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Ear to the Ground

He’s for Real: Herman Cain Leads in Iowa

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Posted on Oct 30, 2011
Gage Skidmore (CC-BY-SA)

Republican front-runner Herman Cain in Des Moines, Iowa.

Many keen political observers have not taken the ascendancy of Herman Cain seriously, because they know winning the Republican presidential nomination isn’t about national polls, it’s about Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and the other primaries and caucuses.

That all changes with a new poll commissioned by The Des Moines Register showing Cain ahead of Mitt Romney by one point to lead all rivals. With a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points, the survey of likely caucus-goers makes it a tightly contested race between Cain and Romney, with their closest competitor, Ron Paul, a distant 10 points behind.

Add together first and second choices, and you get 42 Cain, 33 Romney and 21 Paul. Cain is reported to be the best-liked of the candidates, but most said they had not made up their minds.

Caucuses are much more involved and potentially awkward than primaries. Rather than heading into a curtained-off booth to cast a secret ballot on their way to work, caucus-goers gather in meeting spaces and advocate for and divide themselves by candidate based on rules that differ by party. The process discourages voting and, as Barack Obama demonstrated in 2008, allows a well organized campaign or one with a particularly passionate following (paging Ron Paul fans) to have an outsize impact.

This doesn’t mean that Cain is set to win the Iowa caucuses or the Republican nomination. It does mean that his campaign is more than a joke or a media creation and, bizarre commercials aside, it needs to be taken seriously.

Update: Just when things were looking up for Mr. Cain, the candidate was forced to deny sexual harassment allegations Sunday. Welcome to the big leagues, Herman.

—Peter Z. Scheer

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PatrickHenry's avatar

By PatrickHenry, November 1, 2011 at 3:18 am Link to this comment

Thats funny.

Reports indicate Ron Paul as the leader in (2) Iowa polls.  I wonder which one Cain was doing well in?

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/29/ron-paul-wins-both-tallies-at-gop-pres-straw-poll-in-iowa/

What is interesting is that all districts with hand ballots Paul smoked the competition, in districts with computer ballots, he didn’t do squat.

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By Fearless, October 31, 2011 at 10:02 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Ugh, will the caucuses arrive already so both “conservative” and “liberal” media can stop touting these stooges. Iowa and the rest of the nation backs Ron Paul, end of story.

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By berniem, October 31, 2011 at 1:48 pm Link to this comment

Yes he is for real, and that is what is so tragic about the current status of this nation!

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By grokker, October 31, 2011 at 6:48 am Link to this comment

All in all, he appears to be very “presidential” and “electable” to me!

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By grokker, October 31, 2011 at 6:42 am Link to this comment

I understand there are charges of alleged workplace sexual harassment involving several women and Mr.Cain. Would you believe one of his favorite people and role models is Clarence Thomas?

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By James M. de Laurier, October 31, 2011 at 6:30 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Peter Z. Scheer,        10/31/2011
      At least the omniscient and omnipotent leaders
know where the most important votes - the ones that
count,will be coming from.
Thanking you for this opportunity to comment -
James M. de Laurier

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Payson's avatar

By Payson, October 31, 2011 at 5:27 am Link to this comment

Right…Placing such importance on these ridiculous “results” is done by the
“media” rather than actual Americans.  I grew up in New Hampshire and believe
me, Herman Cain’s tax plan will not win him many supporters.  It doesn’t matter
what any of them say or do because every one of them is chosen FOR us and
talked up or down based on ratings or the goals of those actually in power.

It is like telling all of the students in the school where I teach that smoking is now
allowed because three kids who smoke in the bathroom on the third floor held a
straw poll and decided everyone wanted a new pro-smoking policy.

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Billy Pilgrim's avatar

By Billy Pilgrim, October 31, 2011 at 4:16 am Link to this comment

Must be Karl Rove up to his dirty tricks again. It
will be fun to watch this Republican traveling circus
and freak show begin to devour itself. Saturday Night
Live opened it’s season with a parody of a Republican
primary debate; however, as funny as the skit was, it
was nowhere near as funny, nor as frightening, as
watching these psychopaths in action at an actual,
live debate. As mediocre a president as Obama has
been, to actually turn our country over to the
Republicans, especially with the distinct possibility
of one, or maybe two, Supreme Court Justice seats
opening up, would be a tragedy of Shakespearean
proportions.  I don’t want to hear the usual whining
from the far left about the two parties both being
corrupt, etc.. There is no comparison that justifies
doing nothing and allowing one of the Republican
candidates to win the general election not to mention
losing the Senate and not gaining back the House.
Unless you are an anarchist like Mr. Hedges, a man I
greatly admire for his genuine sincerity, you have to
be a complete nihilist, not to mention delusional, if
you don’t care deeply about which party should be in
charge of our government. I agree that both parties
are corrupt and I would love to see a viable third
party emerge, a true progressive, people’s party.
However, there is not enough time now, with just a
year away from the election, for such a party to be
created.

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By Dr Bones, October 31, 2011 at 3:32 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Heck of a match up…. Milwaukee Weasels against Chicago Thugs.

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PatrickHenry's avatar

By PatrickHenry, October 31, 2011 at 3:00 am Link to this comment

Pure propaganda.

Ron Paul has been cleaning these reptillians clocks in the straw polls and that information has purposefully been withheld by mainstream media.

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By Druthers, October 31, 2011 at 2:04 am Link to this comment

How did we get here?  How did we get to a place where we have clown candidates that take the day?
I think one of the most important reasons is that we allowed the media to be controlled by a few private corporations - it quite simply that we no longer have a “free” press; we no longer have access to real information.  The general public lives in the same mental bubble as the media divas who filter and propagandize their freakish ideology that appeals to those avid for certitudes - a Big Daddy who knows best – and in America Big Daddy totes guns and takes no prisoners.

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Outraged's avatar

By Outraged, October 31, 2011 at 1:26 am Link to this comment

Yeah, but it looks like he’s got a problem.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
“Herman Cain’s two top campaign aides ran a
private Wisconsin-based corporation that helped the
GOP presidential candidate get his fledgling campaign
off the ground by originally footing the bill for
tens of thousands of dollars in expenses for such
items as iPads, chartered flights and travel to Iowa
and Las Vegas - something that might breach federal
tax and campaign law, according to sources and
documents.

“.....“If the records accurately reflect what
occurred, this is way out of bounds,” said a
Washington, D.C.-based election lawyer who advises
many Republican candidates and conservative groups on
campaign issues. The lawyer asked not to be
identified because of those affiliations.

Michael Maistelman, a Wisconsin campaign attorney,
agreed.

“The number of questionable and possibly illegal
transactions conducted on behalf of Herman Cain is
staggering,” said Maistelman, a Democrat who has
represented politicians from both parties on campaign
issues.”

http://www.jsonline.com/watchdog/noquarter/state-firms-cash-to-herman-cain-may-breach-federal-campaign-tax-laws-132898423.html

But that’s not surprising given his connections to the Koch Brothers and his campaign manager Mark Block, from Huffpo:
“Block has been accused of voter suppression and was banned from running Wisconsin political campaigns for three years to settle accusations he coordinated a judge’s re-election campaign with a special interest group.

Records show Block has faced foreclosure on his home, a tax warrant by the Internal Revenue Service and a lawsuit for an unpaid bill. He also acknowledges he was arrested twice for drunken driving.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/28/mark-block-herman-cain-chief-of-staff_n_1063425.html

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