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Zogby: Clinton Isn’t Done Yet

Posted on Feb 13, 2008

Pollster John Zogby has crunched the numbers and he’s impressed by Barack Obama’s string of election victories, but he says “this deal is not closed” because Hillary “is after all a Clinton—she and her husband are popular, dogged, able campaigners.”

The Obama campaign has adjusted its message and is now trying to suggest that it would be nearly impossible for Clinton to catch up without the help of superdelegates. That could be true, but the momentum could also turn if she has a strong showing in Ohio and Texas.

Indeed, both candidates—and voters, as well—have routinely defied the conventional wisdom throughout this campaign.


Has Barack Obama won the Democratic presidential nomination?

It is certainly tempting to make this conclusion based on his amazing string of victories on Saturday and Tuesday evening.

But the short answer to the question has to be no.

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By laughoutloud, February 14, 2008 at 2:58 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

if the delegate count is at all close enough that they have to go to the ‘super-delegates’, hillary is as good as in.  the super-delegates are not going to choose obama because they have no time for him or the change he talks about ushering in to washington.  these super delegates are the same people who talk tough against the bush administration, yet support everything he does, or don’t speak out against what he does because they are all part of the ruling elite (ie. pelosi).  they have worked too hard for too long to let someone who isn’t in their circle take the reins.  heaven forbid someone come in and reverse the bush tax cut, which hillary will not do.  as i’ve said before, this is not a left vs. right issue, its rich vs. poor, and the rich are going to win everytime until the masses are so down-trodden that they physically move on their leaders, and thats not going to happen for quite some time, people are far too comfortable being spoon-fed the reality that the powers that be have created for them.  so, bloggers, save some time and energy and just accept the fact that hillary is going to get the nomination, and ultimately get placed in to the white house, because that is what is supposed to happen.  see you in november.

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By Louise, February 14, 2008 at 2:56 pm Link to this comment

Thanks for sharing that bit of wisdom.

Who says there isn’t truth to be found in that golden liquid? Certainly it does take the edge of the pain.

Gosh, lots of us could belong to almost all those party’s. Well except maybe the young and the millionaires, although I understand cyrena just “fell” into a bit of money. Hee-hee! smile

Anyway, I needed a good chuckle.
Thanks again!

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By Sue Cook, February 14, 2008 at 12:38 pm Link to this comment

No, in answer to your question about Zogby polls.
There usually more correct than any others.

In fact, he’s not a Hillary lover, to the contrary, those two had a fallen out some years back and never really got on the same band-wagon again.

Which makes this story from him very interesting.

He’s stating the truth about what you can expect from Hillary and the Clinton’s

Don’t ever count them out. It’s not over till it’s over and I predict a complete turn around in the coming primary’s.

This thing will go all the way to the covention.

Good news for Hillary for a change!

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By Greg Bacon, February 14, 2008 at 10:34 am Link to this comment

All Things Considered

Last year, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton took the unusual step of renting out some of her lists. The transaction once again highlights the Clintons’ connections to a businessman who now faces questions from the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Reports from Clinton’s campaign show that on Dec. 3, it collected payment for renting out three mailing lists, the sale of which netted them $8,225.

It was an unusual transaction, according to Roger Craver, a liberal guru of the political direct-mail industry.

“As a general rule, a campaign will not let its donor list out into the markets until the campaign is over,” he said. “This is the mother’s milk of small-gift fundraising, and they use these lists frequently.”

There are no records that any other presidential candidates rented out mailing lists last year.

According to one direct-mail professional, $800,000 would have seemed like a more plausible price for a quality list. A political consultant suggested that the list broker’s unidentified client could have rented the list as a sample one — to do a test-run mailing.

But most intriguing of all was the renter of the Clinton list: a list brokerage company that is a subsidiary of one of the data-collection industry titans, Info U.S.A.

Info U.S.A.‘s CEO is Vinod Gupta, a close ally of both Clintons. Gupta’s empire also includes the Opinion Research Corporation, which conducts the political polling for the television network CNN.

Vin Gupta has a long history of giving and raising campaign money for the Clintons, and gave $1 million for the 2000 Millennium Celebration, a New Year’s Party thrown by the Clintons.

When he was president, Bill Clinton named Gupta to the Kennedy Center board of directors. Gupta also got to sleep in the Lincoln bedroom. He gave another million to the Clinton Presidential Library.

The library is run by the National Archives, but Bill Clinton raised the money for its construction and always refused to identify his major donors.

Last fall, ABC News reported that the library rented out a portion of its donor list to a list broker — the same one that rented Hillary Clinton’s campaign lists.

Gupta spent $900,000 of corporate money flying the Clintons to various destinations. The Clinton campaign said in May that Info U.S.A. had been reimbursed to comply with federal campaigning and ethics rules.

After the Clintons left the White House, Gupta hired Bill Clinton as a consultant. It’s one of two continuing business relationships he has had since leaving office, and it has been worth $3.3 million, in addition to the options on 100,000 shares of stock.

Kevin Starke is a stock analyst in Connecticut who follows Gupta’s company.

“If it were me, and I had hired Bill Clinton to the tune of $3 million, I think I would try to make a fairly distinct case for why that was money well spent, and I’m not entirely clear on why he hasn’t done so,” Starke said.

The corporate spending on behalf of the Clintons helped fuel a shareholder lawsuit against Gupta and 10 corporate directors.

It has led to an informal inquiry by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is also asking if Gupta misspent corporate funds.

“It’s not a company that’s threatened with bankruptcy or anything like that. It needs probably to be run with more of a view toward generating value for all shareholders, and not just the main shareholder,” Starke said.

Info U.S.A. did not respond to interview requests this week.

The Clinton campaign said Wednesday that the lists were rented out by her 2006 Senate campaign committee — and that the rentals took place before she began her formal campaign for president last January.

That would mean the rental fees went unpaid for at least 11 months. Starke, the analyst, cites Info U.S.A. data showing that on average, it settles accounts within 64 days.

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By Conservative Yankee, February 14, 2008 at 9:23 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Maybe the business-shill will turn on the tears again to get some feminine support.

She would be a fool to “go negative” as her negatives are more exploitable.

Texas, where some ripped-off Enron employees still live, is fertile ground for negative Hill-the-business-shill ads.  AND Texans, by-&-large, are not offended by negative.

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By omop, February 14, 2008 at 8:42 am Link to this comment

If we continue to persist in partitioning America into the latinos, the jews, the women, the blacks, the fundamentalists, the young, the old, etc,. We as a society need to be honest and practical about this comic book America.

Either apply these distinctions across the board or we best get over it.

One way is to establish political parties along these lines; a latino party; the Jews already have AIPAC; the black party; the womens party; the party of the young; the party of the old. The party of the millionaires as well as the party of the homeless. Is that not a non-hypocritical as well as a more “democratic” representation of the people that make up America?

Cousin Jethro who claims he first saw the light of day on the day whiskey was first bottled opines that if Hillary wins she will have first dibs on the small room and desk hubby Bill used while being serviced by a female aide who now has a hankering to be Hillary’s aide.

If it comes down to spook McCain and Hillary Cousin Jetrho says he will be voting for spook and moving to Iraq asap.
Where by the way all military personnel are just Americans.

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By Aegrus, February 14, 2008 at 6:59 am Link to this comment


Watch out, Hill-Supporters. Delegate counts are racking up on Obama’s side. Convert now! Come to the winning side! She just doesn’t have the campaign to win this year. Be staunch if you desire, but don’t be surprised if Hillary Clinton’s campaign goes belly up after Texas and Ohio.

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By cwhipps, February 13, 2008 at 11:56 pm Link to this comment

I saw John Zogby on Jon Stewart’s “A Daily Show” right after New Hampshire. When asked, “why we’re you so wrong, is polling dead?” he offered nothing in reply. It was an odd moment. Statisticians are by nature always possed of rationalizations for their existence.

I got the distinct feeling that he put a little juice on his numbers for something as questionably scientific as “the crowds were really big”. When he did it again in California, I knew what he was doing: he’s being paid to supress turnout by inflating the numbers.

Zogby has always been less pollster than prognosticator, offering detailed and sometimes philosphical explanations for his numbers at the Huffington Post. He’s become a sort of salesman for “maps to stars homes” in political celebrity.

I look when I drive by, but I never stop.

I think the Clinton’s made him an offer he couldn’t refuse.

If you want interesting statistical commentary, go here:

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By Fools on the Hill, February 13, 2008 at 10:36 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

While Zogby is crunching numbers, he is missing the Obama Tsunami.

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By cyrena, February 13, 2008 at 8:22 pm Link to this comment

Louise, more mental telepathy. Sometimes I wonder if you’re my ideological twin or something, just on the other coast. smile

At any rate, it was the ‘cult-like’ thing that irked me most, in part because I’m tired of hearing it. More than that, it’s an insult, as you’ve pointed out about Virginia Repugs, and so many others that have been forced to actually pay attention, because it’s like NOBODY is ‘comfortable’ these days. That’s how bad things have become. I don’t think that the Clinton’s ‘get’ the real mood of the American people. That of course, has been her downfall.

It’s the downfall of arrogance, and you put it so well here…

•  “And oh so entitled. A self assessment that comes through loud and clear…And incidentally, is not lost on the voters. “

Nope, it sure is NOT lost on the voters, and she’s digging her own grave as a result. I call it ‘assumptive arrogance’.

Meantime, it’s true that the ‘deal is still not closed’. I honestly can’t make even a close assessment on the mood or the socio-psychological-political persuasions of the people of Ohio. I used to have a better idea, but things change, and it’s been a long time.

I’m worried about Texas though, since I know or understand that mentality far better, having experienced it over an extended period of time. And the bottom line is that the basic concept of ‘change’ just doesn’t apply as proportionately to the Texas mentality. When I first returned to my native California, (after so many years in TX) a colleague made the comment that ‘Texas is a 3rd world country’. I honestly couldn’t argue his basic analogy. There are ‘pockets’ that are more progressive, (like Austin, and a few scattered others) but they are viewed in relation to the entire state as being in “the bubble”. There’s something to a very real sense. The history of the state explains it, but it took me a really long time to connect the dots. They aren’t immediately obvious.

That said, the demographics, (as predicted) could play out in Hillary’s favor, which is why she’s ignoring Wisconsin and Hawaii, in favor of putting all of her time and energy in Texas. Strategically, that makes sense, since for her, it’s only about WINNING for the power of the position, and not necessarily caring a whit about the will or the wants of the voters, nationwide. Not to mention the obvious…all of those delegates.

I remember expressing this same opinion, (when I was more naïve) back in December 2000, when the water cooler conversation, (in a Texas based corporation) was all up in arms about the Florida recount that the Rove machine had halted. (no way did they want that re-count). I couldn’t understand it at the time, expressing the opinion that it seemed to ME, that it would be BETTER for the Bush machine, to prove to the public that they HAD won the election legitimately. Everybody just looked at me like my ears were on backwards. Silly me, eh? What a foolishly noble concept.

Unfortunately, that still seems to be the name of the game there. It’s not how you play it or work it…it’s only about WINNING. Whatever it takes. That makes it a more familiar playing field for Hillary.

Anyway, it’s hard to say if enough of that population has awakened. We’ll see I guess.

Cult-like indeed. Why the very nerve of him!!

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By Akamai, February 13, 2008 at 7:25 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Isn’t Zogby the one pollster more wrong than any other (particularly California)?

But, let’s hope this keeps people afraid that “Hillaryland,” which I see as posing as much threat as our current “Stoopidland” administration, is still possible.

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By Douglas Chalmers, February 13, 2008 at 6:57 pm Link to this comment

“this deal is not closed” because Hillary “is after all a Clinton—she and her husband are popular, dogged, able campaigners…”

Hillary has had the luxury of learning from Bill’s mistakes while he took the heat and the flak. Obama might be learning from his mistakes but they are about to be pinned back onto him….. Rezko, Exelon, etc etc etc.

Oh well, maybe Michelle will make a good Dems candidate in a couple of decades…...??? By the wya, don’t forget that the age demographics in the USA have changed - except in Latino communities.

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By Louise, February 13, 2008 at 6:36 pm Link to this comment

“There is also an almost cult-like quality to Obama’s following.”

“He generates a lot of heat and excitement - but can he sustain it?”

“Will the press continue to love him tomorrow?”


This is almost funny! I wonder do all those republicans who voted for Obama in Virginia feel captured in a cult mentality?

No. I think they feel trapped in a never-ending cycle. And they want it to change.

One Virginia Mayor said on BBC just yesterday, “There aren’t many democrats in Virginia.” Wonder how he’s feeling today.

And one can hardly call the press demonstrating love for Obama. They have almost grudgingly followed his march foreword.


“Clinton is formidable.”

“She is after all a Clinton - she and her husband are popular, dogged, able campaigners.”


And oh so entitled. A self assessment that comes through loud and clear.

And incidentally, is not lost on the voters.

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By DennisD, February 13, 2008 at 6:26 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Zogby and the rest of these pollsters have been so far off I can’t believe someone actually pays them. Much like weathermen and politicians they still keep their job when they’re consistently wrong. Only in America.

Now if he’s referring to the “insider deal poll” aka the “super delegate poll” as to the preordained outcome of the campaign then that may be a different issue.

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By jackpine savage, February 13, 2008 at 6:13 pm Link to this comment

Well, it isn’t, but anybody who takes Zogby’s word for anything deserves whatever they get…

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By troublesum, February 13, 2008 at 6:03 pm Link to this comment

Not over?  I can hear the fat lady singing.

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