FF: We have a world-class education system; our colleges and universities.

Yep, it’s like our Health Care. IF you can afford to go to it, then you get a pretty good education.

Actually, only the better schools are at the top of World Class listings (like the University of Shanghai Ranking). And, they do not offer a tertiary education to most Americans, who go to other schools. And, there, the rankings are really a mixed bag.

Because PostSecondary Education is still about money and many have lowered their standards in order to recruit (to keep the “business” going). And what comes out is not all that high a caliber. We have pigeon-hold students, who are perhaps competent at one subject but do not have a well-rounded education - that gives them a necessary flexibility in this Brave New Global World of ours. 

The fact of the matter is that about 50% of our HS-graduates that do go, drop out.  (Some of whom go elsewhere in the tertiary education system, but the net result is still likely around 40%.) Where do they go?

They can easily end-up in un- and semi-skilled jobs that are flocking to the Far East. And those jobs that do not go to the Far East (like flipping hamburgers at a fast-food outlet) are low-paying.

I maintain my point: American education must not be a one-off. That is, we pass some time initially in the system, get a HS-diploma and then figure the economy owes us a living. Education (that is, vocational or otherwise) should accompany us all our lives, in case we need to change career paths. (And there is a large role for Internet there to play.)

Let’s hope that the recent Great Recession has disabused us of the fairy-tale notion that Education is only for the younng. Because, as most forecasts show, this recession was an inflexion point. Meaning what?

If we don’t renovate the system, going back to Old Practices will only worsen the standard-of-living of not only those presently employed but our children who will soon be joining the Work Force and looking for jobs.

Putting the accent on Education is not just a “nice thing to do”, it is an imperative. I tell you: The real menace to the well-being of our citizens does not come from Without (alQaeda) but from Within (the Dumbing Down of America).

REPLICANT CALCULUS

Calculated Risk, yet another economics blog, posts this commentary:

Of the 3.2% total growth pace, 3.02 percentage points were contributed by personal consumption. Gains were also attributable to a nice improvement in exports. Net exports contributed positively to growth for the first time all year. But for the first time in almost two years, federal government spending joined state and local spending as a drag on growth. This trend will continue; generally speaking, future growth will have to come despite government cuts rather than thanks to government supports.

So what? That’s the way the trend should be, that is, growth should come from consumption rather than Federal/State spending. And we’ll see about the “cuts”.

Anyone wanna talk “cap” instead of “cuts”? Cuz I figure that, with the present gridlock in Washington, that’s the way Federal/State expenditures are gonna be. Or should be, given the circumstances.

(The Replicants have never cut budgets in their political lives. Remember the blather of Reckless Ronnie about cutting the budget” “during his campaign for the presidency? Well, not only did he not cut it, but by reducing taxes he seriously worsened the Budget Deficit.)

When are we going to understand Replicant Calculus? They do not want full-employment in November 2012.

They want people hurting very badly so as to move votes into their camp. And all means to that end are permitted in a warped belief that the ends justify those means to recapture the White House. (So they can put another Lead-head in there?)

Power is key in this country. Perhaps anchored in a inordinate competitive desire for “winning”. And, of course, if one does not “win”, then they are obviously “losers”. What childish nonsense.

It is not, however, the objective of a society to distinguish itself so radically into two camps, the “winners” and the “losers”. Politics is not, or should not be, a binary outcome like the Rose Bowl. Life is not and should not be a jungle - unless, of course, we are all animals.

This cleavage was not a foundational purpose of our nation, not then and certainly not now. Modern democracies are constituted of citizens equal in rights but unequal in economic value. As regards the latter, any socioeconomic entity can hope to achieve equitability - that is, that the economy be fair and impartial in the distribution of its riches that we all contribute to creating.

(Which means what? That though the distribution of income clearly delineates inequality, its pattern is one of well-proportioned gradients.)

The US is, by far, the least equitable Developed Country on earth. So all the talk we hear about “fair play” or a “level playing field” - it’s just so much blather when assessed against the facts of Income Distribution.

That is, it’s lack of a world-class educational system.

We have a world-class education system; our colleges and universities. Public colleges compete alongside private colleges. Students and parents get to choose (for the most part) what college to go to. Hmmm. Maybe we should apply that concept to grade school and secondary school. Nah, that would never work.

And what do Americans think as regards the nations challenges? The Pew Research Center has some answers here.

Of course, the economy is tops with jobs just behind it, but it is nice to see that American opinion also feels that Education is also important enough to show up in the top five.

But how does a government respond to that concern if the Replcants want to cut budgets? When, in fact, the National Budget expenditures should be addressing one of America’s major hurdles. That is, it’s lack of a world-class educational system.

Which the OECD’s Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) indicates from the highly mediocre scores of American students in the PISA assessment studies. For instance, as indicated in the PISA assessment report as regards the aptitude for Problem Solving given in Figure 2.3 of its report here.

The US is 29th out of 40 nations, just behind the Russian Federation.

SLOWLY DOES IT

The CBo offers up an interesting GDP forecast that can be accessed here. Just what does it show?

First conclusion:
1) There will be no immediate downturn to pre-SubPrime economic numbers (of 4% unemployment levels). The slow trend downwards is going to take a good decade to solidify unemployment at a continual 5.2 or 5.3% (or so) “incompressible” figure. What does “incompressible” mean?
2) It is the “infrastructural figure” below which the economy, even in best of times cannot reduce unemployment. Why? A number of factors, but foremost because pre-2000 the US had an economy that could maintain unemployment at 4%. But due to globalization, many un- and semi-skilled jobs skedaddled elsewhere. What further does this mean?
3) That if manpower skills are not seriously enhanced, there will be 1.2 or 1.3% more unemployed workers as of 2016 than in pre-2000 history, because the jobs that left are not coming back.

What does this mean in terms of imperative economic policy? A renewed effort to:
(A) Get Americans back into educational programs that enhance their skills thus allowing them to progress up the skills/competencies ladder, and
(B) Get the nation to stop graduating dunces from secondary schools, which simply feeds into the unemployment numbers and
(C) Make a serious effort to throughput HS-graduates into tertiary education (vocational, college, university). And
(D) Invest heavily in the development of new industries, that pick up the slack of workers leaving old-industries due to offshoring.

Never believe forecasts for their exactness. The one above assumes that economic policy in the past will be the same in the future, which demonstrates an outcome based upon that hypothesis.

But any forecast gives one a context to do “what if” thinking. And should that thinking be turned into effective economic policy, then America has a chance to change in the outcome. By implementing the sort of ABCD programs described above.

And what if economic policy does not change? Then we have a very sizable unemployment problem that can turn socially very, very volatile.

POST SCRIPTUM

Think the above is Cassandra-thinking? I live in a country that has not had unemployment levels below 7% of more than three decades ...

French youth today are desperate. The adolescents are despairing because their brothers and sisters 3 to 5 years older have left secondary-schooling and have been unemployed for years. Thus, they see very little economic progress that will get them employed. (Youth unemployment in France is above 17%.)

And when that sort of despair overcomes the suburb-ghettos, Watts-like riots start in mid-summer and continue until the cold of winter comes.

BITCHING IN A BLOG

{sn: 1. Replenishment of inventories which were depleted from huge decreases in aggregate demand the past two years, and 2. Rise in stock valuations due to higher corporate profits.}

Inventory replenishment started last year, not this one. Job creation is happening, even if in an unsteady manner. See the BLS time-line net-change data here, which show a net amelioration in the numbers.

If stock valuation are helping to enhance Disposable Income, so much the better. But, I do not give it any great relevance. The heady years of asset-appreciation motorising the economy are in a distant past.

When hours-worked increases, with reduced manpower in production, companies must hire to meet demand for goods and services.

No, Uncle Sam is not out of the sh*t yet, but persistent bad-mouthing the economy doesn’t help either. It’s just useless bitching-in-a-blog.

Take your venom elsewhere.

****************

The increase in exports? Simple. The replacement of arms and
munitions for stock depletion of the u.s. military and probably
some high power arms dealers selling more crap to foreign
dictators, after all those rioting muslims will require extra
munitions and hardware to stop.

After several years of negative to 2 percent growth a 3.2 percent jump is anemic and is only due to two factors . 1. Replenishment of inventories which were depleted from huge decreases in aggregate demand the past two years, and 2. Rise in stock valuations due to higher corporate profits. But those rises in corporate profits resulted from lower production costs- which really translates into more laid off labor- which means the workers who are left have to do even more work at their same lousy salary.These GDPfigures are meaningless. The only number that matters is the rate of unemployment and that’s at 20 percent.

Most importantly, if 2.5% growth is necessary for an economy to create jobs - the US’s 3.2% is a boon to employment. Besides, the Business Roundtable’s Outlook in December showed 80% of business leaders forecasting higher sales.

Sales growth inevitably leads to higher employment numbers - the only question remaining is the lag-time between higher sales and new job offers. It could be as short as 1 quarter and as long as 3 quarters, a long as growth is sustained. And so ...

Whatever the economic chatter of the moment, an economy is driven by consumer expenditure. So, let’s all contribute to the effort by buying something. Anything.

Ah the phoney GDP numbers. The guvmint started pulling these bullshit numbers from their asses decades ago. Heck, the supply-side crowd back in the kindom of Ronny even changed how the number was compiled, counting a service workers output the same as a manufacturing one, and of course, counting only people receiving unemployment benefits as unemployed. Stockman and his ilk from the reaganomics church thought that the real numbers were too depressing for us poor americans to hear, so you coat ‘em sugar and down they go nice and easy.

I once read that there are Lies, Goddamn Lies, and Statisics. It was up to us to figure out if they were the same.

But hey, at least the stock market is doing well these days, with all those great corporate profits rolling in from cutting back american labor and sending jobs overseas to make products at a fraction of the old cost, and not passing on the difference to the consumer in the US, pocketing the difference in huge profits, benefitting the few, and fucking over the many. But these masters of the universe are just capitalists and libretarians, doing what we would all do if put in their shoes for a day.

Isn’t that similar to what the camp guards all said at Nuhremberg. If it wasn’t us, somebody else would have done it. What a way to run an economy!

I guess a dog-eat-dog darwinism scenario is great, if you are already a really big fucking dog.

GDP Logs a 3.2% Rise in 4th Quarter

Yes, and CPI is 2%.

Also, the grain crops are good this year!

[/sarcasm]

I guess all of those “liquidity injections” are working.

Freaking yoyo economics. Why do they think in quarters instead of years?

Christmas shopping and arms sales are bound to raise the GDP for a quarter or so. What about the rest of the year?

As far as jobs for ordinary people, you know, kids who can’t get to college, they are never coming back.

Jesus will be coming back before the jobs come back. ; )