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UK Confidential Memo: Civil War ‘Likely’ in Iraq

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Posted on Aug 3, 2006

Britain’s outgoing ambassador to Baghdad warned in a leaked confidential memo, “The prospect of a low-intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy.”


BBC:

Civil war is the most likely outcome in Iraq, Britain’s outgoing ambassador in Baghdad has warned, in a confidential memo to ministers obtained by the BBC.

William Patey, who left the Iraqi capital last week, also predicted the break-up of Iraq along ethnic lines.

He did also say that “the position is not hopeless” - but said Iraq would remain “messy and difficult” for the next five to 10 years.

The Foreign Office said it did not comment on leaked documents.

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By cognitorex, August 3, 2006 at 12:08 pm #
(Unregistered commenter)

OF COURSE IT’S A CIVIL WAR, YOU SILLY MAN
Of course we all know the expression “When they stand up, we’ll stand down.”
On or around Valentine’s Day 2007 the Shia will have sufficient forces under arms to feel confident that they can dominate, decimate and destroy the Sunnis.
This being so, they will ask/tell/demand American forces to withdraw in order that they dominate, decimate and destroy the Sunnis.
So the Shia are going to pop the question to Mr Rumsfeld, et al around Valentine’s Day, begging this question.
“Donald, you love irony and sarcasm, what exactly are you going to respond when the Islamo-nutters ask you to withdraw so that they can slaughter the secular Sunnis?” Perhaps they’ll phrase it this way.
Thanks for the guns and uniforms. And by the way, yes, this is a civil war you silly silly man, you friend of the Jews. Now leave.
Oh irony, if you don’t now protect and empower the very forces you came to disempower, then Iran (i.e. the Shia) will control Iraq and become an abutter to Israel.
When they stand up, we’re all screwed is more like it.

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By Hilding Lindquist, August 3, 2006 at 11:00 am #
(Unregistered commenter)

The public knows that Iraq is in a civil war ... a war between factions within a defined nation.

From Dictionary.com:

civil war n.

  1. A war between factions or regions of the same country.

For our leaders to keep claiming that it is not a civil war, simply diminishes their credibility in a time of war ... when credibility is primary to a call to action. (The boy who called wolf ... anybody remember that story and what it means?)

As someone said recently, Rumsfeld HAS lost his hold on reality. He’s either lying to us or to himself. And I’m afraid it’s the latter ... which is a form of insanity, isn’t it?

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