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Ear to the Ground

Shades of ’29?

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Posted on Nov 1, 2007
trading floor
AP photo / Richard Drew

This picture, taken on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, pretty well sums up how the day went.

Thursday was not a good day on Wall Street, with the Dow dropping over 362 points to close at 13,567.87.  Meanwhile, the S&P 500, like the Dow, fell 2.6 percent, and the Nasdaq also took a hit, dipping 2.25 percent by day’s end.


The New York Times:

A report that consumer spending slowed in September reinforced analysts’ concerns about a broad slowdown in the fourth quarter economy, spurred by surging energy costs and a recession in the housing market.

“People are getting nervous looking to the holiday season,” said Anthony Conroy, head equity trader at BNY ConvergEx Group. “Discretionary income is going to be a little bit less. People are going to be spending less because they’re paying more for oil and mortgage payments there.”

Of the 30 Dow components, only Microsoft gained ground. Financial stocks, including JPMorgan Chase and American Express as well as Citigroup, were particularly pummeled. Manufacturers including Alcoa and General Motors were also hit hard.

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By John Borowski, November 2, 2007 at 12:49 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Dearest People: Don’t believe the time posted by our truthful Truthdig (Probably PDST) although the comments are eventually posted in their proper time order some can be as much as eleven hours delayed. This is probably because they don’t belong with the club. (Not registered) Also the same Dougie that claimed a conspiracy that Truthdig is intentionally withholding his earth shaking comments is the same Dougie to be honored with his name in RED, BLACK AND BLUE. I am impressed, god bless Dougie. Please continue with the colors it helps me know which is which.

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By Douglas Chalmers, November 2, 2007 at 8:16 am #

#111114 by Verne Arnold on 11/02 at 3:12 am: “...My question is; what has and will, keep this financial bubble from bursting?  We keep going to the brink and the thing that stops us from going over just starts the process all over again....yes...?”

So far, its been the Yen (mainly) and gold carry trades - but they are unwinding now (borrowing in Yen at a low interest rate and investing elsewhere at a higher rate in another currency) http://www.moneyweek.com/file/9351/what-is-the-carry-t rade.html and also http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2007/06/27/croesus-chro nicles-yen-oped-cz_rl_0627croesus.html etc etc.

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By RdV, November 2, 2007 at 7:47 am #

They been propping this house of cards up for some time now with fudging the numbers Enron-style. Not much longer can they pump in billions to prop it all up. Though, one has to wonder, if GAP, for example has child slaves offshore, bypassing environmental regulations, taxes, ect, while the US loses jobs, that might inflate the stock market but not the economic reality of most Americans.

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By G.Anderson, November 2, 2007 at 5:50 am #

The next year is going to be a wild ride. When gas hits $5 a gallon you can bet there will be civil unrest.

L.A. is a city that was built on cheap oil and gasoline, as it is now 90% of the people who live here are on the edge of financial ruin on any given day.

Whats coming should be obvious to everyone.

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By mdruss42, November 2, 2007 at 5:03 am #

It is sort of like the builders in Southern California I read about who now have clearance to build “trophy” houses in the backwoods and not build the exit roads needed. They are building “fireproof” houses on dead-end streets and telling people that, in the case of one of those wildfires that move with the force of a hurricane and are 300 ft tall, all they have to do is stay in their house and wait for the fire fighters.

If you believe their BS and turn into a crispy critter......Oh! Well!....That land is cleared nicely! Now what are we going to build on it? Oh, right! we wanted to try houses twice as big and expensive! And I bet “if we build it they will come”

WHEN DO YOU THINK WE WILL REACH CRITICAL MASS ON GULLIBILITY?

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By John Borowski, November 2, 2007 at 4:18 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

It is sad and at the same time amusing to see how ignorant people in Wall Street pushing around trillions of dollars around can be. To correct the massive fraud perpetrated on Wall Street since the Republicans (Aka Conservative right wingers) got control of Washington, the Feb (A cabal of foreigners) is cutting interest rates. What they don’t understand is that interest rates harm the country when you lower them. One, they make bonds less desirable to the foreigners and they are the ones that buy most of our bonds. Two, today most Americans are living from hand to mouth and as a result can’t buy US bonds. Three, bonds are the way for the government to stay solvent. Four, cutting interest rates endangers the restraints on inflation. Five, since the little guy (The smart ones) owes the big guy (The dumb one) big bucks the little “fella” can pay back cheaper dollars than he borrowed. If he borrowed 1970 dollars worth a dollar apiece, he now can pay back seventeen cents dollars also worth a “dollar a piece”. The one in this scenario that has to bend over is the big guy and that is the last thing the Fed and the ultra right want to happen. Five, cutting interest rates excessively will result in virtually every thing you buy more expensive. Almost everything that someone tried to make a buck on since we climbed down from the trees will have to increase to in price because they get paid for their something in cheap dollars. Six, if the economy is healthy, but has the blahs, cutting the interest rates a smidgen should get rid of the blahs. Seven, if the economy is very sick due to the excesses of the right, cutting the interest will only exacerbate the problems. Eight, the problems the world and Wall Street are experiencing today is because the cabal cut interest rates excessively in the past.

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By Verne Arnold, November 2, 2007 at 3:12 am #

It would seem that if we had a repeat of ‘29, it would actually be much worse.  This would be the golden opportunity for the neo-fascists, et al, to complete their work in progress.  The closer we get to ‘08 the farther away it looks.  Methinks this whole political frenzy may be much ado about nothing: The nothing being; there may be no election. 
My question is; what has and will, keep this financial bubble from bursting?  We keep going to the brink and the thing that stops us from going over just starts the process all over again....yes?

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By Paracelsus, November 1, 2007 at 10:58 pm #

The hyperflation really sapped the morale of Germans in the Weimar years. During the monetary collapse fathers were acting as procurers, using their wives and daughters as prostitutes. The need for foreign exchange was acute. Landlords were thrown into desperation. The best bargain a German family had was rent if they were under contract. Workers quit working, and stores quit stocking their shelves. Their was a boom in tourism of course. Randy Englishman stalked the cities for food and entertainment. The strange thing was that real estate would not sell, unless it was bought with foreign bank notes. Real estate is the worst thing you can own during a hyperflation. There is zero liquidity, and there are still bills that need paying. If you owned foreign bonds or trust accounts you could make out like a bandit. Some of the beneficiaries were Hamburg merchants who sold export goods down the river. They received foreign money. Unfortunately since a good many of these traders were Jews they would be remembered in the 30’s as profiting from the great inflation, which was mainly the fault of German banking officials who kept printing up notes. Thyssen, a German business man was able to consolidate German industry in this period into cartels and monopolies due to the liquidity that he was favored with by connections and hard assets. He would later become one of Hitler’s biggest political funders.

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By Douglas Chalmers, November 1, 2007 at 6:56 pm #

#111030 by Paracelsus on 11/01 at 6:20 pm: “...I think it is more the fall of 1922 in the Weimar Republic of Germany...”

Paracelsus is right but the implications are that, with the idiot Bush still in charge, it could all end up like Germany in 1939 instead, uhh. That is, wars and invasions for the greater glory of the Neocon “fatherland”!!!

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By Paracelsus, November 1, 2007 at 6:20 pm #

I think it is more the fall of 1922 in the Weimar Republic of Germany. Germany had just gotten out of the Great War with tons of debt, and reparations payments to boot. The economy was lackluster, and people’s real wages were going down. It seems that the economy was slowing down. So the gov’t decided to help but creating lots of money. My prediction is that our government will do everything to bail out the big finance businesses. On top of that we are in a war that is creating lots of debt. In addition we have trillions of unrepatriated dollars that seek purchases in American assets. There will be a rush dollars coming in to buy buildings, real estate, tollways, farm land, condos, and whatever else. WE don;t make anything so foreigners can’t spend it on anything outside of Boeing airplanes and Cray supercomputers. We will have a hyperflation similar to Argentina’s. Those houses Americans can’t afford to buy will vacation homes Chinese and Arab holders of excess dollars. We have written claim checks against ourselves, so America is going to be a gigantic sheriff’s auction. I see the dollar being worth 1/3 of 1 Euro banknote. So borrow as many dollars as you can accommodate, and buy some American Gold Eagles. In other words short sell American dollars. This will make the collapse of the Soviet ruble look tame.

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By DennisD, November 1, 2007 at 5:32 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Not to worry, the master manipulators will inflate the balloon again next week after they’ve sucked more poor bastards into the market to take the next fall.
All of a sudden “optimism” will return and all will be well. It’ll set up another round of profit taking by the legalized mafia of Wall Street and lets not forget the oil companies as well, driven by nothing but pure speculation and no regulation.

The Fed has done its part too, printing more dollars as fast as it can to bail out the banks, the big boys on the Street and financial sector but it only devalues what few dollars the average slob has and so on it goes. It’s been one sweet ride for the rich.

It’s good to know we have a government to look out for us. Damn - I bit my tongue laughing at that one.

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By johnnyfarout, November 1, 2007 at 4:19 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Like duh! All of a sudden , after all those years of “no raises” and flat income, and the crushing of the working class financial oraganizations, and the minimum wage being worth nothing...that all those hundreds of millions doing crappy in their paychecks, that it’s going to affect the Godlings of the American Empire and things aren’t going to flow along to ever fantastic Olympian Monetary Heights,!and the spiralling rich ain’t suddenly getting as rich faster then they got rich before richer , exponentially, anymore. Gee wiz.

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