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May 25, 2013
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Momentum vs. Toughing It OutPosted on Feb 10, 2008With a win in the Maine caucuses, Barack Obama has scored four lopsided victories in a row and the map favors him for weeks to come. Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, responded to her troubles by replacing her campaign manager. Clinton now has to hold back Obama’s momentum long enough to win the big states weeks from now, a strategy that did not help Rudy Guiliani. Obama was expected to do well this weekend, but he more than exceeded expectations. He didn’t just sweep four contests, he blew Clinton out of the water, doubling her take in some states and winning by big margins in the rest. While much has been made of Obama’s support among African-American voters, he continues to do well in a variety of states. What do Louisiana, Nebraska and Maine have in common? The Obama campaign is hoping that a string of impressive victories will weaken Clinton in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas, where Latino and working-class voters could make the difference for her. Though a campaign shakeup is a sign of weakness, it might also do the trick. Remember that presumptive Republican nominee John McCain was widely considered to be out of the running when his campaign went broke and he was forced to restructure. Also, Clinton doesn’t need to win in order to force a decision by super delegates, where she enjoys an advantage. She just has to keep Obama from locking up the nomination.
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By Aegrus, February 11, 2008 at 2:40 pm Link to this comment
Very true about not electing a first lady. We also shouldn’t elect via rumors, but, if such slander is what motivates your vote, so be it your right.
I actually like Michelle Obama a whole lot. Sometimes, she seems to be able to incite even more inspiration than Barack. She’s got a lot of good qualities.
Republicans couldn’t use Rezko as invective. There will be some other nonsense swiftboating around, but not Rezko. No Republican will win, and especially not by advocating the poor.
Report thisBy lib in texas, February 11, 2008 at 2:25 pm Link to this comment
Aegrus, So you think bringing up Rezko is just folly?
Report thisHow about fodder for the repubs. So Hillary can’t
try to get black voters ? I heard a rumor today that Michele Obama is not with Barack that often because she is not really to nice to have around and she is demeaning even to Barack with loudness and meanness to who ever gets in her way so they keep her in the background as much as possible. Isn’t this what people are blaming Hillary for when she was first lady ?? Like I said, I read it on the internet but everything on the internet isn’t always true and we are not electing a first lady.
By Aegrus, February 11, 2008 at 2:03 pm Link to this comment
Marshall Law is on our horizon, maybe.
Report thisBy Aegrus, February 11, 2008 at 2:00 pm Link to this comment
These statements are all completely speculation and not based on reality. Hillary Clinton’s campaign has tried to smear and distort Obama’s record, and he is winning double-digit leads. Conservatives will fail as well.
No one is voting for Republicans. Republican voter turn-out is beyond pathetic in comparison to Democratic primary attendance. People are disillusioned with Bush Conservatism, and John McCain decided to align himself with King George’s administration now. John is a red herring.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton decided to can her Hispanic campaign manager for a black woman. Main idea is, Hillary believes cold-heartedly in identity politics, and is trying to get someone to help manager her campaign for the black audience. Too bad for Hillary Campaigners black people aren’t of one mind, and are capable of acting independently.
Bringing up Rezko again is just folly.
Report thisBy Aegrus, February 11, 2008 at 1:47 pm Link to this comment
Yeah, I love being proposed as a person with only rhetoric and no substance. This idea is particularly amusing since I’ve successfully called out how this primary season will play out. All that lack of substance I have must be helping.
We’re going to do very well in your state of Texas also. I haven’t marked it as a victory yet, but I don’t think an Obama victory is out of reach. There are a lot of rural voters, youth and migrants who will go for Barack. Identity politics won’t play as much of a factor here as people have tried make other state campaigns about.
The places we’re going to do well in are Ohio and Pennsylvania. These two swing states will factor very well under Obama’s superdelegate approval. Those two places have very high probabilities for Obama victories.
As long as Obama continues to gain double-digit leads state-to-state, Hillary’s house of cards will fall down. At this point in time, there is no reason to vote for Hillary. She will be assigned to other duties during Barack’s presidency.
Report thisBy Aegrus, February 11, 2008 at 1:35 pm Link to this comment
I don’t think so, as I’m unsure what part could be a pun.
Report thisBy jackpine savage, February 11, 2008 at 12:37 pm Link to this comment
Maani,
Let’s face the facts, the Republicans are going to smear either candidate to death if they can. And both have their weaknesses in that regard. Keep in mind that many of the younger voters don’t know the details of the scandals during the 90’s…they will be fresh meat all over again.
I don’t think that the Republicans are afraid of either candidate. Hell, they’re already stealing elections in their own primaries.
The only edge that i will give Obama in this regard is that he has what seems like a huge base of support and that is probably the best defense against the smear machine.
But i’m not going to lie to you, i fully expect a Republican presidency…regardless of the candidate. They will lie, steal, and cheat to win. Actually, i’m not even very sure that there will be an election, much less a free and fair one.
Report thisBy Maani, February 11, 2008 at 11:41 am Link to this comment
Lib:
You said, “If Obama gets nominated the republicans will win again. They will tear Obama up.”
I agree. In fact, I’m very confused by those here in the Obama camp. They claim that the right-wing WANTS to go up against Hillary, because they think they can beat her, and that they are “afraid” of Obama because they think he is a bigger threat.
If that is the case, why are some of the most rabid right-wing pundits and others - ncluding Bill Kristol, David Frum, Norman Podhoretz et al - all sounding hopeful about Obama winning the nomination?
That tells me that it is OBAMA that they want to go up against, because, despite polls to the contrary saying Obama would have an easier time beating McCain, Obama is a lightweight where “investigate and smear” attack campaigns are concerned. Indeed, look how much he bristles when members of his OWN party engage in even relatively minor “attack” tactics. As well, where there is one Rezko and one Exelon, there are others - providing fodder for the right-wing smear cannon.
Yup, you have it right. The GOP is just DROOLING to take on Obama. And although I am hopeful that EITHER of the Dem candidates can defeat McCain, it is less of a certainty with Obama.
Peace.
Report thisBy steve, February 11, 2008 at 11:31 am Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
Hillary or Barack or even George and Dick for the next eight years. What difference does it make??? Everything’s so corrupt now as it is and controlled by the Multinational Interests does it really make a difference????? Dick and the leaders in the Multinational Corporations run things now and aren’t going to give up that power no matter who is in charge. I can just see newly elected President Obama meeting the outgoing Administration on a cold day next January. “Now listen Mr Obama” says Dick as he puts his arm around Obama in a rather threatening way, “this is the way things are and this is the way things will be”. “Don’t try to change anything or else” Am I wrong???
Report thisBy Maani, February 11, 2008 at 11:29 am Link to this comment
Lib:
What Obama’s supporters don’t seem to understand is that “we” is nice rhetoric, but means ZERO in reality. Even if he did not “owe” anyone, once he got into office, it would be him - not his followers - making the decisions. It is as if his followers think that he is going to call them on the phone from the Oval Office and say, “Hi, Jane in Peoria, this is President Obama. I’m considering this or that policy or position. But since it is not about “me” but about “we,” I thought I’d call you to see what you think.”
Please! These people are so intoxicated by the fumes of his rhetoric that they cannot see how silly it is.
Peace.
Report thisBy Maani, February 11, 2008 at 11:25 am Link to this comment
Lib:
“I keep seeing Obama supporters doing the same thing Obama does, a lot of rhetoric but no substance.”
It might interest you to know that Obama’s campaign manager has specifically told the junior staffs and volunteers NOT to discuss “substantive” issues, but to keep “on point” with the rhetoric (“hope,” “change” etc.). And from my attempts to discuss policy issues with Obama volunteers here in NYC, it is clear they are either obeying or are hopelessly uninformed even about their own candidate’s policies and positions.
Peace.
Report thisBy lib in texas, February 11, 2008 at 10:11 am Link to this comment
Hank Van den Berg, Where have you been. The 90s were the best years we have had in decades. The republicans stole the 2000 election. Gore was elected president. If it hadn’t have been for fraud in Ohio, BIG Fraud in Florida and the suppreme court
Report thisthings would have been different. Someone said Obama would have advisors, like Bush had advisors?, Kennedy and Kerry advisors, humm I see no change you all are espousing. LOOK THIS UP!! Don’t believe me, see for yourselves!!!! What Change ? Ask Obama that.
I have yet to hear him say how and what.
By lib in texas, February 11, 2008 at 9:54 am Link to this comment
Expat, you think it is going to be “WE” if Obama gets in (GOD forbid). It will be I OWE you Kennedy’s, Kerry’s and the same old stuff that you Obama fans think is not there. Obama is a phony, he is a good orator and the blacks fall for it. The Rich know they can manipulate him and the white men are just plain Chauvinist. (these are his voters). Hopefully the middle class majority will win.
Report thisBy lib in texas, February 11, 2008 at 9:44 am Link to this comment
Thank you, I agree with you 100% Sue Cook. This is just an observation, but I keep seeing Obama supporters doing the same thing Obama does, a lot of rhetoric but no substance, a lot of untruths about Hillary.
Report thisThey can find out the truth just a easily as I, but they would rather pass on the untruths. (I am trying to avoid the word lie) If Obama gets nominated the republicans will win again. They will tear Obama up.
They won’t have to worry about race, or top echelon repubs coming down on them for dirty politics as that IS their game.
By jackpine savage, February 11, 2008 at 9:18 am Link to this comment
I like caucuses too, mostly because it allows communities to come together and discuss politics. Or maybe just because i’d be the asshole remaining uncommitted just to keep the debate going.
Report thisBy Sue Cook, February 11, 2008 at 8:23 am Link to this comment
Barack had a great pre-determined win over the weekend.
I was listening to his victory speech afterwards and found one thing he said very interesting about Hillary. “I liked Hillary Clinton before the campaign and I will continue to like her afterward.”
He said these same words during their last debate.
Are you kidding me? Most of the time at the mere mention of her name, his eyes casts daggers and what comes out his mouth is nothing short of contempt!
I think he can now be accused of saying almost anything to get the nomination.
His cult like attraction will surely start to flatten from his followers if some others phenomonom comes about at the time of the covention.
Let’s face it, rock star status entitlements will last as long as his naieve “hope” rhetoric will.
Both are short-coming.
And remember, huge crowds do not necessarily turn into votes.
Report thisBy Expat, February 11, 2008 at 7:22 am Link to this comment
Pun intended?
Report thisBy Aegrus, February 11, 2008 at 6:54 am Link to this comment
The Obama train is coming to town. No charge for entry. Direct course set for freedom, democracy and American values! All aboard! It’s a ride of a lifetime!
Okay, I’m not all that excited about these victories because the Ohio and Pennsylvania battlegrounds are more important to win. Still, this is what I said would happen, and I foresee the trend continuing for some time.
It’s funny how some people cry about the caucus states. Caucusing should be in every state as it is far more democratic, in my opinion. It’s not exactly made up of “party insiders” like some would have you think. Any kind of situation where a large group of people can openly argue for a candidate is good for Democracy and good for America.
Hillary performs badly with caucuses and Barack performs questionably in debates. That’s a hilarious coincidence.
Report thisBy Tony Wicher, February 10, 2008 at 10:58 pm Link to this comment
Yeah, variations on this “Obama is a Mulsim” rumor are all over the place. I have heard it in bars and other places. I heard two McCain supporters calling into CSPAN making similar statements. It’s some kind of radioactive sludge lying around in the group unconsious. Really dangerous shit.
Report thisBy Expat, February 10, 2008 at 10:18 pm Link to this comment
^ unfold. Another thing: This experience thing is way overblown; it could be a euphemism for establishment. The way I see it, judgment is the most important quality, followed by intelligence. The very lack of experience could be a tremendous asset; looking with fresh eyes. Its not like he wont have advisors (with experience) to listen to. Just the way hes running his campaign is evidence of a savvy player. As the new saw goes; I hope the dems dont snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Last comment; this experience thing is just another manipulation using Bushes favorite tactic, FEAR!!!!
Report thisBy jackpine savage, February 10, 2008 at 9:46 pm Link to this comment
Spot on. See, i don’t think that she believes that her Iraq war vote was wrong, and yeah, that’s been an albatross.
Obama is a relatively unknown quantity, but it appears that Americans are willing to take a chance on that.
And i agree wholeheartedly on her inability to defeat McCain. The X factor in that is while those of us old enough to remember the 90’s won’t be fooled by the Republicans retreading the old scandals, most people under 30 (even 35) don’t really know about them. They know of them, and probably something about the dress. It would be fresh meat for them.
On the other hand, i ran into a guy at the bar last night who told me that Obama was educated in the same madressa (sp?) that the 9/11 hijackers went to. But on the third hand, Obama has a mass of people squarely behind him…and that may be the best defense.
Report thisBy Tony Wicher, February 10, 2008 at 9:08 pm Link to this comment
This is a “viewpoint” I can’t even fathom.
Report thisBy Expat, February 10, 2008 at 9:06 pm Link to this comment
^ broken; it’s fatally flawed. It is increasingly clear she is misreading the majority of Americans. Her refusal to admit her Iraq vote was wrong is beyond all logical comprehension. She also needs to send Bill on vacation; somewhere without phones or the internet.
Report thisOne thing I dont like is her constant droning using the term I, I, I, I, as opposed to Obama who says WE.
More than ever it is also becoming apparent she could not defeat McCain. Too many independents wont vote for her; but, they would vote for Obama. The proof will be revealed as we go forward.
By Expat, February 10, 2008 at 8:40 pm Link to this comment
^ Bush is the worst president ever. IHO this is not relativistic; it is absolute! No amount of time will change this historic reality.
Report thisBy jackpine savage, February 10, 2008 at 8:33 pm Link to this comment
Are you serious?
Report thisBy Hank Van den Berg, February 10, 2008 at 6:01 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)
While I have no idea what Obama will actually do in office, it is so refreshing to see Democrats embrace hope over “experience.” While she constantly hypes her experience, I just cannot understand why Democrats would want to return to the dishonesty, the deception, the meanness, and the un-liberal policies of the 1990s. Obama at least provides the hope that things will change. The last thing our country needs is another Clinton “experience.”
Remember, it was the Clinton fatigue that effectively gave the White House to George W. Had the Clintons been halfway respectable and tolerable, there is no way Gore would have been within cheating distance of Bush in Florida. Jst because George W. is a total disaster does not mean we should glorify Clinton, especially now that a much more positive alternative is here now.
Report thisBy waxman, February 10, 2008 at 5:59 pm Link to this comment
One way to look at it, if Obama becomes President by strong support of 17 yr olds and up, they have to live a good share of their adult life in the mess he may create on top of the Bush mess….wouldn’t it be ironic ten years from now to look back and say Bush wasn’t so bad ???
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