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Ear to the Ground

IMF Sounds Warning About Global Economy

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Posted on Jun 17, 2011
AP / Thanassis Stavrakis

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, left, talks with his new finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, at the parliament in central Athens on Friday.

Three years into the Great Recession, the outlook is wobbly in the eurozone, according to the International Monetary Fund. France and Germany are doing well enough to offset some of the economic problems plaguing their neighbors, but in a networked world, nations’ fates are intertwined—so what happens in the U.S. and Japan also affects European countries, and vice versa.  —KA

BBC:

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the risks facing the world economy have increased.

The fund said it was concerned about the continuing Greek debt crisis, the arguments over US deficit plans and the need to curb growth in Asia.

But it said it expected global growth to remain on track, though it lowered its forecasts for the US and UK.

The IMF predicted that the world economy would grow at a rate of 4.3% in 2011 and 4.5% in 2012.

The fund called for greater political leadership in dealing with the eurozone debt crisis and the budget crisis in the US.

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By omop, June 20, 2011 at 2:02 pm Link to this comment

Its always ” blame some one else for ur own problemos”.

  Why is that countries like Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Portugal that have
been around for several centuries have “money problems” with the IMF?

  And a country like Israel that has only been around for 60 odd years
not only has no money problems but is also a major exporter…in the
billions of dollars of military hardware?

One reads reports of the US also having money problems.

Que passa?

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tropicgirl's avatar

By tropicgirl, June 19, 2011 at 9:07 am Link to this comment

How long must we endure these ridiculous, fake stories.

This is a press release, directly from the City of London…

The IMF “IS” the problem. Its already been discovered that the Greeks do not own this debt. Neither do the Irish, and so on. Its a banker debt. They are just looking for a payoff and a reason to starve people.

This is old news. Iceland figured it out and are ejecting the bankers. Period.

American Trust Funds are NOT unfunded. They have been continually well-funded. They have leaky bottoms.

A treasonous, world-wide, crooked, government cartel.

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Samson's avatar

By Samson, June 19, 2011 at 7:48 am Link to this comment

Uh Oh. If the bankers are worried, that means they
are planning how to steal more of your money to ease
their worried.

It never seems to occur to them that maybe the
biggest problem in the world’s economy is that there
are bankers at the heart of it dedicated to stealing
every penny they can get their hands on. 

When trillions of dollars of wealth disappear because
of fraud and speculative bubbles, and trillions more
disappear into public bailouts of the bankers, don’t
be surprised if the economy seems to struggle for
awhile to deal with the fact that trillions of
dollars have been taken out of it.

If the bankers are worried, keep a close hand on your
wallet. Its a sure bet they worried bankers want to
steal more from you.

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Lafayette's avatar

By Lafayette, June 19, 2011 at 4:07 am Link to this comment

MISDIRECTION IN GOLDMAN SACH’S HOUSING SHORT

Since this is the only lead article about banking and whilst I am on about Goldman Sachs, this linked article, with the above title, is well worth reading to understand the Greed Seed that took root in that Investment Bank.

Link here.

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THX 1133 is not in the movie...'s avatar

By THX 1133 is not in the movie..., June 19, 2011 at 3:32 am Link to this comment

IMO, the IMF is evil incarnate; their fix is to privatize all government services. That’s straight out
of the “Chicago School of Economics” and anyone who has
read Naomi Klein’s “Shock Doctrine” knows exactly where
that’s heading; the disenfranchisement of the middle
class and poor and a leg up to the already
advantaged/rich.
After all these years of theft; it still boggles my
mind how “they” got “us” to consistently vote AGAINST
our own self interests!
Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt ya know…

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Lafayette's avatar

By Lafayette, June 19, 2011 at 3:23 am Link to this comment

BUDGET PROFLIGACY

PH: I wouldn’t trust these guys as far as I could throw them.

Perhaps you are ignorant of what the IMF does? See here  - it’s not all that bad and there is actually a great deal of good being done that could not have occurred otherwise.

Meaning this, the loans it makes to the countries noted in the above linked review (of IMF activities) would not be secured anywhere else in the world except private enterprise. In fact, what is happening in Greece is because it was profligate in the past and much of its debt contracted (off the books to escape EU overview) with a private investment bank called Goldman Sachs.

The EU has a rule that national deficits should not exceed 3% of GDP - which was signed in an inter-EU treaty by countries adopting the euro. Greece’s debt, when it came to a crisis, was four times that level. It is, as of 2010, still at 10.5%.

However, much of its deficit was due to paying debt that was not on its books. This came to light only when it went hat in hand to the EU for a bailout the first time around.

[Of course, if you ask Goldman Sachs why they were lending money to Greece (off the books) it will respond - as it has for just about every financial transaction it has ever done – that it was not “illegal”.]

Is all the above the IMF’s fault? Please explain how.

Some accuse the IMF of instituting “draconian” austerity. That is often, however, exactly the medicine necessary for having had a bad case of Budget Profligacy in order for political parties to stay in power.

POST SCRIPTUM

Is Greece America? Not even in the wildest fantasies of the Republican Party. But all the resulting brouhaha has certainly served their maniacal call for Budget Austerity in America. And why?

Because starving BO & Co of Stimulus Spending suits their electoral strategy to have Americans desperately fed up with the Obama Administration and high-unemployment in order to assure their victory next year.

And the suffering poor be damned. Their ends justify the means.

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By Lafayette, June 19, 2011 at 1:19 am Link to this comment

THE GREED-SEED

jyd: The best method of reducing deficits would be a conduit of wealth from the wealthiest to markets via the Federal Government, e.g. stimulus, job creation via investing in: beneficial infrastructure, industry, and renewable energy sources.

Welcome aboard the “Higher Taxation Bandwagon”.

Certainly, the free-fall of both Marginal and Capital Gains taxation under the Reckless Ronnie administration is at the heart of Corporate and Personal Greed. Consider the history of Income Taxation here.

We see that from the beginning of WW2 to the mid-1960s, during a period of considerable economic expansion in the US, marginal tax-rates were the highest - in the range of 80/90%. From the mid-sixties to the 1980 they remained at 70% whereupon they were reduced drastically. (Who was elected in 1980?)

[Of course, high taxes were not the reason for the economic expansion, which was in fact Consumer initiated and driven.]

I maintain that the Rabid Right, and their warped notion of “success” measured in the number of millionaires/billionaires that American can generate, sowed the greed-seed. Once upon a time, non-inherited riches were earned over a considerable period of time. Nowadays they are earned practically over-night. After all, with the effective marginal taxation rate not the scheduled 35% (as seen in the above info-graphic) but 23% according to IRS reckonings of “effective taxation rates”, that is, after all the loopholes are employed.

This “manna from heaven” (where else should it come from?) is what created the pernicious Income Inequality that is plaguing America today. Worse yet, the Moneyed Class employ their wealth to manipulate Public Opinion in elections towards maintaining the status-quo.

MY POINT: It is immoral

Which brings me to this sad revelation: How can Americans, facing the statistical facts demonstrating clearly Income Unfairness, continue to be so bamboozled as to think the Republicans have any merit whatsoever to lead this country?

That thought is insane. And yet, the stupidity is apparently rampant. The Silent Majority is not only silent, it’s intelligence is in a coma.

It’s consequence, Income Unfairness, is not only Social Injustice but immoral.

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Lafayette's avatar

By Lafayette, June 19, 2011 at 12:50 am Link to this comment

lp: But those inside that bubble are listening to no one outside, so the IMF might as well take a hike until Obama or his replacement come to them, hat in hand, asking for the next bailout, because neither the political coherence nor the economic coherence

Incoherent gibberish with no foundation whatsoever in reality.

Ain’t neva gonna happin’.

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By JDmysticDJ, June 18, 2011 at 11:39 pm Link to this comment

The IMF is an exclusive club whose members are the crème de la crème [sic] of capitalism. The IMF is pushing austerity measures, as it always does, to combat deficits. Austerity measures shrink demand in markets, thus shrinking markets. Another method of reducing deficits would be to increase revenues, but increasing revenues would require increased tax revenues. Increasing tax revenues can be accomplished by higher tax rates and by increasing the incomes of tax payers and expanding the numbers of tax payers.

The best method of reducing deficits would be a conduit of wealth from the wealthiest to markets via the Federal Government, e.g. stimulus, job creation via investing in: beneficial infrastructure, industry, and renewable energy sources. A redistribution of wealth from the few to the many would increase demand in markets, causing both markets and revenues to expand. Such an economic policy would shrink both deficits and the wealth of the crème de la crème [sic], which explains why the crème de la crème [sic] advances policies of austerity for the many and continued prosperity for the few, rather than increased prosperity for the many.

This warning from the IMF could be perceived as a facet of, or a vehicle for, “Disaster Capitalism,” effectually, if not purposefully.

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By Chris Herz, June 18, 2011 at 7:08 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

In past times the West generally and the USA specifically were so rich that it was possible and necessary for the elites to buy off the people.  Post World War II experience showed how this was necessary in Europe to prevent masses of people from going over to the Communists.  And at the same time a bitter lesson had been learned by these elites about placing their trust in Fascist totalitarianism as an alternate method of social control.
When more money was needed to sustain this political edifice, it was easy to get it from the natives—in Africa or Latin America.  Or from the Arabs.  Or the Viets.  The British used to say, “We rule the Ashanti or the Hottentot, for we have the Maxim gun and they have not.”
Enter Mikhail Timofeeyvitch Kalashnikov.  Suddenly the natives can shoot back, and even if the Imperial Marines can still win the boodle, doing so has become prohibitively expensive. 
There is no longer enough boodle for the elites to buy off the peasants.  Mischa Timofeeyvitch’s little invention has changed the international calculus.

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By PatrickHenry, June 18, 2011 at 12:31 pm Link to this comment

I wouldn’t trust these guys as far as I could throw them.

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By litlpeep, June 18, 2011 at 7:29 am Link to this comment

The IMF is hardly the only economic tending group to sound alarms about macro-economies.

Almost every macro-economist outside the Washington, DC - Wall Street bubble is sounding alarms.

But those inside that bubble are listening to no one outside, so the IMF might as well take a hike until Obama or his replacement come to them, hat in hand, asking for the next bailout, because neither the political coherence nor the economic coherence
exists to reverse that bubble’s lethal collision course with economic reality upon which it feeds.

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By Lafayette, June 18, 2011 at 12:01 am Link to this comment

GOOD NEWS

Some good news on the economic front. Credit defaults (those who default on credit-card payments of outstanding balance plus interests) have been trending, finally, downwards. Defaults spiking upwards is what caused our Economic Engine to falter - because consumers started saving (and thus not consuming) in order to settle their unpaid debt.

Credit is a major factor in leveraging Disposable Income in America towards enhancing individual Demand. This news is certainly another good Green Shoot, but it does not indicate how well the recovery might accelerate if at all.

Even if it has been officially “undeclared” a recession, we are into the third year of an officious recession where unemployment remains uncomfortably high for 9% of the working population. With the Replicants employing an insidious election strategy of starving this administration of any funds for further Stimulus Spending (in hopes that high unemployment at the time of next year’s elections will help them win), there is little likelihood that the economy will have any impetus towards recovery that does not come from consumers alone.

After the disastrous Great Recession, the Officious Recession will likely take another two years to full recovery, meaning unemployment rates closer to the long-term trend of 4/5%.

GUD KWESTCHUN

A Gud Kwestchun still remains: Since we are transiting from the Industrial Age to the Information Age, where will new jobs be created? The trite answer is “broadly across the economy”. But that is a non-starter, since the un- and semi-skilled industrial sectors have lost most of those jobs and they are not coming back.

Since about 70% of our GDP is found in the Service Industry, that is where more jobs must be created. The drawback of such jobs is that they are not that highly skilled and companies tend to drop them at the first whiff of an economic downturn. So, it is very wise for students to qualify as highly as possible in the postsecondary scale of education. Vocational Training is a very good alternative to university. The country will need plumbers, electricians, hospital assistants and nursery assistants in growing numbers.

Not everybody can go to university and not everybody should go to university.  And the US must absolutely increase its throughput from secondary to postsecondary education. Flipping hamburgers at a fast-food outlet is no guaranty of a brilliant future.

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