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Ear to the Ground

Sadr Cuts a Deal

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Posted on Mar 30, 2008

Moqtada al-Sadr, after reaching an agreement with several Iraqi officials, has ordered his followers to stop fighting. Basra has reportedly quieted, but fighting continued in Baghdad despite the announcement. Underscoring Iran’s influence over the affairs of its neighbor, the deal was apparently brokered by the head of Iran’s Quds force, which the U.S. Congress has branded a terrorist organization.

The fighting in recent days has been described as a test of wills between Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Sadr. The announcement of a brokered agreement adds weight to the view that Maliki will emerge from the conflict weakened.


New York Times:

The substance of Mr. Sadr’s statement, released Sunday afternoon, was hammered out in elaborate negotiations over the past few days with senior Iraqi officials, some of whom traveled to Iran to meet with Mr. Sadr, according to several officials involved in the discussions.

Still, though fighting was reported to have died down by late afternoon in Basra, it continued in Baghdad, including heavy combat by Iraqi and American troops and aircraft in the Mahdi Army stronghold of Sadr City, casting uncertainty on the deal.

The negotiations with Mr. Sadr were seen as a serious blow for Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, who had vowed that he would see the Basra campaign through to a military victory and who has been harshly criticized even within his own coalition for the stalled assault.

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Other sources:

The BBC says a strict curfew in Baghdad has ended because of the deal.

USA Today reports that a prominent Iranian official oversaw the negotiations.

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By Marshall, March 31, 2008 at 2:51 pm Link to this comment

Yes, the U.S. is taking sides in a turf war.  We’re taking the side of the Iraqi govt. obviously; there’s no other side to take, though it’s not impossible that Sadr might join this alliance at some point in the future as there are common interests here.

In the meantime, we have no choice but to remain to help keep order and recruit, train, equip, and test the govt. forces so that they’ll be in the best position to maintain order when we eventually draw down.  I’ll say it again: Iraqi public opinion is trending UP, which means that Iraqis are less and less resenting our presence.  This is a positive that the U.S. needs to exploit to help facilitate a political solution in the time we have.

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By DennisD, March 31, 2008 at 2:25 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Anyone that doesn’t want to go along with the corporate world control program.

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amunaor's avatar

By amunaor, March 31, 2008 at 12:58 pm Link to this comment

**By Marshall: Wow - so AQ is just doing God’s work the only way they know how?  And the fault is ours for having such a good military?  So now that you’ve announced that you side with AQ, are you hoping they approach you to lead a new U.S. based cell?

Typical, blind fear-monger response!

AQ is an all purpose nemeses whose specter is raised to incite the fundamentalist warriors to do god’s work for the corporate empire.

Remember the history of AQ, it is at its foundation, a creature of the CI of A.

I announce nothing, other than your own blindness!

Peace, Best Wishes and Hope

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By Gmonst, March 31, 2008 at 12:44 pm Link to this comment

“Probably the main reason Sadr decided to stop fighting the Iraqi govt. is that the U.S. military was becoming more heavily involved in the conflict and he knew this would be a losing proposition for him.”

It boils down to the US taking sides in a turf war.  The so called Iraqi govt. by all accounts got their asses beat and had to get Iran to help them calm things down.  The United States is not contributing anything meaningful to this situation.  Our continued presence there only serves to exacerbate the situation and put off the inevitable struggle for power that is going to ensue. That power struggle is going to happen sooner or later.  We can try to stack the cards in the direction of US interests, but the continued presence will continue to turn the minds of Iraqis against us.  The longer that happens the more likely the future Iraq is going to hold some strong hostilities toward the US. 

“I believe the bombs are being dropped on Sadr’s people in cooperation with the Iraqi govt.”

Have you seen the neighborhoods they live in?  They are tight and densely populated.  Anytime bombs are dropped on areas like that it is guaranteed that innocent people are going to die.  They know who the jets and helicopters belong too, and it does nothing to improve their opinion of the US.

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By Eso, March 31, 2008 at 12:14 pm Link to this comment

In WP 3/30, Zbg Brznski: “The case for U.S. disengagement from combat is compelling in its own right. But it must be matched by a comprehensive political and diplomatic effort to mitigate the destabilizing regional consequences of a war that the outgoing Bush administration started deliberately, justified demagogically and waged badly.” This has nothing to do with AQ, except that we keep creating and recreating it with ever more bomb-ass. Bush has lost face before the world, let us face it. Let not the U.S. lose face by supporting him.

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By Marshall, March 31, 2008 at 12:06 pm Link to this comment

“Its clearer than ever that the Iraqis will be able to deal with their own problems and power struggles when we are gone.”

Just the opposite.  Probably the main reason Sadr decided to stop fighting the Iraqi govt. is that the U.S. military was becoming more heavily involved in the conflict and he knew this would be a losing proposition for him.

“Dropping Bombs on people doesn’t usually endear their friendship.”

I believe the bombs are being dropped on Sadr’s people in cooperation with the Iraqi govt.  The Iraqi people, according to the most recent polls, are actually quite confident about their country’s future right now, pretty much mirroring U.S. public opinion.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=1258

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By Marshall, March 31, 2008 at 11:45 am Link to this comment

Wow - so AQ is just doing God’s work the only way they know how?  And the fault is ours for having such a good military?  So now that you’ve announced that you side with AQ, are you hoping they approach you to lead a new U.S. based cell?

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By Dr. Knowitall, PhD, PhD, March 31, 2008 at 11:18 am Link to this comment

Whoever the US declares to be “the terrorists” are the terrorists. 

alQaida is simply a group of zealots who are no match for the US military and are doing the only thing they can to advance their agenda. Much the same as American patriots who are at their wits end with this tyranny might ultimately do.  They’re certainly not going to fight out in the open.  We’ve already learned that the ballot box doesn’t work.

When you brand a bunch of raggle-taggles as “terrorists,” you then justify every one of your actions and inactions having done that.  And especially if they’re “radical Muslim exteremists.”
Our government is so transparent it makes me sick.

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By Eso, March 31, 2008 at 10:50 am Link to this comment

There is something very strange about the attack on Basra by the Maliki govt, seeing that it followed Chaney’s visit to Iraq, who, I am guessing of course, was told of the coming attack before he arrived in Iraq and approved of it while in Iraq. Sadr was apparently taken by surprise, hence his reaction, which was also obviously preplanned and more or less automatic. Nevertheless, the fighting made it obvious that Maliki’s forces are weak and could be held in check by Sadr, perhaps even destroying the Maliki govt. Paradoxically, a Sadr victory is not in the interest of Iran, which does not want war, hence the deal that was brokered by Quds. The next “happening” depends how the U.S. reacts to the deal. It can mean a continuation of the cease fire, on the other hand, ....

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By amunaor, March 31, 2008 at 10:33 am Link to this comment

*....the deal was apparently brokered by the head of Iran’s Quds force, which the U.S. Congress has branded a terrorist organization.)

Who is the real terrorist in this equation? Perhaps Congress should look itself in the mirror and ponder the question of how it would feel or react to a belligerent force parked off our coasts; occupying and plowing indiscriminately through our cities and blasting the population into submission to its installed puppet dictator.

Peace, Best Wishes and Hope

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By Gmonst, March 31, 2008 at 9:03 am Link to this comment

This whole incident has really filled me with the feeling that this war is over.  The only thing is for the Bush administration and the republicans to figure it out and pull out.  Its clearer than ever that the Iraqis will be able to deal with their own problems and power struggles when we are gone.  There may be skirmishes but this indicates that more than anything the Iraqis want peace, stability, and self-rule.  That is never going to happen as long as we are there playing instigator.  The trouble is the Bush administration wants the icing on the plunder cake, and that means having a government in Iraq “sympathetic” to US interests, so the plunder can continue.  That outcome becomes less likely by the day.  Sooner or later the facts must be faced, the Iraq that is going to emerge from this debacle is going to have close ties with Iran and the people of Iraq are not likely to be sympathetic to US interests any time soon.  Dropping Bombs on people doesn’t usually endear their friendship.

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By Blackspeare, March 31, 2008 at 8:50 am Link to this comment

If its true that Sadr made a deal with the Maliki government with al Quds acting as the intermediary, then it just affirms the old Middle Eastern adage——“The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”  Though Sadr and his Mahdi Army are Shia and the Irani al Quds operatives are Shia they are natural enemies by virtue of one being Arab and the other Persian and even their Shia beliefs are somewhat different.  However, they do have a common enemy——-the good old US of A!

It’s nice to be able to bring people together.

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By cyrena, March 30, 2008 at 10:37 pm Link to this comment

Pretty amazing, and overwhelmingly impressive from my own viewpoint.

How ironic (though not a surprise) that such a ‘deal’ would be brokered by the Iranians. (and the Quds force no less).

And we say that the Iraqis are NOT taking responsibility for their own survival? I guess that would depend on which “IRAQIS” we’re talking about. The US controlled puppet government as represented by Maliki, or the people that make up the remaining population of Iraq, who have been rendered helpless by the military might of the US in the invasion and occupation of their nation.

How would anyone in their right mind NOT expect them to seek the help of their neighbors? If a stranger broke into my house, and proceeded to steal my stuff, and kill my family and destroy my home in the process, I’d get help from…MY NEIGHBORS. (at least when all other ‘established by protocol’ help failed to arrive, such as the UN).

The problem of course, (noted in this piece) is the continuing assault (on Sadr City and other parts of Baghdad) by the US military with its mighty air power and bombs. That has been the ‘problem’ from the beginning; The destruction of the original Iraqi Military, which left the nation totally vulnerable to the military might of the US.

And, it could be the deal breaker, as the article notes. One cannot have a ‘cease fire’ if the mightier forces refuse to ‘cease’. We need only look at the 60-year old assault of Israel on Palestine to figure that out.

So yeah, Sadr can order the citizens of Iraq, (the people) to stop fighting, but if the US-Maliki forces continue, the expectation is that the majority of real Iraqis aren’t gonna just stand by and continue to be wiped out.

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