Greenspan Forecasts Recession

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Posted on Feb 26, 2007

The Economist

Alan Greenspan used his powers of economic foresight Monday to caution Americans about a possible upcoming recession.  While the former Fed chairman stressed that he can’t accurately predict changes far in advance, Greenspan speculated that we may see a dip in the economy within the year.

AP
Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Monday that the American economy might slip into recession by year’s end. He said the U.S. economy has been expanding since 2001 and that there are signs the current economic cycle is coming to an end.

“When you get this far away from a recession invariably forces build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see that sign,” Greenspan said via satellite link to a business conference in Hong Kong. “For example in the U.S., profit margins ... have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle.”
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TAGS: alan greenspan american economy economics federal reserve greenspan recession

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By Hayward yabuzoff, February 28, 2007 at 6:22 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

With immigrant labor from Mexico and other Latin American countries we probably don’t have a very accurate read these days on unemployment since many of these folks don’t file for unemployment benefits.Government spending with military contractors might be what the Bush administration will turn to ,to Kensyian us out of the downturn.
Pity the planet.

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By Mad as Hell, February 27, 2007 at 7:28 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Thanks Alan.  Now tell us something a little less obvious than saying “Tomorrow the sun’s going to rised in the East.”

You deliberately caused the Dot.Com crash because you wanted to show Wall Street that YOU were the boss of the economy, not them.

You sold out on President Bush’s tax cut and surplus reduction plan even though you HAD to know it was a failure.

What ever happened to the brilliant young member of Ayn Rand’s inside circle?

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By Kellina, February 27, 2007 at 10:40 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

Of course Greenspan can predict a recession. The Federal Reserve is going to CAUSE a recession, like they caused the Depression. Greenspan kept lowering interest rates, which caused people to take on more debt than they should have. Easy credit means pain later. Now there are tons of defaults, the housing bubble is over, and we will all pay. And guess who gobbles up the property?

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By The Progressive Curmudgeon, February 27, 2007 at 10:31 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

This isn’t news but a daily fact of life for the millions of working poor, the millions of people thrown out of jobs because of downsizing and outsourcing, the untold thousands of uninsured people made poor by unexpected medical expenses, or the millions of people just scraping by from day-to-day.

Alan Greenspan had a number of faults as Federal Reserve chairman but telling the truth was not one of those faults. The current fed chair, Ben Bernacke, has yet to meet a disturbing statistic he couldn’t try spinning in Congressional testimony.

The dizzying heights of the Dow mean a lot to people of wealth; it is meaningless to someone who can’t find a job or must work two or three jobs just to get by and feed their hungry children.

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By Carl Baydala, February 27, 2007 at 1:48 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

I don’t know if I want to pay much attention to Mr. Greenspan’s prognostications. The big picture still remains.  And, that big picture includes the fact that the American economy doesn’t produce much of any consequence anymore.  Except war related things of course.  And, these war related things are paid for with borrowed money.  Borrowed money which the poor U.S. citizen must eventually pay for. And, this poor U.S. citizen is getting poorer and more numerous in number all of the time. This poor U.S. citizen is borrowing more and earning less. Yet, his job is to consume.  When you break his back, you break the system. The only thing keeping the whole thing going is war and borrowing. So, if you end the war the system fails. “Bring ‘em on” sounds pretty good under these conditions. Is Mr. Greenspan predicting the end of the war?

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By Chaseme, February 27, 2007 at 1:42 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

If I were a betting person, I’d wage a large amount on another 9/11.

Another (contrived) 9/11 will give them reason to invade Iran as well as address the recession issue.

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By Robert Hutwohl, February 27, 2007 at 12:13 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

We need to be very careful about this. Greenspan is still a spokesperson for that nefarious private bank: the Federal Reserve. Even if he is in so-called retirement. And the Federal Reserve is in some way the puppet for the Bilderbergers. Thus, this may all come true in a short period of time.

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By Christopher Robin, February 27, 2007 at 12:09 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

Reply to #55480 by citizen_pain on 2/26 at 2:32 pm….

First if Bush is true to family form….He’ll deny that the economy is even in recession…This may continue for about a year…Then he’ll blame the Democratic Congress and Senate for not giving the wealthy further tax cuts.

I remember in the middle of the 91’ recession some Bush government agency announced the good news that housing transactions were up. This was a encouraging sign in a lingering recession that just stubbornly wouldn’t respond to Greenspan’s rate cuts.

A month later they revised the numbers. It was learned they were counting bank foreclosures as a housing sales. (as it was transfer of ownership!)

Bush….doesn’t matter if it’s senior or junior they cling to the same pathetic rhetoric

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By sjh, February 26, 2007 at 11:42 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

“there are signs the current economic cycle is coming to an end.”

sounds like a recurring nightmare i have every second night.

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By Dennis D, February 26, 2007 at 11:40 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

Time to raise the corporate execs pay to counteract the recession. Isn’t that how business thinks. Like the average American can actually do anything about it anyway. A recession for a bankrupt country there must be an oxymoron there someplace.
What ever happened to the bird flu? I need something else to worry about. As if terrorism, price increases, job losses, Britney Spears, global warming and the fools running this country aren’t enough.

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By Quy Tran, February 26, 2007 at 11:12 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

When a woodden statue opens its mouth a los of people will lose their pants.

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By citizen_pain, February 26, 2007 at 7:32 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

I’m curious to see wjo the Bu$h administration blames for this possible recession.  Clinton maybe?  Or will there be another 9-11?

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By Donovan, February 26, 2007 at 7:17 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

When will we stop listening to the forecasts of the likes of Bush & Co. and pay due attention to those who know what they’re talking about without any agenda or vested interests?

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