  |
 |
| |
|
|
|
DIG DIRECTOR
Sergei M. Plekhanov, an associate professor in the department of political science, York University (Toronto, Canada), was from 1988 to 1993 the deputy director of the Moscow-based Institute for the Study of the USA and Canada, and has advised the U.S. and Canadian governments on Russian affairs.
|
|
||||||||||||
The Nightmare ScenarioA Dig led by Sergei PlekhanovUPDATE #2: Check out these three new pieces relevant to nuclear proliferation:
(Action of Citizens for the total Dismantling of Nukes, Jan. 5. 2007) (Note: Article is a .pdf file.) UPDATE #1: The Nuclear “Doomsday Clock” Ticks Two Minutes Closer to Midnight
Editor’s note: A former arms control expert in the Soviet Union argues that Bush, in his obsession with North Korea and Iran’s relatively minuscule nuclear threat, has effectively ignored the much more perilous threat of Russia’s 10,000-strong nuclear arsenal. This week, the international crisis that started in September with U.S. discovery of stepped-up uranium enrichment activities in Iran is expected to trigger a nuclear war between Russia and the United States. In the past few weeks, international attempts to defuse the crisis failed, as Russia, supported by China and North Korea, increased the readiness of its armed forces and made several threatening moves. In his address to the citizens of Russia, President Valdimir Putin called the situation “grave” and expelled U.S. diplomats from Moscow. President Bush invoked the War Powers Act. A Russian reconnaissance plane collided in midair with a U.S. plane in the vicinity of U.S. ballistic missile defense installations. It is expected that in the next few days, Russia will launch a strategic nuclear strike at American command centers and armed forces. The U.S. will retaliate. This is the gist of the scenario, called Vigilant Shield ‘07, for this year’s Homeland Defense Exercise, currently being conducted by the U.S. Northern Command, according to Washington Post columnist William Arkin’s Early Warning blog (“Russia Supports North Korea in Nuclear War” and “The Vigilant Shield 07 Exercise Scenario”). War games are a peculiar genre, easy to make fun of, but the logic of this scenario merits serious attention, as it reminds us of an important reality we usually prefer to forget about. When we think about the danger of nuclear war nowadays, the mind zeros in on North Korea and Iran and stays there, preoccupied with the fact that North Korea has a few nuclear bombs, while Iran may or may not build a few of its own in the next decade. The international community is tying itself in knots trying to respond to the colossal threats to world peace and security that these two countries present. Now, the reality is that of the world’s estimated 22,000 nuclear weapons, about 21,000 belong to the U.S. and Russia, each of the two possessing nearly equal numbers and keeping about 1,000 of them ready for launching within 30 minutes. The rest are distributed in batches of a few hundred among France, the UK, China and Israel, while the new members of the “nuclear club,” India and Pakistan, possess a few dozens each (Nuclear Issues—CDI). If we should worry about the existence of nuclear weapons with their unique capacity to put an end to human life on this planet, it is odd that we overlook the thousands and peer at the murky single digits through a magnifying glass and tremble with fear. What happened to the clarity of mind that defined world thinking about nuclear weapons 20 years ago, when it was obvious that the really dangerous nukes were those in massive numbers that the Americans and the Russians trained on each other and were ready to use on a few minutes’ notice? Recognition of the danger and willingness to do something about it was then a mark of supreme statesmanship. So, when Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and U.S. President Ronald Reagan jointly proclaimed in Geneva in November 1985 that “nuclear war can never be won and should never be fought,” it resonated through the global community, generating hopes that maybe, just maybe, they really meant it and would do something real to reduce the nuclear threat. And they did. They worked out a series of agreements to bring the Cold War to a close and start the process of nuclear disarmament. After the Soviet Union’s collapse, the momentum of nuclear arms reduction continued for a decade. And then, at the dawn of the new century, just as we stopped worrying about the big bombs because they seemed to be on the way out, a Second Nuclear Age began. One of its hallmarks is that both Washington and Moscow have rediscovered the political value of nuclear weapons and are working to make sure that their still-enormous arsenals can be used, quickly, for unleashing a war that would cripple this planet beyond repair. The existing architecture of nuclear arms control, composed of dozens of international treaties and institutions created to monitor their implementation, was built in the 1960s-1990s primarily to reduce the threat of nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union. Underpinning the architecture was U.S.-Soviet strategic parity. In a very real sense, the energy of the global East-West conflict fueled the efforts to contain and regulate it. And Washington and Moscow became joint custodians of international arms control. Today, that joint enterprise seems to be on the way to Chapter 11. There are a number of reasons for this. First, there is complacency. Since the 1980s, the sense of urgency that had stimulated arms control efforts in the past has progressively weakened. The fear that the U.S. and Russia might use their fearsome arsenals gave way to a fear that the Russian economic crisis might make the post-Soviet arsenal easy prey to organized crime and terrorism. Safe dismantlement and storage of the redundant weapons and submarine reactors was becoming a more important area of U.S.-Russian cooperation than mutual reduction of the arsenals. Even more important is the impact of the new U.S.-Russian strategic disparity. The fact that both countries have continued to maintain roughly equal numbers of nuclear arms has been increasingly at odds with the real dimensions of the two sides’ international influence. While Russia reeled under the impact of its calamitous transition to capitalism and the Kremlin’s attention largely turned inward, the United States claimed the role of the world’s hegemonic power intent on remaking the global order. Dig last updated on Dec. 11, 2006Advertisement
Elsewhere: .
CommentsAre you a Truthdig member yet? Login now, or register with Truthdig.
Comment Pages:
1
»
By Pjork Cyzmorkizm, May 15, 2007 at 11:37 pm # Blizing 88 it is time for America to go the way of Rome. Americans have become a menace to the universe as much as the muslim fanatics in the ME. Time for all of them to go into oblivion.
By R.M., March 22, 2007 at 1:35 am # Re;Blizing 88 and his ‘wisdom’. What else should one expect from a nineteen year old ‘thinks-he-knows-it-all’? With luck, he’ll perhaps have long enough left to grow up should the madmen finish themselves off befor they do the rest of us.
By jeremiah, March 21, 2007 at 5:12 pm # is this photo a fake??? the man whose red stripe we see is looking into the silo. his head appears to be in front of the lid to the silo, where his head is positioned relative to the viewer at 4 o’clock on the silo lid. however, his feet are positioned at roughly 1:30 on the silo edge, thus creating a geometric improbability. fake photo or optical illusion?
By Bert, March 17, 2007 at 10:09 am # What a psychotic nut-farm of a world we live in today. Imagine what kind of moon base etc. we might have today if a lot of these countries decided to cool it with the whole nuclear business. Power? Need power? Ok, look up at the bright blue sky long about 2PM and you’ll notice this really really bright orangish-yellow thing just hanging up there, shedding all that heat and light etc. It does that for several hours per day, and if we spent a couple stealth bombers’-worth on REALLY utilizing that power, well that’d cut down on the old greenhouse gases, I think.
By TM, March 9, 2007 at 1:27 pm # Thorium should be included in any discussion of arms control because of its ability to “burn” plutonium in a nuclear reactor. Thorium cannot be used to make any additional atomic weapons.
By Bill K. Public, March 9, 2007 at 1:04 pm # re Blizing88:
By silver, March 9, 2007 at 10:30 am # To Blizing88 from the United States: Control of american foreign policy by pro israel fanatics is not myth, it is a reality. These people are loyal only to israel, and if they think it will benefit israel, they will happily set off a nuclear exchange between the usa and the russians. Always keep that in mind. America itself is living in a fools paradise, reaping the wealth of the world in exchange for freshly created green paper, in electronic form no less! The dollar is doomed, and with its death, the raging torrent of goods, oil, and other forms of wealth flowing to america will stop, forever. Ivan does not need to nuke us, we have destroyed ourselves, bled to death by the military industrial complex and the fanatical pro israel lobby.
By Matthew Dodson, March 8, 2007 at 10:58 pm # The simple truth is that the United States now has nuclear primacy throughout the world. No other nation, or combination of nations could contemplate undertaking a first strike nuclear attack on the US without suffering complete destruction. More importantly, no other nuclear power has the means to survive a first strike nuclear attack by the US with enough second strike capacity to retaliate. What does this mean? It means that the US has the power to destroy any nation or combine that seeks to challenge us. This is the only reason that we are able to hold together the tenuous sinew of our post-WWII control mechanisms over the West’s economic and political structures. Why is this possibly bad for Americans? Simply this, if another nuclear power believed that the US was about to initiate a first strike against its strategic nuclear forces, it may be forced to undertake the seeming absurd task of committing national (or international) suicide to prevent the US from destroying it without fear of retaliation. In essence, nuclear primacy makes us weaker, not stronger.
By subHuman, March 8, 2007 at 5:44 am # “We have invented the automobile, the airplane, the modern rocket (ask Goddard and Von Braun), the microwave oven, the television, the COMPUTER and INTERNET, and nuclear fisson AND nuclear fusion processes, just to name a few. All should have a stake in our nation and idea as a whole. If you turn your backs on us at this critcal point, you turn your backs on humanity. Go ahead and wish for our destruction. It will come back to haunt you forever.” That happened in “ancient” America which used to be a beacon of FREEDOM and LIBERTY. Bin Laden and his minions destroyed WTC and killed about 3000 innocent people, Bush and his minions DESTROYED America. New america is beacon of gulags, kidnapings, internal passports and other trappings of police states.
By Jeff Badura, March 7, 2007 at 8:49 pm # Comment #56566 by Blizing88 from the United States right on brother ??? the nuclear Genie will never be put back in the bottle !! Pandora’s box has been opened, and Eve bit the apple !!! so we cannot and will not be able to stop every and any backwater nation from developing Nukes one way or another one day when you factor in the endless amount of time we have ahead of us !!! only a world full of responsible democratic nations with responsible governments can prevent the world from going up in a nuclear mushroom cloud 10,20,30,50, years from now !!! and the only way we can get those responsible governments in power in the Middle-East and Sub-Sahara Africa and parts of Asia is by pro-active hands on foreign policy!! and by that i mean cold and hot wars to prevent those government now in power like Iran and N.Korea or Syria, Sudan, from getting WMD’s and to make sure when they finally do get them, they have different governments in place because we have changed there old tyrannical ones!! so for that reason after the wake up call of 9/11 we went into Iraq and for that reason Iran is next and after that there will be more to come !!! and then maybe just maybe we can prevent the nightmare scenario ??? but it mighty be too late ??? Illgramaticus Knee o’Kaun
By Blizing88 from the United States, March 3, 2007 at 3:50 pm # Ok. The jist I get from this article is that America will be so stupid as to provoke a nuclear attack from Russia. The additional rhetoric I understand is that America deserves to die from being an agressive power in the world. From the comments I see, America is a stooge of Israel and is oil hungry to the point of suicide. Also, Bush is a thug who is a diabolical genius and a blundering idiot at the same time. People, whoever you are, get a clue. This surely isn’t an academic forum due to the retarded comments I see displayed here. I hope this isn’t a representation of the world, for your sake. The United States of America produces half of the entire world’s food supply. We have invented the automobile, the airplane, the modern rocket (ask Goddard and Von Braun), the microwave oven, the television, the COMPUTER and INTERNET, and nuclear fisson AND nuclear fusion processes, just to name a few. All should have a stake in our nation and idea as a whole. If you turn your backs on us at this critcal point, you turn your backs on humanity. Go ahead and wish for our destruction. It will come back to haunt you forever.
By Trueman, February 24, 2007 at 8:50 pm # The Sov’s could have a million warheads. No big deal, they are not going to use them. N. Korea same. A radical Islamic regime? They get one, they are going to use it. You read it here first. And peak oil? Come on. We will grow gas out of plants (bio-fuel). Invest today and be a bio-fuel billionaire in the future. Take off your tinfoil hats people. Get your heads in the game. “The stuff you own end up owning you.” Tyler Durden
By A.Akhundov, February 17, 2007 at 7:59 am # Yes indeed Dina. I think the “old Soviet Union” should rear its “ugly” head again… Good. Especially when I remember how the supreme global Anglo leaders, Ronald Reagan and “Lady” Thatcher, took the world for a ride when they fought the “evil empire” from a very righteous “moralistic” standpoint. Now it turns out America is doing MOST of the things it held against the USSR, the excuses they used to justify their cold war fight: going towards totalitarianism by curtailing their citizens’ rights, spying on their populations, trying to dominate the world and its resources, waging war against poor nations, the sordid Guantanamo Bay business… Moreover, they are doing things the USSR didn’t do - such as their support corrupt third world ruling proxy elites and regimes, which help them in their plunder.
By William Jorgensen, February 16, 2007 at 3:32 pm # dieboldcracy, said, “Peak Oil is a fraud. It was hypothesized by an employee of Shell and was supposed to have already happened 4 years ago. The war isn’t with Russia, it’s with China.” ************************************************ Peak-oil production most likely occurred in August of 2005 as production has not risen above this all-time high (demand-destroying price hikes have caused a correlating drop in demand from poorer countries that are helping to retain supply, for the moment). Russia doesn’t need a war to defeat America it just has to wait around until America can no longer afford to wage war!
By Dina, February 16, 2007 at 10:47 am # The old Soviet Union is rearing her ugly head.
By vampares, February 16, 2007 at 7:07 am # That silo cap doesn’t even look rusted.
By who me?, February 12, 2007 at 6:17 pm # I think Putin should meet with Bush, sans trousers, to prove to each other once and for all, who’s got the bigger weapons.
By Bert, February 10, 2007 at 9:27 pm # I have a great idea, use all that stuff to help build a bigger, better space station.
By Jon B, February 8, 2007 at 10:36 pm # HL - what’s you definition of and which countries belong to “civilized world”? Financial Times’s polling result shows the US is the greatest threat to the world, or civilized world if you will. Peace to all. To “christians”, do remember god’s commandment
By HL, February 8, 2007 at 2:01 pm # Amazing- and telling- of the mindset of many here that they wish to take the US to task over all of this, rather than the 9/11 terrorists, Saddam violating a decade+ of UN sacntions and mandates, and Iran proceeeding w/ nuclear ambitions in violation of intl. protocols. But to some, their partisan hatred of our President, and trumpeting that hatred at any convenience, trumps looking for faul where it truly belongs, w/ the Islamist extremists who foment so much of the violence in our world, and by their actions sadly necessitate response by the civilized world.
By Chris Baron, February 7, 2007 at 6:16 pm # Yes, the possibility of nuclear war is incredibly scary....so are some of these comments.
By Jon B, February 7, 2007 at 4:28 pm # Russia sharply increases its military spending. Is it in response to US’s half trillion defense budget and an increasing number of military bases around Russia?
By Wayne Smyer, February 5, 2007 at 5:07 am # As FDR once said! “The only thing we have to fear are George “The Chimp” Bush and Dickie “F-You” Cheney” BE AFRAID, BE VERY AFRAID!
By kol klink, February 5, 2007 at 5:02 am # I hear dire predictions about ‘the world coming to an end’ as a result of all out nuclear war. The earth is not going to end, but humans might meet an end that they bring upon themselves. The earth will go right on cycling through ice ages, hot ages, super volcanoes, strikes by objects from space and probably many other disasters that we have failed to find to this point in time. An all out nuclear war may cause the wipe out of humans and most other species on the earth but the microbes will begin to surface from miles below the earth’s surface eventually, when conditions are right. Then evolution will begin anew and the species that emerge will be those that are adapted to the conditions that prevail at the time. As humans, we have had an opportunity to do and be something really special. We flubbed the opportunity and have no one to blame but ourselves. We are not an ‘exceptional’ species no more than America is an ‘exceptional’ country. When we began believing our own press and thinking we were exceptional, our future as a species was unavoidable. Hubris, mixed with nuclear weapons, is a killer.
By Jim Yell, February 1, 2007 at 9:27 am # No the comment stating Israel is most immediate nuclear threat is wrong. The conspiring by Israel agents and our intellegence organizations and this administration, together are very un-nerving. Pakistan, India & North Korea are un-nerving, all less for what they can do, than what may be a self-fullfiling threat made by any or a group of these. For myself I feel that nuclear power plants are much more immediate danger. Why? They creat huge radioactive waste. Humanity has never shown itself able to be responsible in handling toxic material and any of this getting into the environment is too much. It has already happened several times, maybe more if we knew. Thirty thousand years for radiation to degrade is too long for even one accident. Nuclear accident thru mal-manipulation of military response and politics could happen. I would have more respect for Ike, if instead of giving us the parting gift of warning against Military/Industrial Complex, had used some of his 8 years in office to do something about it.
By Reid, January 31, 2007 at 3:31 pm # Global warming is “frozen out”
By Jonas South, January 29, 2007 at 8:21 am # If a bona fide opinion survey were taken, and people all around the world were asked, “Which country most threathens its enemies with its nuclear arsenal?” The answer would undoubtedly be Israel. Anyone concerned about the doomsday clock can hardly afford to ignore facts.
By A.Akhundov, January 28, 2007 at 2:30 pm # I don’t think there is much America (and its NATO cohorts) can do against Russia’s nuclear weapons, especially in the present global situation where the US is on the rampage and its devilish intentions are crystal clear to all. No doubt since its 1991 Cold War “unipolar” triumph, America has tried to throttle Russia by saddling it with governments comprising of subservient robber cartels and oligarchic mafias, but thankfully - for the sake of the future welfare of the world and of all humanity -Vladimir Putin, ex-KGB colonel that he is, has successfully overcome many of those hirelings in key sectors - like nationalising Russia’s crucial petrochemical assets; and he has taken advantage of the high oil prices of the last two years and now Russia is staging a comeback, much to American and NATO dismay. Russia has also openly and successfully demonstrated its “gas supply weapon” policy to its European clients, thus conveying its intentions that it is prepred to go to great lengths to fend off the so-called Western manouvers to control the world. After all, we do know that America and its underlings’ prime motive for dominating the world is to secure its main oil reserve areas, so as to fuel their decadent “high living standards” and unsustainable, environmentally damaging lifestyles which they have been living at the cost of the progress of others. Those in Russia are not fools, and they certainly know what is coming… they are just watching patiently, awaiting the outcome. THANK GOD FOR RUSSIAN NUCLEAR MISSILES! MAY THEY “LIVE LONG”!
By why is this suddenly topical and relevant?, January 25, 2007 at 1:12 pm # with all the shit that’s going down, this nuclear arms crapola is just a major distraction. Isn’t this kind if thing the reason we went to war in Iraq in the first place?
By Tom Wheatley, January 24, 2007 at 9:08 pm # “Wars and rumors of wars” .That is what JESUS said would be one of the signs of his soon return.Jesus said,"Let not your hearts be troubled believe in God believe also in me.behold I go to prepare a place for you.In my fathers house are many mansions.Trust that he is coming soon, believe that he died for your sins and you nees not fear at all!Any questions? Go to notreligion.com
By Boggs, January 23, 2007 at 5:42 am # Can’t explain why I’m not trembling with fear.
By boogabooga, January 19, 2007 at 2:01 pm # a war with Iran would be economic suicide for this country. But that wouldn’t matter, as long as certain people were still getting rich off it.
By what's true? what's 'truth'? yours or mine?, January 19, 2007 at 1:39 pm # it is probably a good thing to remind ourselves of the other nuclear superpower out there. Maybe the war-mongers here will pull their head in. The ‘truth’ in Truthdig represents something to aim for, it’s not a given.
By dick, January 19, 2007 at 7:39 am # Not to worry. Israel is in control here and all is going according to plans: Securing the Realm, and Project for the New American Century, both prepared by the same neocons who are acting in Israel’s best interests, and manage Bush, Congress, and the media, with support from 12 million religious fanatics anxious for Armageddon .
By i am schizophrenic, January 18, 2007 at 3:35 pm # but somehow more sane than the people who allowed this situation to occur. Science is not altruistic, because not all scientists are altruistic, most of them are driven by the need or desire for money, some of them by a desire for fame, others have a God complex. Other people who have money and power will use them as tools. And this is what happens. After so many years of passionate work, Oppenheimer famously lamented the nuclear bomb’s killing capacity. What a frickin’ idiot.
By who moderates the comments on this site?, January 17, 2007 at 11:37 pm # boy are you lenient!
By you are going insane!, January 17, 2007 at 4:24 pm # The US is the only nation to use a nuclear weapon on another nation (that didn’t have one to send back) and we currently have a loose cannon running this country at the beck and call of an army of greedy arms manufacturers… and you think we should worry about Russia? Where the hell is our moral credibility, what do we bring to the negotiating table? We would be seen as liars, and they’d be right, and they would lie to us in return. Fix THIS country! Then worry about foreign enemies.
By headf*ck annie, January 17, 2007 at 4:17 pm # Diplomacy? Negotiations? Newsflash, people: Putin is not Gorbachev.
By look into my eyes, January 17, 2007 at 4:14 pm # and please tell me US is not going invade Iran. I live in Tehran. I do not like my goverment, but look what happened in Irak. Young girls like me are raped and killed by US soldiers and fathers are killed just for being men and Iraki. We need help to make things better, but not in war.
By They exist, they can't be unmade., January 17, 2007 at 2:02 pm # Lessening the stockpiles to allow a more efficient inventory is probably a good idea, but there can never be a world without nuclear weapons. If there was, one or two would pop up in the wrong hands somewhere and it’s all over, rover.
By Wallace Carr, January 17, 2007 at 1:29 pm # The world owes its survival to the old men in Moscow who saw the horrors of war up close and personal in wwii, and chose to back down to the overly aggressive americans rather than plunge the world into those horrors again. Today those old men are gone, america is lead by zionist scum interested only in what is good for israel, and russia is lead by kgb thugs. I would bet on the mushroom clouds blooming real soon. One W88 warhead has more explosive power than all bombs used in all wars past combined, including the atomic bombs used on Japan.
By this is a waste of space, January 17, 2007 at 1:27 pm # Unless you are counting on Russia to impose sanctions against itself through the UN, or you really really want to invade either Iran or Russia, maybe the US should look after home politics first, because there’s some crooked warhawks pulling the strings at home, nevermind over there.
By BUD, January 17, 2007 at 7:56 am # The US doesn’t have the military strength to take on Russia. Like any bully, it prefers weaker victims. Check this site to see what I mean.
By trb, January 17, 2007 at 5:13 am # Bush will bomb Iran and he is already setting up Congress to give their approval. Here’s how he will do it: There will be an Iranian fishing boat that sails near one of our task force ships in the Persian Gulf. Our navy was hoping for this “provocation” and will destroy the boat. Bush will go to congress and say this is an attack by Iran against US forces. It will be a Gulf of Tonkin look-alike resolution that escalated our war in Vietnam. Congress will then give Bush the go-ahead to attack Iran. Cheney and the Chimp will pat each other on the back - mission accomplished.
By and who has the US been selling weapons to lately?, January 16, 2007 at 8:53 pm # i had a Russian Blue cat once. It was very untrustworthy.
By William, January 16, 2007 at 5:39 pm # The race is on between peak-oil and peak-debt as to how the US is really brought down, of course there’s always the nuclear option version of demand-destruction to add some interest to the casual observer. Not that any nuclear war could ever be won by anyone - a fact that escapes most people. The following drop in commodity needs might extend a crude version of modern civilisation for a decade or two, but probably not.
By This Old Brit, January 16, 2007 at 2:20 pm # And speaking of Russia - I got this from Moscow today.
By Fermat's Last Theorem has been solved, January 13, 2007 at 10:49 pm # The only nuclear missiles we need to fear are those in the hands of lunatics, or otherwise rational people who believe in the second coming of a prophet, in the apocalypse, in glorious martyrdom for themselves and their children and hellfire and oblivion for the unbelievers. i.e. some of those devoutly dogmatic literal interpreters of the Abrahamic faiths.
By assad's market, January 12, 2007 at 3:37 pm # Military attack on iran is a fantasy, nothing more. That’s why it hasn’t happened. Add Your Comment |
|
||||||||||||
Del.icio.us
Digg
Facebook
Reddit
StumbleUpon
Yahoo
Jump to Comments
Email
Print
Share
Ma.gnolia
Newsvine
Bazaar|Podcast|About Us|Contact Us|User Agreement|Privacy Policy|Comment Policy
Copyright © 2008 Truthdig, L.L.C. All rights reserved.
COMMENT TOOLS:
Hide comments
Show comments
Comment on this article