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Ear to the Ground

Obama the Underdog

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Posted on Nov 7, 2011
Reed Kennedy (CC-BY-SA)

Stat geek Nate Silver examined approval ratings, economic indicators and the ideological zeal of the opposition and compared those factors to campaign history. His conclusion is that President Obama is “a slight underdog” to win re-election.

Silver is cautious to point out that any number of developments—Michele Bachmann winning the Republican nomination, for instance—could very rapidly improve Obama’s chances at winning a second term.

Ultimately, his epic New York Times magazine piece tells us what we already know: If a president is (a) not that popular, (b) presiding over a bad economy and (c) finds himself running against a fairly mainstream opponent, he will not be favored to win—if only by a slight margin.

But Silver’s analysis is more interesting in that he debunks several commonly repeated truisms about campaign handicapping.

—PZS

(hat tip: LA Observed)

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Walker Z.'s avatar

By Walker Z., November 8, 2011 at 3:34 am Link to this comment

Since this upcoming election is hardly a race—it
is after all one Repubilcrat paired together with
another Republicrat as the only participants in one
of those two-legged potato sack races we used to do
as kids—I refuse to accept that Mr. Obama should be
considered an “underdog.”  His position (such as it
is) will be very well represented, whether he wins or
not.

As for 2000, my Republicrat acquaintances told me I
“wasted” my vote.  What arrogance and what exquisite
self-deception!

Report this

By grokker, November 7, 2011 at 8:05 pm Link to this comment

Funny too that many of the same folks that blame Nader for Gores loss fail to acknowledge that the election was stolen by the Repugs anyway and that Gore didn’t even have the cohones to challenge the result.

Report this

By rend it, November 7, 2011 at 4:57 pm Link to this comment

obama the underdog, as he should be, his presidency has been upsetting to watch to say the least.

Gore lost 2000 by himself, he could have run on all the issues that got nader votes. I think the real issue with 2000 was that gore really wasnt supposed to win but did and the following months were about having the election turn out the way it was fixed in the first place.

Report this

By John Poole, November 7, 2011 at 3:56 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

I agree with hardy ardee completely.  Excellent points. I had the same attacks
from my democratic friends for my Nader support. So one is not allowed to run
for fear of “tainting” an already foul process?  What the? 

But a reminder to those who admit being fooled as I was with Obama. Most
politicians are double agents. To honor Pete Townsend- let’s not get fooled again.

Report this

By ardee, November 7, 2011 at 3:11 pm Link to this comment

By Paul Hubbard, November 7 at 11:31 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Unfortunately, the Green Party’s endorsement of Ralph Nader in the 2000 election cost Al Gore the election.

Oh will we never be rid of this tired, trite and false mantra? Gore lost his own state Paul, that is what cost him the election. Hanging chads and all those retired Jews who apparently voted for Buchanan helped as well.

Listen Mr. Hubbard, Nader exercised his constitutional right to run for office, like it or not. Six million democrats voted for Shrubya as well. Where is your ire at that one wonders? Further, Nader had the most lucid and honest platform of any candidate in that election. My vote is earned not pledged to a party regardless of the candidate.

You gotta get over this patently false position, really you do.

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Robespierre115's avatar

By Robespierre115, November 7, 2011 at 12:13 pm Link to this comment

@Paul Hubbard, you’re peddling a liberal fantasy, Gore would have responded to 9/11 the same way Bush did, in fact much of the Patriot Act-style legislation that was passed had already been written and formulated (sometimes to an even greater extent) under the Clinton administration. The Clinton years pushed through and expanded many of the “free market” economic policies still wrecking havoc in the world, just ask Mexicans how much they love NAFTA. Please stop believing this fantasy that if only Gore had been elected we would be drinking Starbucks and dancing with unicorns.

After all that’s happened, after the birth of OWS, if people still think the best way to change is by voting Obama…then there is no revolution here yet, it’s dead and rotting on the side of the road.

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By Paul Hubbard, November 7, 2011 at 10:31 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Unfortunately, the Green Party’s endorsement of Ralph Nader in the 2000 election cost Al Gore the election. Nader said he wouldn’t campaign in battleground states but he did anyway. Gore won the popular vote yet did not become president and everything (and I mean everything) went downhill from there. The Green Party lost a huge amount of credibility with me for it’s endorsement of Ralph Nader.

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oddsox's avatar

By oddsox, November 7, 2011 at 8:17 am Link to this comment

This is the same Nate Silver who, on Election Day 2010, had Sharon Angle with an 82% chance to beat Harry Reid and pulling away. 

The election (to be held a year from yesterday)will be about jobs and the economy.
Whoever presents the best case for righting our economic ship and providing jobs will be the winner.

That could well BE Obama, but current trends would have to change for the better.

My estimation is 90% that well either see Cain,  Romney, or Perry as the Repub nominee.  Add Gingrich and Paul to the mix and the chances climb to 95%.
(Sorry Bachmann, Santorum, Huntsman)

Each has been belittled by the mainstream press.
But ANY (including Bachmann, Santorum or Huntsman) could press a compelling case against Obama’s record on the economy.

Report this

By Larry Ball, November 7, 2011 at 6:39 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

The least of two evils is still the less evil.  Even a
bit less evil in government is a step in the right
(Left) direction.

Report this

By ardee, November 7, 2011 at 5:07 am Link to this comment

The simple fact of an incumbents’ advantageous position in an election makes Obama a good bet to win the upcoming race.

The list of those who vie to become his opposition actually makes his chance for re-election much better in fact.

I think that, possible Supreme Court nominations notwithstanding, it matters little who occupies the White House or which of the Duopoly dominates the Legislature. The proof is rather obvious, I think, in the record of the Congress both with a democratic majority and without one.

With Democrats in the majority, including 60 seats in the Senate at one point, the progressive agenda was unrepresented and the ills of our nation unaddressed. With the GOP in the majority the progressive agenda was unrepresented and the ills of our nation unaddressed.

I suggest voting to fix a badly damaged system by NOT voting for either party’s candidates, at any level, local, state and national.I believe strongly that we are in desperate need of a third party dedicated to bringing a progressive agenda to the fore.

Further, I believe that the Green Party is such a force for our side. I do understand the need of the American people for instant fixes and the short attention spans that seemingly doom the chances of any solution that would take more than a few minutes, but the need remains and the solutions are scarce enough.

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By John Poole, November 7, 2011 at 4:48 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Why don’t campaign handicappers such as this author get a real job? No one wants
to hear or see this s..t.  The system is broken beyond repair and one more joke
election won’t mean anything.  A clever plutarchy ran Obama and fooled us. Paul
may be just another clever ruse. There are plenty of double agents in politics.

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