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Analysts: Iran Is Years Away From Making Bomb

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Posted on Apr 12, 2006

Tehran lacks the skills, materials and equipment to make a nuclear weapon, experts tell the New York Times.


N.Y. Times:

Analysts Say a Nuclear Iran Is Years Away
By WILLIAM J. BROAD, NAZILA FATHI and JOEL BRINKLEY

Western nuclear analysts said yesterday that Tehran lacked the skills, materials and equipment to make good on its immediate nuclear ambitions, even as a senior Iranian official said Iran would defy international pressure and rapidly expand its ability to enrich uranium for fuel.

The official, Muhammad Saeedi, the deputy head of Iran’s atomic energy organization, said Iran would push quickly to put 54,000 centrifuges on line—a vast increase from the 164 the Iranians said Tuesday that they had used to enrich uranium to levels that could fuel a nuclear reactor.

Still, nuclear analysts called the claims exaggerated. They said nothing had changed to alter current estimates of when Iran might be able to make a single nuclear weapon, assuming that is its ultimate goal. The United States government has put that at 5 to 10 years, and some analysts have said it could come as late as 2020.

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By Thomas Lague, April 13, 2006 at 2:56 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

I have read the Link thoroughly.  There is not much that is really new there.  Probably the most disturbing part of this is Secretary Rice’s threatening talk. The Bush approval rating is still slowly slipping downward. The administration is always “grooming” a justification for action that plays the ‘Commander in Chief’ card.  The number of options for action have been seriously compromised by the Iraq ‘problem’.  Intense bombing of Iran is just about it - and it is so easy. 

Iran’s president, like every other competent national leader outside the US, is certainly very aware of the “Program for the American Century”.  That puts him and the rest of the population of Iran in a desperate position.

What to do?  The poor guy is grasping at straws.  And then there is the humiliating madness of the most profligate nuclear proliferator ever - telling him he cannot refine uranium!

Allow me to make a few technical points that seems to be missing from the NY Times Analysis:

An effective nuclear weapon is not just a bag of refined uranium.  The design and construction of the implosion shell and its control function, from scratch, is an immensely complex task requiring the coordination of diverse specialties, and certainly extensive (risky) testing. The design and construction of the delivery system is certainly no walk in the park. This expertize has decades of costly blunders behind it.  They will need help.  I would be willing to buy options beyond 2020.

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By R. A. Earl, April 13, 2006 at 1:34 pm Link to this comment
(Unregistered commenter)

Not according to Jerome Corsi, PhD, author of “Atomic Iran” and other non-fiction books. On “Coast To Coast AM” with George Noory last night Dr. Corsi explained in detail how Iran “...could have a nuclear bomb ready by the end of this year, and he believes they intend to use it as part of their apocalyptic “messianic vision.” Corsi commented that US tactical nukes would be the most effective method for taking out Iran’s underground facilities. Further, he suggested that the planned nuclear test in Nevada is meant to send a message to Iran.”

(Copy from the CoastToCoastAM website). I believe there’s an error in the copy… I understand the upcoming test in Nevada is to be a NON-nuclear test, even though it’s going to be a “big bang.”

I don’t know about you, but I’m fed up to the teeth with being LIED TO by “experts” from all sides of bloody near every issue. I no longer believe any of them, which leaves me exactly where?

I’m the “nowhere man,” I guess, and you know, it’s not all that bad. I long ago disengaged from the mainstream, and now I’m so far up a tributary I couldn’t care less what the other 6 billion humanoids are up to anymore.

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