausible that the Iranian regime would supply bombs to the enemies of its Iraqi allies.

Although Bush charges Iran with “support for terrorism,” he seems unable to name any international terrorist incident of the past six years that can unambiguously be attributed to Iran.

His baldfaced accusation that Iran is in “pursuit of nuclear weapons” is, as we will see below, not proved either.

Bush’s vendetta against Iran is all the more invidious in light of the sweetheart deal he recently offered India, which never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.  A recent United Nations report says that India has been less than forthright about its enrichment programs, and that its procedures are inadequate to deter further proliferation. India dismisses the report. The Bush administration nevertheless has proposed changing U.S. law to permit the sale of nuclear technology to India.


Start of Original Essay:

Iran threatened last week to use the oil weapon if the United Nations Security Council imposes sanctions on the country because of its nuclear research program, promising “harm and pain” to the United States. In addition to consumer anxieties about oil prices, rumors of a planned U.S. or Israeli airstrike on Iran keep flying, and neighboring Iraqi Shiites have threatened reprisals if that is done to their brethren. What is driving the crisis between the Bush administration and Iran and ratcheting up the rhetoric?

Iranian Interior Minister Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi said on Friday, “If sanctions are imposed, we will definitely use the oil tool and other tools and we will stop at nothing.” The regime is clearly fearful of an international economic boycott, but feels it has its own advantages in the struggle. With increasing demand from India and China and instability in Nigeria and Iraq, Iran’s crude oil exports are important in maintaining an affordable price, especially in the winters. In some ways, by invading Iraq and destabilizing it, as well as fostering the rise of Shiite religious parties in Baghdad, the Bush administration has inadvertently strengthened Shiite Iran’s hand.

Although the doubling of petroleum prices in the past two years has so far been absorbed by the world economy, many analysts are convinced that if the price went up to $75 a barrel and stayed there for two years, it would add significantly to the underlying rate of inflation and begin subtracting 2.5% a year from world growth. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad chimed in with regard to the American threats: “They know that they are not capable of causing the least harm to Iranian people. They will suffer more.”


Iran is a mid-size country of some 70 million, with a per capita income of only about $2,000 a year. It has no weapons of mass destruction, and its conventional military forms no threat to the United States. From an Iranian point of view, the Americans are simply being unreasonably aggressive.  Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei has given a fatwa or formal religious ruling against nuclear weapons, and President Ahmadinejad at his inauguration denounced such arms and committed Iran to remaining a nonnuclear weapons state.

In fact, the Iranian regime has gone further, calling for the Middle East to be a nuclear-weapons-free zone. On Feb. 26, Ahmadinejad said: “We too demand that the Middle East be free of nuclear weapons; not only the Middle East, but the whole world should be free of nuclear weapons.” Only Israel among the states of the Middle East has the bomb, and its stockpile provoked the arms race with Iraq that in some ways led to the U.S. invasion of 2003. The U.S. has also moved nukes into the Middle East at some points, either on bases in Turkey or on submarines. 

Iran is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has allowed the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect and monitor its nuclear energy research program, as required by the treaty. It raised profound suspicions, however, with its one infraction against the treaty--which was to conduct some secret civilian research that it should have reported and did not, and which was discovered by inspectors. Tehran denies having military labs aiming for a bomb, and in November of 2003 the IAEA formally announced that it could find no proof of such a weapons program. The U.S. reaction was a blustery incredulity, which is not actually an argument or proof in its own right, however good U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton is at bunching his eyebrows and glaring.

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty allows Iran to develop civilian nuclear energy, and the United States itself urged Iran to build reactors in the 1970s. Iran does not have a heavy-water breeder reactor, which is the easy way to get a bomb. It does have light-water reactors for energy production, but these cannot be used to get enough fissionable material to make a bomb. Although Vice President Dick Cheney has made light of an oil state seeking nuclear energy, it would be a rational economic policy to use nuclear energy for domestic needs and sell petroleum on the world market. Certainly, the NPT permits such a policy. 

The difficulty for those concerned with proliferation is that for Iran to independently run its light-water reactors, it needs to complete the fuel cycle of uranium enrichment. The ability to produce nuclear fuel is only one step away from the ability to refine uranium further, to weapons-grade quality. Still, it is a step away and could not easily be done in secret with inspectors making visits. Iran is experimenting with refrigerator-size centrifuges as a means of enriching uranium, but would need 16,000, hooked up in a special way, to produce a bomb. It has 164, and one of its proposals to defuse the crisis with the U.S. is to limit itself to no more than 3,000. Otherwise, it says it ideally would have 50,000 centrifuges.

No signatory of the NPT that allows regular IAEA inspections has ever moved to the stage of bomb production. Inspections have been extremely effective tools. United Nations weapons inspectors discovered and dismantled Saddam Hussein’s weapons program after the Gulf War in the early 1990s. The IAEA was even able to detect trace plutonium on Iranian equipment that came from Pakistan, which manufactures bombs. Those who remain suspicious of Iran’s ultimate intentions are not completely without a case. But there is good reason to believe that Iran’s nuclear program could have been monitored successfully.

The Bush administration has arbitrarily taken the position that Iran may not have a nuclear research program at all, even a civilian one. This stance actually contradicts the guarantees of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Washington officials continually intimate to the press that Tehran has an active weapons program, which is speculation. And, of course, the United States itself is egregiously in violation of several articles of the NPT, keeping enough nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert to destroy the world several times over and actively pursuing new and deadly weapons, even dreaming of “tactical” nukes. Its ally in the region, Israel, never signed the NPT and was helped by the British to get a bomb in the 1960s.

The U.S.  National Intelligence Estimate released in summer 2005 estimates that if Iran did have an active nuclear weapons program, and if the international atmosphere were favorable to it being able to get hold of the requisite equipment, it would still be a good 10 years away from a bomb. But the international atmosphere is actively hostile to such a development, and anyway it has not been proved that there is such a weapons program. 

If the Supreme Jurisprudent of theocratic Iran has given a fatwa against nukes, if the president of the country has renounced them and called for others to do so, if the International Atomic Energy Agency has found no evidence of a military nuclear weapons program, and if Iran is at least 10 years from having a bomb even if it is trying to get one, then why is there a diplomatic crisis around this issue between the United States and Iran in 2006?

The answer is that the Iranian nuclear issue is dj vu all over again. As it did with regard to the Baath regime in Iraq, the militarily aggressive Bush administration wants to overthrow the government in Tehran. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, now in a coma, urged the U.S. to hit Iran as soon as it had taken care of Saddam Hussein. The Israelis have a grudge against it because it helped end their military occupation and land grab in southern Lebanon by giving aid to the Shiite Hezbollah organization, the only Arab force ever to succeed in regaining occupied land from Israel by military means. But Iran does not form a conventional military threat to Israel.

Overthrowing the theocratic regime in Iran, Washington hopes, would reduce Hezbollah pressure on Israel over its continued occupation of the Shebaa Farms area (and, implicitly, the Golan Heights). It would make Syria more complaisant toward Israel and Washington. It would open up Iran to investment and exploration on the part of the American petroleum majors, which are at the moment excluded because the U.S. slapped an economic boycott on Iran. It might remove support for the more hard-line elements among Shiite political parties in Iraq, making that country easier for the U.S. to shape and dominate. In short, a U.S.-installed regime in Iran would hold out the promise of returning to the halcyon 1960s, when the shah was an American puppet in the region.

The nuclear issue is for the most part a pretext for the Americans to exert pressure on the regime in Tehran. This is not to say that proliferation is not a worrisome issue, or that it can be ruled out that Iran wants a bomb. It is to say that the situation simply has not reached the point of crisis, and therefore other motivations must be sought for the Bush administration’s breathless rhetoric.

President Ahmadinejad, it should be freely admitted, has, through his lack of diplomatic skills and his maladroitness, given his enemies important propaganda tools. Unlike his predecessor, Mohammad Khatami, Ahmadinejad is a Holocaust denier. He went to an anti-Zionist conference and quoted Ayatollah Khomeini, saying that the “Occupation regime” must “vanish.” This statement about Israel does not necessarily imply violence. After all, Ariel Sharon made the occupation regime in the Gaza Strip vanish. The quote was translated in the international press, however, as a wish that “Israel be wiped off the map,” and this inaccurate translation has now become a tag line for all newspaper articles written about Iran in Western newspapers. 

In another speech, Ahmadinejad argued that Germans rather than Palestinians should have suffered a loss of territory for the establishment of a Jewish state, if the Germans perpetrated the Holocaust. This argument is an old one in the Middle East, but it was immediately alleged that Ahmadinejad was advocating the shipping of Israelis to Europe. That was not what he said.

It is often alleged that since Iran harbors the desire to “destroy” Israel, it must not be allowed to have the bomb. Ahmadinejad has gone blue in the face denouncing the immorality of any mass extermination of innocent civilians, but has been unable to get a hearing in the English-language press. Moreover, the presidency is a very weak post in Iran, and the president is not commander of the armed forces and has no control over nuclear policy. Ahmadinejad’s election is not relevant to the nuclear issue, and neither is the question of whether he is, as Liz Cheney is reported to have said, “a madman.” Iran has not behaved in a militarily aggressive way since its 1979 revolution, having invaded no other countries, unlike Iraq, Israel or the U.S.  Washington has nevertheless succeeded in depicting Iran as a rogue state.

A final issue between Iran and the United States that might explain the escalating rhetoric over nonexistent nukes is Iraq. The U.S. is bogged down in a quagmire there, fighting militant Sunni Arabs. But it has also seen its political plans for Iraq checked on several occasions by the rise of powerful Iraqi Shiite parties, such as the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), the Dawa Party, and the Sadr Movement. Iran hosted SCIRI and Dawa in exile in the Saddam years, and has close relations with them. There are allegations that it gives them money. 

To any extent that Iran has helped these parties win elections and maintain their paramilitary forces, it has undermined the American hope of installing a relatively secular figure as a Karzai-like ruler. The U.S. would very much like to limit Iranian influence in Iraq, and aggressiveness on the nuclear issue is a way for the Bush administration to enlist European and other countries in the effort to put pressure on Iran and make it cautious about intervening too forcefully in Iraqi affairs. 

In fact, the Shiite parties in southern Iraq are homegrown and would almost certainly have done well in elections without any Iranian support. The Americans are in some ways scapegoating Iran for their own failures of analysis. They appear to have been unaware of how popular the Shiite religious leaders had become in the late Saddam period, and so were unprepared for their strong showing in the U.S.-sponsored elections.

The United States has succeeded in bringing Iran before the United Nations Security Council, though it is unclear if that body will slap economic sanctions on Tehran. Such a move could be vetoed by Russia or China, both of which have high hopes of sharing in the Iranian oil bonanza. If an international boycott is imposed, it will mainly harm the civilians and children of Iran. The crisis has been fueled by Ahmadinejad’s alarming and foolish rhetoric, and by the clever aggressiveness of the Bush administration, which is better at framing its enemies than any other U.S. administration in history. 

Washington no longer has much leverage on Iran. Its military is bogged down in Iraq, and its diplomats are forbidden to speak to Tehran under most circumstances. Its attempt to prevent even a civilian Iranian nuclear energy program may convince the clerical hard-liners to pull their country out of the NPT and to end international inspections. If the Iranians really did want a bomb, they could not have asked for a better pretext to leave the NPT.  President Bush’s policies toward Iran have already failed, and could fail even more miserably in the months to come.

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Comment Pages: «1 2

By Erik, March 14, 2006 at 12:54 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Wayne’s comments pretty much say it all—the proper American attitude is might makes right. Power politics, pure and simple. There are no standards of conduct—only the use of power with occasional diplomacy if it might achieve the same results.

That is why Wayne can seemingly avoid a few other salient facts: that the Americans overthrew an elected government of Iran in 1953 and kept a rather unpopular Shah at the head of the country for 25 years.  But all Wayne can see are American hostages.  And about that Saddam character: the man was responsible for killing quite a number of Iraqi citizens, no doubt.  But when was that actually happening?  Some of the worst of it was in the early 80’s, and the US knew about it, and didn’t care.  In fact, Reagan was only too happy to take Iraq off the list of countries sponsoring terrorism, either in 1982 or ‘83.  But, but, but, but—this man was killing his own people!

Why don’t people like Wayne just give up the pretense of law and admit that power is its own justification?

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By Afshin, March 14, 2006 at 12:26 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Here is the link to Ahmadinejad’s speech in Farsi as some here requested:

http://www.president.ir/farsi/ahmadinejad/speeches/138 4/aban-84/840804sahyonizm.htm

All who know Farsi know what it means. 

Thanks for Dr. Cole clarifying it.  The word by word translation “The regime that is occupying Jerusalem should be cleared from being present [or existance]”

There is nothing in it that says anything about map or country of Israel.

The translation (not word by word right) is here

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/30/weekinreview/30iran. html?ex=1142485200&en=60861e175f00885c&ei=5070

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By searp, March 14, 2006 at 12:24 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

I have never understood why the Iranians have been off limits for all these years.  I know about the embassy hostages, and was as outraged as anyone else.  I know about Iranian covert ops (read Bob Baer’s book, it is good).  However, it seems to me that we simply make things worse at this point by refusing to have normal diplomatic relations.  We end up creating another Cuba.  Regime change didn’t work there, and it won’t work in Iran.

It is easy to distrust the Iranians on nuclear technology, harder to understand why anyone would think that the first option, the very first option, is military action.  Why not do a Nixon goes to China thing?

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By Ali, March 14, 2006 at 12:15 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

A okay article to begin with. All usa media is run by few, only 2 political party running usa, and both supported by AIPAC so who ever pleases AIPAC will certainly be next president and control the senate and house. USA is digging a big hole, and poor soldiers are paying the price with there life. Regarding Iran, if the religious leaders has openly condemed nuclear weapons, then rest assured they will not make one. Probably that’s the reason why USA is so bold, knowing Iran has not one and will not have one. Try your luck with north korea or india. Poor Iran, I feel sorry for that country.

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By Afshin, March 14, 2006 at 11:51 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

Hi James, There was no undeclared nuclear projects in Iran.  The only violation of NPT that is attributed to Iran is a small enrichment of uranium apparently to test some enrichment equipment which based on Iranian claim they forgot or didnt know they had to declare.  A technical voilation at best.  Since then it has come out that Egypt and South Korea did similar things recently, in case of South Korea the enrichment was to the level of highly enrichment(HEU). In Iran’s case the enrichment was low level and in miligrams I think.

IAEA (and US) were aware of all the sites and infrastructure Iran was intending to build.  As a matter of fact the Isfahan and Natanz sites were contracted to be buid by Chinese and Russians but under US pressure they canceled the contracts in the 90’s.  Iran decided to build those sites on their own and they did so, they were under no obligation to report building those sites until they were ready to introduce fissionable materials. Although they build these sites secretly, they didnt violate any agreement.  The reason they give why they build them secretly is because US would have done something to prevent them to finish. They actually beleieve US broke its commitment to NPT by pressuring Russia and China from completing those projects.  There is alot more about all of these written by Dr. Gordon Prather.

Another thing even though I don’t agree with Ahmadinejad’s many policies Dr Cole is right about what Ahmadinejad said here is his full speech translated

http://themiddleeastnow.com/ref/jadspeech

the exact persian word he used is better translated to wiped, vanished or cleared rather than “wiped off the map” which means a geographically located place and never mentions Israel or occupiers but occupying regime.

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By Duane, March 14, 2006 at 11:41 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

The WORLD should be working together to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons or technology for weapons. It seems this would prevent a possible nuclear war in the Middle East with Israel from ever happening. If all nations work together on this then no bombs will ever drop because of this issue. And I don’t believe any of this is about oil or dollars either. Iran does want nuclear weapons and more importantly, they would want to use them!

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By crusader bunnypants, March 14, 2006 at 11:24 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

Is Israel going to give up its secret nookular program or Weapons of Mass Murder? Is the USA?

oh!

This isn’t about WMDS, or Israel, but the US $ and the Iranian Oil Bourse. The US Government deserves its downfall, so do the US Citizens!

Fluff up your feather pillow and keep that tar on the back burner. World Revolution is coming!

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By felicity smith, March 14, 2006 at 11:22 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

Yet again Mr. Bush is throwing out outright lies.  The present top man in the Iraqi government said yesterday that Iran is not flooding Iraq with IED’s or personnel.  In a recent speech Mr. Bush left out the word “not.” I’m beginning to think that Mr. Bush is a pathological liar.

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By Neal, March 14, 2006 at 10:58 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

I question the main assertion in the article.  According to the article, From an Iranian point of view, the Americans are simply being unreasonably aggressive.  Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei has given a fatwa or formal religious ruling against nuclear weapons, and President Ahmadinejad at his inauguration denounced such arms and committed Iran to remaining a nonnuclear weapons state.

Professor Cole may be a bit out of date.  This is what historian Daniel Jonah Goldhagen wrote on March 2, 2006 in The New Republic: And now, in the context of the current crisis, after years of withholding their support, Iranian clerics who follow Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, Ahmadinejad’s spiritual adviser, have ominously issued a fatwa justifying the use of nuclear weapons.

So much for Cole’s theory.

Goldhagen, prior to the noted point, also indicates, with reference to Iran and the bomb - and note the statement by the allegedly moderate Mr. Rafsanjani -:

No less than three successive Iranian presidents have publicly called for the annihilation of Israel and the effective mass murder of hundreds of thousands or millions. Falsely depicted in this respect as an Iranian “radical,” Ahmadinejad’s call to “wipe Israel off the map"--together with Iran’s insistent drive to develop nuclear weapons--echoes the “moderate” former president and current Iranian power broker Hashemi Rafsanjani’s more elaborate account from December 2001 of the Iranian political Islamic leadership’s underlying thinking. “If, one day, the Islamic world is also equipped with weapons like those that Israel possesses now, then the imperialists’ strategy will reach a standstill, because the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything. However, it will only harm the Islamic world. It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality.” Here Rafsanjani is dispassionately thinking through the implications of a genocidal policy in which one nuclear bomb dropped near Tel Aviv would effectively destroy geographically tiny Israel. He gladly declares to his nation and the world that the costs--including hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of Iranians dead as a result of nuclear retaliation from Israel’s invulnerable nuclear-armed submarines--would be worth it.

Are these calls for genocide real, as Goldhagen believes them to be, or are such calls just talk that are not even worth a comment from Cole? Well, according to Goldhagen, the Iranian thinking is as follows:

A renascent and ascendant Muslim world would first acquire nuclear weapons and thus attain parity of power with the West. Then it would annihilate Israel. Aided by global Islamic forces (there are an estimated 1.2 billion Muslims in the world), which are already showing their strength in Europe, political Islam would proceed to assail the West, weaken it, and ultimately subdue it.

If Goldhagen is correct, the world is dangerous not just because the US is meddlesome but because the Iranians and others have a very dangerous, genocidal agenda.  Would it not make sense for Cole, if he believes his own position, to explain why Goldhagen’s evidence and argument is wrong rather than asserting the best case for his position - in this case, evidently, overlooking a fatwa in Iran allowing the use of nuclear weapons -?

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By Andreas Gegenwarst, March 14, 2006 at 10:54 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

The majority of ordinary Americans are ignorant about the real issues hidden behind Iran’s nuclear agenda: the Iranian Oil Bourse. Unfortunately, the mainstream media in America plays in favor of the Bush Administration; therefore, they live in a bubble of lies which are feed with so much propaganda of fear (i.e. the “War on Terror").
Just remember what Abraham Lincoln once said: Perhaps Americans who might read this post will start to have second thoughts about Bush and his policy towards Iran
Here I’m enclosing a link to a very informative article about the Iranian Oil Bourse by William Clark.

Article found at :
http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=7707

Original article :
http://usa.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/17450

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By dan, March 14, 2006 at 10:42 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

“The occupation regime” is one of the ways these deeply hate-filled societies avoid using the name “Israel.” Another one is ‘the Zionist entity.” When they refer to the occcupation, they mean Tel Aviv as well as Ramallah. Governments that recognize Israel, such as Jordan, mean the West Bank and East Jerusalem when they refer to the occupation. Iran is certainly not among them.

The meeting at which the Iranian president called for “the occupation regime” to “vanish” was a conference entitled “A World Without Zionism.” Zionism is the idea that the Jews, like any other people of the earth, are entitled to a state of their own. For some reason it must have been inconvenient for Mr. Cole to mention the name of this conference.
As for the relevance of Holocaust denying, the parallel is to those racists in the 20th century (thankfully rare now) who claimed slavery was not a bad institution. They denied the suffering of African Americans and portrayed them as infantile beings who benefited from their masters’ kind concern. After the Civil Rights movement these racists deviated from what one poster called “the party line” just as Holocaust deniers do today. 

Should anyone concerned about racism trust someone who denies the facts about slavery?  Similarly, should anyone concerned about the use of atomic weapons against civilian populations trust someone who denies the genocide against the Jews that has already happened?

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By Brandon, March 14, 2006 at 9:38 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

Why would the Iranian government turn down a Russian offer for already enriched Uranium for Nuclear plants?  This would seem to solve many problems for Iran with regards to a possibly ostensible civilian power program:
-It will cut down on the time it takes to obtain enriched uranium.
-Allow Iran to have nuclear plants without a fear of non-complience by Israel/US.
-Remove excuses for US/Isreal to ratchet up efforts for a military strike of some kind.

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By Michael, March 14, 2006 at 9:34 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

If Iran wants the bomb, they will get it one way or the other so the whole argument seems moot at this point.  There is enough missing plutonium out there for the taking that why even build a reactor becomes the question.

The NPT is a piece of paper - a joy joy Chamberlain/Hitler type of flash in the pan agreement without substance.  It means nothing - even the US is in violation of the treaty. So why bring it up.

The US has enough domestic problems that we are not facing, nor can we muster enough fortitude to face and it seems that pointing the other way is just another means to hide and cover our own faults. 

Perhaps it might be better for the US to tend to home matters first and then issues outside its borders later.

I grew up during the Viet Nam build up – I’m hearing the same style rhetoric only different names are used.  I’m hearing the same fear mongering, but now it is in the Middle East and not Asia. 

If Iran has ‘the bomb’ idealizations, so be it for they also know the first time they flip one, the world will use like in kind and there will be no Iran.  If they want simple energy – let them build reactors and they too will find out what a mess it is to upkeep and maintain.  But, to create a world wide shouting match - my gawd. 
Me thinks the man (both of them) protests too much.

If Iran cannot be trusted, who is to say the US can be trusted?  Both sides are now calling each other the culprit and that reminds me of kindergartners. 

In short, what exactly is the problem?

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By Jason Eckelman, March 14, 2006 at 9:31 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

Regarding Comment #5140 by Wayne: This, to me, is the crystalization of everything wrong with this country right now. 9/11 ripped the scab off every xenophobic, racist impulse brewing below the surface of American culture, and the horrific attack of that day on innocent US citizens is now used to justify all manner of horrors perpetrated on (primarily innocent civilian) foreign citizens by the US abroad. It is not up to the US to decide which countries can to exist, and which can’t. Every country can be spun into a “threat” when the right propaganda is applied. Will this country ever be run by adults again?

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By Wayne, March 14, 2006 at 8:50 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

I’m sure that you are very uncomfortable with the idea of another American war.

Little inconvenient facts like: Afghanistan being an absolute quagmire with thousands of dead American soldiers by now at the hands of Saddamn-supported Taliban and AL Qaeda insurgents, the fact that most of the weapons and funding support for the current insurgency in Iraq is coming from Iran, or that Iran has aided and abetted Al Qaeda in escaping Afghanistan don’t ever seem to register on some people’s radars.

Saddamn was killing tens of thousands of his own people every month, but we’re the viscous evil murderers of Iraqis.

All wars may be bad but I’m absolutely sure that future history will tell that the attempts to free the peoples of Iraq and Afghanistan AND HOPEFULLY IRAN from the tyranny of dictators and Islamofascists will be better than any alternative. Not only for them but for us as well.

Places where one day suicide bombers have no basis of support and no way to operate and places that don’t end there meetings with chants of “Death to America” are places that are not a threat to us and our descendents.

That last alone is reason for us to go to war with Iran. Not to mention the 444 days our citizens remained as hostages from OUR OWN EMBASSY. This outrage and act of war has has never answered and if we are to have the true respect within the culture of the Middle East, 911 and its various similar acts and these Iranian facts must be answered with our righteous fist.

Like the Japanese, we did not seek war with these people but in order for us to have a freindship and proper respect like we do now with the Japanese we must educate them in the manner we did the Japanese: we squash their violent ambitions like a sledge hammer flattens a mosquito. This is the best and only true way to acheive peace with passionate,prideful, and ignorant societies.

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By Lynn, March 14, 2006 at 8:41 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

Iran is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has allowed the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect and monitor its nuclear energy research program, as required by the treaty. ..........Tehran denies having military labs aiming for a bomb, and in November of 2003 the IAEA formally announced that it could find no proof of such a weapons program.

Which is more than can be said of what the IAEA is allowed to inspect in the UK (signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and staunch ally of the U.S.), as stated in 2003 by the then Energy Minister.

“The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) can carry out limited inspections of only Britain`s civilian and not military nuclear facilities, Energy Minister Stephen Timms has revealed.
“The IAEA can designate any UK civil nuclear facility, or any part thereof, for safeguards inspection visits but has no right of access to nuclear material required for national security and sites such as Aldermaston” where nuclear weapons are made”

Full text at : http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/uk/uk-0 31204-irna01.htm

This weekend, it was revealed that the “UK develops secret nuclear warhead”

“BRITAIN has been secretly designing a new nuclear warhead in conjunction with the Americans, provoking a legal row over the proliferation of nuclear weapons.”

Article at : http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2081800,0 0.html

It very much seems to be the case of the pot calling the kettle black - again.

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By ben, March 14, 2006 at 8:27 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

As a long-time reader of Juan Cole’s, I always value his contributions.  Juan argues that it would not be rational for Bush + Co to bomb Iran—that the consequences would be too negative for the U.S. in Iraq and around the world.  But might this be a faulty assumption?  Bush seems to operate on his own gut feelings and perhaps even divine revelations.  I fear that he will bomb Iran within a year.

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By HJM, March 14, 2006 at 8:18 am #
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It’s trully is as Juan C. translates. I’m from Iraq and have lived in Iran for 4 years. There are no wise politians in US for a long long time. They are looking for another Iraq,

Juan only forgets 1 realy important fact:

Iran wants to open the 3th oil bourse in the world. It will be the end for US$. Go and google about it en the its effects. Its an eye opener.

regards,

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By scout29c, March 14, 2006 at 7:49 am #
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I think we need to address what I see as the elephant in the room.  Rather than some idealistic injection of democracy or individual freedom in the Middle East by overthrowing Saddam, Bush has caused a change in the balance of power among literally age-old rivalries: Persian vs. Arab, Shiite vs. Sunni, and all against the Jews.

We may be dealing with Bush and his Neocon foreign policy wonks little experiment in the Middle East for the rest of the century.  Just like in the previous century, WWI which led to WWII, the atomic bomb, and the Cold War, all started with that little trouble in the Balkans.  The Bush noble but naïve involvement in Iraq may have the lasting effect that he had hope but nothing like what he anticipated. 

While Mr. Cole does not believe the Iranians are really trying to obtain the bomb, the perceived threat is against other Arab nations, especially Saudi Arabia, rather than the U.S. or Europe.  How many Wahabis will move across the border to aid their Sunni brothers?  Can Turkey allow a independent Kurd state across their border?

Have they located accessible flat roofs in the Green Zone, from which helicopters could leave in a hasty, emergency exit?

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By Erik, March 14, 2006 at 7:32 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

This whole flap over Iran just shows how much we are willing to impose standards on others that we refuse to impose on ourselves.  Go take a look at a map.  To the east of Iran are: Afghanistan, where there are about 25,000 US troops, and Pakistan, an ally of the US with nukes.  To the north is Uzbekistan, which is allowing the US to use airbases there.  To the west is Iraq, with 150,000 US troops. To the northwest is Turkey, a powerful US ally.  To the south is Qatar, Doha, etc., with substantial forces.  And let’s not forget about Azerbaijan, to the north, where Donald Rumsfeld has been spending a bit of time lately. And then, of course, there is Israel, with the biggest open secret in the world - its nuclear weapons capabilities.

So, Iran is surrounded. It has every right to feel paranoid, and it’s plain that this administration is doing everything to try to provoke them.  To say that Iran is a “threat” is to implicitly ignore the enormous threats faced by Iran.  It should be hardly surprising that Ian might have an interest in developing nukes.  Any country that is so obviously threatened would be looking into ways of defending itself, and North Korea has proved that one of the best ways is to have nukes.

To argue that Iran should stay out of Iraqi politics is to once again apply standards to others that we do not apply to ourselves.  What is the US’s role in Iraq if not to interfere in Iraqi politics?

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By M. Bakhtiar, March 14, 2006 at 7:08 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

You said it all and thank you!

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By Tirdad Bozorgmehr, March 14, 2006 at 7:00 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

Hello:

I wonder if you may direct me to a web page someplace that would have the original text of the Ahmadi Nejad’s speech in Farsi, with the reference to wiping Israel off the face of the earth in it.

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By Ali Rezaei, March 14, 2006 at 6:38 am #
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As an Iranian i’d like to say that Mr. Cole has once again missed the mark on the Islamic dictatorship.  Whenever there is any opposition the current dictatorship Mr. Cole runs to their aid and defense.  Similar to the bloodsuckers who defended the Savak Mr. Cole is a bloodsucker who defends the current dictatorship to the teeth. He’s naive, arrogant, and often dillusional.

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By Jeff Moskin, March 14, 2006 at 6:35 am #
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A good article, but it misses the real reason BushCo will bomb Iran. It is the same reason BushCo invaded Iraq.

That reason is the decision to trade oil for Euros rather than Dollars.

The US finds itself in the enviable position of being the sole printer of the sole currency now accepted globally for oil purchases. It costs the Fed 2.3 cents to print a $100 bill, yet China, India, and every other world trading partner must acquire this money to buy the oil it needs. We buy DVD players from China with money we print for pennies...because BushCo make the rules. Nice work if you can get it, but not entirely fair.

Saddam agreed to take Euros in Sept 2000. He did so until he was overthrown by BushCo in 2003. BushCo quickly reverted to using only Dollars.

Hugo Chavez has been threatening to take Euros; he survived a BushCo/CIA coup attempt a few years ago. He has not mentioned Euros since then.

Which now brings us to Iran, which, while not a nuclear threat is a very real financial threat to the US Dollar monopoly. If the Euro were to compete with the Dollar as a World Reserve Currency, the Dollar would drop in value (think: Argentina). BPaying for oil is the Dollar’s primary use, because America has outsourced so much of her manufacturing we have little to sell.

The coming attack on Iran, like the invasion of Iraq, is really about Dollar Hegemony. All the rest is BushSpeak.

And we know what that is.

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By Linda Shaw, March 14, 2006 at 5:32 am #
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I’m an old woman without the historical background of those on this page, but Juan Cole is my first read each morning.

I have watched the United States vilify its “enemies” all my life, beginning with Castro.  Now I learn that Milosevic was probably painted worse than he was, certainly Saddam Hussein, Hugo Chavez and this latest—Ahmadinejad.

So I have developed a rule of thumb, especially after watching the Bush administration make villains of even its domestic critics:  If the President and his people say bad things about someone, it’s very likely propaganda and requires information from independent sources.

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By Okie, March 14, 2006 at 5:27 am #
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I have a guess as to the “other motivation.” New York and London have the only world markets to buy oil, and they both price oil in US dollars.  This month Iran will open a market to sell oil for euros.  If the world can buy oil for euros, why would the world want to use the rapidly depreciating dollars that the Treasury and Fed Reserve crank out by the billions every week?  And if the world doesn’t need our dollars any more, that will put a painful end to our trade and budget deficits.  The last person who sold oil for euros was Saddam Hussein.  When the US, Britain and Israel finish with Iran, its new market will be gone or will convert to selling oil for US dollars.  Then a smiling President will give us a double thumbs-up and say, “Mission accomplished!”

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By Matthew Rensen, March 14, 2006 at 3:58 am #
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There are so many things wrong with the authors way of thinking I don’t know where to begin. All the retoric and verbage does not preclude the fact (well founded belief) that the Iranians are not our friends, they are not to be trusted, and once the have nueclear weopons they will use it. Their sole purpose is to destroy Israel, murdering millions, and they don’t care how many Moslems they kill in the process, after all, they will be martyrs.
If Iran is allowed to continue WWIII will commence.

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By Hilding Lindquist, March 14, 2006 at 3:30 am #
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Re: Comment #5099 by Joe Citizen on 3/13 at 5:03 pm

In considering the influence of evangelical Christians (I was raised as one as a child), we have to remember their belief in the end times prophesy of the re-establishment of the State of Israel and the Jewish Temple in Jerusalem.

The scarey part is their belief in the Battle of Armageddon (taking place in the Middle East) to defeat the forces of evil.

Ring any bells?

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By Steve, March 13, 2006 at 11:42 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Informative article.

You say “In some ways, by invading Iraq and destabilizing it, as well as fostering the rise of Shiite religious parties in Baghdad, the Bush administration has inadvertently strengthened Shiite Iran’s hand”

Yes, but one can go much further. People need to understand that the Iraq invasion has not only strengthened Iran’s hand it has CLEARLY DESTABILIZED IRAN and pushed it away from liberalization and towards anti american policies. 

And America’s confrontational attitude ensures this will only continue.

This more than the mess in Iraq may be the lasting disasterous legacy of America’s “sloppy and callously executed” invasion.

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By Andrea, March 13, 2006 at 11:01 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Cole correct. Almost all the world knows Iran is no threat, compared to the vast nuclear arsenal of the Brits, France, China, Russia & us. One wonders, there are at least 20 other nations that have worst human rights records. Look at Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, in Africa many countries with genocidal regimes, Burma, etc. In fact, now Afghanistan is a narco state, with close to 90% of worlds heroin production. Also, look at nukes of Inida, Israel, Pakistan & North Korea. Dozens of inspections at Iran’s nuclear plants. We need a peace initiative with Iran.

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By Ruth MacDonald Wilson, March 13, 2006 at 10:42 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

James #5096 mentions “the smoking gun” of Iran. When did Iran start shooting at anyone recently? I know that it is just a figure of speech, but I worry that we will all absorb more of the prejudicial content of the rhetoric about the Arab world from this administration than we would like to.  Has anyone noticed how loosely the word ‘enemy’ is used by the Republicans when talking about Iraq? It seems that Juan Cole’s deep knowledge of the Middle East and its languages is the advantage that helps him produce his excellently rich analyses of situations over there. To much of Washington’s plans and policies about the ME are based on what they want to get out of wars and other manipulations of them, not JC’s depth of understanding...Unless the admin. knows as much as Juan does about the Arab world, but just LIES meticulously and monumentally to us.

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By deRougemont, March 13, 2006 at 10:27 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Hasn’t anyone thought about the economic side of the Bush push for regime change RIGHT NOW rather than in a few years?  The UAE just switched a portion of its reserve to euros. (To punish the US for renaging on the port deal?) Iran is set to switch to euro based currency around March 20.  This would devalue the dollar.  Remember, one of the first things Bush did after mission accomplished in Iraq was to switch back the oil base from euros to dollars.

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By Arash, March 13, 2006 at 10:01 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Well iam an iranian who lived in canada for the past 6 years and unlike most iranians who left iran after the revolution my family just came here for a better life and education all due to the sanctions that the U.S government has slapped on iran for the past 25 years sure they made living hard in iran for some but you have to remember that since its creation in 500-600 Bc ira was never occuped exept twice once by alexander the great for about 50 years next time by mongols again for about 40-50 yaers it was the king of iran who freed the jews from the egyptions and helped them build the wall in juresulam, so my point is comes under pressure from outsiders the people of iran forget who their guverment is shah, islamist or watever else they come together to protect their people and their land. and i ask you americans and westerners to please get your facts before you judge and start talking and supporting bush iran with a history of 3000 years hasent killed as many people that the united states from its creation or even in the past 50 years. but besides all that you think you have democracy in the west but all you really have is 100 tv channels that feed you what your government wants you to think fear iran fear middle east or anything else that is in their intrest just a thought for all you to consider did you all know that the united states naval forces in perasian gulf DESTROYED an iranian passenger plane in the 1980’s during iran iraq war killing over 250 people and they called it an error they thought it was a threat when we all know how a 747 looks and it can not posses a threat and it was going trough its civilian air road over the gulf and they got no warning they just got shut down but okay EVEN IF IT WAS A MISTAKE WHICH IS IMPOSIBLE THEY BROUGHT THE GENERAL OF THAT SHIP BACK TO THE STATES AND AWARDED HIM SO AFTER MANY THINGS LIKE THAT HAPPEN HOW DO YOU EXPECT THE IRANIANS TO RESPECT AND TRUST THE AMERICANS WOULD YOU TRUST US IF WE HAD DONE THE SAME TO YOU .
PLEASE I REALLY WANT TO KNOW WHAT U THINK SORRY IS SOME PARTS OF THIS COMMENT DONE MAKE SENCE BUT I CAN DO MY BEST TO EXPLAIN IT TO YOU .

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By W. White, March 13, 2006 at 7:26 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Joe Citizen wrote (5099), ‘...serious analysts have attributed the winning margin of victory to Mr. Bush’s success at winning key segments of the Jewish vote.’

Israeli influence in America is not exerted through the miniscule Jewish vote; it is exerted through the power of the purchase dollar. This is how the mechanism works:

U.S. tax payors give five billion, more or less, to Israel every year. Much of this money is channeled back to the U.S. defense industry, in which the neocons are heavily invested. Well-known examples are the Bush family and the Carlyle Group, and of course, Chaney and Halliburton.

You might say that we are paying for our own misery. The situation drips with bitter irony.

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By Joe Citizen, March 13, 2006 at 5:29 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Mr. Cole’s news about what the Iranian president really said about Israeli occupation—as opposed to the translation we have all heard about wiping Israel “off the map”—is quite a revelation, if true.

I have to wonder: couldn’t US pressure on Iran give Iran even greater incentive to cause trouble in Iraq and further undermine—at this crucial, very sensitive time—US and Iraqi efforts to achieve political stability?

I also have to wonder to what degree current US foreign policy is deterimed by domestic political considerations. Although much focus has been given to the decisive role played by evangelical Christians in the last election, some quite serious analysts have attributed the winning margin of victory to Mr. Bush’s success at winning key segments of the Jewish vote.

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By Jim Dwyer, March 13, 2006 at 5:08 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Unlike his predecessor, Mohammad Khatami, Ahmadinejad is a Holocaust denier.

I’ll never understand why this point matters. Acceptance or non-acceptance of the “Official Party History” is one of the hallmarks of the Bolshevik/Stalinist era. People went to jail for it back then, just as they are today.

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By James, March 13, 2006 at 4:57 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

If I didn’t know any better, I would make a quick conclusion that Mr. Cole is an Iranian sympathizer.  However, I am grateful that pieces like that of Cole’s are still published in some form in the media.  This is a well-written piece with a lot of information never seen from the mainstream press.  I would have never known about the translation error by the American media regarding the Iranian president’s words about the “occupation regime.” It’s subtle things like these we need so badly in the mainstream press to give a fuller picture of what is going on in the world.  Again, I would have written off Cole as an Iranian sympathizer.  It’s hard to do so after reading this eye-opening piece.  Although, I do have one criticism: Cole seems a bit quick when writing off Iran’s nuclear capabilities.  Was the secret nuclear project (not mentioned to the IAEA) nothing more than a civilian project with no surreptitious underpinnings?  The article makes sense when things like these are not considered too seriously.  However, this article does not go out of its way to show with absolute certainty that Bush and Co. are entirely wrong.  Yes, the president of Iran can take a course in public relations.  But, surely, within the context of al-Qaeda’s influence in the Middle East, the uprising Shia, etc., can we just write off the smoking gun of Iran as nothing more than Bush and Co.’s ability to raise hell?

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