UK Confidential Memo: Civil War ‘Likely’ in Iraq

Britain’s outgoing ambassador to Baghdad warned in a leaked confidential memo, “The prospect of a low-intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy.”

BBC:

Civil war is the most likely outcome in Iraq, Britain’s outgoing ambassador in Baghdad has warned, in a confidential memo to ministers obtained by the BBC.

William Patey, who left the Iraqi capital last week, also predicted the break-up of Iraq along ethnic lines.

He did also say that “the position is not hopeless” - but said Iraq would remain “messy and difficult” for the next five to 10 years.

The Foreign Office said it did not comment on leaked documents.

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