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Ear to the Ground

A Candid Pollster: ‘We Suck’

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Posted on Apr 23, 2008

We all know pollsters get it wrong from time to time, but you have to hand it to Public Policy Polling for refreshing candor. After the results were in, the only major polling group to predict an Obama victory in Pennsylvania posted on its blog: “ ... please do not call us or e-mail us and tell us we suck! We are well aware, and it does not feel good.”

The rest of the post offers some insight into how pollsters arrive at the numbers they publish. Apparently the problem wasn’t that PPP got bad information, but that it overestimated the turnout among two categories of voters.

(h/t: Political Wire)

Public Policy Polling:

First off, please do not call us or e-mail us and tell us we suck! We are well aware, and it does not feel good.

It’s pretty easy, based on the exit polls, to see where we went wrong. We had the black vote at 18% when it turned out to be 14-15%, and we had the under 45 vote at 41% when it turned out to be 31%.

I reweighted the results from our final Pennsylvania poll to those figures for race and age, and the result of our poll was flipped- Hillary leading 49-46. Assume she pulled 60% of the undecideds and that gives her the 52-48 lead that the extrapolation from the original exit polls does.

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By DennisD, April 24 at 2:16 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

A Candid Pollster: ‘We Suck’

I think we all already know that. I’m amazed that someone actually pays for useless polling information.

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By Outraged, April 24 at 7:17 am #
(869 comments total)

The day before the primary in PA, the Huffington Post ran this story:

“All the polls this weekend show Hillary Clinton leading in Pennsylvania, but Obama’s the one drawing the crowds. On Friday, he spoke to the largest group on the campaign so far-- 35,000, assembled in Independence Park, spilling onto the street-- and Sunday in Reading he drew about 2600. Clinton’s drew an estimated 1500 at a high school a few miles away the day before.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kelly-nuxoll/in-pa-its-p oll-numbers-ve_b_97699.html

> Now they want us to BELIEVE that Obama is attracting crowds in the TENS of thousands, while Clinton attracts a measly 1500 yet she won the primary..?!  This is so inane it’s pathetic.  Let’s not forget Mark Penn has been involved in all types of election fraud.

From Global Research:
“The curious career of Mark Penn”

“The figure of Mark Penn is revealing as to what the machine of Hillary Clinton represents in terms of power politics. Penn had been a political adviser of the Clintons since managing Bill Clinton’s 1996 re-election fight. His firm ran the election polls that helped define Clinton’s campaign strategy, itself a cynical modern US electoral innovation, updating with high tech means the motto, “tell the people what they want to hear.” Penn’s polling firm, Penn, Schoen and Berland (PSB) has been used by Britain’s Tony Blair, Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi, by Menachim Begin in Israel and Senator Joe Lieberman to shape election strategy.

PSB has played a pioneering role in the use of polling operations, especially “exit polls,” in facilitating various US-backed “Color Revolutions” in Serbia and elsewhere. Its primary mission is to shape the perception that the group installed into power in a targeted country has broad popular support. The PSB group began work in Serbia during the period when Mark Penn, was President Clinton’s top political advisor.

“Manipulating exit polls

The PSB website boasts that they, “have played critical roles behind the scenes of the elections in Serbia and Zimbabwe, helping the opposition parties craft strategies, messages and organize a credible and effective campaign .....techniques is as well as the advice of the best Western political consultants and image makers, is as potent a weapon as the planes, bombs, and intelligence technology ..... In short, PSB is at the cutting edge of the modern politics of images.

In 2004 it was PSB which ran the “exit polls” in Venezuela asserting even as voting was still open, that their polls showed “major defeat for Chavez.” The opposite was the case with Chavez winning an overwhelming 59%. Investigation revealed that Penn’s PSB had emailed and faxed their poll results to international media four hours before polls were to close proclaiming, on the basis of the fraudulent polls that Chavez had lost. That was in violation of Venezuelan election law and was intended to rally international support behind a campaign to declare Chavez guilty of vote fraud and organize a recall. It backfired and PSB came under public fire as a result.

Referring to Mark Penn, the influential Washington Post once referred to him as “the most powerful man in Washington you’ve never heard of.” According to PSB’s website, Penn helped elect 15 overseas Presidents in the Far East, Latin America, and Europe. Clients include heads of state or opposition politicians in Greece, Turkey, Israel, the Philippines, the Dominican Republic, Bermuda and Yugoslavia.”

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va& aid=8595

>Did you catch that comment in the paragraph above the subtitle “Manipulating Exit Polls”. “PSB has played a pioneering role in the use of polling operations, especially “EXIT POLLS,” in facilitating various US-BACKED “COLOR REVOLUTIONS” in Serbia and elsewhere.” (emphasis mine)

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By Outraged, April 23 at 9:40 pm #
(869 comments total)

Another take of the PA numbers, maybe the PPP estimation wasn’t THAT off:

“The following e-mail I received just today is cast in arcane language since it was addressed to people who have some appreciation for exit polls (EPs) and statistical margins of error (MOEs), but in summary what this great mind has deduced from careful study of the facts is this: Comparing the PA exit polls with the official PA vote count shows clearly that this primary was stolen (with some complicity by the exit pollsters) just sufficiently to keep Hillary in the race:

“With 99% pcts reporting, voila! we have Hillary at that magic 10% plateau (55% - 45%).
Recall that unadjusted EPs had it at Clinton 51.6% Obama 47.8%--a very different outcome
in terms of race dynamics, and the red shift is just at the edge of the EP’s MOE (meaning that you really wouldn’t expect it to be that far out, but it’s not statistically impossible).

“But wait, as they say on late-night tv, there’s more: Remember the age breakdown of that first EP (10% 18-29, 17% 30-44, 73% 45+)? That is an older electorate than I have ever seen, even in FL
or AZ; and of course older skews toward Clinton, so even that first exit poll looks as if it probably heavily oversampled Clinton voters. (Actually, what they did was, however they actually sampled, they just weighted the responses to those bizarre age demographics, which has the effect of boosting the apparent Clinton vote in the process.)

“So what happened to all those young and first-time voters that we were told were turning out in droves? Do we really believe that three out of every four voters was 45 or older?? For that matter,
do we really believe that 59% of the voters were women (although this is somewhat less bizarre)? What it adds up to is an initial EP that looks as if it was demographically weighted to increase the Clinton vote (a kind of pre-adjustment, which is a new wrinkle of sorts), and yet that still fell a full MOE short of the ‘actual vote.’ One can only imagine what the discrepancy would have been with an honest EP!”

Link to full article:  http://www.markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/

If you’re interested a 30 min. video of Mark Crispin Miller speaking on election fraud.
http://www.revver.com/video/623510/mark-crispin-miller -election-integrity-talk-in-la/

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By cyrena, April 23 at 10:38 pm #
(4164 comments total)

Re:

THANKS (again) Outraged! I won’t pretend to be among those that can grasp all of the intricacies of the data in election polling. (I do better with other social science survey and research stuff, but even that I prefer to leave to the statisticians.)

Still, despite the fact that I would never know how to ‘fix’ a poll or an election, I can sure figure out and follow the basics from what you’ve presented here for us. (I watched the video as well).

Ya know, I just so damn sick and tired of these CHEATERS!! How in the hell do they get away with this, unless we are simply a totally oppressed society? This reminds me of Saddam Hussein’s nearly 40 year reign. They actually had an ‘election’ and of course he always ‘won’ 99.9% of the ‘vote.’ I can think of the same with other fascist regimes.

After nearly a decade of this, (that can be documented) how exactly can anyone believe that we are any different? I feel a revolution coming if Hillary or McCain tries to get away with this shit this time around.

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By Outraged, April 23 at 8:42 pm #
(869 comments total)

The article comments:  “The networks have called it for Hillary and I think after Florida in 2000 they’re not going to make that mistake again, so obviously our polls were wrong.”

>Were they..?  What “mistake” did they make in 2000?  I found this which proves their “accuracy”. It ledes this way:

“Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything.” Communist Tyrant Josef Stalin

ABC Posted Results One Day Before Election
February 24, 2000 NA (Network America) e-wire

“So what? So if one set of numbers can be pre-programmed into the computers as a “test”, another set can be pre-programmed in as the “final results” to be unveiled on Election night, - after the manipulated Big Media public opinion polls and phony election day “exit polls” (both also conducted by the Big Media) have prepared the public mind for such “final results.”

With all those honest blue collar and white collar employees working at ABC and the other Big networks both during the Monday pre-election test AND during the Tuesday Election night, the Media Moguls couldn’t throw up the exact same numbers - it would be too obvious that everything was fixed. But maybe after 25 years of “success” in overseeing computerized elections, our high-tech Rulers are getting a little lazy - and only changing a few of the numbers for the Monday night test? You decide:

Some of ABC’s Election Eve “Test” Results were amazingly Accurate

“Once again,” wrote Dean McCullough, a reporter for Wired, an important computer magazine, “the Net had it first, this time by accident.”

Ingrid Rimland posted on her internet Zundelsite (webcom.com/ezundel/english) an article by Adam Clayton Powell III: ABC News’ Election Eve ‘Net’ “Mistake”.

Powell skewered ABC mercilessly on the day after the Tuesday election:

“With almost all election districts reporting, those phony ABC News test numbers on Monday accurately matched the outcomes of the Senate and governor races in 61 of 70 contests - 87%. It would be difficult to find a political analyst, pundit, or bookie who even came close.

“While every major analyst on Sunday was predicting the Republicans would pick up anywhere from one to four Senate seats this week, ABC’s test numbers on Monday had it right on the money: a 55-45 GOP-Democrat split, for no net change.

“Even more remarkable, in some of the most closely watched contests, ABC News election eve “test” numbers matched the final count almost precisely - within one percentage point.

“In the Florida Governor’s race, Jeb Bush beat Buddy McKay by 55% to 45% - the exact final result rehearsed by ABC News on Monday night. In Texas, Jeb’s brother George won by 69% to Mauro’s 30% - the very result used in the ABC rehearsal on Monday.

“ABC News rehearsal numbers also matched the exact final results to within one percentage point in the governors’ races in Alabama, Colorado, Wisconsin and Wyoming.”

Rimland returned to comment: “I well remember the agonies of Statistics 101 ... As I remember my lessons, the galaxies would not have sufficed to explain the outcomes cited [i.e. the accuracy of ABC’s ‘test’ numbers on Monday night when compared to the final ‘results’ on Tuesday night."]"

http://www.votefraud.org/News/2000/2/022400.html

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