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Ear to the Ground

Clinton Holds the Line

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Posted on Mar 4, 2008
Obama and Clinton
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Hillary Clinton scored major victories Tuesday with three projected wins, including Ohio and Texas, which had been described by her campaign as must-win states. Barack Obama won the Vermont primary and kept it close in Texas.

Their speeches Tuesday night said everything. For the first time in weeks, Clinton got to talk like a winner and mean it. At the same time, Obama confidently asserted his lead in delegates, which is likely to remain.

The sometimes disorienting seesaw of cable news commentary has tilted once again toward Clinton, and to be sure it was a big night for her. But there are caveats.

For one, the math is still against her. That, of course, could change, but the next contest, in Wyoming, is a caucus, which should work to Obama’s advantage, and then it’s on to Mississippi, where he is expected to do well.

But the big prize and the next major battleground will be Pennsylvania. Clinton could do very well there, and will probably try to make what amounts to a closing argument for her candidacy.

Expect to hear a lot about big states as the campaign works its way toward them. Clinton has won more of those than Obama, and will argue that they are key to a Democratic victory in the general election.

Expect also to see more negative campaigning. It cannot be denied that Clinton’s “kitchen sink” offensive had an effect. Obama dropped precipitously in the polls as last-minute attack ads ranging in topic from NAFTA to national security rained down on Texas and Ohio.

Clinton is likely to stick with what works, but that could be a mistake. This was the only time in the campaign that going negative worked for her. And the “red phone” ad that has gotten so much attention, Republicans have pointed out, would sound better if it came from John McCain.

Speaking of whom: McCain has officially secured his party’s nomination, which means he’s free to campaign against the Democrats, who still have to campaign against each other. Until now, he has focused mainly on front-runner Obama, but he could aim his fire at Clinton, and will if she impresses too much. That might actually suit her better, as it gives her a target who is not beloved by her party.

Such a development would hurt Obama’s ability to lump McCain and Clinton together, which he attempted to do in his speech Tuesday night.

There is a major hurdle, though, that Clinton will have to face sooner or later as April approaches. Despite her campaign’s protestations, Clinton has repeatedly stalled on the release of her tax returns and her White House schedule. It seems obvious at this point that there is some piece of information in those documents that is embarrassing to her—enough to get her to recant on a pledge, as she did last week. Either that, or it is the most ingenious of political diversions.

Polls have shown that Democrats love their candidates and don’t want them to drop out of the race. America, it seems, doesn’t want the Clinton-Obama show to end. On Tuesday, it got its wish.

CNN:

Sen. Hillary Clinton got her campaign back on track with projected wins in the Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island primaries.

Delegate-rich Texas and Ohio were considered must-wins for her campaign.

Obama had won 12 straight contests since Super Tuesday on February 5.
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By Expat, March 5, 2008 at 12:12 am Link to this comment

^ really happening?  I thought this was another myth/cum fact.  It does play to a worry (for me); McCain may be able to beat Hillary.  Oh boy, only the dems could do this; snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

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By bert, March 5, 2008 at 12:08 am Link to this comment

It is amazing that so many of the posts tonight just made an assumption that crossover votes in Texas went to Hillary.

According to Cal Lanier over at the perfect world blog, Obama has been winning caucuses/primaries with the help of three groups:    “While the media has reported that Senator Obama’s demographic support has improved over time, it has thus far neglected to report that the racial split in the Democrat nomination has been clear and unyielding. Senator Obama has won his delegates based almost entirely on three voting groups: blacks, white educated liberals, and white independent/Republican crossovers.”

Without the independent/Republican crossover votes Obama would not be winning as many delegates as he has been.

I have only cited one small part of Mr. Lanier’s work. I leave it to those REALLY interested in winning the WH in Novemeber to go visit the site and read the entire article and see his chart listing raw votes by category for yourselves. The title of his article is:  “The Demographics of the Democrat Primary” by Carl Lanier and is at the perfect world.com.

Hillary, according to Lanier has been getting the votes of tradition General Election Democratic voters.

IF Hillary won with the help of R’s tonight, and I will wait to make a determination of that until the votes are analyzed, then she is no different than Obama. But I bet there were fewer R crossover votes for her than for him.

There were also reports tonight that the Obama campaign did a telephone canvas of Republicans in Ohio today telling them they could vote in the democratic primary and to go vote for Obama.

I don’t know about you, but I do not want Republicans chosing the Democratic nominee. In fact, Republicnas should not be choosing our nominee. They should not even be allowed to vote in the Democratic primary.

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By lib in texas, March 5, 2008 at 12:04 am Link to this comment

cyrena, outraged, aegrus, mid city mike, nothing to say huh!  I for one am so happy Hillary kicked Osama Hussein Obama’s arse tonight.  I hope all have caught on to the flash in the pan. 

To steal from you Maani PEACE!!!!!!

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By cyrena, March 4, 2008 at 11:36 pm Link to this comment

ekdar,

Are you responding to the same article, or has your hate eaten through to your brain as well?

This article isn’t claiming any ‘wins’ for Obama, so where to you get that ‘Obama wins, no surprise’?

He won Vermont, but it looks like Hillary managed to get the official ‘win’ in Ohio. At least that’s what this article and the MSM is saying. This claims that she’s taken the win in step one of the Texas exercise as well.

So, how do you come off with…Obama wins? Yeah, he DID win his 12th in a row, after Vermont. But…I’m not sure what your point is. Do you even have one?

Do you drink alot, or is it just the hate that has deteriorated your mind?

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By cyrena, March 4, 2008 at 11:29 pm Link to this comment

Outraged,

Personally, I think all of your MAYBES, are all TRUTHS, which is exactly why Dennis got run out of the race early on.

HOWEVER…I ALSO believe that his ideals and principles will prevail. There’s more than one way to skin a cat or exterminate skunks and other dangerous pests. Teamwork.

Meantime, here’s a speech that Dennis delivered in Los Angeles recently.

http://www.commondreams.org/views02/0226-09.htm

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By Groovesmoothly, March 4, 2008 at 11:03 pm Link to this comment

...in Texas very closely. I love our 2 step because it has the potential to really promote grassroots involvement in our democracy. The open primary, on the other hand, has got to go.

I know in my 85% republican precinct they came out in droves for Hillary today. I was in line behind 9 elderly self proclaimed republican women who wanted to make sure they could vote for McCain in November if they voted for Hillary today. The poll workers I spoke with this evening verified this trend as well. Several of my wifes coworkers said they did the same thing, because Rush told them to. Geniuses. Fortunately most of those people weren’t likely to abandon American Idol to caucus for her tonight.

Hillary won my precinct primary with about 55% of the vote but lost the convention 103 to 95. That’s 198 people who showed up to caucus - compared to 6 in 2004.

Thank you Barack Obama for forcing the media to make Texas and America aware of this vital second step in our democratic process!

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By Outraged, March 4, 2008 at 10:49 pm Link to this comment

And the vitrol spews…....

A reality check:

“Because the truth is, Dennis Kucinich has the best voting record in Congress of anyone from a mostly white, ethnic district. No one else who shares most of Kucinich’s positions—even those who are much less outspoken than he is—also has a district like his. He’s not from Berkeley or Madison. He doesn’t have a huge, liberal base constituency. Dennis Kucinich is consistently braver than his district would suggest he should be; and perhaps no other progressive is as brave compared to the people they represent. If you disagree, I offer impeachment as an example. Or gay marriage. Or animal rights. Or the abolition of nuclear weapons. Or a ban on weapons in space. Or his early opposition to pre-emptive war.

Maybe those brave votes are a big part of the reason that Kucinich currently has four opponents for his House seat, including at least one who’s being massively funded by outside corporate interests. Maybe his tough race is not all due to his absences, but to his outspokenness. Maybe it’s not his ears but his votes. Maybe it’s not his size that irritates the big corporate boys but his willingness to act on his beliefs.

Maybe the special interest money that’s pouring into Cleveland these days for his opponents is not really because they’re dissatisfied with his constituent service but because they don’t like his commitment to ending the war economy; because they’re irritated by his feistiness on behalf of canceling NAFTA, for fair trade, for living wages, for card-check union organizing; or because they hate his years of leadership on behalf of getting the insurance and drug companies out of people’s healthcare.”

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080303/cobble

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By ekdar, March 4, 2008 at 7:02 pm Link to this comment

Yes, Obabma wins as expected.

Now for the better news:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080305/ap_on_el_ge/primaries_congress

Kucinich faces tough challenge in Ohio

By JULIE CARR SMYTH, Associated Press Writer

COLUMBUS, Ohio - Dennis Kucinich, the liberal Ohio politician who made two failed White House campaigns, fought Tuesday in the Democratic primary to keep his seat against the toughest, best-financed challenger in his 12-year congressional career.

Although the presidential primary commanded most of the nation’s attention, Kucinich’s race was the best known congressional contest on ballots in Ohio and Texas.

For years, the 61-year-old Kucinich has won re-election by margins of up to 75 percent in a reliably Democratic district.

But after sensing early that Joe Cimperman was a formidable opponent, Kucinich abandoned his presidential campaign on Jan. 25, months earlier in the race than he did in 2004, when he also was polling in low one-digit numbers.

Joe Cimperman, a Cleveland City Council member and former Kucinich admirer, raised nearly $500,000 and landed high-profile endorsements from the mayor and the city’s daily newspaper.

“Mr. Kucinich is not a congressman. He’s a showman,” said Cimperman, 37, who has belittled Kucinich’s Hollywood ties and criticized congressional votes Kucinich missed during his presidential campaigns.
======================

Maybe, finally, Kucinich will be retired by the people of his district who know him very, very well, and need someone effective to represent them in COngress. Kucinich needs to go home.

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